Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory

There has always been a critical, emancipatory tradition within futures studies. Although those voices can still be heard, there has been a growing tendency for futures studies to be driven by more utilitarian needs in business and government. Whilst it is positive that futures thinking and research is increasingly valued within corporate and policy-making settings, much of that work appears to lack genuine plurality of worldviews and interests.The paper traces the changing contexts for futures research over the past 25 years. It argues that futures research needs to be viewed as part of the re-politicisation – in the Habermasian sense – of technocratic decision-making. It suggests that there are three particular reasons for revisiting the need for criticality in futures research: the increasing acknowledgement of systemic interrelatedness (ecological, social, economic), a growth in the forward-looking socio-economic paradigm that permeates both business and policy, and the challenge of theory development. Drawing on social theory and futures research, we suggest three pathways for revived critical futures research: socio-technical practices, future-oriented dialectics, and socio-economic imaginaries. As a result, the paper calls for development in futures studies that would dialectically integrate and overcome the dichotomy between instrumentalisation and (critical) theorising that can be currently understood as somewhat antagonistic. In order to find a balance between these antagonistic dimensions, futures research should be more engaged in enabling critique and revealing assumptions and interests.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

Transforming teachers’ temporalities: Futures in an Australian classroom

There is much rhetoric in education about the ways in which students are prepared for ‘the future’. The notion of the future in Australian education is dominantly singular, vague and abstract. This paper describes research which investigates changes which occur within teacher practices, enacted curriculum and student learning. The case study at the centre of this research focuses on a primary school south-east of Melbourne, Australia, which is internationally acknowledged as ‘innovative and leading’ in ‘educating for the future’. Initially, it was apparent that this notion of the future was assumed, and these specific teachers had given little thought to what that future looked like, or how that related to students’ learning requirements. As a result of professional learning, the teachers underwent temporal transformation, in integrating explicit futures dimensions within their curriculum. Arising from this research were significant key findings which highlight the need for a reconceptualisation of the ways in which curriculum and pedagogy are enacted in regards to notions of multiple futures. Furthermore, it generates renewed calls for futures perspectives to be addressed explicitly within education. Importantly it highlights a deficit in current teacher thinking about their roles in ‘educating for the future’.     

On applied science, prediction and contingency

Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequently the use and impact of futures research, since this will set a cyclic process between theory and practice in motion. An important condition for ensuring this is to increase the amount of empirical research concerning the way futures research is carried out in real life; 2) a reappraisal of predicting the future: although history has shown that predicting the future is difficult, stating that, in the future, predictions will not be a part of futures research is in itself a prediction. In fact, predictions can serve as valuable starting points for discourses on the future; 3) the context of futures research: futures researchers should be more aware of the context in which they do their work. This can significantly enhance the usability of futures research but it also means that futures researchers should become more flexible in applying their methods and processes.     

Ethical dilemmas: Teaching futures in schools

Educational policy is implicitly futures oriented, yet in most instances fails to engage learners with explicit futures tools and concepts at a school level. Futures studies in education, or futures education has the potential to reposition learning as purposeful and mobilizes the lives of participants by connecting the curriculum of schools with the multifaceted futures of learners. This is a complex task within the tensions often existing between: the cultural role of a school, the expectations of a society, the expertise of teachers, and the increasingly diverse needs of learners (Bateman, 2012). It is between the tensions of these things that the ‘ethical’ issues of what is taught, or omitted as content in a classroom and the consequences of these choices are evident.This paper highlights ethical and moral dilemmas, as they were apparent in two futures education projects. In the first study, the teachers discuss the inherent limitations of offering a broader and more futures oriented curriculum. In the second study, teachers reflect upon their students’ anxiety with regards to futures images as they are interrogated within a curriculum study. Each of these studies highlights the ethical challenges that arise, when possible, preferable and probable futures are developed as part of learning in school settings, which are culturally and demographically diverse.Tirri and Husu (2002) highlight the ethical dilemmas, which emerge in classrooms around the world, based on conflicts in values and competing intentions between key stakeholders. In the studies which contribute to this discussion, there is evidence to suggest that futures thinking causes conflict within an individual's perception of how the world should be, or their worldview as a result of futures imagining which goes beyond what is taken for granted, or is an assumed future eventuality. In the same way, Carrington, Deppeler, and Moss (2010) argue that all curriculum choices about what is taught (or not taught) in a classroom reflect an ethical decision made by a teacher, with regards to what is foregrounded for learning and what is omitted.It is crucial to re-examine the role of a school in educating students for their futures, as opposed to educating students with an aim of furthering governmental agendas. More significantly, however, as this paper highlights, it is exploring the boundaries of what is acceptable or unacceptable, appropriate or inappropriate to teach in a classroom, given the changing diversities of schools and education systems throughout the world.     

Early detection,warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies

This paper marks a milestone in a six year research cycle on weak signal analysis and early detection issues in futures studies. While providing a broad view and discussing a variety of contributions on this topic, the aim of this article is to offer a more constructivist approach to early detection studies than has been typically the case so far. The article starts by positioning the underlying problem of weak signals within the broader field of futures studies. The second section examines the Ansoffian tradition, first on the basis of Ansoff's own contributions, then through key enhancements offered by scholars working in the same perspective. The third section develops the arguments for a constructivist critique of the Ansoffian tradition as a way to renew and enrich scientific debate. The fourth and final section presents the main open issues where research, case studies, methods and applications still need to make significant progress in the vast domain of weak signal analysis and early detection.

“I have never doubted the truth of signs, Adso; they are the only thing man has with which to orient himself in the world. What I did not understand was the relation among signs.” William of Baskerville, in the Name of the Rose¹

     

Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.     

Judgement research in policy analysis

A primary purpose of futures research is to assist the formulation of policy; as such, futures research is an instrument of policy analysis. A parallel field of research in the behavioural sciences-judgement research-is also potentially an important instrument of policy analysis. Practitioners and consumers frequently overlook both the extent to which futures research is based heavily on judgements, and, therefore, the extent to which it would benefit from incorporating the principles and techniques of judgement research. This article explores the relationships between futures research and judgement research (and their links with policy analysis, and planning) and discusses the gains to policy analysis and formation-notably in the creative aspect of policy invention -from a linking of, and interaction between, the two areas. Two recent developments in applied research, symmetrical linkage systems (judgement research) and interactive cross-impact modelling (futures research), are used as vehicles for the discussion ; and the practical value of the behavioural sciences approach is indicated in a discussion of group decision making.     

Pathways to integral perspectives

An integral approach to futures inquiry has been described as the next distinct tradition. That form of inquiry is predicated upon the use of an integral perspective. This paper explores the nature of such a perspective and also relates recent research that sheds light upon that perspective's development. It also suggests methodological pathways that can be explored in order to evoke an integral approach to futures inquiry.     

Feral futures: Zen and aesthetics

Studies of ‘futures’ have hitherto focused on those that are predictable and ‘tame’, and on those that are unpredictable and ‘wild’. Here we consider a new class, the ‘feral’; which are expectations that things might be made worse by risk-based actions. The type case is the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island, where operatives assumed that what was unfolding was of a sort described in their manual, and discovered too late that responses based on that assumption were making the situation worse. In this paper we review the idea of ‘feral’ and how it applies to futures, and discuss the different modes of engagement (or non-engagement) with feral futures. To make feral futures manageable, we suggest two ideas from other spheres of activity. Zen is a practice and philosophy which enables us to drop our preconceptions and thereby to respond to emerging, unprecedented situations. Aesthetics articulates a particular way to sense and appreciate realities intuitively, again enabling a direct response. The combination of Zen and aesthetics with scenario practice in the tradition of Pierre Wack provides a promising mode of response to emerging feral futures.     

Forecasts or fallacies: Two issues for futures research on the internet

This paper explores the idea of futures research online, and considers whether two issues in particular — high rates of change, and complexity — pose a significant problem to the success of internet-orientated futures research. In particular, these two potential problems will be considered from the perspective of new developments within futures research frameworks and methodologies.     

Revisiting a futures studies project—‘Reflections on 1985’

In 1962, a futures studies group was launched in France on behalf of the Commissariat au Plan, reporting directly to the French Prime Minister. The group aimed at ‘studying, on the basis of future-shaping elements, what should be known right now about 1985 France’. This paper revisits that important and original futures studies project, which encapsulated efficiently the dominant values and beliefs of a Western country at a turning point of its political and economical history.In its first part, this note recalls the French context in 1964, the frame of mind, and methodology of the group. Then the main findings of the Group 1985 are outlined, be it evolutions that inspired hope (a wealthier economy, improved living conditions), and also fears attached to the future (individual may face new dependencies and higher pressures, while some shortages could appear), which should be averted thanks to active policies in the fields of education, European unity, scientific research, or public administration reform. Last, this paper analyses both the strengths and weaknesses of the Group 1985 report, drawing lessons that remain valuable for contemporary studies on the future of a whole country.In 1962, Pierre Massé, then Commissaire au Plan, set up a futures study Group chaired by Pierre Guillaumat. The Group published in 1964 a report entitled ‘Reflections on 1985’ which was a stimulating futures studies work. ALEPH thought fruitful to revisit this document.     

Movements toward holism in futures inquiry

This article takes up the question of the various movements toward holism in futures inquiry. The Ken Wilber inspired integral futures, developed by Richard Slaughter and others, and put forth as the most comprehensive approach to-date, is critiqued and assessed. While Wilber's integral and the variant it has inspired in futures represent significant innovations, it also contains the tendency to un-necessarily close down, lock out or to sub-ordinate alternative conceptions of holism, what I term ‘Wilber-ism’. Wilber's ‘theory of everything’ and integral futures are analysed, re-assessed and re-situated in the context of the alternative approaches to holism that exist. What emerges is a rich view of potential genealogies and ontogenies as movements toward holism. One variant from the action research tradition, which I call ‘integrative foresight’, is put forward as an example of an alternative. The article concludes by proposing a process of dynamic dialogue between diverse conceptions of holism, which can at once honour the great diversity of approaches, while likewise continuing the journey of creating shared meaning and common understandings of the complex contexts in which futures inquiry works.     

Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives

This paper focuses on the cyclical and iterative processes of action research and their usefulness in enabling participants in futures work to expand their images of futures. The author has been developing a participatory method of scenario development, based on action research, using cycles within cycles, thus allowing multiple opportunities for reflection and reperception. Because people can find it difficult to perceive their potential futures, to examine possibilities from different angles can clarify problems and help participants develop their reactions to various futures. This paper presents a case study of the new method, working through a series of cycles with a credit union, arguing that a cycles-within-cycles-within-cycles process has the potential to help make explicit the concealed and subconscious forces affecting the future of the participants' social entity.     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

Futures studies: From individual to social capacity

Futures study is not yet well established at the social level. Given the unstable conditions of the late 20th century, and the challenging outlook of the early 21st, this is a serious oversight. The article considers how futures studies can be progressively developed through five distinct layers, or levels. First is the natural capacity of the human brain/mind system to envisage a range of futures. Second, is the clarifying, enlivening and motivating role of futures concepts and ideas. Third are analytic gains provided by futures tools and methods. Fourth are a range of practical and intellectual applications, or contexts. When each of these levels functions in a coordinated way, grounds for the emergence of futures studies at the social level can clearly be seen. The article concludes with a brief summary of a preferred future which would arguably be within reach if futures studies were to progress along such a path from individual to social capacity.     

The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing

For a long time, the correlation between random sources has never been considered in carbon futures pricing, which virtually exists. We document the presence of high correlation between variations in convenience yields of carbon futures with different maturities, whose essence is correlation between random sources. Correlation of random sources arises from the long coverage of convenience yield of carbon emission spot and the complementarity in expiration between carbon futures with different maturities. Since if random sources are correlated will significantly affect the dynamics of convenience yield and finally affect futures prices, we introduce quantum field method to account for the impact of this correlation on futures prices, and proposes the correlation between random sources extended HJM convenience yield model (CRS-HJM-CYM). Empirical results indicate CRS-HJM-CYM performs better than traditional model owing to the role of correlation, which means the correlation between random sources is a pivotal factor in carbon futures pricing.     

Intraday Returns and the Frequency of Trading at the Ask on the Sydney Futures Exchange: A Research Note

This article documents and provides explanations for intraday patterns in returns for the Share Price Index (SPI) futures contract traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Consistent with overseas futures markets research, a positive and significant overnight return is documented. Unlike overseas futures markets, we find little evidence of an end of day price rise. Our evidence suggests that overnight returns for the SPI contract are largely driven by the way returns are typically measured, which ignores the fact that there is a significantly greater frequency of sellers at the market close and buyers at the start of the day. These patterns are consistent with hedging behaviour by futures traders with long positions in the underlying stock.