震动楼市

汶川大地震对房地产市场产生了哪些方面的影响?影响究竟会有多大?它给市场带来了什么样的变数?未来的走势和格局又将如何?通过深度观察可知,地震给楼市带来的影响即使不是直接的破坏,也必将是深层次的调整     

Price discrimination in the housing market

There is little credible evidence on whether price discrimination exists in the housing market. Using a large sample of single-family home sales from Florida where both the race of the seller and buyer are known, we present evidence using the traditional and Harding et al. [HRS, Harding, J.P., Rosenthal, S., Sirmans, D.F., 2003. Establishing bargaining power in the market for existing homes. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85, (1) 178–188] approaches to empirical estimation. Omitted variable bias is found to plague the traditional approach. Results from following the HRS approach indicate that price discrimination exists by whites and Hispanics against blacks and Asians. Price discrimination against blacks is restricted to non-majority black neighborhoods and is smaller in magnitude in neighborhoods containing younger and more educated homeowners.     

The housing market

The housing market has gained further momentum with activity accelerating and prices continuing to increase strongly on all measures in Q3. This trend is expected to continue, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting strong growth in new buyer enquiries and – to a lesser extent – in new instructions…     

The housing market

The recovery in the housing market has continued, with house prices picking up on all measures over the past few months. And there are encouraging signs of underlying strength, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting healthy growth in both new buyer enquiries and new instructions…     

Forecasting the US housing market

The recent housing market boom and bust in the United States illustrates that real estate returns are characterized by short-term positive serial correlation and long-term mean reversion to fundamental values. We develop an econometric model that includes these two components, but with weights that vary dynamically through time depending on recent forecasting performances. The smooth transition weighting mechanism can assign more weight to positive serial correlation in boom times, and more weight to reversal to fundamental values during downturns. We estimate the model with US national house price index data. In-sample, the switching mechanism significantly improves the fit of the model. In an out-of-sample forecasting assessment the model performs better than competing benchmark models.     

房地产市场走向分化

今年上半年,房价总水平出现高位涨势趋缓的迹象,整个行业面临全面调整,预计下半年房价涨幅将稳步回落,市场将稳步发展今年以来,房地产市场延续着去年末销售量下降的状况,市场继续低迷,未来走势如何,社会各界十分关注。关键是应该认     

Dynamics of the housing market

This paper deals with the derivation of the rent values of the standing stock of the housing market with a continuous vintage approach, under malleable stock and homogeneous population assumptions, and under dynamic conditions: population and income growth, technological obsolesence, and a continuous upward shift and elasticity change in the supply function. The core of the model is a Volterra nonlinear integral equation of the second kind, and results are shown in relation to existence, uniqueness and stability. Finally, a spatial-dynamic model is specified by a Fredholm-Volterra nonlinear integral equation, framing the analysis of the housing filtering process with the Burgess-Hoyt concept of directional growth in urban development.     

住宅销售市场仍大有可为

2008年以来,突然的市场转向使很多房地产企业措手不及,很多人把市场回暖的希望寄托在宏观经济周期和政府的救市政策上.但在经济下行周期就只有撤出房地产市场这一条路吗?房地产业没有了政府的政策救市,是不是只能坐以待毙?……     

Racial discrimination in the Boston housing market

Recent studies suggest that price differentials between what whites and blacks pay for housing are largely a function of changes in supply and demand in the two submarkets. These studies, however, estimate models that assume a unified housing market. As a result, imputed prices of housing attributes cannot vary with location, and the analyses obscure important racial price differentials. Based on a more realistic and complex housing market theory, the model described in this paper indicates that housing prices are substantially higher in the ghetto and transition areas than in white areas, and that within the same area blacks must pay more than whites for equivalent housing.     

Predicting turning points in the housing market

We identify leading indicators of changes in the housing market and compare their performance in predicting turning points. Being able to predict turning points is of importance to the home building industry, homeowners, and makers of housing policy. Our leading indicators include the Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Market Index, two of its forward looking components, and an index of consumer sentiment regarding purchasing a home. Our comparison tests include Granger causality and a Bayesian predictor of the probability of a turning point. We find that the measure of consumer sentiment performs relatively well compared to the HMI in predicting home permits, housing starts, and new home sales.     

Cyclical fluctuations in the Israeli housing market

While public construction in Israel is of a magnitude sufficient to exert effective housing market countercyclical influence, it has often had the opposite effect. This phenomenon is viewed with particular concern, given that economywide recessions of past decades have been precipitated by significant downturns in the construction industry. This paper describes specification and estimation of a simultaneous-equation structural model of the Israeli housing market. Results of the analysis indicate the importance of disaggregation by public and private sectors as well as the significance of mortgage availability and price, substitution and income effects, disruptions caused by war and the like in an explanation of cyclical phenomenon.     

住宅细分市场差异明显

2008年,中国房地产市场遭遇了十年来最大一次寒流.国家统计局数据显示,2008年1～12月,全国商品房销售面积6.2亿平方米,同比下降19.7%.其中,商品住宅销售面积下降20.3%.……     

深圳市场尚在调整中

今年6月,深圳市房地产研究中心发布了一份市场分析报告,被舆论普遍认为是在呼吁政府救市.其实市场本身是不需要救的,它有一个自我调节过程.……     

住宅市场产品分化加速

2009年,国内住宅产品市场发展将大致向两端分化:一种是政府主导的保障性住房,另一种是开发商主导的个性化高端产品.这种变化主要取决于当前市场结构和开发模式的转变.……     

韩国住房市场中的政府干预

回顾了韩国住房市场政府干预的背景,总结了其政策目标、政策工具及政府干预的框架体系.     

楼市回暖任重道远

楼市什么时候回暖?笔者认为,眼下的楼市,回暖并不是开发商或购房者单方所能决定的,一定是双方博弈的结果,而两种力量的平衡点就是楼市底部。一个行业的健康发展,需要买卖双方的共赢。然而,在房地产行业,多数开发商往往最大限度地把升值预期套现,拿走利润而把风险留给购房者(尤其是商业地产和投资型住宅)。这种行为导致了楼市买卖双方的对立。所以,当楼市低迷、     

Commodity chain systems and the housing market

A system of gross substitutes, referred to here as a chain system, is analyzed and the results applied to the housing market. The stability conditions and comparative statics properties of the system are examined in detail. One of the results is that a specific numerical magnitude is of special importance to the system's stability and comparative statics behavior. Implications of the analysis for the housing market and for government policy are discussed.