Imperfect Competition and Growth with Entrepreneurial Risk

Abstract. This paper analyzes an overlapping generations endogenous growth model of occupational choice under risk in a two-sector economy with intermediate and final goods. Agents choose between business ownership in the monopolistically competitive intermediate goods industry or employment as a worker in this sector. Firm-specific profits are stochastic. Occupational choice under risk endogenizes the number of firms and products in the intermediate goods industry. The analysis shows that economic performance and growth both depend on the entrepreneurship rate and are inefficiently low compared with an economy with perfect markets for pooling risks. Monopolistic competition partly offsets the negative income effects from a too low level of entrepreneurial risk-taking.     

Factor Substitution, Income Distribution and Growth in a Generalized Neoclassical Model

Abstract. We analyze a generalized neoclassical growth model that combines a normalized CES production function and possible asymmetries of savings out of factor incomes. This generalized model helps to shed new light on a recent debate concerning the impact of factor substitution and income distribution on economic growth. We show that this impact relies on both an efficiency and a distribution effect, where the latter is caused by the distributional consequences of an increase in the elasticity of substitution. While the efficiency effect is always positive, the sign of the distribution effect depends on the particular savings hypothesis. If the savings rate out of capital income is substantial so that a certain threshold value is surpassed, the efficiency effect dominates and higher factor substitution accelerates the accumulation of capital and works as a major engine of growth.     

Nonstationarity and Stochastic Stability of Relative Income Clubs

The recent literature on “convergence” of cross‐country per capita incomes has been dominated by the two hypotheses of “global convergence” and “club‐convergence,” pertaining to limits of estimated income distribution dynamics. Utilizing a new measure of “stochastic stability,” we establish two stylized facts regarding short‐ and medium‐term distribution dynamics. The first is non‐stationarity of transition dynamics, in the sense of changing transition kernels, and the second is emergence, disappearance, and re‐emergence of a “stochastically stable” middle income group. This middle income group emerges as the gap between rich and poor clubs gets larger, and it changes the dynamics of transition to and from the rich and poor clubs, eventually narrowing the gap between the poor and rich as the middle club vanishes. Analyzing the stochastic stability of middle‐income groups is thus a first step toward understanding higher‐order dynamics of narrowing or widening of the gap between rich and poor countries.     

Risk and intertemporal substitution: Livestock portfolios and off-take among Kenyan pastoralists

Most decisions involve variability in two dimensions: uncertainty across states of nature and fluctuations over time. The stakes involved in tradeoffs between these variability dimensions are especially high for the poor who have difficulty managing and recovering from shocks. We assume Epstein and Zin recursive preferences and estimate risk aversion and intertemporal substitution as distinct preferences using data from Kenyan herders. Results suggest that the assumption implicit in additive expected utility models that relative risk aversion (RRA) is the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is flawed. Specifically, our RRA and EIS estimates are consistent with a preference for the early resolution of uncertainty, which we believe is driven importantly by the instrumental value of early uncertainty resolution. This same preference pattern is consistent with asset smoothing in response to a dynamic asset threshold.     

Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship

We study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs, public education and social security. We do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs. We show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non-monotonic effect on growth. When the initial level of social security funding is low, as is the case in most poor economies, then its increase will enhance growth. When its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries, we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality. These results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget. We also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget (holding the budget composition fixed) are characterized by similar non-monotonic growth-inequality relationships.     

On the Mechanics of Economic Convergence

Abstract. The speed at which an economy converges to its steady state is investigated by using a general non-scale R&D-based growth model. To accomplish this task, an analytical decomposition formula for the instantaneous rate of convergence is developed. By applying this decomposition to the model under study, the driving forces behind the convergence process are identified. Two convergence mechanisms are distinguished: the accumulation–decumulation mechanism and the resource–reallocation mechanism. The relative importance of the different convergence mechanisms is assessed using numerical techniques. Moreover, it is shown that the specific shock being considered might be crucial for the instantaneous rate of convergence.     

Strategic resource dependence

We consider a situation where an exhaustible-resource seller faces demand from a buyer who has a substitute but there is a time-to-build delay for the substitute. We find that in this simple framework the basic implications of the Hotelling model (1931) are reversed: over time the stock declines but supplies increase up to the point where the buyer decides to switch. Under such a threat of demand change, the supply does not reflect the current resource scarcity but it compensates the buyer for delaying the transition to the substitute. The analysis suggests a perspective on costs of oil dependence.     

Stochastic convergence of the catch-up rate and multiple structural breaks in Asian countries

Allowing for multiple structural breaks and cross-section dependence, we re-investigate the hypothesis that the catch-up rates stochastically converge for 13 Asian countries from 1960 to 2007. Non-rejection of stationarity provides evidence for stochastic convergence, implying that following shocks to the catch-up rate, it will eventually revert to its long-run level.     

Funded social security and economic growth

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and a fully funded social security system in an overlapping generations model with family altruism. It is shown that funded social security may harm growth if there are operative bequests within the family.     

Asymmetry and revenue in first-price auctions

We show by an example that in first-price IPV auctions, asymmetry in bidders' valuations need not reduce the revenue compared to a benchmark symmetric model with the same amount of social surplus. Asymmetry need not reduce competition in first-price auctions.     

Factor Mobility and Income Growth: Two Convergence Hypotheses

While technologies and policy fundamentals are presumably different internationally, inducing differences in growth rates, capital mobility can be a powerful force in equalizing output growth rates across countries. The paper provides some indirect evidence in support of this effect. In the context of regional growth, however, labor mobility can potentially equalize income levels across regions in the presence of human capital externalities. Supporting evidence is found for this effect, revealing that restrictions on labor flows tend to make per capita incomes more divergent across nations and/or regions.     

Optimal growth and uncertainty: Learning

We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural uncertainty and uncertainty due to the anticipation of learning. The latter renders control and learning nonseparable. We present two sets of results in a learning environment. First, conditions under which the introduction of learning increases or decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which may pull in opposite directions. Second, the effects of the mean and riskiness of the distribution of the signal and initial beliefs on optimal consumption are studied.     

The economics of ‘new blood’

We construct a dynamic general-equilibrium model of search and matching where public knowledge grows through time and workers accumulate a fraction of this knowledge through education/retraining. Due to search delays, the unemployment pool is populated by vintages of workers of differing productivities. Through intergenerational rivalry, the human capital of older generations is rendered obsolete relative to that of the new blood. Higher knowledge growth exacerbates intergenerational competition, thereby lowering education and growth while raising unemployment and inequality. These findings help explain wage compression/expansion and the hump-shaped wage-tenure profile across cohorts.     

动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子与资产定价

本文在Campbell and Cochrane(1998)和Brandt and Wang(2001)的研究基础之上利用随机贴现因子对包含习惯的效用函数中的风险厌恶进行了动态一般化分析，并探讨了动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子、资产定价以及消费增长等因素之间的一般化关系。这种一般化关系有助于解释“股权溢价之谜”(Equity Premium Puzzle)等不合理现象的存在。     

Stochastic growth: a duality approach

We re-examine the representative agent's optimal consumption and savings under uncertainty in the presence of investment constraints using martingale representation and convex analysis techniques. This framework allows us to explicitly quantify precautionary savings which induces a higher average growth rate than in a certainty setup. We provide a closed form solution for a Cobb-Douglas economy. The effect of uncertainty on portfolio selection is analyzed. Consumption growth rate and risk free interest rate exhibit a U-shaped relationship. Uncertainty negatively affects expected consumption growth rate; such a result seems to be supported by empirical evidence.     

Income based price subsidies and parallel imports

We present a policy game where a Rich country has a higher ability than a Poor country to commit to certain elements of health policy such as providing income related price subsidies and allowing parallel imports (PI). When allowing PI is not a choice for the Poor country, the Rich country allows PI and both countries provide a subsidy to their poorer buyers as the subgame perfect equilibrium policies. However, when the Poor is able to PI a different equilibrium may arise. We show that the ability of the Poor to allow PI might increase welfare in this country even if it is never implemented. We also prove that as the Poor country gets richer, it will not be in their best interest to sign an agreement with the Rich to commit to not allowing PI.     

Labor Income Taxation,Human Capital,and Growth: The Role of Childcare*

In this paper, we examine the effects of labor income taxation on growth in an overlapping generations model in which schooling and childcare play a role in the production of human capital. We compare such effects with those obtained in a model in which only schooling matters for skill formation. We show that the omission of childcare from the technology of skill formation can bias the results related to the impact of labor income taxation on growth.     

Asymmetric Information,Auditing Commitment,and Economic Growth

We analyze in this paper the growth and welfare consequences stemming from the lack of auditing commitment in a credit market with costly state verification. By studying two endogenous growth models, one of which allows lenders to commit to costly auditing strategies, whereas the other does not, we show that the inability to commit serves as a source of informational friction that results in more stringent contractual terms, which, in turn, result in lower capital accumulation, growth, and welfare. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests a new micro‐economic channel through which institutional failings hinder economic growth and social welfare.     

Confronting the risk of asset loss: What role do livestock transfers in northern Kenya play?

In many low-income, high-risk environments households participate in informal risk sharing institutions involving inter-household transfers. This study focuses on: asset transfers and asset risk; the influence of past behavior on access to transfers; and wealth-differentiated transfer behavior. Panel data on livestock transfers in northern Kenya are analyzed. Three explanations of livestock transfers are investigated: ex post insurance; ex ante precautionary savings; and redistribution. Findings indicate that livestock transfers are of limited effectiveness in addressing asset risk and avoiding poverty. The findings have implications for both research on risk sharing institutions and for the design of development policies in pastoral areas.     

Reform Unleashed Korean Growth

Before the reform in the 1960s, twin vicious circles perpetuated the shortages of foreign exchange and labor skill, and prevented the Korean economy from realizing its considerable growth potential. The breakthrough came when the Japanese labor shortage facilitated Korean exports, after economic normalization between the two countries. The reformed institutions reduced rent‐seeking and refocused Korean managerial efforts to pioneering activities. The Korean takeoff scenario is a shared theme among all four Asian newly industrialized economies cited by Lucas (1988) as showcases.