贸易开放、人口规模与中国地方政府规模：驱动还是补偿*

针对贸易开放、人口规模和中国地方政府规模之间联系究竟是驱动促成还是补偿所致的争论,本文基于中国29个省份1978—2013年三个维度样本数据,首先考察三者之间的关系,研究发现贸易开放对地方政府规模具有正向影响,人口规模对地方政府规模的影响不确定,人口规模对贸易开放存在正向影响。采用多种内生性处理方法的估计表明,贸易开放对地方政府规模的正向影响是因果性的。上述结论在不同的估计方法、数据类型、模型设定下均十分稳健。人口规模并未在贸易开放与中国地方政府规模的正向联系中起到居间驱动作用,贸易开放基于风险补偿机制直接推动了中国地方政府规模的不断膨胀。因此,伴随“一带一路”的有序推进,适度提高地方政府在民生领域的支出规模可能势在必行。     

SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS' HOUSEIIOLD INCOME AND MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN JAPAN: 1963–88

An attempt is made to examine empirically the relationship between the size distribution of workers' household incomes and the variables expressing macroeconomic activities. As a preliminary implementation, the income shares are first estimated by decile groups and several subdivided top income groups. Applying Blinder and Esaki's regression approach to the estimated data, the ratio of job offers to applicants, inflation rate, and the terms of trade arc found to significantly affect the distribution. Of these variables, the terms of trade should be taken into account to ascertain precisely the income distribution in Japan where foreign trade heavily affects economic conditions.     

MARKETS,EXTERNALITIES, AND THE DYNAMIC GAINS OF OPENNESS

Inflows of foreign knowledge are key for developing countries to catch up with the world technology frontier. I construct a model to analyze the entry decisions of foreign firms and the incentives of domestic firms to invest in their own know‐how, given the exposure to foreign ideas and competition. The model embeds two diffusion mechanisms typically considered separately in the literature: externalities and markets. I find that openness allows developing countries to fully catch up only when market transactions dominate the diffusion of ideas. Externalities are never enough to catch up and may lead to losses in income and welfare.     

FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS

In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a new‐Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in the presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers, but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more volatile investment and real money balances.     

成本冲击、通胀容忍度与宏观经济政策

与之前比较,2010年以来此轮通胀成本冲击型特征十分明显（主要表现为国际大宗商品价格高企和国内劳动力成本上升）。在此背景下,是否应提高对通胀的容忍度以及宏观政策如何有所作为已成为热门话题。目前国内外已经有一些对通胀容忍度的探讨,但规范性的研究论文并不多见。本文在多恩布什-费雪（Dornbusch Fischer）框架基础上,结合中国实际,创新性地区分大宗商品价格和劳动力成本冲击（尤其是B S效应）对总供给以及宏观经济的不同影响机制,探讨有关通胀容忍度以及宏观政策应对问题。     

货币政策、金融周期及其宏观经济效应

本文综合金融市场的多维信息,利用主成分分析法合成我国的金融周期指数。在此基础上,构建TVP SV VAR模型研究2003—2017年间我国货币政策、金融周期及宏观经济变量间的时变互动关系。研究发现：（1）我国货币政策、金融周期和宏观经济变量之间存在显著的时变互动关系。（2）金融传导渠道可能扭曲货币政策效力,通过金融传导渠道,货币政策不仅会抑制经济增长,还可能加剧通货膨胀。（3）金融周期对货币政策产出效应的影响滞后于对价格效应的影响。短期来看,货币政策产出效应的时变特征与金融传导渠道无太大关联,但随时间推移,金融繁荣对产出的负面影响可能最终使货币政策产出效应发生反转。货币当局应警惕金融繁荣对货币政策效力的扭曲,审慎操作,且不宜承担过多刺激产出的任务。     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE OPENNESS

This paper empirically investigates the interaction between financial development and trade openness through simultaneous‐equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity proposed by Rigobon (2003). Using a panel consisting of 70 countries over the period 1960–2007, we find a two‐way causal relationship between financial development and trade openness. A better‐developed financial sector induces higher openness to trade, while higher openness in goods market stymies financial development. And such findings hold well for low‐income, high‐inflation, or low‐governance countries.     

关于当前宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策

2002年下半年的经济增长不会像2001年那样呈逐季下降趋势,可能出现比较平稳的上升。但我们要清醒地认识到,通货紧缩的趋势扩大和有效需求不足问题基本上还没有得到解决,经济增长的内在动力依然不足。在继续坚持积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策的同时,应研究选择积极的财政政策淡出的时间和力度,不能把积极的财政政策中期化和长期化。     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY

Using cross‐country panel data over the period 1996–2012, this paper examines the impact of financial development on macroeconomic volatility using GMM estimators. In contrast to the linear relationship identified in many previous studies, we present robust evidence suggesting that the effect of financial development on macroeconomic volatility is nonlinear and U‐shaped. We also investigate the potential differences between developed and developing countries. The results of the paper add new evidence and shed interesting insights into the recent debate on the role of finance in macroeconomic fluctuations.     

MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION

This paper explores the effects that varying degrees of international openness have on macroeconomic volatility. The analysis is conducted for a two‐symmetric‐country world under three levels of international integration: that of a closed economy, a financial autarky, and full financial integration. Different degrees of trade openness are considered in the form of home biases, while the economy is left vulnerable to total factor productivity and innovation shocks. Full financial integration is found to reduce firm‐size volatility and volatility in the mass of operative firms following a productivity shock and to increase them after an innovation shock. Moreover, the interaction between international sharing of profits and terms of trade transmissions determines the non‐linear behaviour of consumption‐to‐output ratio volatility found in empirical studies.     

DEBT NONNEUTRALITY,POLICY INTERACTIONS,AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY*

We study the consequences of nonneutrality of government debt for macroeconomic stabilization policy in a sticky‐price model. Ricardian equivalence fails because debt has a negative impact on its rate of return and on private savings, which is induced by assuming transaction services of bonds. Under aggressive monetary policy regimes, macroeconomic fluctuations tend to be stabilized if nominal budget deficits are low. A smooth debt path limits inflation expectations, such that inflation variances can be reduced. Under a balanced budget policy, the central bank's output gap–inflation volatility trade‐off is improved relative to an environment where debt is neutral.     

中国经济走势与宏观经济政策取向

本文采用历史分析和逻辑研究相结合的方法,认为中国经济的运行规律是决定中国未来宏观经济走势的基础,而世界经济运行规律和中国的宏观经济政策选择也影响着宏观经济的走势。无论从中国经济自身的运动规律还是从世界经济的运行规律来看,未来几年中国经济增长总体上都将呈现向好的趋势。因此,2012年及其未来一段时间,保持经济适度增长,促进结构调整,抑制通货膨胀,将成为中国经济发展的主旋律和政策选择的目标。     

CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION, U.S. MONEY DEMAND, AND INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE

A number of writers have argued in recent years that massive international currency substitution has been a major cause of exchange rate volatility and monetary instability in the United States and other major countries. Such analysis is frequently coupled with recommendations for a return to pegged exchange rates. This paper critically examines the evidence presented for this currency substitution view. It argues that the weight of latest research suggests that direct international currency substitution has not been of major quantitative importance for the U.S. However, empirical evidence supports traditional views that international capital mobility can generate substantial short-run monetary interdependence even under flexible exchange rates. Thus, even though international currency substitution is of little importance to U.S. monetary conditions, a broader range of international considerations may be of considerable importance for the U.S. economy.     

FDI,SECTORAL OUTPUT AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS UNDER FINANCIAL OPENNESS

This paper adopts an alternative approach to the study of the impact of capital inflow on the real exchange rate by foremost, analysing the effect of FDI inflow on the ratio of tradables to nontradables, and then estimating the relationship between the tradable‐nontradable ratio and the real exchange rate, while accounting for the role of financial openness. Based on data for a group of developing countries, the findings show that an increase in FDI inflow is associated with a decrease in the tradable‐nontradable ratio, and that an increase in the tradable‐nontradable ratio leads to a depreciation of the real exchange rate; this effect being greater with an increase in financial openness. This suggests that an increase in FDI inflow could result in an expansion of the nontradable sector, which would be associated with a greater appreciation of the real exchange rate under a higher level of financial openness.     

PROGRESSIVE TAXATION,ENDOGENOUS GROWTH,AND MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY

In the context of a standard one‐sector model of endogenous growth, we show that the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy and belief‐driven aggregate fluctuations under progressive taxation of income. When the tax schedule is regressive or flat, the economy's balanced growth path displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. These results imply that in sharp contrast to a conventional automatic stabilizer, progressive income taxation may destabilize an endogenously growing macroeconomy by generating cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self‐fulfilling expectations or sunspots.     

CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

宏观调控政策的国际互动及效应

通过运用格兰杰二元因果关系检验和协整检验等方法对多国的货币市场利率、货币供给量、政府净债务和政府支出等指标的增长率变动进行分析,可以证实国际间的货币政策和财政政策调控存在显著的互动关系,并且通过分析这些指标与各国经济总量GDP的互动关系,可以证实存在着国际间宏观经济互动调控的经济福利效应,它通过一些宏观经济调控政策的国际互动机制得以实现。     

SHORT-RUN MONETARY POLICY AND THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

This study investigates factors influencing monetary policy decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over the period 1960–1998. Competing perspectives regarding the process of monetary policy making exist, with some researchers contending the FOMC makes short-run policy decisions based solely on "objective" macroeconomic considerations and others arguing that political and other nonmacroeconomic considerations significantly influence monetary policy voting. Empirical studies support both views in varying degrees. This article presents a model of FOMC decision making which posits that (1) the current/prospective macroeconomic environment at the time of FOMC meetings is the most important consideration of monetary policy makers, and (2) nonmacroeconomic variables receive little attention unless macroeconomic conditions are difficult for policy makers to assess. Probit results support the implications of the model.