Foreign trade model of the centrally planned economies

This paper presents a linked econometric model of the foreign trade of seven European socialist countries grouped in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). The model aims at analysing the role of the international and regional trade in the economies of the socialist countries. The central part of the model is formed by foreign trade equations which allow analysis of the economic processes of the CMEA countries in relationships with the intra-CMEA and international trade. The assumptions of the model structure and some empirical results are discussed.     

Immiserizing growth in centrally planned economies

This paper proposes a theoretical model explaining the discrepancy between the reported growth rate and the improvement in living standards in centrally planned economies (CPEs ). It investigates the institutional arrangement in CPEs and suggests that distorted growth generally takes place as the CPEs' planners attempt to achieve rapid economic growth while prices are kept constant. This leads to an overestimation of the growth rate in terms of the actual economic welfare improvements in CPEs. It can result in immiserizing growth, wherein a rapid growth is accompanied by a deterioration in economic welfare.     

Export uncertainty in centrally planned economies and administered protection

The paper examines the price decision making process of a state foreign trade organization under threat of antidumping tariffs. Given the peculiar application of the antidumping law to centrally planned economy exporters, the paper formally outlines the parameters guiding the state exporter's price decision and attempts to estimate the degree of uncertainty it faces. The exporter's optimal price is shown to depend on its subjective probability distributions of numerous foreign prices and alternative methodologies for calculating a centrally planned economy exporter's “fair price.”     

Exchange-rate adjustments in small market and centrally planned economies

In a centrally planned economy (CPE) that has eliminated detailed central planning of output and foreign trade and introduced some domestic price flexibility and organic linkages to world-market prices, the exchange rate can take on more than an accounting function. This paper contrasts the effects of exchange-rate adjustment in such a “modified” CPE (or MCPE) with those in a market economy. There are a number of reasons why MCPE authorities might eschew devaluation as a policy instrument, despite the possibility that it would be more effective in some cases in improving the trade balance than in a market economy.     

The supply of consumption goods in centrally planned economies

Estimates are given, based on annual time series from the mid-1950s to 1975, of planner's supply functions for consumption goods in Czechoslovakia, the GDR, Hungary, and Poland. The supply function is specified in the form of a behavioral rule describing the planners' short-run adjustment of consumption away from its long-run trend. The fits are good, and the estimates support the a priori specification and the maintained hypothesis of stable resource-allocation behavior. These supply functions, together with household demand functions estimated in a separate paper, will provide a starting point for disequilibrium estimation of the consumption-goods market for these economies.     

The allocative efficiency of centrally planned foreign trade: A programming approach to the Czech case

In this paper the efficiency of the allocation of Czech trade with the member countries of OECD is investigated by means of a linear programming model. We find that considerable losses in this trade occurred in both of the years 1962 and 1964 examined. The bulk of the losses occurs in the allocation of exports and their magnitude is very dependent on the foreign elasticity of demand. Balance of payments constraints, on the other hand, are not an important cause of misallocation.     

The economics of joint ventures in centrally planned and labor-managed economies

The paper analyzes the allocational and distributional issues connected with the operation of joint ventures by firms in Yugoslavia, several Eastern European countries and the People's Republic of China with Western firms. A variable-bargaining-power model is used to examine the behavior of joint ventures under the various institutional circumstances of these countries. Contrary to Brada's conclusions (J. Comp. Econ.1(2):167–181, June 1977), the present study indicates that the behavior of joint ventures in most of these countries is likely to be quite similar.     

Disequilibrium theory,waiting costs,and saving behavior in centrally planned economies: A queueing-theoretic approach

An expected-utility maximizer, obliged to make a single purchase from two alternatives, finds that a queue forms for the good that would have been selected had both goods been available. An M/M/1 queue is posited and for each period of delay the maximum additional payment $\text{b}{}^1$ that the consumer would incur to join the queue is determined. This has implications for saving. Not only the availability of the good, but also the delay in obtaining it, the alteration in its arrival rate, and the “stampede effect” determine saving behavior.     

Productivity paralysis and the complexity problem: Why do centrally planned economies become prematurely gray?

We develop a theory of the Soviet productivity growth slowdown that attributes it to difficulties encountered by systems of central planning as the economy becomes more complex. Shortages become more disruptive as the economy modernizes, forcing the economy to operate at an increasing distance from its production possibility frontier. The model also supports the widely held notion that consumer welfare suffers in Soviet-type economies as consumers' needs become increasingly sophisticated.     

Banking crises in monetary economies

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the effect of inflation on banking crises in a model in which money and banks play essential roles. The model's equilibrium replicates some key features of actual banking crises, namely, the partial suspension of payments and the desire to hold cash even in the absence of pressing liquidity needs. When banks have access to a stable foreign currency, inflation has a threshold effect on banking crises: higher inflation reduces the likelihood of crises when inflation is below the threshold; the reverse happens when inflation exceeds the threshold. This result appears to be broadly consistent with available evidence.     

Competitive-search equilibrium in monetary economies

Competitive search was recently introduced in monetary economics by Rocheteau and Wright [Money in search equilibrium, in competitive equilibrium, and in competitive search equilibrium, Econometrica 73 (2005) 175-203]. We extend their work by eliminating the restriction that the fees market makers charge to enter a submarket must be either non-negative or identical for buyers and sellers. Without this restriction, buyers pay a positive fee to enter the submarket they visit and nothing else when they meet a seller. Sellers are remunerated by the market makers from the entry fees collected from the buyers. This trading arrangement allows buyers to perfectly predict their expenses, so the opportunity cost of holding idle money balances is eliminated.     

Internal and external balance in a centrally planned economy

This paper presents a model of an open centrally planned economy. In a framework that allows disequilibrium and (informal) quantity rationing, we seek to represent both the effects of domestic macroeconomic processes on trade flows and the effects on domestic macro variables of foreign-sector phenomena. We investigate the adjustment of the system to exogenous shocks and the policy trade-offs facing the planners, using a diagrammatic apparatus analogous to the Swan and Mundell diagrams for an open developed market economy. The model is also intended to serve as a basis for specification of empirical models of the macroeconomic aspects of foreign trade in centrally planned economies.     

Credibility and commitment of monetary policy in open economies

We study the delegation of monetary policy to independent central bankers in a two-country world with monetary spillovers. It is shown that, under the hypotheses of imperfect commitment and private information, the equilibrium degree of commitment depends on the correlation structure of the shocks hitting the economies. When the correlation is negative (as when the variance of output depends mainly on shocks to the terms of trade) there is strategic complementarity in the degree of commitment in the two countries. When the correlation is positive (common technological or demand shocks) there is strategic substitutability. In this latter case, the degree of commitment is shown to be increasing in the correlation among shocks. Common components in the international business cycle have been shown in several studies to be relatively more relevant in developed countries. Therefore, our results may contribute to explaining why the institutional solution to the inflationary bias has been adopted in the most advanced countries.     

Oil shocks and monetary policy rules in emerging economies

We examine the effects of shocks in the oil market on key macroeconomic variables in small open economies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and imperfect competition under different monetary policy rules. The numerical solutions show that the types of exchange rate regimes and monetary policies could partly explain the trends in macroeconomic volatilities considering negative shocks to oil supply (Hamilton, 1983) and positive shocks to oil demand (Kilian, 2009). These findings are confirmed in vector autoregressive responses for Chile and Israel with inflation targeting under flexible exchange regimes and Hong Kong with fixed regime.     

Volatility spillovers of unconventional monetary policy to emerging market economies

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced waves of market volatility since the global financial crisis, with some commentators ascribing this at least partly related to monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to EMEs from 2003 to 2018. We find that volatility spillovers to EME currency markets are greater in magnitude from the FED, while EME stock and bond markets are also vulnerable to volatility spillovers in a similar magnitude from both the ECB and the FED. We find only limited evidence of volatility transmission to the real economy of EMEs following the monetary policy actions of the FED and ECB. Finally, we show that the proportion of the volatility in EMEs that is accounted for by changes in FED and ECB balance sheets shifts over time. Our paper has important policy implications for EMEs, notably in respect of volatility transmission channels.     

Smoothing the adjustment to trade liberalization

Empirica - We use a dynamic general equilibrium trade model with comparative advantage, heterogeneous firms, heterogeneous workers and endogenous firm entry to analyze economic policy meant to...