Simple fiscal policy rules for small open economies

This paper analyzes the scope for rules-based countercyclical fiscal policy in small open economies where a subset of households is liquidity-constrained. Relative to balanced budget rules, structural surplus rules significantly improve welfare. But they minimize fiscal instrument volatility rather than business cycle volatility. More aggressively countercyclical tax revenue gap rules (strong automatic stabilizers) increase welfare gains by around 50%, with only modest increases in fiscal instrument volatility. If liquidity-constrained households' labor income is independent of raw materials prices, the government should save excess raw materials revenue on their behalf. The best fiscal instruments are transfers, consumption and labor taxes.     

On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

1998年以来财政体制与政策的宏观评价

目前对于1998年以来积极财政政策的评价大都与经济运行的周期性波动相联系,缺乏与财政体制改革和经济转轨阶段性演进相联系的考察,而这两个被忽略的方面可能正好是影响积极财政政策效果的原因.本文试图从更宏观的视角分析五年来财政体制与政策的基本关系,并提出下一步财政改革与发展的政策建议.     

石化通用机械进出口及其相关政策走向

石化通用机械行业2003年-2006年进出口连年增长.2007年出口继续快速增长,各主要产品进口有增有减.政策调整将对石化通用机械进出口产生影响.部分产品出口退税率下调.国内投资项目中有154种设备进口不予免税.国家鼓励进口6种石化通用机械.重大技术装备关键件进口实行先征税后返回优惠政策.人民币对美元的汇率升值将会继续,有关企业要积极应对.     

The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan

This paper assesses the effects of the most recent monetary policy behaviour of the Bank of Japan (in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy) and Japanese tax policy on income inequality in this country during the period of 2002Q1 to 2017Q3. The vector error correction model (VECM) that develops in this research shows that increase in money stock (m1) through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) policies of the BOJ significantly increases the income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing the income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that increasing of income inequality by monetary policy is larger when comparing to decreasing effects of tax policy on income inequality. Cointegration and VECM results show that monetary policy has both short-run and long-run impacts but for tax policy paper could not find any significant short-run impact on income inequality. In addition, paper found that technological progress only in long-run can reduce the income inequality by increasing the marginal productivity of labour with positive impacts on employment and wages.     

Real exchange rate (RER) as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in Africa

Appropriate exchange rate (ER) policies in some Asian and Latin American countries have led to improvement in industrial diversification and growth. The growth ‘miracle’ of the Asian countries centres on the effective use of ER and trade policies, specifically the adoption of depreciation of real exchange rate (RER). However, the case of Africa is different, as the continent is yet to adopt an appropriate ER policy that enhances industrial diversification and growth. Examining the effectiveness of the RER as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in 36 African countries, this study applied a dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique to determine how changes in RER affects the growth composition of the three main productive sectors – primary, secondary, and tertiary and their response rates. Our findings suggest that the primary sector leads to appreciation of the RER, while the secondary and tertiary lead to depreciation of the RER. This result has serious policy implication for the Africa continent that has relied so much on the production of primary commodities. Rather than pursue the policy of ER depreciation which affects the primary and secondary sectors, policy shift in favour of the tertiary sector should be highly encouraged.     

A note reconsidering a post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution in the globalization context

We treat an extension of the Metcalfe and Steedman model of growth and distribution in a small open economy with government activity. We show, simultaneously, that certain kinds of taxation and government expenditures will not affect the essential nature of the “Cambridge Equation.” This is important due to the increasing process of Financial Globalization which can be responsible for changing the profit distribution between capitalists and workers. The present note aims at integrating the public sector and the foreign trade together into the model, based on previous literature that, with few exceptions, treats them separately. To do so, a new framework is proposed. Our contribution shows that workers’ income grows when the Current Account in the balance of payments is in surplus, a result not studied by Teixeira and Araújo. The discussion includes recent literature concerning with limits of applicability of such analytical model, dealing with more realistic economies including the process of globalization.     

论美国金融危机对中国的影响及对策

美国次贷危机,给中国经济带来了巨大不良影响。这种影响主要通过外需、资本流动、资产负债表、金融市场、国际初级产品价格、汇率及货币政策等渠道传递到中国。中国应借鉴美国次贷危机产生诱因的教训,从改善宏观调控、加快贸易调整、稳定投资增长和支持消费等几方面着手应对危机影响。同时,应在扩大内需。保持经济平稳发展的基础上。加强国际合作,和全世界共同应对美国金融危机,弱化、遏止危机对中国经济的影响。     

海南省旅游收入与经济增长的关联度分析

根据海南省相关资料分析发现:旅游收入、入境旅游人次与GDP之间存在正向的长期均衡关系和双向的因果关系,旅游收入对经济增长的拉动作用低于入境旅游人次对经济增长的拉动作用。政府应充分发挥其市场导向作用,加大海陆空交通、港口等基础设施方面的建设,进一步加强对海南省物流、金融、电信等服务业的支持力度和规范管理,建立建全旅游市场经营的行业协会制度;企业应以社会和自然承载力为依据开发新的旅游产品,并融入文化要素,建立旅游产品品牌;同时,旅游企业要加强自身管理和市场竞争力的培育,吸纳并培养高层次的旅游管理人才。     

改革开放以来我国行政法的发展与展望

改革开放以来,我国行政法发展经历了三个阶段,取得了巨大成就。目前,行政法体系已经基本形成、行政法基本原则渐趋成熟、行政法观念实现重大转变、行政法理论取得重大突破。在今后的发展过程中,我国行政法还将逐步从国家行政法向公共行政法转变,逐步从单项行政程序立法向行政程序法典化发展,行政程序法典化终将得到实现。     

江苏省各地市商业创业环境比较及政策优化

文章以基于GEM的商业创业环境评价指标体系为分析框架,通过对江苏省各地市商业创业环境的定量分析及综合比较,揭示出各地商业创业环境的独有特征,并在此基础上给出了优化商业创业环境的政策建议。     

Economic growth,financial market,and twin crises

In this study, we look not only to provide empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial crises on economic growth, but also to examine the roles of insurance development, financial liberalization, financial institution, and crisis intervention policies on the relationship between the two. We employ a panel data framework from 50 countries by applying the dynamic panel generalized method of moments model. Our main empirical results show that financial crises do have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. In addition, governments or authorities are encouraged to further enhance their insurance sector in order to help spur economic growth when financial crises arise. The government intervention policy choice is also an important factor influencing economic growth during crises.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

美日欧科技振兴战略综述

自1995年5月中央首次明确提出"科教兴国"战略以来,科教兴国已成为我国的基本国策并对经济建设起到了很重要的作用。然而在科技政策的制订和实施上还存在很多问题,不容忽视。通过对美日欧发达国家科技振兴战略的回顾和总结,分析其异同点,希望能对我国"科教兴国"战略的实施起到一定的指导作用。     

公私医疗卫生支出与经济增长关系的实证分析

众所周知,医疗卫生支出不仅关系到一个国家社会福利政策的规划,还对经济增长具有不可忽略的促进作用。然而,现有文献对于医疗卫生支出与经济增长关系之间的研究结论却是众说纷纭。鉴于此,本文根据医疗卫生支出的支付主体,将其分为政府医疗卫生支出和居民医疗卫生支出,并通过建立双向固定效应模型对公私医疗卫生支出对经济增长的影响进行分析。结果显示：从全国平均水平来看,政府医疗卫生支出每增长100％,带动经济增长12．08％,居民医疗卫生支出每增长100％,带动经济增长15．85％;但与此同时,考虑到不同地区的经济发展非均衡化时,政府医疗卫生支出和居民医疗卫生支出带动经济增长的效应差异甚大,其中政府医疗卫生支出对经济增长呈现“倒U型”效应,而居民医疗卫生支出对经济增长呈现“阶梯型”效应。     

经济技术开发区经济增长与就业之间关系的定量分析：以大连开发区为例

以大连开发区为例 ,对我国经济技术开发区经济增长与就业之间的关系进行定量分析。目前我国开发区劳动投入对经济增长的拉动作用比较明显 ,而经济增长对就业的吸纳能力较差     

Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries

This paper explores a period of substantial variation in trade policy across industries in Colombia (1977-1991) to examine whether increased exposure to foreign competition generates productivity gains for manufacturing plants. Using an estimation methodology that addresses the shortcomings of previous studies, we find a strong positive impact of tariff liberalization on plant productivity, even after controlling for plant and industry heterogeneity, real exchange rates, and cyclical effects. The impact of liberalization is stronger for larger plants and plants in less competitive industries. Our findings are not driven by the endogeneity of protection. Similar results are obtained when using effective rates of protection and import penetration ratios as measures of protection. Productivity gains under trade liberalization are linked to increases in intermediate inputs' imports, skill intensity, and machinery investments, and to output reallocations from less to more productive plants.