利率下调对房地产业及资本市场的影响

一、利率下调有利于房地产业的复苏和发展。首先,利率下调将促使部分储蓄存款转向房地产投资和消费上来。因此,促进房地产销售,有利于房地产业盘活,变现存量房产,实现经济效益。众所周知,目前房地产市场不景气,至使房地产业的资产中存货居高不下,资金运转艰难,负债率上升,利息负担沉重,经济效益下降,不少房地产业的楼盘已经亏本抛售。因而,许多优质楼盘已明显具有投资价值和升值潜力。     

"百字"定调资本市场

国务院总理温家宝3月5日在十届全国人大五次会议上作政府工作报     

资本市场的"对赌局"

“愿赌服输”这个在《赌王》、《赌神》等电影中耳熟能详的一个词语,现如今频繁地出现在企业跨国融资并购中。不过,在资本市场上,这个“愿赌服输”是通过双方签订“对赌协议”来实现的。由于协议的结果是不确定的,与赌博有些许的类似,因此被形象地称为“对赌”。投资方与融资方签署“对赌协议”,是海外私募股本投资基金投资项目时较为常见的做法,近年来类似做法越来越多地引入内地。其实,作为财务投资人,之所以坚持要与管理层签订这样一份协议,主要目的并不完全在于向管理层套利,而是要解决战略执行过程中的治理和激励问题。对赌协议的本质不是对立,而是谋求一致,即投资人与管理层在上市融资前就未来的成长路径和发展战略达成一致判断,然后通过合约的方式固定下来,以约束或激励管理层上市后的行为。从这个意义上说,对赌协议及对赌下的资金融通,本身就是带着战略来的。接受了这一协议,也就意味着接受了协议框架下的战略。     

中国房地产业对资本市场系统性风险的贡献度研究

本文以上证房地产指数代表房地产业,以上证综指代表资本市场,从静态和动态两方面度量房地产业对资本市场系统性风险的贡献度。度量结果发现房地产业对资本市场系统性风险贡献与经济整体变动趋势一致,房地产业在2008年美国次贷危机时期和2015年中国股灾时期系统性风险贡献较大,经济平稳时期系统性风险贡献小。通过对比沪市不同类型的房地产公司,结果发现住宅地产对资本市场的系统性风险贡献最大。本文还比较了房地产业、银行业、保险业、证券业和多元金融业对资本市场系统性风险贡献,结论表明房地产业对资本市场系统性风险溢出效应最大。房地产业与资本市场之间存在紧密的相关性,是可能引发资本市场系统性风险危机的重要来源,政策制定者应强化房地产业的监管。     

浅析资本运营的市场环境

资本运营与商品市场、金融市场、劳动力市场、房地产市场、技术市场和信息市场等各类市场之间相互制约,相互促进。应协调好资本运营与市场的关系,合理配置资源,促进产业结构合理化,降低投资风险,促进资本增值,实现经济的协调、稳定和高速增长。     

应对"洋种子"抢占我国种业市场的策略探析

近年来,"洋种子"纷纷抢占我国种业市场,威胁我国粮食产业安全,应及早建立国家种业保护与发展协调机制,加强对国内种业核心领域的保护,支持国内种业企业做大做强,确保牢牢控制图家粮食安全的主动权.     

抢占高速公路的"快车道"

据测算,我国每亿元高速公路的建设投资能直接带动社会总产出近 3亿元。高速公路年均1000亿元左右建设的投资,将带动一批产业群。 诸如,用于高速公路建设的挖掘机、铲运机、推土机、压路机、装载机、 养路车等重要施工机械设备需求将明显增加。     

抢占责任保险市场势在必行

责任保险是一种以被保险人对第三者依法应承担的赔偿责任为保险标的的保险,它是保险业发展到高级阶段的产物。它的出现与国家经济实力、法律制度、国民的法制意识息息相关。在国外,责任保险的发展水平被视为一个国家保险业发达与否的标志。责任保险是一种具有很强社会管理功能的保险,它已经渗透到社会生活的各个方面,促进了社会的进步和发展,维护社会稳定。同时,发展责任保险有利于调整产品结构,分散经营风险。     

Real estate market transparency and default on mortgages

This paper investigates the relationship between real estate market transparency (RET) and default on mortgages (DOM). Using data from 46 countries for the period of 2006–2016, we find evidence that there is a negative and significant relationship between RET and DOM. This result is robust with the inclusion of control variables and different estimation methods including panel fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). We also find that the association between RET and DOM is more apparent in emerging economies than high-income countries.     

房地产市场运行及未来趋势展望

2011年在以限购为主的房地产调控政策作用下,市场需求受到抑制,商品房销售增速明显低于历史同期平均水平。保障性住房全年开工建设任务已经提前完成,受其拉动,房地产开发投资保持高位。当前,保障性住房建设全面展开,以限购为主的调控政策短期不会退出,并呈现向二三线城市扩大的趋势,一些前期房价上涨过快的城市降价促销愈演愈烈,商品房价格回调趋势明显。     

Internal capital market subsidies and industry downturns

We examine whether multisegment firms tend to subsidize operations doing business in industries that experience a major downturn in investment opportunities. The results provide little evidence of subsidization. The likelihood of discontinuation of multisegment operations in these industries does not statistically differ from that of single-segment operations. Similarly, patterns of capital expenditures after the shock do not materially deviate between multisegment and single-segment operations. These results indicate that the internal capital markets of multisegment firms are no less (and no more) efficient than that of single-segment firms in their reaction to a shock to investment opportunities.     

房地产、经济增长与货币政策的相关影响

本文在分析房价与房地产投资影响因素、房地产投资与经济周期关系的基础上,评估了本次房地产紧缩政策可能带来的紧缩效应,认为调控政策大致能较好地防止今年经济走向过热。同时认为从中期来看,要遏制房价过快上涨,也应当关注通胀预期和利率政策的相关影响。     

高新产业发展需要资本市场支持

在资本市场助推中关村企业国际化发展专题交流会上,上海证券交易所总经理助理夏建亭认为,中国的高科技企业和新兴产业有着良好的发展前景,但在发展初期,风险相对还是比较高的,这就需要包容性强、吞吐能力大的资本市场在企业发展的不同阶段提供相应的资本支持。他说     

Real estate returns,money and fiscal deficits: Is the real estate market efficient?

This research examines the causal relationship between several financial variables and a portfolio of real estate returns using monthly data from January 1965 to December 1986. The empirical analysis is based on multivariate Granger-causality tests in conjunction with Akaike's final prediction error criterion. The results indicate that measures approximating monetary policy and market returns play an important role in causing changes in real estate returns. In particular, our findings suggest that base money and market returns have had significant lagged effects on current real estate returns.     

Real estate prices and bank stability

Real estate prices can deviate from their fundamental value due to rigid supply, heterogeneity in quality, and various market imperfections, which have two contrasting effects on bank stability. Higher prices increase the value of collateral and net wealth of borrowers and thus reduce the likelihood of credit defaults. In contrast, persistent deviations from fundamentals may foster the adverse selection of increasingly risky creditors by banks seeking to expand their loan portfolios, which increases bank distress probabilities. We test these hypotheses using unique data on real estate markets and banks in Germany. House price deviations contribute to bank instability, but nominal house price developments do not. This finding corroborates the importance of deviations from the fundamental value of real estate, rather than just price levels or changes alone, when assessing bank stability.