Auction Markets for Evaluations

When the value of a product or service is uncertain, outcomes can be inefficient. A market for evaluations can theoretically increase efficiency by voluntarily eliciting an evaluation that would otherwise not be provided. This paper uses a controlled laboratory experiment to test the performance of four market mechanisms to provide product evaluations. The mechanisms considered are derived from the oft studied uniform price sealed bid, discriminatory price sealed bid, English clock auction, and Dutch clock auction. Our results indicate for this nonrivalrous product that (i) each of these institutions improves social welfare and (ii) the performances of the four mechanisms are equivalent. This second point is particularly noteworthy given that differing behavior is routinely observed in traditional private value auctions.     

Competition and collusion in a government procurement auction market

This paper tests the structure performance hypothesis by examining a highway construction industry in Florida. In the first-price sealed bid auction literature, there is little evidence on how many bidders are required for these markets to be competitive. Two different indicators are used to capture the transition from collusion to competition—a discontinuous effect of the number of bidders on winning bid price, and an associative effect of repeat bidding of a contractor with the same set of firms. The results suggest that winning bids decrease as the number of bidders rises until there are about six to eight firms. Since subsequent entry has no effect on the winning bid price, it is concluded that the highway construction market becomes competitive with about eight bidders.     

Social security and trust fund management

In this paper we investigate why and to what extent the government should have a social security trust fund, and how it should manage the fund in the face of demographic shocks, based on a simple overlapping-generations model. We show that, given an aging population, a trust fund in some form could achieve the (modified) golden rule or to offset the negative income effect of a PAYGO system. Besides, in a closed economy where factor-prices effects dominate, using the trust fund as a buffer for demographic shocks could lead to a widening of intergenerational inequality. We also the discuss policy implications of our analysis on the social security reform debate in Japan, including the fixed tax method and the use of the trust fund in the face of a rapidly aging population. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 528–550.     

Is Japan's trade (still) different?

Does Japanese trade in manufactured goods differ from the rest-of-the world average and from the US? We use a simple industry-level gravity model and 1981–1998 data to answer this question. We construct a measure of normalized imports by dividing bilateral industry-level imports by the importer's aggregate absorption and the exporter's industry output. We find that Japan imports less than other countries, but also exports less than other countries. Relative to the US, Japanese export performance is half as strong today as it was in the mid-1980s. Bilaterally, Japan is more open to imports from the US than the US is to imports from Japan. This means that the US runs a trade surplus with Japan in normalized imports of manufactured goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 507–519.     

石油国内税的价格效应——基于垂直市场结构的研究

石油进口国的国内税政策不仅影响消费者价格,还通过垂直市场结构传导影响石油公司买卖价差和国际石油价格。本文发现,在生产与贸易中介环节的不同市场结构组合下,石油国内税的价格效应明显不同。如果石油公司间竞争不强,国内税价格传递弹性为负,国际价格下降而石油公司要价上升;如果石油公司间竞争很强,国内税价格传递弹性为正,国际价格和石油公司要价同向下降。结合美国、欧盟和日本的需求弹性特征,实证结果支持了本文的理论分析结果,也为美国、欧盟和日本实际国内税率与最优税率的偏离提供了证据。     

中日两国政府对国际金融危机的对策效应研究

为应对2008年由美国次贷危机引发的世界性金融危机,中日两国政府采取了一系列刺激性政策措施。通过对政策的具体分析并利用潜在变量——危机强度,研究刺激政策对金融危机和宏观经济的效果,结果得出,中日两国均采取了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。两国政府采取的经济刺激政策对应对金融危机均有所成效,危机强度的走势日本比中国更理想,中国的危机强度比较随机。中日两国的经济刺激政策都改善了GDP、就业、通货膨胀、贸易差额等主要宏观经济指标,但在中国出现了通货膨胀,在日本产生了经济衰退和通货紧缩等问题。     

Retail power market competition with endogenous entry decision—An auction data analysis

Deregulation in the electric power industry has been aimed at promoting competition and thereby enhancing the industry’s efficiency. We use the auction data of public power procurements to study the impact of the reform on the retail power market in Japan. We quantify this impact by measuring a decline in power charges, controlling for the endogeneity bias caused by the entrants’ bid-submission decisions. Our results suggest that power charges would decline by about 0.48 yen/kW h on average when two or more providers bid at an auction.     

International competitiveness, technical change and the state: The machine tool industry in Taiwan and Japan

It is widely accepted that the growth performance of Japan and the Asian newly industrialized countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) is partly the result of the international competitiveness they have achieved in a number of export industries. It remains, however, to explain how this competitiveness was achieved. In the first part of the paper an attempt at such an explanation, based on the theory of comparative advantage, is critically examined. It is argued that while this explanation does have some explanatory power, it does not deal adequately with (a) the role of technical and productivity change; (b) the causal mechanisms underlying economic growth; and (c) the role of the state. The rest of the paper examines the case of machine tools in Taiwan and Japan showing the importance of these three factors as well as a number of others as determinants of international competitiveness. The paper ends with a discussion of policy dilemmas relating to international competitiveness in the Taiwanese machine toot industry.     

Comparing marginal commodity tax reforms in Japan and Korea

We examine the impact of the marginal commodity tax reforms in Japan and Korea, using data from the official household surveys of the two countries. Based on the estimations of two demand systems (linear expenditure system (LES) and almost ideal demand system(AIDS)), we compare the marginal costs of taxing major commodity groups, examine distributive gains from tax reforms based on concentration curves, and assess the impact on poverty based on consumption dominance curves. In particular, we find that revenue-neutral marginal tax reforms incorporating a reduced tax on food and beverages are more likely to face an efficiency–equity trade-off in Korea than in Japan.     

Worldwide Inflation and International Monetary Reform： Exchange Rates or Interest Rates？

The international dollar standard is malfunctioning. Near‐zero US short‐term interest rates launch massive hot money outflows into emerging markets (EM) in Asia and Latin America. Each EM central bank buys dollars to prevent its currency from appreciating but loses monetary control. Despite some appreciation, average inflation in EMs is now much higher than in the old industrial economies and world commodity prices are bid up sharply. This inflation on the dollar's periphery only registers in the US CPI with a long lag. However, the more immediate effect of the Fed's zero interest rate is to upset the process of bank intermediation within the American economy. Bank credit continues to decline while employment languishes. Therefore, constructive international monetary reform calls for the Fed to abandon its zero‐interest rate policy, which is best done in cooperation with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England also abandoning their ultra low interest rates.     

为何招标采购偏好“低于均价中标法”

低于均价中标法招标机制被广泛应用于各类招标采购中,但其合理性存在大量争议。文章首先在理论上证明了标准低于均价中标法下投标人不存在随真实成本严格递增的贝叶斯纳什均衡报价策略,然后基于某大型电力公司的招标采购数据,对投标行为进行实证分析,发现低于均价中标法下投标人报价可以反映其真实成本,且该机制在时间趋势上既可以激励投标人压缩利润,降低采购成本,又可以引导投标人形成稳定的低利润预期,指导投标人报"合理低价",防止"赢者诅咒"现象的发生。以上发现均说明低于均价中标法在业界被广泛应用的合理性,但这种招标机制也易于催生投标人间串谋。文章研究为低于均价中标法的合理使用提出了管理建议。     

控制权转移中的信息泄露：市场微观结构的分析视角

本文从市场微结构的视角,利用上市公司的高频分笔交易数据,以控制权转移事件中的目标公司为研究对象,分析宣告日前目标公司是否存在信息泄露的现象。本文的研究发现宣告日前后的买卖价差、交易量等指标显著提高,同时在宣告日前的事件窗口中,买卖价差与交易量之间显著正相关,证实了在控制权转移事件中,宣告日前确实存在着信息泄露。此外本文的研究表明不能以股价的上涨作为判断信息泄露的标志。     

Innovations for reaching the green sustainable development goals –where will they come from?

Reaching the sustainable development goals needs innovations. This paper addresses the dynamics of green energy and resource efficiency innovations, and looks at the positioning of countries from the North and emerging economies. We use indicators for both general innovation capabilities and specific green technology capabilities. Data on general innovation capabilities reveal that the traditional OECD countries, by and large, still possess advantages compared to Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs). Literature and Patent indicators reveal that the innovation dynamics are particularly high for publications. Literature and exports indicators reveal that the South has been catching up substantially. With regard to patents, some countries of the South are catching up, but the North is still cleary leading. A detailed analysis of co-patenting and country-to-country trade data reveals a more differentiated picture: Leading countries from Europe such as Germany as still specializing on serving the markets of traditional OECD countries. Japan and Korea are very reluctant with regard to co-patenting, but specialize in exporting to China. South-South trade in green technologies is the fastest growing market segment. However, countries of the South are pursuing a differentiated strategy: Mexico is highly integrated into the US economy. Singapore and South Korea have been catching up and provide technologies especially for China. China itself is following a double strategy, with absorbing technology from the North in order to compete on markets of the North on the one hand, but increasingly specializing on becoming lead supplier for countries of the South on the other hand. The other technology providers from the South are mainly specializing in supplying other countries from the South. Thus, a segmentation of the market is likely, with green sustainability innovations in the South more likely originating in the South as well, and China being an important country to adapt knowledge from the North to the needs of the South.     

转型时期社区集体物业改造升级的实践与探索

当前珠三角地区集体经济面临发展路径和模式的重新选择,集体物业出租也正值前所未有的低潮期。如何看待出租经济模式,如何正确把握集体物业的经营和升值?在土地资源日渐捉襟见肘的情况下,怎样才能既带动集体经济的发展、又高效整合集体建设用地,为一个地区、一个城市竞争力的提升创造条件?本文通过对一些地区案例的分析,提出了引进产业,统筹集体用地的政策建议。     

Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners

The cross-correlation function between terms of trade and trade balance has been found to resemble a pattern that is labeled the S-curve. This pattern has received weak support in some developed and less developed countries when aggregate trade data are used. Empirical regularities based on aggregate trade data may be biased since aggregation can potentially suppress some of patterns observed in trade at the bilateral levels. We try to overcome this problem by employing bilateral trade data for Japan and find strong support for the S-curve between Japan and many of her trading partners.     

Deal with it! The emergence and reversal of an agro-ecological crisis,Southern Sweden in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries

The European Early Modern period provides examples of stagnating and even declining production and energy consumption per capita, which can be interpreted as indicators of an emerging crisis. With a focus on agriculture sector, some have suggested that the crisis was ‘conditional’ – meaning that a crisis can only be observed in some cases. This article investigates one such case, a village in Southern Sweden during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, and investigates the mechanisms that mediate population growth to deteriorating living standards and environmental degradation. It provides new insights into the conditions of pre-industrial agriculture, particularly as regards the consequences of intensified demand pressure in ecologically fragile areas, and argues that human societies must be studied in tandem with their natural surroundings.     

浅析“招拍挂”与地价的关系

2009年是"地王"频发的一年,土地价格惊心动魄地上扬,甚至一些地方出现了"面粉比面包贵"的非正常现象。"招拍挂"引入市场竞争机制对土地资源进行配置,是实现土地价值的良好途径,但其供给垄断和需求竞争的模式及"价高者得"的特点,同时也会推高地价,对价格机制产生破坏,造成市场失灵的情况发生。本文从介绍城市土地配置方式的转变入手,基于土地价格机制理论分析了"招拍挂"与地价的影响,最后提出了改良"招拍挂"的建议。     

Disclosure Policy and Market Liquidity: Impact of Depth Quotes and Order Sizes*

This paper investigates the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. Our tests examine two key aspects of market liquidity, the effective bid‐ask spread and quoted depth, and how they relate to financial analysts' ratings of firms' disclosure policies. We introduce a method of combining order sizes and depth quotes to yield more precise estimates of effective spreads on trades likely constrained by quoted depth. We find that while firms with higher rated disclosures are charged lower effective spreads, they are also quoted lower depth, consistent with the notion that better disclosures reduce information asymmetry but also cause some liquidity suppliers to exit the market. Therefore, a simple examination of spreads and depths yields ambiguous inferences on the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. We resolve this ambiguity by estimating depth‐adjusted effective spreads, and find that firms with higher rated disclosures have lower depth‐adjusted effective spreads across all trade sizes. Consequently, our results reveal a robust inverse relation between disclosure ratings and effective trading costs. This implies that a policy of enhanced financial disclosure is related to improved market liquidity.     

The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?

This article documents time series evidence suggesting the case for a possible structural break in the role of Japan's monetary policy during the 1990s. It uses a simple vector autoregressive framework and offers some suggestive results: While a persistent effect of monetary policy on real output is detected over the full sample of 1975–1998 and the subsample that ends in 1993, such effect disappears with the recent subsample of the 1990s. The stability analysis also provides more specified evidence that there is a break in the reduced form dynamic system in 1995. Some interpretations are offered to intuitively support these findings. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 366–384. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Rokko, Nada, Kobe 657-8501, Japan Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, E32.     

Price shocks in regional markets: Japan's Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923

Japan's Great Kantō Earthquake of 1 September 1923 devastated the area around Tokyo and the country's main port of Yokohama. This article uses the earthquake as a case study to inform our understanding of the economics of disasters and the history of market integration. It seeks to test two main assumptions: first, that shifting demand and supply curves consequent on a disaster will have some impact on prices; and second, that any local changes in the disaster region are likely to be diffused across a wider geographical area. We make use of a unique monthly wholesale price dataset for a number of cities across Japan, and our analysis suggests three main findings: that price changes in the affected areas immediately following the disaster were in most cases reflected in price changes in Japan's provincial cities; that cities further away from the devastation witnessed smaller price changes than those nearer to the affected area; and that the observed pattern of price changes reflects the regional heterogeneity identified by scholars who have worked on market integration in Japan.