中国商业银行市场势力对其效率和稳定性的影响

文章运用随机边界模型估算了中国商业银行近十年来的成本、利润效率,并分别以勒纳指数和Z指数代表市场势力和稳定性,考察了市场势力对银行经营效率和稳定性的影响。结果表明:内地商业银行整体的效率逐年上升,但仍落后于香港的银行;四大商业银行的效率低于中小银行。市场势力与效率呈反向关系,而与稳定性的关系要区别对待:市场势力一方面增加了中小银行和香港银行的稳定性,另一方面也增加了四大商业银行和交通银行的经营风险。因此,继续深入金融自由化和银行业改革,恰当地引入一些竞争,会对中国商业银行经营的效率和稳定性起到积极的作用。     

Market reaction to increased loan loss reserves at money-center banks

On May 19, 1987, Citicorp announced (after markets closed) that it would add $3 billion to its loan loss reserve in recognition of the poor quality of outstanding loans to Third World countries. Eleven other money-center banks followed this policy over the next five months. The reported reactions of politicians, economists, and market analysts to the increased loan loss reserves varied from despair to praise. Nevertheless, the important issue is the investor's reaction as evidenced by changes in the market prices of the banks' stock. This article uses an event study methodology to shed some light on the issue.Florida Atlantic University     

Earnings forecast disclosure regulation and earnings management: evidence from Taiwan IPO firms

This study examines whether the Taiwanese regulation requiring disclosure of earnings forecasts in the IPOs resulted in disclosure of more optimistic earnings forecasts and whether the forecast error was reduced more by manipulating the reported earnings rather than revising the earnings forecasts to meet the forecast error threshold. The study is based on 759 forecasts issued by the Taiwanese IPO firms from 1994 to 2001, i.e. 8-year period after the regulation was modified to increase the forecast error threshold to 20%. The findings show that the disclosure regulation resulted in more optimistic forecasts than conservative forecasts, especially for firms expecting better performance in the forecast year compared to the previous year. Firms disclosing optimistic earnings forecasts engaged more in manipulation of reported earnings than revision of forecasts to meet the forecast error threshold. These findings thus suggest that the disclosure regulation resulted in earnings manipulation, which reduced the quality of reported earnings. We received valuable comments at the 2003 American Accounting Association and 2004 Euorpean Accounting Association annual meetings. We also thank the participants at the research seminars at Rutgers University, City University of Hong Kong, and Pace University, for their insightful comments. Picheng Lee especially thanks Pace University for 2003 summer research grant.     

The valuation properties of earnings and book values reported under IAS,domestic GAAP and U.S. GAAP: Evidence from China,Hong Kong,Japan, Korea and Singapore

This paper examines whether earnings or book value is the dominant valuation accounting measure for companies reporting under alternative accounting standards — International Accounting Standards (IAS)/International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (U.S. GAAP) or domestic accounting standards of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Singapore. Our sample consists of domestic firms in the five Asian countries and firms from these countries cross-listed in the United States as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) from 2002 to 2011. For domestic firms, book value is more informative than earnings for firms from Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Japan and Korea during 2002–2011 although their accounting standards are influenced by different systems. For the ADR sample, book value is more informative than earnings for U.S. GAAP reporters and reconcilers during 2002–2007. However, earnings are more informative than book value for U.S. GAAP reconcilers from China. After 2007, ADRs in our sample from Hong Kong, Japan and Korea continued to file under U.S. GAAP. Some ADRs from China filed under U.S. GAAP and some filed under IFRS. Earnings are more informative than book value for IFRS users; however, book value has higher incremental value relevance than earnings for U.S. GAAP users. We contribute to prior research by providing evidence on the valuation properties based on accounting measures reported under different GAAPs for the Asian countries.     

The Usefulness of Derivative-related Accounting Disclosures

The Financial Accounting Standards Board attempts to improve reporting and disclosure of derivative transactions through SFAS Nos. 105, 107, and 119. These statements require recognition of gains or losses on trading purpose derivatives, and disclosure of notional principal amounts, credit exposures, and fair values of trading and nontrading derivatives. Using a multiple regression model, this study investigates the relevance of these disclosures to stock returns for a sample of large banks. All derivatives-related disclosures, except for notional principal amounts, are found to contain new information not incorporated in market beta and earnings. These results support the Board's derivative disclosure requirements.     

Value relevance of conservative and non-conservative accounting information

The present paper examines effects of reporting conservatism on the value relevance of accounting earnings of a sample of Greek firms over the period from 1989 to 2003. The results of the paper indicate that conservatism is a salient feature of the Greek Accounting System. Moreover, the results depict that the level of conservatism has increased after the market crisis of 1999, potentially as a result of the additional regulation, imposed by the market authorities during the post-crisis period. Finally, the results show that there is a non-linear association between conservative reporting and value relevance of earnings. In particular, value relevance increases when moving from low-conservative firms to medium-conservative firms and decreases when moving further to high-conservative firms. Overall, the results of the paper lend empirical support to the theoretical underpinnings of Watts (2003a) who, on the one hand, report a number of arguments in favor of conservatism but, on the other hand, questions the practice of excessive conservative reporting as being a potential cause of the distortion of the earnings-returns relation.     

Information Content of Earnings and Earnings Components of Commercial Banks: Impact of SFAS No. 115

SFAS No. 115 modified classification of debt and equity securities held by firms and also modified the reporting format for unrealised gains/losses on security transactions (URGL). This study investigates whether implementation of SFAS No. 115 improved information content of earnings and earnings components of commercial banks. Improvement in the information content is measured by comparing the association between equity returns and earnings and earnings components of the post-adoption period of SFAS No. 115 with the pre-adoption period.The test results indicate that the association of equity returns with earnings components and aggregate earnings is significantly stronger in the post-adoption period compared to the pre-adoption period. The improvement is especially evident for the components of URGL and non-interest revenues. These results suggest that information provided by earnings components is considered more value relevant for investment decision after implementation of SFAS No. 115. Findings on non-interest revenues indicate that revenues from banking activities other than lending also play an important role in the commercial banks' profitability.     

The Characteristics and Valuation of Loss Reserves of Property Casualty Insurers

This study examines characteristics and valuation of claim loss reserves of property casualty insurers. Using SEC disclosures of revisions (development) in loss reserve estimates, we document substantial serial correlation in loss reserve development, indicating that reported loss reserves do not fully reflect available information, consistent with management exercising discretion over reported loss reserves. We find that loss reserve development reported one year after the balance sheet date has significant explanatory power for firm value incremental to book value of equity and earnings, suggesting investors at least partially identify management's influence on reported loss reserves, and adjust firm values accordingly.     

The spillover effect of disclosure rules and materiality thresholds: Evidence from profit warnings issued in Hong Kong market

Dual-listed firms simultaneously follow the relevant rules in their home country and in their cross-listed country. In contrast, other firms only listed in the cross-listed country are only subject to the local regulations. Previous literature has found evidence that cross-listing can improve firms’ information transparency because of more stringent listing rules in the cross-listed country. The existing research, however, has not paid enough attention to the potential influence of dual-listed firms and their home country institutional factors (e.g. unique disclosure policies) on other firms only listed in the cross-listed country (i.e. spillover effect). In the Hong Kong market, Chinese dual-listed firms are under the mandatory profit warning regulation of mainland China, but other firms listed only in Hong Kong only need to follow the voluntary disclosure rule of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Such a setting provides us with the opportunity to investigate a spillover effect, i.e. whether these Chinese dual-listed firms influence their peers only listed in Hong Kong to release profit warnings. We find that firms only listed in Hong Kong are more likely to issue profit warnings if their Chinese dual-listed peers have also issued warnings. We further find that this spillover effect increases with the market capitalization of Chinese dual-listed firms and increases with the market share of these firms before they dominate the industry. Lastly, due to an underlying duty to disclose material information in Hong Kong, the spillover effect is weaker for firms with large earnings surprises.     

Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information

Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of book value, earnings, and analysts' earnings forecasts which capture “other” information not yet reflected in the financial statements. Within this framework, stock returns reflect information from earnings and forecasts, each of which is different in terms of reliability and timeliness. For the period 1984–2012, this paper examines time trends and the influence of aggregate market conditions on the relative relevance of earnings and forecasts. In this context, relative relevance is defined as the incremental explanatory power of earnings or forecasts, relative to their combined explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns. This inquiry is motivated by anecdotal evidence and recent research, which suggests that aggregate market conditions influence the usefulness of accounting information for investors. The findings show that while the relative relevance of earnings has remained stable, the relative relevance of forecasts has increased over time. I also find that the relative relevance of earnings is higher in bad years, i.e. years with low market returns or elevated market uncertainty. Overall, the results reported in this study suggest that despite the increase in the relevance of timely “other” information, investors tend to rely more on reliable accounting information during bad years.     

分割资本市场下的会计信息价值研究

本文采用事件研究和面板数据回归方法对我国A股～H股双重上市公司境内外报表披露的会计盈余和帐面净值与股票超额收益的相关性进行了研究。分析表明,在A股市场上,境内报表披露的会计盈余等信息与A股超额收益之间没有显著的价值相关性;境内外报表关于会计盈余和账面净值的调整值对A股价格也没有影响;在H股市场,会计信息与股价之间的相关性较强,不仅境外报表披露的主要会计指标能够有效解释年报披露期间H股超额收益,而且境内外报表的会计盈余和账面净值调整值还具有增量信息价值。由此我们认为中国内地资本市场与香港资本市场的分割效应较为明显。     

Value relevance of earnings: Evidence from Middle Eastern and North African Countries

Researchers as well as regulators are increasingly more interested in enhancing their understanding of the factors that influence value relevance of reported earnings in financial statements. In the light of globalization and increased exposure to international accounting practices, a better comprehension of factors contributing to or reducing value relevance of earnings is essential. This paper investigates the value relevance of earnings and its components for a number of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. Additionally, the paper examines how differences in levels of mandated disclosures, source of accounting standards, and legal systems moderate the informativeness of earnings to investors. We find that mandated disclosure and source of accounting standard, (especially non-governmental source) are positively associated with earnings informativeness. Additionally, MENA countries with French civil law and systems have lower value relevance relative to countries in our sample with English and related legal codes. Further, the firms that have adopted international financial reporting standards have higher value relevance than firms in MENA countries which adhere to local standards.     

The Impact of SFAS No. 114 on the Linear Information Dynamic for Commercial Banks

Increase (decrease) in loan loss provisions would decrease (increases) bank earnings, but increase (decreases) regulatory capital. Previous studies have separately documented earnings and capital management behavior via loan loss provisions by commercial banks. However, it is difficult to isolate a bank's demand for increasing earnings from its demand for regulatory capital because earnings is a source of capital. Based on the objective bank function, this study investigates the impact of SFAS No. 114 on the information content of loan loss provisions in relation to both earnings quality and capital adequacy in a linear information dynamic framework. Test results show that the association between market value with loan loss provisions became significantly stronger for commercial banks in the post- than in the pre-adoption period. As a result, SFAS No. 114 is also found to positively affect the association of market value with both bank earnings and regulatory capital through the clean surplus relation because of the higher value relevance of loan loss provisions. The findings thus provide empirical evidence that SFAS No. 114 has significantly complemented banking regulations in enhancing (reducing) the (dispersion from the) accounting measurement construct of loan loss provisions.     

内地银行赴港上市后面临的法律风险及其防范措施

内地银行到香港上市将面临新的法律风险。包括商业银行及其员工的违法行为、商业银行经营管理不善以及内地法律政策变化带来的风险。商业银行作为第一责任者应深入学习香港法律和内地法律，提高法律意识；完善公司治理机制和内控机制，强化董事会职能，合法合规经营，防止内幕交易和违规关联交易，防止出现大案要案；制定详细的信息披露制度并严格执行；高度重视投资者关系管理工作等。国家也有责任为商业银行防范法律风险提供环境和政策支持，包括主要以法律手段管理经济；以规范、统一的方式发布政策；提供相应的政策支持，如减轻税负、开展综合经营试点、实施员工激励计划等。     

内地银行赴港上市后面临的法律风险及其防范措施

内地银行到香港上市将面临新的法律风险。包括商业银行及其员工的违法行为、商业银行经营管理不善以及内地法律政策变化带来的风险。商业银行作为第一责任者应深入学习香港法律和内地法律,提高法律意识;完善公司治理机制和内控机制,强化董事会职能,合法合规经营,防止内幕交易和违规关联交易,防止出现大案要案;制定详细的信息披露制度并严格执行;高度重视投资者关系管理工作等。国家也有责任为商业银行防范法律风险提供环境和政策支持,包括主要以法律手段管理经济;以规范、统一的方式发布政策;提供相应的政策支持,如减轻税负、开展综合经营试点、实施员工激励计划等。     

Investor legal protection and earnings management: A study of Chinese H-shares and Hong Kong shares

Under the unique “one country, two systems” arrangement, the more stringent investor protection rules in Hong Kong are not enforceable in firms that are incorporated in China but listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange (H-shares). As such, H-shares and other local Hong Kong firms are subject to different investor protection regimes in the same stock market. We find that H-shares are associated with higher earnings management than local Hong Kong firms after controlling for disparity in economic development, types of controlling shareholders and other factors. More importantly, this relationship is weaker after China implemented the Securities Law in 1999. The results are robust after considering the dual-listing status of H-shares and board characteristics. These results provide direct evidence showing the effect of investor legal protection on financial reporting quality.     

Earnings Metrics,Information Processing,and Price Efficiency in Laboratory Markets

An enduring issue in financial reporting is whether and how salient summary measures of firm performance (“earnings metrics”) affect market price efficiency. In laboratory markets, we test the effects of salient earnings metrics, which vary in how they combine persistent and transitory elements, on investor information search, beliefs about value, offers to trade, and market price efficiency. We find that including transitory elements in salient earnings metrics causes traders to search unnecessarily for further information about these elements and to overestimate their effect on fundamental value relative to a rational benchmark. In contrast, separately displaying persistent elements in earnings increases the accuracy of traders’ value estimates. Prices generally reflect traders’ beliefs about value, and prices are most efficient when transitory elements are excluded from earnings metrics entirely. Our study contributes to research on salience effects in financial reporting by showing that including transitory elements in salient earnings metrics causes inefficient information search and biased beliefs about value that can aggregate to affect market prices. We also contribute to research in experimental markets by showing that redundant disclosure is not always beneficial; redundant disclosure of transitory earnings elements, in particular, appears to have negative consequences for investor behavior and market efficiency.     

Earnings Performance and Discretionary Disclosure

While the influence of earnings performance on disclosure is a fundamental issue in the disclosure literature, our understanding of this influence is limited. In this paper, I examine a comprehensive set of disclosures from a sample of firms experiencing an extended period of seasonally adjusted earnings increases. I study how these firms adjust disclosure in response to earnings increases, how disclosure changes as the period of strong earnings performance nears an end and how firms disclose during a subsequent period of earnings decline. I find an increase in disclosure during the period of increased earnings. This increase is pervasive across all types of disclosure and tends to be bundled with earnings announcements. The market responds positively to this disclosure. Firms continue to disclose at a high level as they approach earnings declines. However, they shift to disclosures that focus on the positive short-term results and do not discuss the impending decreases. While this behavior is systematic, the market does not appear to anticipate the subsequent earnings declines. Once the firms announce earnings declines, the magnitude of disclosure returns to the level provided prior to the increased earnings.     

Evidence from China on the value relevance of operating income vs. below-the-line items

This study investigates the value relevance of operating income vs. below-the-line items in the Chinese stock market. The motivations for this study are twofold. First, there is a need for empirical evidence of the value relevance of earnings components given that previous findings of value relevance in China at the aggregate level have often been questioned in the literature. Second, the reporting environment for earnings components in China provides an interesting opportunity to present additional evidence on the pricing of persistent vs. less persistent earnings. Chinese GAAP is more specific in defining the scope and specifying the format of reporting earnings components with different levels of persistence. In addition, differing from the U.S. evidence in the extant literature, below-the-line items in China is overwhelmingly income-increasing and frequently account for a large percentage of a firm's reported net income. By linking valuation analysis with earnings time-series properties, we present additional evidence to support value relevance in China: An earnings component is impounded in stock prices as long as it is persistent and nonpersistent below-the-line items are value irrelevant. However, the time-series properties of earnings components are not fully priced by the market. The earnings-response coefficients are larger for below-the-line items than for operating income, although below-the-line items are less persistent and have lower predictive power. In discussing this pricing anomaly, we identify some unique institutional factors that may be responsible for the results.     

The quality of financial reporting in China: An examination from an accounting restatement perspective

This study uses restatements to reveal the poor quality of past accounting information reported within China’s capital market. We show that up to a quarter of listed firms in mainland China explicitly admitted the poor quality of their financial information by restating their previous financial reports between 1999 and 2005. Many of these firms managed their earnings mainly via below-the-line items to avoid losses and promote survival, rather than to support refinancing goals. Such poor-quality financial reporting is more likely among firms that have weaker profitability and a shareholder base that is state-controlled, with diffused ownership and a relatively low proportion of shares held by institutional investors. Furthermore, we find the market to be relatively insensitive to such admissions. Investors’ reactions capture only the earnings information of the current reported year, rather than also reflecting the concurrently revealed correction of past financial reporting. However, the equity market does not completely ignore the earnings information. Investors’ reliance on earnings is merely low relative to the mature US market. These findings demonstrate that accounting credibility in China has low value; providing poor-quality financial information bears little cost because various market mechanisms fail to deter such behavior. Nevertheless, regulators’ ongoing efforts to enhance the quality of financial information and disclosure among listed firms are still fruitful. The frequency of restatements decreased over our sample period, which reinforces the current regulatory prospects and strategies for further improving China’s capital markets.