Contingent capital and bank risk‐taking among British banks before the First World War1

The recent financial turmoil highlights the incentive of highly leveraged financial institutions to take excessive risk, given the protection of limited liability. During the nineteenth and early twentieth century, many banks operated under liability rules which obligated shareholders to bear larger costs of bank insolvency in the form of contingent, or even unlimited, liability. This article examines the empirical relationship between the size of banks' contingent liability and their risk‐taking behaviour using data on British banks from 1878 to 1912. We find that banks with more contingent liability appear to have taken less risk. We also find evidence that the risk‐reducing effects of contingent liability were larger for banks with higher leverage, suggesting that contingent capital mitigated the moral hazard problem at banks.     

Bank-specific determinants of nonperforming assets of Indian banks

The paper examines the role of bank-specific variables in explaining the dynamics of non-performing assets (NPAs) of Indian banks in a panel data framework over the post liberalisation period, 1995–2011. The results have been derived after controlling for macroeconomic factors like real GDP, inflation, exchange rate etc. Applying several variants of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique in dynamic models, we find that that there is significant time persistence of NPAs in Indian banking system. We also find that larger banks are more prone to default than smaller banks. We find support for the ‘bad management hypothesis’ as we observe that an increase in profit level of the banks reduces NPAs in the next period. Lagged capital adequacy ratio as an important prudential indicator also significantly reduces current NPAs of banks. The paper also draws some important policy implications about NPA management.     

Does Public Country-by-Country Reporting Deter Tax Avoidance and Income Shifting? Evidence from the European Banking Industry*

In this study, we examine the effect of increased tax transparency on the tax planning behavior of European banks. In 2014, the European Union introduced public country-by-country reporting requirements to the banking industry. Treating this new requirement as an exogenous shock, we find limited evidence consistent with a decline in income shifting by the banks' financial affiliates in the post-adoption period (starting from 2015). We do not, however, find robust evidence of a significant change in the consolidated book effective tax rates among the affected banks. Our findings suggest that increased transparency from public country-by-country reporting can deter tax-motivated income shifting but that it did not appear to materially influence the banks' overall tax avoidance. Our findings have policy implications for the ongoing debate between the European Parliament, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and accounting standard-setting bodies on whether to require multinationals to publish country-by-country reports.     

股权结构与独立董事对大股东侵占的治理效果

本文以2004年在沪深股市交易的1172个A股非金融上市公司为样本,将样本分别按第一大股东持股比例、所有权性质和独立董事占董事会成员比例分咸3组、2组和3组,共组成18个组合,先後考察了股权集中和私有制封大股东侵占的治理效果,在第一大股东持股比例与股权性质没有差异的情况下独立董事的治理效果。研究发现私有制并没有提高、也没有降低大股东侵占的概率;股权集中则在一定程度上降低了大股东侵占的概率;国有企业的独立董事比例与大股东侵占概率负相关;当私有产权控股股东持股比例较低时,独立董事比例的提高有利于降低大股东侵占的概率。     

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Japan: Evidence from banks' balance sheets

We examine how banks' responses to monetary policy vary according to their balance sheet using Japanese bank data from 1975 to 1999. We find that the effect of monetary policy on lending is stronger for banks that are smaller, less liquid, and more abundant with capital. The effects of bank balance sheet on monetary transmission are different by bank types, policy stances and borrowers' industries. Our results imply that a lending channel of monetary transmission exists, that the effect of expansionary monetary policy is attenuated if banks' capital is scarce, and that the effect of monetary policy on the allocation of funds depends on banks' balance sheets. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 380–405.     

Indonesia's New Banking Law

An accumulation of old banking laws was replaced with a single new one early in 1992. The previous focus on the lending side of banks' activities has been replaced by greater emphasis on their deposit mobilisation and intermediation functions. Distinctions between commercial, savings and development banks have been dropped—the only functional distinction remaining being that between banks which offer cheque account services and the much smaller ones which do not. Important changes relating to ownership include placing the state banks on the same legal footing as those from the private sector, allowing them to sell their shares to the public, and permitting foreigners to purchase shares in domestic banks listed on the stock exchange. Those who breach the new law are liable to heavy fines and gaol terms. The law allows the government to require all (not just state) banks to undertake special developmental or equity-oriented programs.     

Impacts of Ownership Balance and Nonexecutive Directors on Bank Performance and Risk Taking: Evidence from City Commercial Banks in China

This paper investigates the impacts of nongovernmental stake, ownership balance, and nonexecutive directors on bank performance and risk taking in city commercial banks (CCBs) in China. We find that ownership balance can improve CCBs’ financial performance and reduce their bankruptcy risk as well as nonperforming loan level. Nonexecutive directors can help reduce bankruptcy risk, but have no significant effect on performance or nonperforming loans. The impacts of ownership balance and nonexecutive directors become more prominent when the nongovernmental stake is relatively high, suggesting that mixed ownership reform can promote bank performance and risk control via these two avenues.     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

Bank Income Diversification,Asset Correlation and Systemic Risk

This paper explores whether the asset correlations among the non-interest activities of banks are the key causes for enhancing the bank diversification-systemic risk nexus. Our empirical evidence indicates that banks' income diversification significantly raises systemic risk. After removing those banks with high asset correlations, the effect of individual banks' diversification on banking systemic risk turns insignificant or even inverse. The results show that high asset correlations among banks could introduce bank failures, thereby leading to higher systemic risk in the financial sector.     

金融科技对银行业务的冲击影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

金融科技加快了银行“金融脱媒”的进程,研究金融科技对银行业务影响作用机理对商业银行的转型至关重要。利用VAR模型分析了2017—2022年商业银行贷款、存款、手续费及佣金净收入及对应市场第三方互联网支付交易规模等季度数据,通过建立VAR模型来分析金融科技对商业银行资产、负债、中间业务的冲击程度和相应解释贡献度。研究发现第三方互联网支付交易规模对商业银行的资产业务在前五期产生了较为明显的反向作用;此外余额宝的货币市场基金以及第三方互联网支付交易两者的联合依次对商业银行的负债、中间业务产生正向、反向的作用。     

Joint Tests of Signaling and Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions*

We examine whether and how managers use loan loss provisions to smooth income and to signal their private information about their banks' future prospects. Our paper highlights that the use of the loan loss provision to accomplish more than one objective gives rise to situation‐specific costs and benefits of manipulating the provision up or down. We hypothesize that relatively undervalued banks have greater incentives to signal their future prospects than fairly valued banks and that banks' incentives to smooth intensify as premanaged earnings deviate from norms. On the basis of these conjectures, we categorize sample banks into subgroups that are predicted to use loan loss provisions consistent with their situation‐specific incentives. This allows us to refine the research methods used in prior research to examine heterogeneous incentives. While we find evidence consistent with the use of loan loss provisions to smooth earnings, particularly when premanaged earnings are extreme, our evidence on signaling is less consistent. In particular, our signaling results depend on the introduction of an interaction term that has not been used in prior research. We also document that the intensity of smoothing (signaling) is not uniform across the sample. In addition to being a function of the incentive to smooth (signal), it also is a function of the incentive to signal (smooth).     

Independent directors and firm performance in family controlled firms: evidence from Indonesia

We analyse the relationship between board structure and firm performance in family‐controlled firms using a sample of Indonesian non‐financial companies. We find that the share of independent directors on the board has an insignificant relationship with firm performance. We suspect that the result is driven by the lack of institutional reforms in relation to the appointment of independent directors. Our analysis shows strong empirical support for the proposition that family control (family ownership and family involvement on the board) is negatively related to firm performance. However, the significant effect of family ownership disappears when family involvement on the board is taken into the model. This result indicates that family ownership is more detrimental to firm performance whenever the family is highly involved in control decisions. Our results suggest that Indonesia needs to implement governance reforms that prevent majority owners from exercising excessive control over firms.     

股份制商业银行治理:基于年报的实证分析

采用2001-2003年间11家商业银行的19个年报样本为依据,对我国股份制商业银行的治理机制及其与银行绩效的关系进行实证分析,发现样本银行股权结构并没有对银行绩效产生影响,董事会规模和高管人员薪酬激励对银行绩效有积极的作用,而独立董事比例和董事会会议次数却对银行绩效产生了负面影响;此外银行规模也是提升银行绩效的重要因素。     

Liquidity support to banks during Indonesia's financial crisis

During the 1997–98 financial crisis, Bank Indonesia provided liquidity support to many banks experiencing difficulties. This policy became controversial because of the magnitude of the likely losses to the government, which in the end would have to be borne by the general public. Suspicions of corruption involving bankers and officials of Bank Indonesia fuelled the debate. Surprisingly, however, concerns of this kind have not been raised in relation to the far larger amount of support provided to banks by the government in the form of recapitalisation bonds. The public's lack of understanding of the operations of the banking sector further complicated the debate. This paper attempts to shed some light on the central bank's actions and on the proposed solutions to the problems that arose from them.     

Cost and profit efficiency of Chinese banks: A non-parametric analysis

Using a non-parametric technique for data from 1995 to 2004, we investigate the cost and profit efficiency of 28 Chinese commercial banks. We examine the influence of ownership type, size, risk profile, profitability and key environmental changes on the bank efficiency using a Tobit regression. Consistent with the existing literature, we find that profit efficiency levels are well below those of cost efficiency. This suggests that the most important inefficiencies are on the revenue side. Our findings are also consistent with prior evidence on ownership and efficiency: joint-stock banks (national and city-based), on average, appear to be more cost- and profit-efficient than state-owned banks while medium-sized banks are significantly more efficient than small and large banks. These and other results suggest the need for speedier reforms to open the banking market, improving risk management, minimizing the government's capital subsidy and diversifying ownership of Chinese banks.     

Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross-Country Econometric Analysis

Blinder et al. (2001) argues that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets. We examine this claim by studying for a set of seven industrialized countries whether selected central banks' moves toward more open disclosure during the 1990s improved or worsened the predictability of the corresponding national financial markets. Employing methodologies analogous to Campbell and Shiller (1991), we find that for all countries, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on the respective government bonds across most maturity lengths, and that the expectations hypothesis has generally performed better at the short end of the yield curve. Our results also tentatively show that the effects are stronger for central banks that made the move to greater disclosure, compared to those banks that resisted increasing the public's information set. These findings are consistent with Tabellini's (1987) view that central bank secrecy will hinder the smooth functioning of financial markets.     

高管团队特征与银行绩效的关系研究——基于银行创新的中介效应

基于28个上市银行2009—2018年的非平衡面板数据,构建固定效应模型和中介效应模型,实证研究高管团队特征、银行创新以及银行绩效三者之间的互动关系.研究结果表明,银行创新在高管团队平均年龄、平均任期与经营绩效的关系中起到部分中介效应,中介效应占比分别为27.21％ 和55.32％.银行创新能力在高管平均学历、女性高管占比与银行绩效之间的中介效应不显著.按照产权性质进行分组研究,发现国有银行与非国有银行创新能力所发挥的中介效应存在差异.     

基于城市商业银行的资本缓冲周期性行为研究

运用我国50家城市商业银行2005-2014年度的非平衡面板数据进行单步系统GMM估计,论文研究了资本缓冲与经济周期之间的关系,并分析了审慎监管压力和股权异质性结构特征对资本缓冲周期性行为的影响。实证分析结果表明城商行资本缓冲与经济周期之间呈现负相关,即资本缓冲具有显著的顺周期性。而处于审慎监管压力下的城商行,其资本缓冲的顺周期性特征较其他城商行有所减弱。此外,股权特征中控股性质和有无境外投资者持股可以影响城商行资本缓冲的顺周期性行为,但效果并不显著。因此,对于城商行而言,要加强银行体系的建设,建立“缓冲资本池”,并执行监管部门的审慎政策,以保持自身的稳定。     

Persistent and transient inefficiency: Explaining the low efficiency of Chinese big banks

A vast literature shows that China's five largest state-owned banks (the Big Five) suffer from low cost efficiency. We offer a new explanation of this situation, by decomposing overall efficiency of Chinese banks into two parts: persistent and transient efficiency. Using the model of Kumbhakar, Lien, and Hardaker (2014) based on the stochastic frontier approach, we measure persistent and transient efficiency for a large sample of 166 Chinese banks over the period 2008–2015. We show that the lower efficiency of China's Big Five banks is almost entirely due to low persistent cost efficiency, indicating structural problems. On the contrary, the Big Five banks transient efficiency is similar to other Chinese banks, reflecting a good aptitude to minimize their costs in the short-term. Our findings support the view that major structural reforms are needed to enhance the efficiency of China's Big Five banks.     

Liquidity Risk and Banks' Asset Composition: Implications for Monetary Policy

Monetary growth models in which the government is a net debtor demonstrate that inflation adversely affects capital formation through the crowding out effect. Interestingly, the results are at odds with empirical evidence. In particular, recent studies point to an asymmetric relationship between inflation and the real economy across countries. Specifically, inflation and output are negatively correlated in poor countries. In contrast, inflation is associated with higher levels of economic activity in advanced economies. I present a monetary growth model with public debt, where the exposure to risk is inversely related to the level of income. In this setting, I demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of capital of the economy. In poor countries, banks' portfolios consist primarily of government liabilities. Therefore, a higher rate of money creation inhibits capital formation in these economies. In contrast, banks devote more resources toward productive uses in advanced countries. Consequently, monetary policy generates a Tobin effect.