Catching up to the European core: Portuguese economic growth, 1910–1990

This paper analyses the causes of Portuguese catching-up to the European core, in the 20th century, within a growth accounting framework. It concludes that investment in human and physical capital was the main driving force of economic growth and that variation in output growth rates are attributable to changes in total factor productivity growth. The paper explains the decline in TFP growth after 1973 in terms of structural change in the industrial sector.     

Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912: A reappraisal of the evidence

This paper revisits the issue of the productivity performance of Britain’s railways with an improved dataset and modern cliometrics. We find a slowdown in TFP growth between 1850 and 1870, after which it stabilized at about 1.1%. An analysis of company-level productivity performance reveals large discrepancies in TFP growth and substantial cost inefficiency. The evidence suggests that there was managerial failure in companies with agency problems in a context of collusion and high entry barriers. A wider implication is that the neoclassical exoneration of late-Victorian British management may be less convincing for the services sector than for manufacturing.     

Efficiency and productivity analyses of Indonesian manufacturing industries

This study estimates the technical efficiencies and total factor productivity (TFP) growths in food, textile, chemical and metal products industries from 1993 to 2000 in Indonesia by using the stochastic frontier model. Furthermore, the determinants of inefficiency are also analyzed and TFP growth is decomposed into technological progress, a scale component, and efficiency growth. The results reveal that the food, textile, chemical and metal products sectors are on average 50.79%, 47.89%, 68.65% and 68.91% technically efficient, respectively. It is noted that ownership contributed to technical inefficiencies in the food sector; location and size contributed to technical inefficiencies in the textile sector, whereas size, ownership and age contributed to inefficiencies in the chemical and metal products sectors. We note that productivity in food, textile, and metal products sectors decreased at the rate of 2.73%, 0.26%, and 1.65%, respectively, but increased at a rate of 0.5% in the chemical sector. The decomposition of TFP growth indicates that the growths are driven positively by technical efficiency changes and negatively by technological progress in all four sectors.     

中国经济增长来源实证研究-基于扩展的索洛模型

依据新古典经济增长理论,建立扩展的索洛模型,对物质资本、人力资本以及全要素生产率对中国经济增长的贡献进行实证分析,得出人力资本对我国经济增长的贡献度大于物质资本,以技术进步为代表的全要素生产率增长呈现阶段性特征,是转型期经济可持续增长源动力的结论。     

The Panda that grew

China, the Panda, ranks among the world's fastest growing economies. Describing that growth, identifying and quantifying its causes, and examining international competitiveness, a growth corollary, on the assumption that China is structurally similar to a sample of 121 countries, are the purposes of this paper. The inquiry presents economic statistics, including those on convergence, by half decade from the prereform years through the Asian currency crisis. It then sketches a model that links growth to determinants that include total factor productivity (TFP). After estimating parameters it quantifies the growth contributions from the separate causes. On international competitiveness, it studies China's historical record and projects competitiveness into the near term. The paper closes with policy implications.     

Medium and long-term impact of SARS on total factor productivity（TFP): Empirical evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises

This study examines the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic on the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial enterprises using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results exhibit that SARS significantly reduces TFP by 3.12–5.81%, lasting for three to five years. Further, this impact is heterogeneous across industries. A significantly negative impact is found in labor intensive industries, while capital and technology intensive industries is less affected. Contrarily, a significantly positive impact is observed in those industries necessary for life and production. Mechanism tests show that the impact on TFP is caused by a reduction in labour productivity and a decrease in innovation investment after SARS outbreak. This study highlights the importance of more targeted policy on Covid-19 and similar epidemics both in industrial, national and international level.     

Human capital and economic growth in Spain, 1850–2000

We investigate human capital accumulation in Spain using income- and education-based alternative approaches. We, then, assess human capital impact on labor productivity growth and discuss the implications of its alternative measures for TFP growth. Trends in human capital are similar with either measure but the skill-premium approach fits better Spanish historical experience. As education is a high income elastic good, human capital growth computed with the education-based approach seems upward biased for the recent past. Human capital provided a positive albeit small contribution to labor productivity growth facilitating technological innovation.     

The origin of FDI and domestic firms’ productivity—Evidence from Vietnam

This study examines how the origin of foreign investors affects the degree of horizontal and vertical technological spillovers, using firm-level panel data from Vietnam in 2002–2011. The results show a positive association between the presence of Asian firms in downstream sectors and the productivity of Vietnamese firms in supply industries, but no significant relationship in the case of European and North American affiliates. Within Asia, we find that foreign direct investment from China and Taiwan generates positive vertical spillovers to local suppliers. We hypothesize that distance, preferential trade agreements, and institutional or technological differences that affect the degree of local sourcing significantly impact vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment. The horizontal spillover effects are in general negative and statistically significant. Various robustness checks are performed.     

Growth and Productivity in Singapore Manufacturing Industries: 1975–1998

Consistently defined price and volume relatives are constructed for 18 manufacturing industries under the two-digit industry classifications officially adopted in 1996. Industry-specific output and materials price deflators for the period 1974–1998 are also constructed. Where the comparison is possible, we arrive at a markedly different conclusion from those in Tsao (1982, 1985 ) and Young (1994 ), and narrow the cause to a difference in the choice of output measure. The updated accounts show that the conventional index number measure of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for Singapore manufacturing is 2.7% per annum for the period 1975–1998, and exhibits a cyclical pattern over time.     

我国各要素对经济增长贡献率的实证研究

文章采用1978～2007年的数据,用索洛余值法分析各要素对经济增长的影响情况,将我国的经济增长分解为资本投入的贡献,劳动力投入的贡献,全要素生产率的贡献。实证表明:我国总产出中资本投入的贡献最大,年均达到57%;全要素生产率的贡献较大,对总产出的贡献达到28%;劳动力投入的贡献最小,只有15%左右。     

THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA'S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A CROSS‐PROVINCE ANALYSIS

This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.     

PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT OF THE MODERN VARIETIES OF RICE IN INDIA

The present paper analyzed the long‐term yield growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth by applying Tornqvist‐Theil index method for two periods, namely, 1970–85 (early Green Revolution) and 1986–2000 (late Green Revolution), for major rice‐growing states of India. The yield data shows an increasing long‐term growth trend throughout the Green Revolution period in irrigated states where modern variety (MV) adoption was nearly complete. However, yield advances started to slow down for intensive irrigated rice systems in the 1990s, whereas rainfed ecosystems have increased during the late Green Revolution period. The domestic spillovers of MV from irrigated to rainfed states is likely to be one of the contributing factors to increased TFP growth in ranifed areas after the 1980s. This implies that the MV of rice developed for irrigated ecosystems have also benefited substantially the rainfed‐dominant eastern Indian states in the long run where partial irrigation facilities such as shallow tube wells were created after the mid‐1980s.     

Is There a ＂Middle-income Trap＂？ Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China

Through review of relevant studies and analysis,this article indicates that the "middle-income trap " is in line with the framework of the mainstream economic growth theories, and,therefore,it is a useful concept through which we can analyze economic growth phenomena in specific economic growth phases.The empirical experiences of many countries also indicate that at specific middle-income stages,economies with high rates of growth tend to encounter economic slowdown or even stagnation.The article shows that China is facing the challenge of determining how to move smoothly beyond the middle-income stage of economic development,while taking into account the shifting population structure,changing resource endowment and growth patterns.The article,drawing on international experiences, puts forward several policy suggestions relating to improvement in total factor productivity, expansion of human capital accumulation and deepening of system and government function reforms.     

中国汽车产业全要素生产率的微观测量

判断我国汽车产业“以市场换技术”策略成效如何,可以通过对行业全要素生产率的测量予以回答。为了克服传统（宏观）方法估计行业全要素生产率的不足,本文从微观角度,利用汽车企业数据完成了对汽车行业全要素生产率的测量,并通过面板固定效应法、Olley＆Pakes法与Levinsohn＆Petrin法等多种方法的横向比较,得出较为一致的结论。结果显示,1999—2007年我国汽车行业整体全要素生产率明显提升,细分为各控股类型、各子行业研究亦是如此;国有控股汽车企业全要素生产率整体低于非国有控股汽车企业,但由于上升较快,逐步与非国有控股企业趋同。由此说明,“以市场换技术”策略已取得实效,汽车产业正从“引进-吸收-消化”向“创新-超越”转型,继续加强技术研发,构筑中国汽车国际竞争力成为产业发展的主要路径。     

海南的资本投入与全要素生产率

本文从投资效率出发估计海南资本存量数据,并运用索洛余值法、隐含变量法和潜在产出法讨论了1978～2006年海南的全要素生产率变动。分析表明:海南全要素生产率增长与海南宏观经济波动趋势较一致,海南的经济增长主要依靠全要素生产率的贡献。     

技术进步促进云南经济增长了吗？

基于索洛增长模型,测度了1978-2013年云南省全要素生产率及对经济增长的贡献率。研究发现,云南省全要素生产率波动较大,呈现先急剧上升后平稳下降的态势。技术进步对经济增长的贡献远远低于同期全国平均水平,经济增长仍处于依赖资本与资源投入推动的粗放型、外延扩大式增长。     

Assessing the output and productivity growth of Malaysia’s manufacturing sector

Given the importance of the manufacturing sector in the second-tier newly industrializing economy of Malaysia, this paper uses the stochastic frontier approach to assess the growth potential of this sector. This is performed by first estimating the production function by using panel data comprising 28 manufacturing industries over the period of 1981–1996. Unlike previous studies that used the growth accounting approach, here output growth is not just decomposed into input growth and total factor productivity growth but total factor productivity growth is further decomposed into technological progress and technical efficiency, thereby providing more direction for policy making.