Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia

In recent years, many countries have adopted macroprudential measures to safeguard financial stability, in particular to deal with the credit and asset price cycles driven by global capital flows. Using a newly constructed database on macroprudential instruments and capital flow measures in 13 Asian economies and 33 economies in other regions for the period 2000–2013, the paper formulates various macroprudential policy indices, aggregating sub-indices on key instruments. Asian economies appear to have made greater use of macroprudential tools, especially housing-related measures, than their counterparts in other regions. The effects of macroprudential policy are assessed through an event study, cross-country macro panel regressions, and bank-level micro panel regressions. The analysis suggests that housing-related macroprudential instruments-particularly loan-to-value ratio caps and housing tax measures—have helped curb housing price growth, credit growth, and bank leverage in Asia.     

How growth deceleration in the PRC affects other Asian economies

Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbours have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical techniques are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (1) a single‐equation approach that captures the trade channel; and (2) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will have a non‐negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asian economies. An out‐of‐sample analysis to tease out the effects of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant.     

Efficiency change and growth in productivity: the Asian growth experience

This paper focuses on identifying the sources of productivity growth in ten Asian economies including China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4. We calculate productivity growth and its components using distance-function-based Malmquist productivity indexes following Färe, Grosskopf, Norris, and Zhang (1994a). Hong Kong and Singapore are found to have the capabilities to shift the grand frontier of the APEC economies. But the productivity divergence might have occurred since the 70’s. The FDI contributes to the Asian growth either through catching-up or through technological innovations when a sufficient learning capacity is available in the host economy.     

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

This paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We use a dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allows for fixed effects and endogeneity. We observe a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980–2009. We detect an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We find that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determine that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting.     

Robust determinants of growth in Asian developing economies: A Bayesian panel data model averaging approach

This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a nonlinear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian developing countries over the period 1980–2009. Our empirical evidence on the determinants of growth suggests that an economy's investment ratio is positively correlated to growth, whereas government consumption expenditure and terms of trade are negatively correlated. We also find evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth, that is, inflation impedes economic growth when it exceeds 5.43% but does not have any significant effect on growth below that level.     

Asia’s contagious financial crisis and its impact on Korea

Asian countries have, from 1965 to the early 1990s, shown remarkable growth performance. The recent financial crisis, however, has brought disastrous effects on these growing economies. The region has been suffering from high inflation, massive unemployment, and large drops in growth rates. The major cause of the crisis can be attributed to the international financial markets. International financial institutions lent without serious examination of the borrowers’ ability to repay. In this regard, the ratings agencies were also responsible for the worsening of the crisis. Their ratings did not give correct signals to the lenders. The borrowers’ speculative activities and their subsequent failures were a direct cause that led to the crisis. A second cause lies in the structural problems in these economies. There are still covert dealings between government officials and businesses, and these economies lack transparency. These deficiencies greatly distort allocation of resources in the economies. There should be a global risk-management system to prevent such a crisis from happening again. This risk-management system would give an early warning signal. Creditors should coordinate their efforts to resolve the liquidity crisis in the Asian countries. Coordinated loans and partial forgiving of debts will be helpful to both debtors and creditors.     

Human Resource Development in the Asia–Pacific

The literature on education, training and other aspects of human resource development in the Asia–Pacific region is still under-developed. Many country studies are emerging, together with regional programs initiated under ASEAN, APEC and PECC auspices. Many East Asian countries have proved that a human resource development-led strategy promotes economic growth and development. Upgrading of education and skills relevant to R&D and international competitiveness in technology-intensive manufacturing and services are evident in some newly-industrialising economies in the region. But more efforts are needed.     

Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

Re-examining foreign direct investment,exports, and economic growth in asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration

This paper examines whether there is a long-run relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and gross domestic product (GDP) in selected Asian economies. We use a newly developed cointegration test, the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to examine this long-run relationship. The motivation for using the bootstrap methodology is to generate and apply critical values for the ARDL test that are valid and appropriate for the specific data sets used. Further, the bootstrap tests allow for endogeneity and feedback that may exist. Pesaran et al. (2001) highlighted the possibility of degenerate cases, but empirical studies in general ignore these and may conclude that cointegration exists when it does not. Our tests fail to find evidence of cointegration when GDP is the dependent variable. The absence of a long-run forcing relation from FDI and exports to GDP implies that FDI and exports were not the sole sources of economic growth in our selected Asian economies.     

Openness and growth in East Asia after the Asian crisis

Openness with respect to trade in goods, services and foreign direct investment has a positive marginal effect on growth. The fast-growing East Asian economies were early openers, and this contributed to their fast growth. However, East Asian countries are not relatively open today. This factor, together with the convergence effect of fast growth in the past, imply that their economies will slow down. Their growth prospects are further reduced by growing geographic discrimination against their goods and services in world markets, and the slow down of the Japanese economy.     

China–Japan–United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China–Japan–United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.     

Does rapid economic growth enhance democratization? Time-series evidence from high performing Asian economies

We examine the long-run relationship between economic growth and democratization for the high performing Asian economies using a time-series technique called the autoregressive distributive lag bounds test. For all eight of such economies, we do not find a statistically significant long-run relationship running from growth to democratization. Instead, we find a statistically significant long-run relationship running from democratization to growth, which can be either positive or negative. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our results suggest that rapid economic growth in the high performing Asian economies appears to have little effect on democratization in the long run.     

The Total Factor Productivity Debate: Determinants of Economic Growth in East Asia

This survey article examines the recent studies of technological change or total factor productivity (TFP) as a source of growth in East Asian economies. The major objective of the paper is to show that in the end the importance of technological change in economic growth depends largely on how TFP is defined and measured. The conclusions drawn by Alwyn Young and Paul Krugman are based too much upon the assumption that all technological change is TFP. Section II reviews the conceptual and empirical literature on this subject since the 1950s. Section III surveys the TFP studies of East Asian economies, with particular reference to the recent claims that TFP is generally insignificant. Section IV discusses the prospects for East Asian economic growth and dispels the pessimism of such authors as Young and Krugman.     

The growth path of the dynamic Asian economies

The rapid and sustained growth of several Asian economies led researchers, policymakers, and decision‐makers in the world of international business to search for a plausible Asian model of growth. Numerous explanations of the dynamic growth in Asia have been put forward, including the ‘new structuralist’ approach proposed by Lin (2012). This paper examines the various explanations of what these countries did to unleash their growth potential. Industrial policy and market intervention are two such explanations. While the dynamic Asian economies did not flout the Washington Consensus, they adapted it in different ways. The policies that they followed under the Beijing Consensus allowed them to proactively follow pro‐business policies. They also exploited the concepts of economic statism or state capitalism, which became an integral part of what became known as the ‘Asia model’.     

The Panda that grew

China, the Panda, ranks among the world's fastest growing economies. Describing that growth, identifying and quantifying its causes, and examining international competitiveness, a growth corollary, on the assumption that China is structurally similar to a sample of 121 countries, are the purposes of this paper. The inquiry presents economic statistics, including those on convergence, by half decade from the prereform years through the Asian currency crisis. It then sketches a model that links growth to determinants that include total factor productivity (TFP). After estimating parameters it quantifies the growth contributions from the separate causes. On international competitiveness, it studies China's historical record and projects competitiveness into the near term. The paper closes with policy implications.     

Regional determinants of life insurance consumption: evidence from selected Asian economies

The life insurance industry in developing Asian economies is under‐developed compared with global standards. The low market penetration is attributed to full or partial government ownership and entry restrictions on foreign insurers. Regulatory changes and adoption of liberal policies have aided the growth of the life insurance industry in the past decade. At the same time, economic and social factors were expected to promote insurance awareness and consumption. In this context, the paper analyses the factors explaining life insurance demand in 12 Asian economies, including economies from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and Association of Southeast Asian Nations regions, as well as China. The results suggest that income, financial depth, inflation, the real interest rate, and the youth dependency ratio are significant determinants of life insurance consumption. Foreign ownership and improved regulations may foster growth. But urbanisation and the literacy rate are among the few determinants found not to have the impact observed in previous studies. The research highlights the limitations of studies using macrodata and contributes to understanding of the growing insurance industry in the region.     

东亚垂直专业化分工的发展及其影响因素的实证研究

垂直专业化分工是促进东亚区域内贸易发展的重要因素。本文以Hummels等(2001)的方法为基础,计算了1995年和2001年东亚十国(地区)的总体垂直专业化分工程度和各经济体所有产业的垂直专业化指数,并对相关的影响因素进行了检验。结果表明,各经济体间要素禀赋的差异、行业规模程度和关税壁垒是影响垂直专业化分工在东亚发展的重要因素。东亚的垂直专业化分工对区域内部关税率的反应弹性高于对区域外部关税率的反应弹性,这是东亚地区在促进垂直专业化分工方面的区位优势作用的结果。     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

Economic research and economic growth: Evidence from East Asian economies

Based upon page counts of articles published in 60 quality economics journals, the role of economic research is examined for five East Asian economies. In Hong Kong, causality runs bi-directionally between research productivity and economic growth; in Japan, the causal effects tend to be one direction from economic growth to research publications; in Korea and Taiwan, causality runs the other way around from publications to growth; and in Singapore, the causal effects are small and insignificant. Socioeconomic differences in each economy help to explain the various causal directions found.