Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extent Chinese and Korean products in the machinery industry compete with each other in the Japanese market. Empirical tests of panel data of 16 machinery products from 2000Q1 to 2012Q2 show that a decrease in the unit prices of Chinese exports leads to a decrease in the demand for Korean exports. In contrast, a decrease in the unit prices of Korean exports does not lead to a decrease in the demand for Chinese exports. In addition, lagged Chinese prices have bigger impacts on current Korean prices than lagged Korean prices on current Chinese prices. Simulation experiments investigating the impacts of a change in exchange rates on the Chinese and Korean export volumes also confirm that the Korean variables do not affect the Chinese export volume as much as the Chinese variables affect the Korean export volume. Overall, the findings in the present paper indicate that China has already emerged as a formidable competitor to Korea in the Japanese machinery market.     

China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia—Panel data versus time-series causality analyses

Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.     

Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1–2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates confirm the persistence of the income asymmetry first noted by Houthakker and Magee, although in a slightly diminished form. One policy implication of these findings is that dollar depreciation—unaccompanied by a realignment of growth trends—is insufficient to substantially reduce the U.S. trade deficit. JEL no. F31, F41     

房价与城市化的关系——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

城市化水平与住房价格的动态经济模型表明,城市化速度的上升会导致房价的迅速上涨：基于省际面板数据的实证研究也发现各地区房价对城市化率的弹性均为正值,表明城市化水平对房价具有正的积极影响。因此,应实行地区差异化的房地产业发展规划与城市规划,尊重经济规律,确立切实可行的房地产宏观调控目标,实行稳健的可持续的城市化战略,通过这些措施促进中国房地产业与城市化协调发展。     

An empirical re-evaluation of wealth effect in Japanese household behavior

This study investigates empirically the role of wealth in the behavior of Japanese households from two standpoints. One is concerned with what types of wealth are relevant in consumption decision by households. The other is which component of consumption spending is affected by wealth. We find that the liquid financial wealth appears as a significant explanatory variable in expenditure function of many commodity groups as well as total consumption. It turns out that variations of liquid wealth are responsible for about one third of the change in aggregate consumption in the boom period starting from the middle of 1980s.     

Does the Domestic Value Added Induced by China＇s Exports Really Belong to China？

Since 2001, the exports of foreign‐invested enterprises (FIEs) have accounted for more than 50 percent of China's total exports. As foreign capital occupies a high proportion of the total capital of FIEs, most FIEs' capital gains are foreign factor income. Although these gains are calculated as a part of China's GDP, they do not belong to China's national income. To determine the real contribution of exports to China's welfare, the present paper analyses the impact of exports on China's national income using a non‐competitive input–output model capturing processing trade. The results show that every US$1000 of China's exports generates US$506.8 of national income. The real contribution of exports to China's welfare is much smaller than what we expected. This suggests that China should endeavor to improve the gains from international markets or find another engine to maintain its economic growth.     

房价波动、家庭财富配置与居民生活水平——来自长江、珠江三角洲地区的经验证据

文章把房屋价值纳入消费者效用函数,在最优消费与投资组合理论的基础上,分析房价波动对微观家庭财富配置及居民生活水平的影响机理。用2000～2006年长江和珠江三角洲25个城市的面板数据,对理论假说进行了实证检验。研究表明,预期房价上涨会使消费者在本期家庭财富配置时增大房产部分的比重,但房屋的财富效应并不显著,短期内甚至会挤出消费。长期来看,房价上涨降低了居民生活水平,而短期内这种影响并不显著。     

技术创新对中国汽车出口的影响实证研究

出口能力是衡量一国产业国际竞争力的重要指标,研究制约我国汽车出口的因素,寻求提升我国汽车产业国际竞争力的途径,对促进产业的长远发展具有重要意义。对我国汽车业上市公司的面板数据进行多元回归,研究技术创新对我国汽车出口的影响,并对主要乘用车和商用车企业分析结果进行比较,可得出乘用车企业技术创新人员投入强度和资金投入总量对汽车出口有显著正影响、商用车企业技术创新各项指标对出口均无显著影响的结论。     

温州经济技术开发区出口贸易的劳动力效应——基于制造业细分行业面板数据的实证研究

在劳动力成为经济发展的关键因素背景下,文章利用温州经济技术开发区制造业24个细分行业的面板数据研究出口贸易对行业劳动生产率、劳动收入份额和单位资产就业吸收量等劳动力现象的影响,研究发现出口贸易会降低劳动生产率,同时出口贸易会提高行业劳动收入份额并且会增加单位资产就业吸收量.此外,劳动密集型产业样本数据的实证研究得出了相同的结论,但在劳动密集型产业中,出口贸易对劳动生产率的负面影响较弱,对劳动收入的正面影响较强,且对就业的正面影响较弱.     

广东邮电业发展的需求效应分析

经济社会的发展对邮电业的高速成长起着重要的支撑作用。本文以广东省宏观经济社会发展对邮电业的影响为研究对象,利用面板数据模型考察各经济社会变量对邮电业务的影响。实证结果表明,第三产业发展状况和区域开放度对邮电业的支撑和拉动作用最大。因此,建议各地在培育和支持邮电业发展的过程中,要努力调整产业结构,积极开展对外贸易,扩大开放。     

收入分配失衡与“低价工业化”增长机制的牵扯

20世纪90年代中期以来我国居民间收入分配差距逐步扩大,近年来甚至呈现出失衡的局面,进而对我国的消费和生产产生一定程度的影响。利用回溯法可推导出低价工业化增长机制是我国收入分配失衡的根本原因。得出我国收入分配制度改革成功的前提是我国增长机制的转变;收入分配失衡的局面将持续一段时间。     

Smoking and wage rates – Evidence from Japanese panel data

This paper analyzes smoking behavior and its effects on wage rate. It is widely known that smoking has negative health effects and to discourage the practice, governments frequently implement policies such as tax increases and restrictions on public smoking. To evaluate these policies, it is necessary to understand the economic benefits and costs of reducing the number of smokers. We conduct a panel data analysis while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and show that smoking is not the main factor causing observed wage differentials between smokers and non-smokers in Japan.As for the relationship between smoking and wages, we find that male smokers receive lower hourly wages than male nonsmokers. Smoking behavior generally depends on environmental, congenital, or social factors. These factors, however, do not only affect smoking behavior but also the wages of these individuals. To isolate the effect of smoking on wages, we control for individual heterogeneity using panel data to verify the existence of such an effect.Using tax change as an instrumental variable in the fixed effects model and several robustness checks, the results show that smoking has no statistically significant effect on wage rate. This suggests that smoking does not directly affect wages; rather, unobserved individual heterogeneity (other factors influencing both smoking and wages) leads to wage differences between smokers and nonsmokers. Nevertheless, smoking can affect wages in the long run through health problems. The nine-year panel data used in this research, however, is insufficient to capture the long-term indirect health effects. Thus, future research should consider analyzing indirect health effects using panel data spread across a wider time frame.     

国际农产品价格波动对陕西农民收入的影响

近年来,由于国际金融及石油价格的影响,国际农产品价格出现较大、频繁的波动。陕西是经济欠发达省份,是农业大省,农业人口占全省总人口近60%。国际农产品价格的涨落对陕西农民的收入影响很大。本文通过对陕西农业发展现状及国际农产品价格对陕西农民收入影响的分析,提出了在国际农产品价格波动的条件下提高陕西农民收入的建议。     

PRICE ELASTICITIES AND PRICING POWER IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF PETROCHEMICAL‐DERIVED PLASTICS IN SOUTH AFRICA1

This paper examines whether there necessarily exists a conflict between allocative and productive efficiency in small open economy markets. That productive efficiency favours market concentration is not in dispute, and the sole question we face is whether allocative efficiency suffers under high market concentration. We proceed theoretically and econometrically. We find that the conflict between productive and allocative efficiency is not necessarily as stringent as the international competition policy literature suggests should be the case. In particular, we note that the strategic interaction between the large domestic producer and its competitors makes feasible a range of alternative price elasticities of demand, and empirically that all price elasticities of demand are less than or equal to unity. Nevertheless, the impact of market structure is such as to render feasible a wide range of possible levels of pricing power.     

中国FDI流入的决定因素：基于国际面板数据的实证研究

本文基于1992—2005年我国14个FDI主要来源国和地区的数据分析了FDI流入我国的原因。无论是在所有国家样本中还是在欧关发达国家样本中,资本来源国的市场规模和双边贸易都是重要的影响因素。而资本来源国相对劳动成本的提高会增加亚洲国家对我国的直接投资,资本来源国贷款成本的相对降低会增加欧美发达国家对我国的直接投资。     

调控政策、住宅价格与居民住房支付能力——基于PanelData模型的区域差异分析

高房价是近年来我国政府关注的焦点,而与之相关的居民住房支付能力强弱则成为关键问题之一。本文以区域差异为视角,加入政策调控因素,引入虚拟变量,构建Panel Data模型以定量考察各因素对居民住房支付能力的影响程度。结果表明,住宅价格对西部地区的影响低于东、中部,而居民收入和消费支出水平对东部地区的影响高于中、西部;数量型货币政策工具对西部地区居民住房支付能力的影响最为显著,价格型货币政策工具对东部地区的影响最大。据此政府应该根据各地区居民住房支付能力的差异、影响因素的不同而制定相应的有效政策,提高居民住房支付能力。     

Interaction in investment among rival Japanese firms

This paper develops a simple framework for investigating the variation in firms' investment behavior across industrial sectors and over time. We divide the economy into three tiers: major industrial sectors, businesses, and firms, and focus on the impact of business-level interaction on firms investment behavior. After controlling for unobservable firm-specific effects, business-specific effects, and a changing economic environment, we find that the investment and profitability of competitors help explain variations in investment across firms in major Japanese industrial sectors.     

PRICE‐SETTING BEHAVIOR IN TURKISH INDUSTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM SURVEY DATA

This study investigates the price‐setting behavior of Turkish industries based on the results of a survey that was conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The results show that, under normal conditions, the majority of the firms follow a time‐dependent pricing rule but when significant events occur a substantial fraction of them alter their behavior to state‐dependent reviewing. The median Turkish firm reviews its prices every month, but changes its prices four times a year. Price reviews and changes are affected by: the market share, price discrimination, customer type, firm size, and the existence of regulated prices.