香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

进入中国大陆的FDI主要来自日本、美国、中国香港等国家和地区。进入中国大陆的香港FDI主要有港商投资、在港中资机构投资和“假外资”投资等三种类型。中国大陆东部沿海地区是香港FDI进入的优先区域,并向内地呈梯度分布。我们以1980—2008年的中国省级面板数据为基础,实证研究了香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素。本文结论显...     

Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications

Although it is commonly assumed that there are no precedents against which to benchmark Renminbi (RMB), this study argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. This study indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period, state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise international trade receipts while minimising the risk of undue swings in capital flows. This study shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions. As a consequence, Hong Kong has retained its role in mitigating the risks of internationalisation and as a globalising force for China’s banking sector more generally.     

A Eurasian Economic Vision for the Twenty-first Century

Widespread corruption in mainland China adversely affects the overall economy in general and international business in particular. Prior to the establishment of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in 1974, corruption was also rampant in Hong Kong. The ICAC effectively cleaned corruption in Hong Kong within a short period of time. Hong Kong's success in this area has prompted the Chinese government to learn from Hong Kong's experience. This article reviews the factors that contributed to Hong Kong's success in fighting corruption and discusses whether China can learn from the Hong Kong experience. From this, we can conclude that, first, Hong Kong's experience demonstrates that a corruption‐prone culture can be changed in a relatively short period of time; second, in order for China to learn from Hong Kong's experience, there must be substantial changes in China's political and economic institutions.     

Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?

This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990–2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular from Japan and Korea.     

经济一体化与香港股市的国际联动实证研究

本文从汇率制度、利率水平、国际贸易、投资群体等方面,分析香港股票市场所处的宏观管理运行环境,考察香港和美国的密切经济关系,研究全球一体化不断加深的情形下香港、日本和美国股市的动态关系。研究结果表明,三大市场的动态关系依然存在;但恒指跟上证指并不存在协整关系。     

香港人民币离岸市场的发展与预期风险

全球金融危机的爆发使中国货币当局意识到推进人民币国际化的必要性与紧迫性。由于资本项目的未完全开放和人民币尚未实现可自由兑换,为了稳步推行人民币国际化进程,香港成为发展人民币离岸市场的首选之地。伴随一系列相关政策措施的出台,香港人民币离岸市场日益发展壮大。本文在考察人民币跨境贸易结算试点实施以来香港人民币离岸市场流动性的形成、债券市场的演进和金融衍生品市场的现状的基础上,总结了现阶段香港人民币离岸市场发展的特点,探讨了香港人民币离岸市场在未来发展中可能面临的主要问题和预期风险,并提出了相应的对策与建议。     

香港食品安全监管体系及对内地的借鉴意义

近年来,我国食品安全事故发生频率高,为食品安全监管的法律制度、监管机制、部门协调等提出了新的要求。香港与内地监管体系对接,可为我国食品安全监管提供有益参考。目前鲜有研究对香港目前食物安全监管体制做全面梳理研究。基于对香港食环署食物安全中心的多次访谈,该文讨论香港食品安全监管机制的制度架构、运作模式、背后精神,并提出对内...     

香港公屋制度对深圳的启示

解决城市中低收入居民的住房问题是建设和谐社会的重要组成部分,香港政府通过其公共房屋制度,有效地解决了居民的住房问题。但我国内地的住房保障制度建设才刚刚起步,亟待完善。深圳作为中国经济较发达的城市之一,人均收入较高,政府运作高效,与香港有着相似的地理环境,比内地其他城市更适于借鉴香港经验。深圳可以在现有的经济适用房与廉租屋制度框架下,借鉴香港经验,建立有深圳特色的住房保障体系。     

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA BY HONG KONG'S CROSS‐BORDER GARMENT FIRMS

Hong Kong manufacturers have historically been one of the main sources of foreign direct investment to China, but their contribution to the transfer of technology to the mainland has been questioned due to the generally labor‐ rather than capital‐intensive, low‐value‐adding activities they perform there. Using data from eighty‐four Hong Kong‐based garment manufacturers that have invested directly in mainland China, this paper examines the role of Hong Kong FDI in the transfer of technology to China. Analyses show that Hong Kong garment firms are in fact human‐capital‐intensive and are endowed with valuable managerial technology and, moreover, act as effective channels for the transfer of such technology to mainland China.     

Stock market performance in Hong Kong: an exploratory review

This paper reviews the origin and development of the stock market in Hong Kong. The first formal stock exchange, the Association of Stockbrokers in Hong Kong, was formed in 1891. However, the activities of the stock exchange are generally regarded as insignificant until the 1970s. Since the 1980s, there have been a number of major reforms and some significant developments. These include the unification of four stock exchanges; the establishment of the Securities and Futures Commission; the closer economic relations with Mainland China; the merger of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Futures Exchange to form the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx); the launch of the second board (Growth Enterprise Market); and the demutualisation of the HKEx. The Exchange generally responded positively to these reforms and developments. As a result, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant growth in terms of its market capitalisation ratio, turnover ratio, and the total value traded ratio. Despite the impressive growth in various stock market indicators, however, the Hong Kong stock market still faces some challenges, including regulatory challenges, as well as some concern over its future viability as a global equity hub.     

In the crossfire: Multinational companies and consumer boycotts

Multinational firms face challenges as geopolitical tensions are rising when stakeholders may have divergent views on contentious issues. Sharply different attitudes toward the proposed extradition law by the Hong Kong SAR Government in 2019 and related issues were observed among some residents in mainland China and Hong Kong. While firms such as Cathay Pacific Airways expressed support of the government, it was perceived by some of its customers in mainland China that the firm was hostile to them due to the views expressed by some of its staff based in Hong Kong. In this paper, we estimate the impact of such perceived divergent staff political attitudes on consumer demand. Using a triple differences design that controls for changes in market demand and supply conditions, we find that passenger volumes from mainland China were adversely affected for Cathay Pacific, leading to a monthly decrease of approximately 20%, after contentious political views of some of its staff were widely reported in mainland China. However, the negative effects subside within a quarter. Further analysis reveals heterogeneity in consumer responses by regions, with passengers from South East Asia or countries having closer migration or trade ties with mainland China behaving similarly with those from mainland China.     

Costs and Benefits of Export-Oriented Foreign Investment: The Case of China

The costs and benefits of export-oriented FDI have been discussed by Helleiner (1973, 1998), Watanabe (1972), Sharpston (1975), and others. Processed exports generated from FDI have constituted over half of the exports of Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and China. Despite the importance of processed exports, empirical studies of their costs and benefits are difficult due to lack of data, especially on transfer earnings. Data on the division of benefits between the source and host countries are scarce and unreliable. This paper examines the costs and benefits of export-oriented foreign investment for China. China has been highly successful in exporting and in attracting FDI, especially export-oriented FDI from Hong Kong. Since 1993, China has become the second largest recipient of FDI in the world after the US, and Hong Kong has become the world's fourth largest source of FDI after the US, UK, and Germany. China's processed exports are largely re-exported via Hong Kong. As a result, good data on the total value-added of processed exports for Mainland China and for Hong Kong are available. It is found that the rate of value-added for Mainland China is relatively low compare with that for Hong Kong, indicating transfer pricing and absence of linkages in the mainland. This appears to be due to the rigidity of China's economic system which hampers backward and forward linkages. The mainland is thus dependent on Hong Kong for many services in the value-added chain. However, the rate of value-added for China has increased substantially since 1996, indicating an increase in both backward and forward linkages.     

Are stronger executive incentives associated with cross-listing? Evidence from China

This study examines whether firms incorporated in mainland China benefit from cross-listing in Hong Kong, China. The Hong Kong Stock Market has more stringent rules regarding corporate governance and a better system of investor protection than the mainland market. Hong Kong companies generally provide strong incentives to executives via equity-based compensation. Have cross-listed companies learned from Hong Kong firms about adopting these strong executive incentives? The evidence from this study suggests that changes in top executive compensation are more sensitive to sales growth in cross-listed firms than they are in mainland firms without cross-listing. However, compared to Hong Kong firms, cross-listed firms are less sensitive to stock returns. Further, this study shows that it is necessary to differentiate between state-owned companies and private companies, as cross-listing may have a greater impact on executive incentives in state-owned companies than it does in private companies.     

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a bilateral preferential agreement signed among China, Hong Kong, and Macao which opens up the China market by providing zero tariff after accession. This paper sheds light to the impacts of the CEPA on merchandise trade with an in-depth analysis on export efficiency. Despite that merchandise trade has already been fully liberalized, the estimation results indicate that the efficiency of exports to China has been on the decline since 2000. This implies that the actual value of exports to China has departed from its full potential, and confirms our suspicions on the incapability of the CEPA to boost the exports of Hong Kong and Macao to China. There is also no evidence to support that the CEPA has successfully attracted foreign investment to Hong Kong and Macao for tariff free exports to China.     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

Inflation Transmission in Greater China

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model, we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based on data from July 1997 to December 2012 reveal that a long‐term equilibrium relation exists between inflation in Chinese Mainland and inflation in both Hong Kong and Macao, the two Special Administrative Regions of China. The degree of inflation pass‐through is higher for Macao than for Hong Kong. Moreover, we find no evidence of asymmetries in either Hong Kong and Macao's adjustment speeds towards long‐run equilibrium or in the short‐run pass‐through of accelerating or decelerating inflation in the Mainland. Collectively, our results show a close relationship among price dynamics of the three economies and call for a reconsideration of the exchange rate anchor in the Greater China Region.     

Chinese Offshore RMB Currency and Bond Markets： The Role of Hong Kong

This paper discusses the role of Hong Kong in China’s grand scheme to build up the RMB as a global reserve currency.We highlight the economic importance of Hong Kong to China in terms of channeling foreign direct investment into China,some of which,in the future,will be denominated in the RMB.We discuss the development of China’s RMB currency swap and deposit markets in Hong Kong.These offshore markets enable the RMB to trade freely, setting the stage for the RMB to become fully convertible and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing the value of the RMB,and help in the development of the RMB-denominated bond(or dim sum bond)market in Hong Kong.Finally,we present evidence of the phenomenal growth of the dim sum bond market in Hong Kong,which can further enhance and strengthen the use of the RMB outside China.     

新加坡金融服务双向贸易的决定因素

从金融市场结构看,新加坡出口市场更分散,且重要市场比重下滑,但对印度金融服务出口快速上升;而香港金融服务出口更集中且国际化多元化突出。新加坡金融服务与日、韩、香港、美等GL指数较高呈水平分工,与中国和印度GL指数较低呈垂直分工。而决定这一分工现状的主要因素依次为金融市场规模、外来投资以及金融市场开放程度。     

An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets

This study looks at the time-varying nature of systematic risk in the Greater China equity markets. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both have a low average systematic risk when measured against the world market. The short outbursts in systematic risk for these two markets seem to be directly related to policy shifts. The Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are more integrated with world markets and they show signs of large variations in systematic risk over time. Furthermore, conditional betas in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are stationary, while the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are integrated of order one. In addition, long memory tests show that all four markets exhibit a long-run dependence in their conditional betas. While the two mainland China market betas are covariance stationary, the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are not.     

香港商业拆迁法律制度及启示

我国内地目前尚未制定有关商业拆迁的法律,以致与之相关的拆迁纠纷尚没有一个妥适的解决依据。相比之下,香港特区已形成较完善的商业拆迁法律制度,尤其是通过有条件地运用强制售卖制度,较好地平衡了私人发展商和少数业主之间的利益,促进了土地的重新发展,对我国内地商业拆迁法律制度的构建具有借鉴意义。