The roles of electricity and ICT in economic growth: Case Finland

A quantitative look is taken at electricity and ICT as the engines of economic growth in Finland which was one of the leading countries in the electrification of mechanical drive in industry and which today is one of the leading information societies. It is shown that ICT’s contribution to GDP growth in 1990-2004 was three times as large as electricity’s contribution in 1920-1938. The improvement of multi-factor productivity in production accounted for 60% of ICT’s contribution but only one third of electricity’s. Electricity’s growth contribution was smaller but ICT’s larger than in the United States.     

The equipment hypothesis and US economic growth

In several articles published in the 1990s, de Long and Summers argued that investment in producer durables had a high propensity to generate externalities in using industries, resulting in a systematic and substantial divergence between its social and private return. They maintained, moreover, that this was not the case for structures investment. Together, these claims constitute the equipment hypothesis. This paper explores the degree to which the history of US economic growth in the 20th century supports it.     

The relationship between human capital and the economic growth in China

Human capital is one of the most important factors to promote economic growth. It is critical both on theory and practice to study how human capital investment and accumulation promote the economic growth in China. The thesis takes Lucas＇s Human Capital Spillover Model as the analysis tool. Through SPSS 14.0 software, it uses the serial data from 1992 to 2006 to analyze the human capital＇s correlation and contribution to the economic growth, so as to find out why the human capital contribution to economic growth is low. And then, in order to increase the human capital accumulation, it puts forward the relative strategies which include paying more attention to the importance of human capital, greatly developing education, improving the quality of human capital and investing more on the human capital of enterprises.     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

Editorial: Trade,growth and economic inequality in the Asia-Pacific region

This editorial provides a brief summary of the results of our research project entitled “Trade, Growth and Economic Inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region”, which explores and documents the linkages between international trade and inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region. The project’s eleven research papers find some evidence that trade or FDI contribute to inequality, some evidence that it reduces inequality and some evidence of no causal relationship. These seemingly conflicting results are not at all surprising given the complex relationships involved and the different countries, time periods, and means of measuring inequality, trade and FDI our authors adopted.     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

The internal dynamic of Indian economic growth

A stylised fact of India's economic history since 1950 is that the rate of growth of the economy has accelerated periodically and across policy regimes. In this paper we present a theoretical framework that can generate such a pattern due to cumulative causation through positive feedback. The growth process is then investigated using cointegration analysis. We are able to establish the existence of positive feedback which is at the centre of cumulative causation. We are also able to date the onset of this mechanism which has driven growth in India for close to half a century by now. This leads us to conclude that the internal dynamics are at least as important as the policy regimes to understand growth over the long term in this country.     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

The evolution of institutions in India and its relationship with economic growth

This paper examines the evolution in a few public institutionsover time in India. It presents three types of evidence: oninstitutional outcomes (such as losses in power generation,backlogs in disposal of court cases); on perceptions-based measuresof governance, some going back to the 1960s; and, finally, oncustoms administration and whether it has been more effectiveat detecting evasion over time. All the evidence suggests thatinstitutional quality has not improved over time. It then addressesthe two-way relationship between growth and institutions interms of two apparent paradoxes. The first is why growth hasturned around so dramatically in India despite the relativelylimited nature of reforms, especially compared with other countries.The second paradox is why, despite nearly 30 years of rapidgrowth, institutions have not improved. The paper offers someexplanations that might help explain these paradoxes.     

A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth

We first provide a nonparametric inference of the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth using historical data for 18 countries over the period 1820–2005. The obtained shape indicates convexity for low enough values of life expectancy and concavity for large enough values. We then study this relationship using a benchmark model combining "perpetual youth" and learning-by-investing. The generated relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is shown to be strictly increasing and concave. We finally examine two models departing from "perpetual youth" by assuming successively age-dependent earnings and age-dependent survival probabilities. With age-dependent earnings, the obtained relationship is hump-shaped, whereas age-dependent survival laws reproduce the convex–concave shape detected in prior empirical study.     

海峡西岸经济区建设与两岸经贸合作

海峡西岸经济区战略有其深刻的产生背景与内涵。其目标是充分发挥福建地理区住优势，加速海峡两岸经济整合，最终促成海峡经济区的建立，使海峡经济区成为中国经济发展的一个重要增长极，成为台湾布局两岸经贸合作的一个重要枢纽或中介地。     

The Chinese electricity industry: supply capacity and its determinants with reference to OECD countries

Empirical evidence suggests that China has benefited from foreign direct investment (FDI). An important question that remains unanswered is whether China has benefited more from FDI than other countries in general, and other transition and developing countries in particular. This paper investigates this issue by performing a meta-analysis on a sample of 67 country-specific studies yielding 137 observations that have gauged the link between FDI and measures of economic growth. The results suggest that the impact of FDI is, on average, more positively significant for China than for the full sample of countries, but that the difference between China and other transition economies is less clear.     

The sources of long-term economic growth in Indonesia, 1880-2008

This paper presents new time series estimates of GDP, capital stock and education-adjusted employment, and uses a growth accounting approach to analyze GDP growth during 1880-2008. The growth of capital stock, employment and educational attainment explained almost all of GDP growth. During key growth periods 1900-29 and 1975-97, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth was on balance negative. TFP growth was substantial during some sub-periods, particularly 1933-41, 1951-61, 1967-74 and 2000-08. Each followed a major economic downturn that slowed capital stock growth and required a more efficient use of productive resources, supported by changes in economic policy that enhanced productivity and efficiency.     

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

This paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We use a dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allows for fixed effects and endogeneity. We observe a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980–2009. We detect an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We find that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determine that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting.     

The effectiveness of economic sanctions with application to the case of Iraq

In a recent article, San Ling Lam (1990) used a probit estimation technique to re-examine the conclusions of Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott (1985) regarding the effectiveness of economic sanctions in achieving foreign policy goals. While Lam's criticisms of the HSE methodology are valid, the results of the model developed here differ in lending support to the HSE conclusions. In addition, the model can be used to predict the probability of sanctions contributing to a peaceful resolution of the recent Middle East crisis. The predicted probabilities of success in the Iraq case were above average and well above 50 percent.     

The pressure of economic growth and the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds: Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011 in China

This paper explores the motivations behind the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds (UIBs) to stimulate local economies in China after the 2008 global financial crisis. Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011, we find that pressure to achieve economic growth has a positive effect on the issuance of UIBs, while fiscal pressure has the opposite effect on UIB issuance. We also find that the tenure of municipal party secretary, the revenue of land-use right transfer and fiscal pressure will change the impact of economic growth pressure on UIB issuance. These results are consistent with a pattern in which China's local government officials are influenced by the central government's assessment of local economic growth performance and have promotion-related incentives to maintain and develop the local economy.     

Public spending and economic growth: evidence from Ghana (1970–2004)

Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of objectives, one of which is economic growth. This paper examines aggregated and disaggregated expenditure on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1970–2004. Expenditure on education and health represents human capital development, while expenditure on roads and waterways captures infrastructure development. The study reveals that the aggregated government expenditure retarded economic growth. The study's findings show that expenditures on health and infrastructure promote economic growth, while those on education had no significant impact in the short run. In addition, the political economy variables?namely the nature of governance (democracy) and political instability (years of changes in government and military dictatorship)?proved significant in explaining Ghana's economic growth over the study period.     

外部环境对闽台创意农业合作绩效影响的实证研究

文章在文献回顾基础上,构建外部环境对闽台创意农业合作绩效影响的理论模型,设计调研问卷,并以福建省内漳浦、漳平、仙游、清流、福清和惠安6个国家级台湾农民创业园中的创意农业企业为调研对象,收集一手调研数据,实证检验理论模型的合理性和有效性。实证研究结果显示:外部环境的3个因素中,基础设施和政策法规对闽台创意农业合作绩效具有显著正向影响,社会信任对闽台创意农业合作绩效不具有显著正向影响。研究结论为促进闽台创意农业合作绩效的提升提供决策依据,有助于进一步深化闽台创意农业合作,实现两地创意农业实力的共同提升。     

An introduction: the challenges of the Chinese electricity industry and its reform

This introduction is to highlight comprehensively the Chinese electricity industry for issues related to the institutional reform, capacity growth, pricing regime, technology development, supply structure and new investment in upgrading electric power grids. Through reviews of statistics and documentaries, we provide a generally updated understanding of the current development and reform of China’s electric power industry, which is one strategic focus of the Chinese Government for its further reform in the energy sector.