共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
If the overall demand for air transport grows, but additional airport capacity is not available at congested airports, we could assume that airlines will offer flights with more seats in order to cope with the demand. An analysis of frequency and average seat capacity developments at congested, and not yet congested airports, has shown that the hypothesis of bigger aircraft being used in congested situations is valid in most instances, although not at all airports. The objective of this paper is to report on an analysis of the development of average seat capacity at congested airports, in contrast to the situation at not yet congested airports, and to find out the reasons for airlines increasing the number of seats at congested airports, by means of a statistical model using variables including the degree of airport congestion and average flight distance. 相似文献
2.
Tamara Pejovic Robert B. Noland Victoria Williams Ralf Toumi 《Journal of Air Transport Management》2009,15(5):241-248
This paper identifies the vulnerabilities of operations at Heathrow airport to a short airport closure. The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to alternate airports, and flight cancellations. In addition, the impact on fuel consumption, and hence CO2 emissions, is quantified using the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator Plus simulation model and the Advanced Emission Model tool. The results have implications for assessing how increased severe weather events associated with climate change may disrupt airport operations. 相似文献
3.
Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules. 相似文献
4.
5.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the key factors of airport logistics surge capacity and the relationships between these elements. The findings show that successful airport surge capacity management is closely related to prioritizing the flights and operational activities; considering the influx of local people to airports and local infrastructure capacity in the planning phase; developing suitable methods to encourage people to take part in surge operations; providing uninterrupted communication in and out of airport. In view of the above-stated findings this study suggests that airports can meet the surge demand through systematic capacity planning of the existing and additional human, supply, system and space elements by considering experienced or anticipated capacity shortages in disaster conditions. 相似文献
6.
This paper develops a mathematical model for the optimal stopping design of limited-stop bus service, which allows each bus vehicle to skip some stops. To better reflect the reality, this paper considers the vehicle capacity and stochastic travel time. Also, vehicles are all allowed to skip stops whereas any stop is not allowed to be skipped by two consecutive vehicles. A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) and Monte Carlo method is developed to solve the optimal stopping strategy. Finally, the model and solution method are validated by a numerical example, and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the passenger demand. 相似文献
7.
Over the past two decades, the aviation sector has seen dramatic growth in demand with limited support in terms of supply, due to under-development of the larger airport infrastructure. This has led to congestion and delays at major airports across the world. The topic of ‘airport capacity management’ (ACM) has thereby attracted considerable scholarly attention. From our review of extant literature, we find an extensive repository of research work related to ACM, vis a vis its inherent role and the expected output. Nevertheless, extant literature has failed to conduct a systematic literature review on ACM in order to understand its evolution over time. Therefore, we analyze ACM literature in detail to grasp and evaluate the work being done thus far, using bibliometric analysis. Our analysis reveals that airport capacity, congestion, competition and ground holding problems are important keywords related to ACM. Further, using co-citation analysis we identify 5 broad clusters and thought pattern of researchers. We also propose a flowchart of literature with major research area related to ACM. Finally, we note that the Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM) with 1086 citations and 109 documents tops the list of journals publishing papers on ACM. 相似文献
8.
The demand for air transportation service in Korea has been increasing rapidly, while the airport operation system has become even further advanced and complex. Accordingly, concerns regarding negative ripple effects, such as damage caused by flight delays or cancellations due to irregular operations (IROPs) of airports, have been amplifying. The IROPs is being newly defined, and guidelines for establishing a response system are being proposed in the U.S. and the U.K. However, studies in relation to preemptive and predictive responses aimed at minimizing the negative impacts, such as to analyze ripple effects generated after an incident, have not been sufficiently conducted. Accordingly, this study was conducted to analyze the ripple effects of IROPs according to severity and duration time, and to thus suggest a methodology to enable predictive response. The situation of IROPs was simulated and analyzed using the tower log data of 2015 from Jeju International Airport (CJU), Gimpo International Airport (GMP), and Gimhae International Airport (PUS) in Korea. The five-level classification for IROPs was then suggested using the K-means algorithm. The methodology suggested was verified for applicability to actual airport operation through scenario analysis. It is expected to serve as a framework for establishing the quantitative standards for goal setting with which airport operators solve the situation of IROPs. 相似文献
9.
Airport capacity continues to be one of the air transport issues that creates the most concern. The major environmental constraint for airports is the noise generated by aircraft. Annoyed communities living around airports have become a limiting factor for airport capacity and operability. This paper brings together the existing literature in the fields of airport environmental capacity, non-acoustic factors of noise annoyance, NIMBYism and environmental conflicts. We also analyze the socio-environmental conflict between Barcelona airport and the community of Gavà Mar. This case shows that the lack of trust between parties, the impossibility of predicting noise exposure, the absence of opportunities for civil society to speak and the difficulty of accessing relevant information foster annoyance and mobilization in the communities that live around the airport. In addition, it is shown that, in such a situation, communities’ reactions can evolve to a post-NIMBY stage in which proactive attitudes replace reactive ones. 相似文献
10.
Tobias Behnen 《Journal of Transport Geography》2004,12(4):277
Despite fluctuations for economic or political reasons, the number of passengers and volume of cargo carried by air is growing quickly, leading to a shortage of airport capacity in some European regions with few slots available at some hubs. This problem has accelerated the trend towards an increase in airport capacity for larger aircraft everywhere, a process which started in the UK and is now continuing throughout Europe, especially in Germany. Apart from development at the hubs, however, many small airports have also been enlarged, former military airbases have been converted to civilian use, and new runways are to be built in areas away from centres of population. These changes have occurred within a short period of time. In Germany, the number of available airports with runways over 1800 m will have doubled in a period of 10–15 years. 相似文献
11.
The changing dynamics of passenger processes in future airport terminals resulting from pressures from both the demand and supply side are analyzed in this paper. Short and long term (beyond 2020) developments are studied following technology advances and business plans of airlines and airports. Key technologies affecting the central passenger processing functions include identity management and biometrics, Near Field Communications, Big Data analytics and smartphone applications. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the impact of forthcoming changes on the airport's departure hall. Lisbon Portela airport is used as case study. It is shown that passenger process times at the check-in and security checkpoints are significantly reduced, due to the introduction of passenger facilitation processes, under a range of behavioral, technological and policy uncertainties. The most salient implication of these reductions is the quantified capacity gains in the building which question the need for terminal expansion. 相似文献
12.
Anastasios Michailidis 《International Journal of Tourism Research》2006,8(5):381-390
This paper provides an empirical example of the valuation of real options in a large‐scale tourism project. The main aim of this article is to elaborate the investment decision process in the evaluation of a ski centre enlargement project by employing elements of the real options methodology. Monte Carlo simulation was used to value the options as it offers the flexibility to directly simulate the uncertainty factors. Traditional discount cash flow analysis points the investment as profitable, although the real options approach proves it as not economically feasible. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future. 相似文献
14.
Our research purpose is to estimate the impact of large volcanic eruptions on air transport and discuss how to reduce their negative impact through emergency operations. In particular, we focus on East Asia, where ash from the eruptions impedes air transport. First, we use Collaborative Actions for Renovation of Air Traffic System (CARATS) Open Data that are provided by the Civil Aviation Bureau (CAB) of Japan and estimate how many flights will be affected by volcanic ash. Furthermore, we discuss the dispersal of the volcanic ash that was discharged by the large-scale eruptions of Mount Sakurajima. This crossed over the main part of Japan from west to east. Through a simulation, we found that a volcanic eruption that lasts 14 h would cause a substantial number of the airports, including the major gateway airports, in Japan to be shut down simultaneously. It would also cause half of the airports’ scheduled flights to be cancelled or diverted. Subsequently, based on the impact estimation, we discuss the possibility of provisionally parking aircraft outside the damaged areas. Our results suggest that the airports located in the northern Tohoku area and the New Chitose airport are the best to accept evacuation flights to avoid risks in aviation following a volcanic eruption. 相似文献
15.
This paper studies the robust optimization approach for the routing problem encountered in daily maintenance operations of a road network. The uncertainty of service time is considered. The robust optimization approach yields routes that minimize total cost while being less sensitive to substantial deviations of service times. A robust optimization model is developed and solved by the branch-and-cut method. In computational experiments, the behavior of the robust solutions and their performance are analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation. The robust optimization model is also compared with a classic chance-constrained programming model. The experimental analysis provides managerial insights for decision makers to determine an appropriate routing strategy. 相似文献
16.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market share variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success. 相似文献
17.
The break-even distance of an intermodal freight system is a crucial piece of information for shippers as they decide whether to choose a specific freight transport system. It is also important for policy makers who want to demonstrate to shippers that the intermodal system is substantially more beneficial over a certain distance and encourage shippers to use it. However, the break-even distance is highly dependent on market situations. In other words, it is not possible to estimate the definitive break-even distance that is generally applicable. To date, the literature has addressed factors, including costs and distances, that impact the break-even distance without considering the relative importance of each of these factors. This study attempts to address this gap in knowledge by evaluating the relative importance of geometric and cost factors. The former includes drayage distances (i.e., pre- and post-haulage by trucks), truck-only distance, rail distance, the shape of the market area, and the terminal location, while the latter includes the drayage truck rate, the long-distance truck rate, the rail rate, and the terminal handling rate. Finally, by developing a Monte Carlo-based simulation model, the relative importance can be evaluated. The key finding is that the geometric factors and terminal handling costs are not more significant than the transport costs (i.e., rail costs and long-distance trucking costs) in general. Specifically, to shorten the break-even distance, either reducing the rail rate or increasing the truck rate is the most effective strategy. A 1% change in these factors is almost seven times, three times, and twice as effective as a 1% change in the handling costs at terminals, rail distance, and drayage cost, respectively. Furthermore, neither the oval-shaped market area nor a terminal relocation attracts customers to intermodal systems in general. When two options are combined, the synergic effect is significant. 相似文献
18.
Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments. 相似文献
19.
Modern airports operate under high demands and pressures, and strive to satisfy many diverse, interrelated, sometimes conflicting performance goals. Airport performance areas, such as security, safety, and efficiency are usually studied separately from each other. However, operational decisions made by airport managers often impact several areas simultaneously. Current knowledge on how different performance areas are related to each other is limited. This paper contributes to filling this gap by identifying and quantifying relations and trade-offs between the detection performance of illegal items and the average queuing time at airport security checkpoints. These relations and trade-offs were analyzed by simulations with a cognitive agent model of airport security checkpoint operations. By simulation analysis a security checkpoint performance curve with three different regions was identified. Furthermore, the importance of focus on accuracy for a security operator is shown. The results of the simulation studies were related to empirical research at an existing regional airport. 相似文献
20.
Airport passenger leakage is the phenomenon of air passengers choosing to travel longer distances to access more extensive air services offered by airlines at an out-of-region hub (or, substitute) airport, instead of using their local airports. Airport leakage can cause further reduction in services offered by airlines at a local airport, thereby causing even further leakage, and so on, which can significantly impact an airport's role in the growth of the local economy. This paper explores the geographic and operational attributes of local-and-substitute airport pairs in the United States, explicitly accounting for the interactive feedback relationship between passenger volumes and air service characteristics that contribute to the onset, persistence, and exacerbation of airport passenger leakage. A two-stage least squares regression model of air passenger demand at small- and medium-sized airports is first presented, where local passengers may travel by vehicle to larger, out-of-region hub airports. The results confirm that airfare and passenger volume relationships exist between the local and substitute airport pairs included in the dataset, and that lower airfares at the substitute airport have a greater impact on airport choices made by larger travel groups. They also suggest the existence of positive feedback in that if an airport attracts increasingly smaller passenger numbers with fewer air services and fewer air services with fewer passengers, without external intervention airport leakage impacts may be irreversible and exacerbate over time. A conceptual market share equilibrium analysis is used to illustrate the mechanisms of a direct two-way feedback relationship between passenger volumes at a local airport and air service characteristics at both the local and substitute airports. With data, this quantitative framework can help guide airport planners in further assessing and verifying suspected passenger leakage issues at their airport. The results suggest that without intervention, airport leakage impacts may be difficult to reverse; further exacerbating the trend are technological advancements that make driving cheaper and easier (connected and autonomous vehicles). However, the results can also guide planners in choosing the types and degrees of infrastructure investments and airline incentives that may be used to expand or retain air services to attract passengers. 相似文献