The Cost Effectiveness of the UK's Sovereign Debt Portfolio*

This paper provides a recursive empirical analysis of the scope for cost minimization in public debt management when the debt manager faces a given short‐term interest rate dictated by monetary policy as well as risk and market impact constraints. It simulates the ‘real‐time’ interest costs of alternative portfolios for UK government debt between April 1985 and March 2000. These portfolios are constructed using forecasts of return spreads based on a recursive modelling procedure. While we find statistically significant evidence of predictability, the interest cost savings are quite small when portfolio shares are constrained to lie within historical bounds.     

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk

Governments around the world are tackling the COVID-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, and/or market-based policies. We assess the impact of the pandemic in Europe on sovereign CDS spreads using an event study methodology. We find that a higher number of cases and deaths and public health containment responses significantly increase the uncertainty among investors in European government bonds. Other governmental policies magnify the effect in the short run as supply chains are disrupted. Moreover, an increased debt-to-GDP ratio significantly boosts the cumulative abnormal change of CDS spreads, which indicates that investors are concerned about countries that are too indebted and thus have a limited capacity to intervene and provide fiscal stimuli and emergency fiscal packages to businesses and households.     

The UK and the Eurozone: Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy

Events in the wake of the ‘credit crunch’ can be understood only against institutional structures within which interdependent monetary and fiscal policy are administered. In the Eurozone, the attempt to keep a central monetary authority (together with its associated national central banks) independent from 17 diverse fiscal authorities was flawed. When sovereign debt approaches unmanageable levels, the Maastricht Treaty presents austerity as the single option. In the UK, the electorate has an opportunity to choose between monetary financing (inflation) and fiscal consolidation (austerity). Policy choices within the Eurozone and the UK are set against Keynes's focus on unemployment and more recent concerns to retain (or restore) price and/or financial stability.     

欧洲主权债务的违约风险及其对银行业的影响

欧债危机持续恶化,危机逐渐向意大利和欧洲银行体系蔓延。由于银行业持有巨额危机国家债券,部分国家国债收益率急剧飙升将导致欧洲银行业的融资成本、流动性风险和不良贷款率攀升,使银行的存款流失且贷款增长放缓。一旦希腊或意大利债务违约,可能触发CDS赔偿和放大衍生品市场的交易对手风险,造成金融机构的巨额赔付,导致难以估量的溢出效应。危机的持续蔓延,可能导致热钱流入,企业信用风险加剧,延缓中国解决房贷市场潜在风险的努力,从而对中国的银行业产生影响。     

欧洲主权债务危机的根源、影响及警示意义

自2009年以来,欧洲国家的主权债务问题一直被全球资本市场所关注,以PIIGS五国（希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利）为代表的南欧多个国家的债务问题浮出水面,不仅引发了全球金融市场的剧烈波动,同时危及到整个欧元区乃至全球经济的稳定。本篇文章深入分析了欧洲主权债务危机的形成根源及影响,并揭示债务危机对各国的警示意义     

个体理性、风险偏好、社会地位与我国消费增长

基于跨期替代资产选择理论，本文建立了一个较为符合我国实际的模型，并结合相关经济数据将其用于分析我国消费增长问题。发现：（1）提高跨期替代弹性是解决我国消费不足问题的关键；（2）通过减少个体风险偏好或提高其对社会地位的重视程度来增加消费的方法在理论上并不可行；（3）通过减少贫富差距来减少社会地位因素受重视程度，可能对刺激消费有一定作用。     

基于“贡献价值系数”的人力资源个人价值评估模型设计

学术界迄今为止缺乏权威、公认的人力资源个人价值评估方法。本文以成都思盈科技有限公司作为实证样本,基于岗位相对权重与岗位绩效评估值,提出贡献价值系数这一指标,设计了一种新型的人力资源个人价值评估模型——贡献价值系数法。     

人力资源市场发展现状与对策研究

人力资源市场的发展会影响到人力资源质量水平的提高,因此需要对其市场发展情况进行规范化管理,这样才能够为各个企业提供优质的人力资源,推进社会持续发展.基于此,本文分析了当前人力资源市场的具体发展现状,探讨了目前人力资源市场发展过程中所存在的具体问题,并从这些问题出发,提出了有效的解决对策,以期能够提高人力资源市场发展的规范化水平.     

The Individual Poverty Incidence of Growth

The canonical approach to analyse the poverty impact of growth is based on the comparison of poverty before and after growth. Measurement tools endorsing this approach fail to capture the different experiences of poverty dynamic in the population: there can be groups of the population made poorer or non‐poor made poor by growth. We propose an approach that allows measuring this individual poverty incidence of growth and show how it is related with existing models. We apply our framework to evaluate the poverty impact of growth in Indonesia, by comparing the 1993–2000 with the 2000–07 and 2007–14 growth spells.     

The Rise of Individual Performance Pay

Existing empirical evidence suggests that individual performance pay is more prevalent in human‐capital‐intensive industries. We introduce a model that can contribute to explain this. In a repeated game model of relational contracting, we analyze the conditions for implementing peer‐dependent incentive regimes when agents possess indispensable human capital. We show that the larger the share of values that the agents can hold up, the lower is the implementable degree of peer‐dependent incentives. In a setting with complementary tasks, we show that although team‐based incentives are optimal if agents are dispensable, it may be costly, and, in fact, suboptimal, to provide team incentives when the agents become indispensable.     

New investor categories,agility and HRM: The case of Sovereign Wealth Funds

This article reviews the existing literature on SWFs and the firm, focusing particular attention on the implications of the rise of SWFs strategic agility and HRM. This paper outlines three main channels through which sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment has implications for employees. First, SWFs influence macroeconomic environments, and hence affect labor conditions. Second, institutional conditions in different countries shape the behavior of SWFs around the world, which in turn has implications for HR strategy and practice. Third, SWFs can have a direct effect on the corporate governance and hence HR strategies and employees of organizations in which they invest. We review and discuss these three channels and outline avenues for future research.     

Sovereign default risk,debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil

Since Credit Default Swaps spreads reflect the sovereign risk and, thus, the uncertainties related to government solvency, the goal of this study is to examine the relation between sovereign risk and debt uncertainty (measured by the disagreement in expectations about public debt) in an important developing country – Brazil. Furthermore, the paper analyzes whether fiscal credibility plays a key role in mitigating the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. The results suggest the disagreement in expectations about public debt affects the sovereign risk, and fiscal credibility plays a twofold role, it reduces sovereign risk, and it mitigates the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. Besides, quantile regression estimates reveal that fiscal credibility improvements are even more important when sovereign risk levels are higher.     

个性心理对学习的影响

当前中小学教育重视学生的智力发展,而忽视学生个性因素对学习的影响,同时也忽略了个性心理的培养.很多学生缺乏学习动力,没有克服困难的信心,因此必须了解个性心理对学习的影响.