Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze priceformation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment withsimilarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis isthat the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probabilitythat a trader trades on the basis of private information. Heuses this knowledge to price discriminate. This can be achievedby quoting a large spread and granting price improvement totraders deemed uninformed. Consistent with our hypothesis wefind that price improvement reflects lower adverse selectioncosts but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit.Further, the quote adjustment following transactions at thequoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustmentafter transactions at prices inside the spread. Our resultsindicate that anonymity comes at the cost of higher adverseselection risk. JEL Classification: G10.     

Changing the Size of a Futures Contract: Liquidity and Microstructure Effects

We analyze the relation between contract size and liquidity using data from the respecification of Sydney Future Exchange's (SFE) Share Price Index (SPI) and 90-day Bank Accepted Bill (BAB) futures contracts. Respecification of SPI and BAB contracts presents a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of a change in futures contract size. SFE decreased the size of SPI futures by a factor of four while increasing its minimum tick. The BAB contract was doubled in size with the minimum tick size left unchanged. We find, after controlling for market factors, that the respecification of the SPI futures resulted in higher trading volume, while that of BAB futures decreased trading volume. The results regarding spreads are ambiguous. Based on two cases investigated, we conclude that decreasing the futures contract size was effective in terms of enhancing liquidity while increasing the size resulted in a reduction in liquidity.     

Anonymity,Stealth Trading,and the Information Content of Broker Identity

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange—where broker identity is transparent—we provide evidence that consecutive buyer‐/seller‐initiated transactions by the same broker have a relatively high permanent price impact. This implies that broker identity conveys information to market participants, and that markets in which broker identity is disclosed are likely to be more efficient. We also find that medium‐sized trades by the same broker convey greater information than large and small trades, which is consistent with stealth trading by informed investors.     

Information-Based Trading and Price Improvement

Abstract:  In this study we test the information hypothesis of price improvement. Our results show that price improvement is negatively related to both the probability of information-based trading and the price impact of trades. We interpret these results as evidence that liquidity providers selectively offer price improvements according to the information content of trades. We also show that liquidity providers offer greater (and more frequent) price improvements when they are at the NBBO, and for stocks with wider spreads, fewer trades, or smaller trade sizes relative to the quoted depth. Buyer-initiated trades receive smaller (larger) price improvements than seller-initiated trades on the NYSE (NASDAQ).     

Information costs and liquidity effects from changes in the FTSE 100 list

Abstract

In this paper we examine the stock price effect of changes in the composition of the FTSE 100 over the time period of 1984–2001. Like the S&P 500 listing studies, we find that the price and trading volume of newly listed firms increases. The evidence is consistent with the information cost/liquidity explanation. This is because investors hold stocks with more available information, implying that they have lower trading costs. This explains the increase in the stock price and trading volume of newly listed stocks to the FTSE 100 List. We find the reverse effect for the deletions from the FTSE 100.     

Corporate Takeovers: Mode of Payment, Returns and Trading Activity

This paper examines the impact of takeover bids and, in particular, the method of payment to the shareholders of the target firms on the returns, trading activity and bid-ask spreads of target and bidding firms traded on the London Stock Exchange. It suggests that the shareholders of target firms benefit substantially from takeover activity while the shareholders of bidding firms do not suffer. The combined value of the firms engaged in takeover activity increases by a small percentage during the event period. However, the benefit from a takeover announcement to the shareholders of the target firm varies from year to year and has declined in the recent past. The magnitude of excess returns available to the shareholders is also dependent on the mode of payment. Prices of target (bidding) firms increase (decrease) most if the shareholders of the target firms are given an option to receive payment in shares or in cash. The findings also reveal that during the event period trading activity in target and bidding companies increases depending on the form in which payments to shareholders are made. In response to this increased liquidity, the bid-ask spreads of target and bidding firms decline during the event period.     

流动性、物价稳定与资产价格上涨——从理论模型看日本的经验教训

本文以20世纪80年代中后期的日本为对象，从理论和实证两方面研究在低利率、物价稳定的背景下，资产泡沫形成的原因，以及日本银行货币政策失误的教训，并对我国当前低利率、物价稳定、资产价格上涨并存的现象提出政策建议。本文认为，应避免汇率升值对利率产生过大的影响，维持国内利率政策的独立性；货币政策以物价稳定为主要目标，但应密切关注持续的资产价格上涨；维持稳健的货币政策，防止货币政策矫枉过正。     

Liquidity costs: Screen-based trading versus open outcry

The results reported in this paper challenge the popular belief that screen-based trading offered lower liquidity costs than the open-outcry approach during its first year of side-by-side operation in the U.S. financial derivatives market. Using time and sales data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) market profile data series, effective bid-ask spreads are estimated on the basis of daily and intraday measures of the Thompson-Waller and Smith-Whaley estimators. We find liquidity costs on the screen-based system vary with time and the level of floor trading activity. In particular, a one-tick market is observed just before the opening of the Chicago trading floor (6:30 to 7:30 am). However, subsequent intraday spreads exhibit the familiar “reverse J-shaped pattern”—highest following the opening of floor trading, declining until afternoon, and then increasing until close. Meanwhile, daily spread estimates average almost a quarter-tick higher on the screen-based market relative to the one-tick spread commonly associated with open outcry. This relationship remained robust across sample time-series and conservative price-change specifications. Since the study was conducted, electronic trading has become the predominant exchange medium for financial derivatives at the CBOT, following the example set in Europe's traditional futures exchanges, e.g. France's Matif, Germany's Deutsche Bourse and the U.K.'s Liffe.     

流动性的度量及其与资产价格的关系

本文将流动性划分为货币流动性、银行系统流动性和市场流动性三个层次,总结了相应的可操作的度量方法,并通过中国数据进行了度量,从一个侧面论证了货币流动性是市场流动性的基础,以及市场流动性高时资产价格一般也较高的观点。基于货币流动性的基础性地位,本文进一步考察了货币流动性与资产价格的关系,发现超额货币流动性不仅影响股票的名义回报,还影响股票的真实回报;货币流动性在长期内受到股票真实回报的反作用,但这种作用可能是相对微小的。     

货币政策、流动性不足与个股暴跌风险

本文以2004-2012年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,研究货币政策是否影响个股暴跌风险,以及基金和个股流动性不足对货币政策效果的影响。研究结果表明:(1)货币政策紧缩会显著增加个股的暴跌风险;(2)基金流动性不足和个股流动性不足会显著增加紧缩货币政策对股价暴跌风险的影响;(3)其他机构投资者能够缓解紧缩货币政策以及基金流动性不足对股价暴跌风险的影响。本文丰富了股价暴跌风险研究,同时对于货币政策制定及流动性管理有一定的现实意义。     

Insider Trading and the Bid-Ask Spread

This study examines the intertemporal and cross-sectional association between the bid-ask spread and insider trading. Empirical results from the cross-sectional regression analysis reveal that market makers establish larger spreads for stocks with a greater extent of insider trading. The time-series regression analysis, however, finds no evidence of spread changes on insider trading days. These results suggest that although market makers may not be able to detect insider trading when it occurs, they protect themselves by maintaining larger spreads for stocks with a greater tendency of insider trading. The results also reveal that market makers establish larger spreads when there are unusually large transactions. In addition, this study finds that spreads are positively associated with risk and negatively with trading volume, the number of exchange listings, share price, and firm size.     

The Split of the S&P 500 Futures Contract: Effects on Liquidity and Market Dynamics

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reduced the size of its S&P 500 futures contract when it reduced the multiplier from 500 to 250 and increased the minimum tick from 0.05 to 0.10 on November 3, 1997. This is a rare major change in a very successful contract's specifications. We analyze effects of this change on liquidity and market dynamics in both a univariate and a multivariate context. The main contribution of this study is the use of multiple intervention analysis with various dynamic response functions to examine the effects of the split while taking into account several other major market events surrounding it. A multivariate analysis is also used to test the impact of the split using a structural model of liquidity and market dynamics. Empirical findings offer limited support for the hypotheses that smaller contract size resulted in smoother trading, and that more public customers trade the S&P 500 futures contract following its split. We observe a reduction in the average transaction size as well as a temporary narrowing of the bid-ask spreads, but no significant change in volatility that can be attributed to the split. We do not find any significant and lasting impact on other liquidity and market variables.     

Price Discovery and Liquidity in Basket Securities

Basket securities enable investors to purchase a broad portfolio of securities in a single transaction. We examine the link between HOLDRS, a basket security comprising stocks from an industry or sector, and the underlying stocks. We find that the price of the portfolio of underlying securities leads and is more informative than the basket price. Our results are contrary to the findings of empirical studies that use futures, which are basket securities with features less like those of the underlying equities. Our findings suggest uninformed investors can minimize adverse selection costs by trading basket securities rather than the underlying stocks.     

Knowing me, knowing you: : Trader anonymity and informed trading in parallel markets

In this paper we empirically analyze whether the degree of trader anonymity is related to the probability of information-based trading. We use data from the German stock market where non-anonymous traditional floor based exchanges co-exist with an anonymous computerized trading system. We use an extended version of the Easley et al. (J. Finance 51 (1996) 1405) model that allows for simultaneous estimation for two parallel markets. We find that the probability of informed trading is significantly lower in the floor based trading system. We further document that the size of the spread and the adverse selection component are positively related to the estimated probabilities of information-based trading.     

The Impact of the Reduction in Tick Increments in Major U.S. Markets on Spreads,Depth, and Volatility

This study presents an analysis of the impact of the introduction of quotes in sixteenths of a dollar on the AMEX, Nasdaq, and NYSE in mid-1997 on select market characteristics such as spreads, effective spreads, quoted depth, and volume. The findings of the study document reductions in the bid-ask spread, effective spread, and a statistically significant increase in the number of quotes. Interestingly, we find that liquidity, as measured by the total depth at the bid and ask, declines significantly on the AMEX and NYSE, but increases on the Nasdaq. Trading volume increases on the NYSE, but remains unchanged for the AMEX and Nasdaq. We also find that the proportion of even-increment quotes is a relevant factor affecting percentage spreads for Nasdaq both before and after and for the NYSE only after the change in quoting increments.     

金融期货价格波动限制机制探讨

金融期货价格稳定机制延缓了价格发现过程，并造成了流动性干扰，但从降低期货、现货交易总成本来讲，它还是利大于弊，因此设置价格波动限制是一种可行的政策，而且在期货、现货市场同时设定的效果最好。此外，从不同价格波动限制方式的影响来看，选择弹性涨跌幅限制可较好地发挥价格限制的好处，减小价格限制的不利影响。     

Price Dynamics and Information Flows in Strategically-Linked Debt Instruments: The NOB and MOB Constituents

We examine information flows between the constituents of the NOB (notes-over-bonds) and MOB (municipals-over-bonds) futures spreads. The results suggest a bicausal relationship between notes and bonds and a unicausal relationship from bonds to municipals. Shocks in the bond market have a large impact on the municipal and note markets, whereas shocks in the municipal or note markets have a smaller impact on the bond market. Volatility spillover from bonds to notes and municipals is detected. We also find significant volatility persistence in all three markets. Spread trades are found to have an asymmetric influence on notes and municipal futures variance.     

Price Formation and Equilibrium Liquidity in Fragmented and Centralized Markets

This paper compares centralized and fragmented markets, such as floor and telephone markets. Risk-averse agents compete for one market order. In centralized markets, these agents are market makers or limit order traders. They are assumed to observe the quotes of their competitors. In fragmented markets they are dealers. They can only assess the positions of their competitors. We analyze differences in bidding strategies reflecting differences in market structures. The equilibrium number of dealers is shown to be increasing in the frequency of trades and the volatility of the value of the asset. The expected spread is shown to be equal in both markets, ceteris paribus. But the spread is more volatile in centralized than in fragmented markets.