A search interpretation of the family gap

This paper proposes a general equilibrium search model to investigate what is known as the family gap: wage differentials between mothers and non-mothers. In the human capital literature a substantial amount of the family gap is left unexplained after controlling for schooling and experience. This paper suggests that differences in labor market behavior between mothers and non-mothers are an important factor in explaining the family gap. For college graduates, estimation results show that employed mothers search 70% less than non-mothers and more than 50% of the family gap can be explained by the labor market behavior differences between mothers and non-mothers. Such differences, however, can not explain the family gap for high school graduates.     

Working while enrolled in a university: does it pay?

This study examines how university students' employment decisions affect their labor market success after graduation. The study is based on individual level panel data of Finnish university students from the years 1987–1998. The OLS estimates show that in-school work experience is associated with higher earnings and employment after graduation. However, work months during the enrollment are not exogenously chosen. Average local unemployment rate during enrollment is used as an instrument for work experience acquisition to correct for the endogeneity bias. Comparing graduates with equal times-to-degree, the IV estimates show that work experience increases earnings considerably one year after graduation. The effect is smaller and statistically insignificant in later years. Taking into account that working usually leads to longer times-to-degree, IV estimates show no significant returns to student employment.     

Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns

Over the past decade, state and local policymakers and business leaders across the U.S. have expressed concern regarding the ability to attract and retain skilled workers, given the economic climate of their states compared with other parts of the nation. Examining the factors underlying state-level migration trends is important to determine what role, if any, public policy might play in addressing their potential impact on local labor supply. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service for each of the 48 states in the continental United States from 1977 through 2006, this paper examines the role of three economic factors—namely labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability—in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. Estimates from a logistic model of out-migration show that while all three measures of relative economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, the magnitude of their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income as a determining factor has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Interestingly, the role of labor market conditions—while significant throughout the entire 30-year period—was most prominent in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Estimates from the model are used to forecast migration for 2009 for selected states. The results from this exercise are surprisingly accurate when compared to actual state migration patterns for that year.     

Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth

Differences in the supply of housing generate substantial variation in house prices across the United States. Because house prices influence migration, the elasticity of housing supply also has an important impact on local labor markets. I assemble evidence on housing supply regulations and examine their effect on metropolitan area housing and labor market dynamics. Locations with relatively few barriers to construction experience more residential construction and smaller increases in house prices in response to an increase in housing demand. Furthermore, housing supply constraints alter local employment and wage dynamics in locations where the degree of regulation is most severe.     

The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy

This paper studies the labor market experiences of white-male college graduates as a function of economic conditions at time of college graduation. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth whose respondents graduated from college between 1979 and 1989. I estimate the effects of both national and state economic conditions at time of college graduation on labor market outcomes for the first two decades of a career. Because timing and location of college graduation could potentially be affected by economic conditions, I also instrument for the college unemployment rate using year of birth (state of residence at an early age for the state analysis). I find large, negative wage effects of graduating in a worse economy which persist for the entire period studied. I also find that cohorts who graduate in worse national economies are in lower-level occupations, have slightly higher tenure and higher educational attainment, while labor supply is unaffected. Taken as a whole, the results suggest that the labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy are large, negative and persistent.     

Seniority,experience, and wages in the UK

This paper uses BHPS data to investigate the relative importance of seniority and experience in determining male wages in the UK labor market. Using both the Altonji and Shakotko instrumental variable and the Topel two-step estimation approaches, I find that for all male workers, tenure plays a modest role, increasing wages by about 1% each year over the first 10 years on the job. General labor market experience has a larger role, so that after 30 years wages have increased by about 60%. Individual and job match heterogeneity are important, and should be carefully modeled when estimating wage equations for the British labor market. These results are remarkably similar to the most recent evidence about these relationships in the US labor market. After extending the standard model to include industry and occupation experience, the estimated impact of job seniority becomes negligible for nonunion workers. Instead, the wages of nonunion workers rise because of the accumulation of general and sector-specific experience. The wages of union workers are still found to increase with job seniority over the first ten years with their employer, suggesting that if seniority matters for wages it is only for union workers.     

Health,economic resources and the work decisions of older men

We specify a dynamic programming model that addresses the interplay among health, financial resources, and the labor market behavior of men late in their working lives. We model health as a latent variable, for which self-reported disability status is an indicator, and allow self-reported disability to be endogenous to labor market behavior. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. While we find large impacts of health on behavior, they are substantially smaller than in models that treat self-reports as exogenous. We also simulate the impacts of several potential reforms to the Social Security program.     

The effect of match quality and specific experience on career decisions and wage growth

This paper constructs and estimates a career decision model where individuals search for both careers and firms that are a good match for their idiosyncratic skills using the NLSY79. It departs from previous papers in that career mobility decisions and participation decisions are explicitly modeled. I find substantial returns to career-specific experience. However, college graduates' wage grows little through career-match upgrading, which results in a lower incidence of career changes than high school graduates. The finding suggests that college graduates learn about their suitable careers before they enter a labor market.     

Factors influencing the demand and supply of public school teachers in Indiana: An exploratory analysis

Arguments by plaintiffs in recent court cases dealing with the constitutionality of a system of funding public schools based primarily on the local property tax have proposed that teachers in districts with high assessed valuations are on the average better paid, better trained and have more experience than teachers in low assessed valuation districts. The analysis presented in this paper was designed to determine whether or not empirical support exists for these arguments. A conceptual model representing the demand and supply of public school teachers is developed. The model is applied to data from 269 Indiana school districts. Results of the analysis largely show that socio-economic variables other than taxable wealth are the primary determinants of the training, experience, and salaries paid to teachers. Only a small proportion of the variation in training experience, and salaries could be attributed directly to assessed valuation.     

International graduate students' perceptions and interest in international careers

This research developed and tested a comprehensive model of the antecedents of international graduate students' interest in an international career. Based largely on Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), the model included elements that pertain to perceptions of external constraints (perceptions of the labor market, family pressure to return), international student experience (adjustment in the foreign country during graduate studies, exposure and immersion to the international context) and individual factors (self-efficacy with respect to working abroad and outcome expectancy). Participants were 139 international graduate students in the UK. Individual factors and perceived constraints were directly related to interest in an international career. The factors that comprised current international student experience were indirectly related to interest via their relationship with self-efficacy, while adjustment moderated the relationship between self-efficacy and interest. Although the hypothesized moderating role of family pressure to return did not materialize, the findings suggest that perceptions of constraints play a more substantial role in the formation of interest than has been assumed by SCCT theory thus far. The findings are discussed with respect to their implications for the literature and for the policies of host country stakeholders.     

The migration response to local labour market shocks: Evidence from EU regions during the global economic crisis

The global economic crisis has strongly affected Europe's economic geography. This study investigates the role of local labour market disparities in determining regional net in‐migration rates. While only a weak link is detected in the precrisis period, the local labour market context of migration grows significantly stronger during the crisis. Decompositions of the estimation results show that changes in migration rates are firstly a result of widened disparities across European regions throughout the crisis. However, also behavioural adjustment processes occur, e.g. an orientation of migrants towards urban areas and away from regions with persistently high long‐run unemployment rates.     

Time on Welfare

A bstract . Long-term welfare participation by women is examined using data from Akron , Ohio. Age at entry to welfare, previous work experience , and number of children are the best predictors of long-term welfare use. Race and education are not statistically significant. Changes in family structure are the major reason why women enter welfare. But labor market reasons predortant for married couples. Labor market reasons are the most important reason why women leave the welfare system. For "high risk" women, welfare is less a safety net than a dependency trap. Public policy should focus on pregnancy among high-risk teens.     

Structural change accounting with labor market distortions

This paper quantifies the relative importance of sectoral productivity and labor market distortions for structural change in the U.S., India, Mexico and Brazil between 1960 and 2005. I use census data to compute human capital by sector and infer labor market distortions as sectoral gaps in wage per unit of human capital. I incorporate these distortions into a model of structural change, and calibrate the model to reproduce the time paths of sectoral shares of labor and value added for each country. Counterfactuals reveal that (1) TFP growth in agriculture drives most of the decline in its share of labor; (2) the role of labor market distortions is limited.     

The Demand for Abortion by Unmarried Teenagers

A bstract A demand model was developed and applied to a nationally representative sample of unmarried, pregnant teenagers drawn from the National Longitudinal Surveys in order to identify the economic determinants of abortion Measures of the opportunity costs of pregnancy were found to play a major role in the individual's decision to give birth or to abort Economic variables in the analysis included predicted wages , local area unemployment rates, other family income, poverty status, and school enrollment status Other factors found to be significant were age, ethnicity , and religiosity In general, young women in favorable economic circumstances were substantially more likely than others to abort a pregnancy     

Does talent migration increase inequality? A quantitative assessment in football labour market

I analyze the links between talent migration and cross-country inequality by exploiting the 1995 elimination of mobility restrictions on the European football labor market. I develop a simple model and employ an empirical dataset to estimate its parameters. Through simulation analysis, I compare actual data with a counterfactual no-mobility restriction trajectory, and conclude that the elimination of mobility barriers increases not only cross-country inequality by 25%, but also global output in the football economy by stimulating the production of new talent in Africa, Latin and Central America.     

Credit towards graduation: The impact of US bank deregulation on human capital accumulation

Credit markets affect the real economy. It is important to identify unintended consequences of financial policies. This paper studies the impact of bank branching deregulation on high school graduation. The use of National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 geocoded data focuses the results on three deregulations: Ohio in 1979, Connecticut in 1980, and Alabama in 1981. Discontinuities in treatment assignment at borders between deregulated states and regulated states identify the effect of banking deregulation on high school graduation. Using a regression discontinuity type set up called differences-in-discontinuities, results indicate significant increases in the likelihood of high school graduation for treated individuals. Analysis provides evidence of heterogeneous effects of bank branching deregulation based on skill level and income level.     

农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素分析

文中从宏观和微观两个层面对农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素进行了分析,在此基础上建了多元线性回归的计量模型,并利用2000年到2009年间的统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,务农和进城打工的收入差距、进城打工收入与城镇居民收入之间的差距和城镇失业率这三个宏观层面的因素是影响农村劳动力向城市迁移的主要因素。     

Disentangling Treatment Effects of Active Labor Market Policies: The Role of Labor Force Status Sequences

This paper estimates treatment effects of two active labor market policies – a training program and a wage subsidy scheme – on participants' employment probabilities. The analysis is based on unique data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey containing detailed and extensive individual labor force status histories. We discuss two variants of an exact covariate matching procedure adapted to the specific nature of the data. Our study confirms and reinforces a point raised in recent research [Heckman, J.J., Smith, J.A. The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme: Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies. The Economic Journal 1999; 109; 313-348., Heckman, J.J., Smith, J.A. The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program. Journal of Labor Economics 2004; 22; 243-298.], that pre-treatment labor force status dynamics play a decisive role in determining program participation. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on these individual trinomial sequences of pre-treatment labor market status. The estimator employs a “moving window” technique that nicely controls for changes in the macroeconomic environment over time. Our findings suggest that training raises individual employment probability, while wage subsidies display negative treatment effects for participants in the Polish case.     

Early labor market outcomes of university graduates: Does time to degree matter?

Using university administrative and survey data drawn from the AlmaLaurea Consortium, we analyze the effect of time to degree on the early labor market performance of Italian graduates. The empirical strategy allows identifying separately the impact of elapsed time to degree on the transition from university to work and on earnings from other determinants specific to the academic path completed. Findings suggest that delayed graduation reduces the employment probability (0.8% points for each year of delay), and this effect is still persistent five years after graduation. Once employed, graduates not completing their degree within the minimum period are also penalized in their net monthly earnings, even five years after graduation. The most penalized groups are women and graduates in non-scientific fields.     

Men and islands: Dealing with the family in empirical labor economics

Recent research in family economics emphasizes the interdependence of men's decisions about work and family, and should prompt a reconsideration of the standard practice in labor economics of ‘controlling’ for marital status and children in the analysis of labor market outcomes. Several factors contribute to a concern about work-family simultaneity. First, married men behave very differently from single men, and fathers from non-fathers. Second, transitions into and out of marriage, cohabitation, and custodial parenthood respond to current economic conditions, and not just to fixed individual characteristics. Finally, demographic changes in developed countries have left marriage and parenthood optional, economically ambiguous, and relatively unstable. Labor economists need to recognize that a man's current partnership and parenting status are current choices that can change, that are expected to change, and that respond to the social, economic, and institutional forces that also condition labor market behavior.