农垦国有农用地资本化中粮食安全风险的法律防控

研究目的：通过对农垦国有农用地资本化引发粮食安全风险的因素进行分析,为防范农垦国有农用地资本化过程中可能出现的粮食安全风险提供法律制度建议。研究方法：法解释学、法经济学。研究结果：（1）农垦国有农用地资本化最大的风险是对粮食安全的不利影响,主要表现之一是土地“非农化”“非粮化”,即土地用途管制被突破;二是土地被过度利用或者被污染后土地生产能力下降,修复治理责任难以追究。（2）风险的主要成因在于农垦国有农用地资本化后权利主体多元化,以及现行法律对各权利主体的权利、义务规范的不清晰。研究结论：在法律制度中,应创设新的权利模式,区分“国有农用地所有权行使人”、“国有农用地使用权人”和“国有农用地经营权人”,明确权利指代及各方在农垦国有农用地资本化风险防控中的权利和义务;此外,增设农垦国有农用地开发权,探索建立农垦国有农用地开发权交易制度,均衡国有农用地权利人的经济利益。     

Food Aid, Food Prices, and Producer Disincentives in Ethiopia

Although the short-term aims of food aid are well conceived, strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long-term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries. This article examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in Ethiopia over the period 1996–2006. Monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices. Results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets. These effects, however, appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed. A recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges. Food aid shipments that constitute less than 10% of domestic production appear to be benign, but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets. We use a simple policy simulation to argue that production-sensitive targeting, e.g., conditioning food aid on local food production, would help to circumvent disincentive effects.     

Is There Persistence in the Impact of Emergency Food Aid? Evidence on Consumption, Food Security, and Assets in Rural Ethiopia

We identify the impact of emergency food aid programs after the 2002 drought in rural Ethiopia on future welfare. Based on a difference-in-differences matching estimator, participation in food-for-work increases growth in total consumption and food consumption eighteen months after the drought. Separately, receiving free food raises growth in food consumption, but, surprisingly, negatively impacts food security. Food-for-work benefited households in the middle and upper tail of the consumption distribution, while the better-targeted free food program benefited the poorest. Evidence suggests these impacts demonstrate accumulated and persistent effects of food aid received in the first twelve months after the drought.     

Land fragmentation,climate change adaptation,and food security in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia

Household food security among smallholder farmers is sensitive to a variable and changing climate, requiring farmers in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia to adopt new land management practices to improve food security. Agricultural land in the Gamo Highlands is highly fragmented. The extent to which land fragmentation (LF) moderates the food security effects of sustainable land management (SLM) practices is unknown. This study used probit and Poisson models to explain this relationship. The study found that food insecurity was severe during the food shortfall season. LF provides more potential opportunities for improving food security than challenges. Furthermore, SLM practices had both positive and negative effects on food security and their effects were conditioned by the magnitude of LF. Reducing severe LF through the assembly of small parcels into larger heterogeneous plot clusters could enhance food security by exploiting synergies between adaptation practices and LF.     

“九连增”下的粮食安全隐忧

粮食安全关系到国计民生,是国家战略的重要组成部分。首先简述了我国粮食市场现状和特点以及我国粮食产量的"九连增"对粮食安全的贡献;然后通过分析弃耕现象、人们消费结构的变化和土地资源及水资源的制约,挖掘出我国现存的粮食安全隐忧;最后提出了确保粮食安全的措施。     

Child Growth, Shocks, and Food Aid in Rural Ethiopia

Child stunting in Ethiopia has persisted at alarming rates, despite enormous amounts of food aid, often procured in response to shocks. Using nationally representative data, the study finds that while harvest failure leads to child growth faltering, food aid affected child growth positively and offset the negative effects of shocks in communities that received food aid. However, many communities that experienced shocks did not receive food aid. In sum, while food aid has helped reduce child malnutrition, inflexible food aid targeting, together with endemic poverty and limited maternal education, has left the prevalence of child stunting at alarming levels.     

提高耕地质量对保障粮食安全更为重要

研究目的:探讨提高耕地质量和粮食生产能力的重要性和措施。研究方法:比较分析法和数据统计法。研究结果:耕地质量对社会经济发展和粮食安全的保障具有重要的促进作用;由土地退化、土壤污染等原因造成的农用地质量下降和农业生产能力低下,已对国家粮食安全构成严重威胁。研究结论:现阶段应多管齐下,大力提升耕地质量和粮食生产能力,不仅要高度重视土地污染问题,转变传统粮食供给观念,而且要加大工业反哺农业政策的力度,改变强调数量为主的占补平衡观念,代以新补耕地数量、产量不低于被占用耕地数量、产量的双向衡量标准,保障社会经济的全面发展。     

基于粮食安全和生态安全的耕地生态保护研究

研究目的：在粮食安全和生态安全双重目标下，探索耕地生态保护的内涵、举措及实施路径。研究方法：文献综述法，理论分析法。研究结果：（1）耕地生态保护要注重生态系统结构保护、过程调控以及对区域生态的影响；（2）生态保护以构建高产稳产可持续耕作系统、保护生态系统服务产出能力、减少生态负面效应和统筹发挥山水林田湖草沙生态综合效应为目标；（3）耕地生态保护存在保护动力不足、理论技术体系不完善、保护举措不成体系等问题；（4）耕地生态保护要从景观结构、土壤结构和营养结构等方面开展，并调控好生境、物质输入与输出、作物种植等过程。研究结论：构建以结构保护和过程调控为主线的耕地生态保护路径，能有效促进耕地“三位一体”保护，保障国家粮食安全和生态安全。     

Microcredit Programme Participation and Household Food Security in Rural Bangladesh

Lack of access to credit prevents poor households in developing countries from diversifying into income‐generating activities that could safeguard them against unforeseen shocks and seasonality, leaving them susceptible to food deprivation, even when aggregate food supplies are adequate. Microcredit programmes help these households to access financial capital that could help improve their food security situation. We examine how microcredit affects different measures of food security; namely, household calorie availability, dietary diversity indicators and anthropometric status of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) and children under the age of 5 years. We find that microcredit programme participation increases calorie availability both at the intensive and extensive margins, but does not improve dietary diversity and only has mixed effects on the anthropometric measures. We also find that the effect of microcredit participation on food security may be non‐linear in which participation initially has either no effect on food security or may actually worsen it, before improving it in the longer run. Our results help to explain why existing short‐term evaluations of microcredit sometimes do not show any positive effects.     

“大食物观”统领国土空间开发和保护格局重塑

研究目的：阐释大食物观与国土空间开发和保护的交互逻辑，重塑大食物观统领下的国土空间开发与保护新格局。研究方法：理论分析法、归纳演绎法。研究结果：（1）大食物观是国家粮食安全的全新理念、“人民至上”价值取向的具体实践、新时代生态文明思想的拓展延续、适应全球复杂格局的现实需求；（2）大食物观与国土空间开发和保护关联密切，凸显人地协调的系统逻辑、统筹兼顾的整体逻辑、人与自然和谐的共生逻辑和供需匹配的实践逻辑；（3）当前国土空间开发和保护实践存在偏差，耕地用途管制政策与实践需求不匹配，生态保护红线与农业生产矛盾，生态产品价值缺失导致多方弱参与，“大食物观”边界模糊加大了制度粘度与跨界操作难度；（4）未来应从精细化管控耕地用途、重构大农业生产空间、统筹山水田林湖草海沙开发与保护和创新食品全产业链空间利用模式等方面重塑国土空间开发和保护格局。研究结论：大食物观根植于地、兴旺于业、服务于人，重塑高质量国土空间格局适应大食物观的新时代需求。     

重庆市土地租赁户农作物选择机制及其对粮食安全的威胁

研究目的：通过对重庆市自耕模式和土地流转模式下主要农作物收益和成本进行比较分析,揭示土地流转成本—收益胁迫下农户农作物选择及其对粮食安全的威胁。研究方法：成本收益分析。研究结果：在区位条件好的地方,土地租金占农户现金成本的比例高达61.77%;土地流转成本—收益胁迫下,农户最优选择是种植收益率更高的马铃薯、茄子和萝卜等蔬菜作物,压缩稻谷、玉米等粮食作物;土地租金压力测试表明蔬菜作物可承受压力远大于粮食作物,这使得粮食作物缺乏竞争力;土地流转增多将减少粮食作物种植比重,并威胁地区粮食安全。研究结论：为保障粮食安全,建议地方政府应根据各种农作物的成本收益对粮食作物种植大户提供政策补贴,通过农业保险等市场化手段解决经济作物种植风险。     

国家粮食安全中主产区粮食生产及其贡献的量化对比分析

研究目的:通过量化对比分析,系统认识主产区粮食生产对保障国家粮食安全重要贡献的具体表现及程度,客观分析其经济发展困境及粮食生产方面的成因,为国家加大粮食主产区利益补偿力度、完善补偿机制提供数据参考。研究方法:利用历年全国和地方统计年鉴数据进行多视角的量化对比分析。研究结果:在粮食产量及其增长速度、粮食生产地位、粮食增产贡献率、省均及人均粮食生产水平、粮食生产比较贡献度等方面,粮食主产区均明显高于粮食主销区和产销平衡区。但是,粮食主产区在经济发展、财政收入和居民收入等方面明显落后,存在着粮食生产越多越吃亏的矛盾。研究结论:在保障国家粮食安全过程中,粮食主产区发挥着关键作用,贡献巨大。为了保障国家粮食安全,必须保护粮食主产区政府重农抓粮积极性,加大对粮食主产区,重点是粮食净调出省的利益补偿力度,完善利益补偿机制。     

粮食安全视角下中国耕地“非粮化”研究进展与展望

研究目的：基于粮食安全视角,系统梳理和总结中国耕地“非粮化”研究进展,展望未来研究趋势和重点方向。研究方法：文献回顾法、对比分析法。研究结果：在研究尺度上,既有研究更多关注粮食主产区,而多尺度耦合研究尚显不足;在研究内容上,耕地“非粮化”的概念界定较为一致,但测算方法尚未达成共识,耕地“非粮化”的驱动因素及防治策略较为丰富,但就如何构建区域协调治理机制的研究尚且不足;在研究方法上,主要采用传统的统计分析和计量模型,而地理空间分析技术应用不足且多学科综合研究范式亟需完善。研究结论：未来中国耕地“非粮化”研究应着力构建全方位、多角度认知框架并采取分类化的管控策略,加强与藏粮于地、藏粮于技重大战略的协同推进,强化多尺度耦合研究完善区域协同治理机制,增强测算方式的创新与地理空间分析技术的应用,强化多学科交叉融合研究构建耕地“非粮化”研究新范式。     

Risk Perceptions, Risk Preference, and Acceptance of Risky Food

Consumers' risk preferences are often overlooked in studies of consumer demand for risky food. We find that risk preferences elicited through context-less lottery choices are significantly related to consumers' stated preferences for genetically modified (GM) food. These results suggest risk preferences elicited in the laboratory are not artificial in the sense that they appear to be related to the same risk preferences that govern other individual decisions such as food choice. Consistent with theoretical expectations, risk perceptions and risk preferences were found to be significant determinants of acceptance of GM food, which has important implications for explaining consumer behavior.     

Food Security, Urbanization and Social Stability in China

Chinese development in both the planned economy and reform periods was determined within narrow constraints of food security, agricultural productivity and social organization of production. The reforms and their effects, most prominently rapid urbanization while ensuring food security also caused the loss of cultivable land to agriculture, environmental decline, and new dietary demands on food production. The institutional trajectories and dynamics of these processes are explored in relation to global perspectives on China's global impact.     

Finance Capital,Food Security Narratives and Australian Agricultural Land

The growing involvement of financial actors in food production has been one of the major recent transformations in the global agri‐food system. This ‘financialization’ of the agri‐food sector has been observed at various levels, from commodity speculation to direct investment in agricultural production, along with farmland itself. While there has been concerted effort to track new landownership and control associated with financial actors, especially in the Global South, there has been less impetus to examine the motives of financial actors' engagement in food production and the narratives upon which such engagement is based. This paper examines the way in which a productivist food (in)security discourse is employed by financial actors to legitimate their actions and to position themselves to win public approval. We analyse two cases of agri‐finance investors in the Australian context engaged in the discourse of food (in)security in relation to their agricultural investments – the Macquarie Group and Hassad Australia.     

粮食安全目标下《基本农田保护条例》的缺失与补救

研究目的：在粮食安全目标引领下，审视现行《基本农田保护条例》的缺失，提出补救举措。研究方法：规范分析法和文献研究法。研究结果：为因应保障粮食安全战略的现实急盼，现行《基本农田保护条例》亟待修订。现行《基本农田保护条例》存在如下缺失：一是其目的条款在内容上存在偏误与缺失，无法充分承载保障粮食安全的法律初衷；二是其基础性法律概念未与粮食安全法律体系内的概念保持一致；三是其制度设计未能充分体现“特殊保护”的立法要求。研究结论：上述缺失亟需通过法律修订予以补救。具体举措包括：应以促进粮食生产为直接目的、以保障粮食安全为间接目的，增列生态可持续发展为间接目的，以此重构立法目的条款；应统一“永久基本农田”的规范表达，并据此统一话语体系；应废除永久基本农田的占补制度、确立村级“田长制”的特殊监管职责、建立与地力等级挂钩的梯度补贴制度，优化特殊保护的制度体系。     

Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps.     

Heterogeneous Risk Preferences,Discount Rates and Land Contract Choice in Ethiopia

This paper analyses the role of risk and rate of time preference in the choice of land contracts. The analysis builds on the risk‐sharing and imperfect market explanations of contract choice. Unique data from Ethiopia, which contain land contract information and experimental risk and rate of time preference measures on matched landlord–tenant partners, are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that landlord and tenant time preferences are significant determinants of contract choice. For landlords (but not tenants), risk preference is also significant, indicating the importance of financial constraints and production risk in the determination of contract choice. The results are of particular relevance to land market policy in Ethiopia, where production is risk‐prone, financial markets are imperfect, and where there is a major need for the development of vibrant land rental markets.