A taxonomy of expatriate leaders' cross-cultural uncertainty: insights into the leader–employee dyad

The authors develop a theory-based taxonomy of expatriate leaders' cross-cultural uncertainty toward local employees by drawing on uncertainty reduction theory. Two studies with expatriate leaders provide the empirical basis. The first, qualitative study uses in-depth interviews with 23 expatriate leaders to identify major facets and constructs for describing expatriate leaders in different uncertainty constellations. A quantitative survey-based study with dyadic data about 149 expatriate leaders and their local employees identifies five different expatriate types with regard to their cross-cultural uncertainty. The results reveal performance differences across the five expatriate types.     

Lacking pluralism? A critical review of the use of cultural dimensions in negotiation research

Management Review Quarterly - Cross-Cultural-Negotiations are pivotal in global business. Research frequently approaches this topic using cultural dimensions as underpinning conceptual constructs....     

What effect does uncertainty have on the length of labor contracts?

The literature on duration of explicit labor contracts has suggested that increased uncertainty should be associated with shorter labor contracts. More recently, it has been argued that the effect of uncertainty on contract duration depends on the type of uncertainty involved. Specifically, if the uncertainty pertains to aggregate real shocks, then contract durations should increase as workers seek to insure themselves against the repercussions of such shocks. Using a sample of 1876 labor contracts signed during the period 1977–1988, this paper provides an empirical test of the foregoing hypothesis (known as the efficient risk sharing hypothesis). The paper presents results from estimation of a generalized-probit, simultaneous equation model, in which the dependent variables are contract length, indexation of the contract through a cost-of-living allowance, and the rate of wage change specified in the contract. The empirical findings confirm the efficient risk sharing hypothesis.     

The role of service innovation in the market orientation—new service performance linkage

While most academics generally agree that innovation plays the mediating role between market orientation and new product/service performance, relatively little research has examined how each component of market orientation contributes to new service performance through various types of service innovation. Based on a survey of 235 managers and taking a component-wise approach, this study finds that customer orientation spurs incremental service innovation while inter-functional coordination spurs radical service innovation, both of which, in turn, enhance new service performance. A surprise finding shows that the impact of competitor orientation on new service performance is fully mediated by radical service innovation. The results of this study should help market oriented managers create and evaluate service innovation.     

Agreeing to disagree? Explaining self–other disagreement on leadership behaviour

ABSTRACT

Leadership research tends to treat differences among ratings of the same leaders as measurement error. Our study makes such varying perceptions of leadership behaviour its main phenomenon of investigation. We conceptualize divergent leadership ratings based on the difference between managers’ self-ratings and team members’ assessments of leadership behaviour. Using data from three German public organizations on 51 teams and 190 leader–follower dyads, we find that divergent leadership ratings are a function of managers’ motivation, their use of managerial reflection routines, and team members’ personality. The findings point to the importance of using multisource feedback and developing managers’ self- and other-awareness.     

What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?

This paper evaluates the effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low‐frequency macroeconomic variables representative of the US economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allow us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When looking at detailed investment subcategories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single‐frequency and mixed‐frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.     

Images of poverty and attributions for poverty: does higher education moderate the linkage?

• ‘Development Education’ is a topical phrase describing campaigns to raise public awareness about global poverty, but how do such processes interact with more formal learning experiences, for example in Higher Education? One hundred and seventy-one final-semester Business versus Social Science University students experienced a conventionally ‘cropped’ (child's face only) versus ‘full’ (face-plus-context) campaign-like image of a child in poverty. They also completed the attribution-focused ‘Causes of Third-World Poverty Questionnaire’ (CTWPQ). Business students tended to disagree less than social science students with blaming-the-poor for poverty. More importantly, a cropped image condition resulted in significantly elevated blame-the-poor scores among business students, but not those in social science. Interactions like this suggest that campaign images can be psychologically tailored to differently educated market segments.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve regularly publishes participants’ qualitative assessments of forecast uncertainty, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several conclusions. First, if past performance is a reasonable guide to future accuracy, considerable uncertainty surrounds macroeconomic projections. Second, different forecasters have similar accuracy. Third, estimates of uncertainty about future real activity and interest rates are now considerably greater than prior to the financial crisis; in contrast, estimates of inflation accuracy have changed little. Finally, fan charts, constructed under certain assumptions and viewed in conjunction with the FOMC’s qualitative assessments, provide a reasonable approximation to future uncertainty.     

Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower levels of accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank to assess whether central banks’ uncertainty forecasts might be subject to similar problems. We find that, while most central banks’ uncertainty forecasts also tend to be underconfident at short horizons and overconfident at longer horizons, they are mostly not significantly biased. Moreover, they tend to be at least as precise as unconditional uncertainty forecasts from two different approaches.     

Cournot outcomes under Bertrand–Edgeworth competition with demand uncertainty

We provide new results for two-stage games in which firms make capacity investments when demand is uncertain, then, when demand is realized, compete in prices. We consider games with demand rationing schemes ranging from efficient to proportional rationing. In all cases, there is a subgame perfect equilibrium outcome coinciding with the outcome of the Cournot game with demand uncertainty if and only if (i) the fluctuation in absolute market size is small relative to the cost of capacity, or (ii) uncertainty is such that with high probability the market demand is very large and with the remaining probability the market demand is extremely small. Otherwise, equilibria involve mixed strategies. Further, we show under efficient rationing that condition (i) is sufficient for the unique equilibrium outcome to be an equilibrium outcome of the Cournot game with demand uncertainty.     

The effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options: Evidence from listed companies in China (1998–2019)

We empirically investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment in the presence of growth options using the financial data of listed firms in China from 1998 to 2019. We reveal three key findings in this paper. First, we find that oil price uncertainty has a U-shaped nonlinear effect on corporate investment. In periods of low uncertainty, oil price uncertainty negatively influences corporate investment. However, in periods of high uncertainty, oil price uncertainty positively influences corporate investment. Second, research has found that the U-shaped nonlinear effect is moderated by the irreversibility and growth opportunities of investment decisions. Third, further analyses reveal that this U-shaped nonlinear effect can be changed by a firm’s characteristics. Specifically, this nonlinear effect can only be observed in non-state-owned enterprises and small firms. We test the robustness of our findings and propose several policy suggestions.     

An evaluation of the validity of the Crowne–Marlowe need for approval scale

Over the past four decades, research has consistently documented negative correlations between the Crowne?CMarlowe (CM) social desirability trait scale and numerous measures of sensitive behaviors, conditions, and opinions. These findings have been interpreted as evidence that persons with self-presentation concerns tend to under-report negative information. In contrast to this classic social desirability interpretation, a second perspective, labeled the true-behavior hypothesis, maintains that these correlations in fact reflect accurate reporting of both sets of variables, suggesting that the CM scale is not a sensitive indicator of the social desirability trait. We test these alternative interpretations by examining data from a community survey that collected both self-reports of cocaine use and the biological specimens necessary to validate the self-reports. In bivariate analyses, the CM scale was found to be associated with the concordance of cocaine use reporting and biological assays in a manner consistent with the classic social desirability hypothesis. The CM scale was not found to be associated with actual cocaine use, as measured by drug test assays, a finding inconsistent with the true-behavior hypothesis. After adjusting for other known correlates of substance use in logistic regression models, the CM scale was not associated with cocaine use under-reporting, nor with actual cocaine use behavior. Until further evidence is available, we conclude that the CM may be a questionable indicator of socially desirable reporting behavior in social surveys.     

Discrete implementation of the Groves–Ledyard mechanism

When implementing an economic institution in the field or in the laboratory, the participants’ action spaces and the institution’s outcomes are typically discrete, while our theoretical analysis of the institution often assumes the sets are continuous. Predictions by the continuous model generally turn out to be good approximations to the performance of the discrete implementation. We present an example in which the continuous version has a unique and Pareto efficient equilibrium, but in which the discrete version often has vastly more equilibria, many of them far from efficient. We show that the same phenomenon appears in two experiments investigating the Groves–Ledyard mechanism, and that it may account for the experimental results.     

A dynamic extension of the Foster–Hart measure of riskiness

We analyze the Foster–Hart measure of riskiness for general distributions in dynamic settings. The Foster–Hart measure avoids bankruptcy in the long run. It is not time-consistent.     

Optimal Diamond–Dybvig mechanism in large economies with aggregate uncertainty

This paper characterizes the direct mechanism which implements the constrained optimal outcome in a version of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) with aggregate uncertainty and a continuum of agents. Using this result, numerical examples where the best direct mechanism has a bank-run-equilibrium are easily obtained.     

On the dimensionality of bounds generated by the Shapley–Folkman theorem

The Shapley–Folkman theorem places a scalar upper bound on the distance between a sum of non-convex sets and its convex hull. We observe that some information is lost when a vector is converted to a scalar to generate this bound and propose a simple normalization of the underlying space which mitigates this loss of information. As an example, we apply this result to the Anderson (1978) core convergence theorem, and demonstrate how our normalization leads to an intuitive, unitless upper bound on the discrepancy between an arbitrary core allocation and the corresponding competitive equilibrium allocation.     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Learning and stability of the Bayesian–Walrasian equilibrium

Under the Bayesian–Walrasian Equilibrium (BWE) (see Balder and Yannelis, 2009), agents form price estimates based on their own private information, and in terms of those prices they can formulate estimated budget sets. Then, based on his/her own private information, each agent maximizes interim expected utility subject to his/her own estimated budget set. From the imprecision due to the price estimation it follows that the resulting equilibrium allocation may not clear the markets for every state of nature, i.e., exact feasibility of allocations may not occur. This paper shows that if the economy is repeated from period to period and agents refine their private information by observing the past BWE, then in the limit all agents will obtain the same information and market clearing will be reached. The converse is also true. The analysis provides a new way of looking at the asymmetric equilibrium which has a statistical foundation.     

Assessing the impact of liberalisation policies on the Greek labour market: an insider–experts' view from the perspective of the varieties of liberalisation

During the recent Great Recession (2008–2018), Greece has become the prototype example of the implementation of austerity policies in Europe. Contrary to public discourse, these austerity policies were complemented by substantial labour market reforms that promoted employment and wage flexibility. This article aims to present a theory-driven understanding of the implementation and the effects of these reforms. For this purpose, we employ a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews with 50 labour market experts—government officials and labour lawyers, academics, labour union representatives and employer association representatives. Using Thelen's framework on the Varieties of Liberalization, we conclude that, contrary to the initial aims of the reforms, Greece followed a trajectory of direct deregulation, reducing considerably the level of both coordination between employers and workers, and coverage of employment protection. The interviews show that the dismantling of collective bargaining system was the most decisive move in this path.     

Exploratory and exploitative innovation: To what extent do the dimensions of individual level absorptive capacity contribute?

Individuals are considered the frontline that allows firms to learn from external sources. However, a firm can only benefit from individual efforts if it understands to what extent the dimensions of individual-level absorptive capacity are related to its innovation strategy. A firm's innovation strategy is characterized by the notions of exploration and exploitation, which result in either radical or incremental innovation. This study examines the driving factors of individual-level absorptive capacity regarding a firm's exploration versus exploitation strategy. Using quantitative data from 104 individuals, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis was conducted, verifying individuals' competencies in identifying external knowledge as a trigger for both exploratory and exploitative innovation. Consequently, these specific abilities also contribute to organizational ambidexterity. Furthermore, the results show the dichotomous contribution of individual competencies in assimilating external knowledge. While exploratory innovation thrives with individual assimilation efforts, realization of exploitative innovation is not significantly related to these efforts. Ultimately, individuals' competencies in utilizing external knowledge are significantly related to neither exploratory nor exploitative innovation. Moreover, this study provides means for managers to systematically position individuals in the external search process.