印刷行业上市公司巡礼

印刷业的上市公司伴随着中国证券市场的风风雨雨，一同走过十多年的历程，目前在沪、深两市上市的印刷板块企业已达7家。这些上市公司充分利用证券市场资本的杠杆，不但企业自身得到了长足的发展，大多已经成为行业中的领军角色，同时也促进了中国印刷产业的进步。随着我国印刷企业生产设备的更新，技术水平的提高，世界印刷业的中心经历了从欧洲转到东南亚，直至转移到中国的过程，作为行业领头羊的上市公司，当然功不可没。     

Forecasting volatility in the Singapore stock market

Volatility forecasting is a major area in the pricing of derivative securities, such as stock and index options. In this paper, we compare three methods of forecasting volatility. These are the naive method based on historical sample variance, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method, and the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. Out-of-sample forecasts of monthly return variances generated by these three methods are compared. The results strongly favour the EWMA method.The authors are from the Department of Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation respectively. The views expressed in this paper are entirely personal, and do not represent those of any institution.     

激情燃烧的股市

股市跌跌撞撞地进入四月份,市场对短信等热点渐渐没了兴趣,钢铁股的增发,银行股增发、转债的纷纷上市,中国联通战略投资者上市,种种利空困扰着投资者,再加上国际局势不稳,传言纷至,每个人对手中的股票渐渐地有了疑惑。可是突然之间,这一切的一切,都被凌钢股份(600231)的吓人季报所摧毁,一个季度0.24元的收益,6元的股价,投资者开始发蒙,就是说买进凌钢的话,六年就可以让资金翻一番……于是热情被煽动起来。     

Seasonality and cultural influences on four Asian stock markets

We use daily returns to identify seasonality on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE), The Stock Exchange, Bombay (SEB), the Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES) and The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). On all four, we find strong day-of-the-week effects. Month-of-the-year effects exist on the KLSE and the SES but not on the SET or the BSE. Strong Chinese New Year effects are evident on the SES and the KLSE. The Chinese New Year effect on the SET is among small capitalization stocks. On the KLSE, we also find Islamic New Year and Vesak effects, but no Aidilfitri effect. Only weak holiday effects concerning several Indian lunar holidays are evident on the BSE. In general we find that cultural holidays evidence a stronger effect than state holidays. These results confirm the importance of cultural influences in the pricing of stocks.M. W. L. Chan is Professor of Finance and Business Economics at McMaster University, Canada, Anya Khanthavit Associate Professor of Finance, Thammasat University, Thailand and Hugh Thomas Assistant Professor of Finance, McMaster University, Canada. The authors would like to thank the Association of Deans of Southeast Asian Graduate Schools of Management for the financial support that enabled this research to be undertaken and an anonymous referee for his many insightful and constructive suggestions. Please direct all correspondence to Hugh Thomas, School of Business, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4M4, Canada, tel: (905) 522-6861 ext 23983 or email thomas@mcmaster.ca..     

8月东莞兴业木材市场行情

受消费市场萎靡不振的影响,下游木材加工企业的国产材采购量并不理想。东北桦、水曲柳、椴木、柞木等品种自7月至今仍处平淡态势。另外,物美价廉的新疆青杨木行情大不如前,今夏销量仅为往年同期销量的20—40％。     

国内动漫玩具第一股 广东奥飞动漫上市获批准

摩根士丹利研究部近日公布的资料显示,中国的动漫产业将在5-10年内实现产值达到占GDP的1%。无疑,中国的动漫卡通市场将进入一个高速增长期。近日,国内最大的动漫玩具企业——广东奥飞动漫文化股份有限公司（下称“奥飞动漫”）的首发申请已于近日获证监会发审委批准通过,并将成为国内第一家以动漫玩具为主业的上市公司。     

Price changes and trading volume relationship in the Hong Kong stock market

Studies on the relationship between price changes and trading volume can provide insight into the structure of the financial market. In this paper, we will study the above topic and concentrate on the stock market of Hong Kong. The correlation between price changes and trading volume as well as that between the magnitude of price changes and trading volume will be examined. We will also check the asymmetry of the price changes and volume relationship. Moreover, we will investigate the relationship between the variance of return and trading volume. Finally, the Granger causality test of price changes and volume will be performed.     

The use of stock market returns in antitrust analysis of mergers

One of the most promising recent innovations in merger analysis has been the attempt to predict the effects of horizontal mergers by examining the share prices of the rivals to the merging firms. In this paper we describe the standard procedure, discuss some of the major criticisms of that procedure, and propose a modification, apply it to a sample of recent mergers, contrast the results with those from the standard procedure, and discuss the appropriate uses and remaining limitations of the model for antitrust analysis.The views expressed in this paper reflect those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their employer. We wish to thank the referees and Mary Streitwieser for helpful comments, and Becky Carr for excellent typing services.     

Financial and stock market variables as predictors of management buyouts

This paper investigates whether publicly held firms which change to private ownership through management buyouts (ex-public firms) possess characteristics prior to the change which differentiate them from firms which remain publicly owned. The financial characteristics of ex-public firms for the year immediately prior to going private were analyzed. A multivariate framework was developed to determine which attributes best distinguished firms going private via management buyouts from similar firms not going private. A discriminant function was developed using seven ratios: (1) concentration of ownership, (2) cash flow to net worth, (3) cash flow to total assets, (4) price/earnings ratio, (5) price/book value ratio, (6) book value of depreciable assets in relation to original costs, and (7) dividend yield. The model demonstrated a classification accuracy of 77.8 percent for the original sample and 81.4 percent in a hold-out sample validation. These findings imply that financial characteristics alone provide a means by which firms going private via management buyouts can be separated from others. Therefore one can argue that, regardless of the stated motive for going private, financial characteristics either are explicit decision variables or directly reflect non-financial reasons for management buyouts.     

Causality of interest rate,exchange rate and stock prices at stock market open and close in Hong Kong

By an ARIMA approach and verified by the Granger causality tests, the causality of daily interest rate, exchange rate and stock prices in Hong Kong were explored for the period 1986 to 1991. Depending on the subperiods being considered, sporadic unidirectional causality from closing stock prices to interest rate, and weak bi-directional causality between stock prices and the exchange rate were found. The overall evidence, however, appears to show that the Hong Kong market efficiently incorporated much of the interest rate and exchange rate information in its price changes both at daily market close and open.The author would like to acknowledge helpful comments from two anonymous referees, helpful suggestions by Dr Daniel Cheung and research assistance from Theresa Tam. This project is supported by a research grant from the Institute of Social Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

我国上市公司盈余管理识别方法

滥用盈余管理会使会计信息失去公允性、可靠性和可比性,从而误导投资者并影响证券市场资源优化配置的功能.本文针对上市公司盈余管理的现状和主要手法,提出了识别上市公司盈余管理陷阱的一些方法.     

MBO对上市公司经营业绩影响分析

本文从MBO公司MBO前后经营业绩变化的角度,分析MBO对上市公司经营业绩影响,从而分析MBO公司经营业绩变化原因,并对国内再次实施MBO提出若干建议.     

Do Asian stock market prices follow martingales? Evidence from spectral shape tests

This paper examines the martingale hypothesis for five Asian stock markets using the spectral shape tests of Durlauf (1991). Unlike the variance ratio test employed in previous studies (eg, Panet al, 1991), the spectral shape tests are consistent againstall stationary alternatives to the martingale null.The spectral shape tests were applied to daily and weekly returns on the stock indices of Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan over a period of 17 years. The results show that the martingale null is rejected for most markets. There is some evidence that the rejections may be due to low frequency or long memory influences.The authors are lecturers, Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore. This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Asian-Pacific Financial Markets, September 9–11, 1993 in Singapore. We have benefited greatly from the comments of Y K Tse and other conference participants.     

Teams investing their knowledge shares in the stock market of virtuality: a gain or a loss?

Best knowledge-sharing practices in team-based work are a 'must' for success in flexible and adaptable organisation forms. This research study provides actionable insights on how managers can enhance the knowledge worker's willingness to collaborate in a specific type of virtual teaming, the learning team, and build better communication and collaboration practices in and between these teams.     

监管与防范上市公司虚假财务报告的理性思考

本文通过对上市公司虚假财务报告的成因、监管及防范对策等问题的分析研究,结合制度失衡和舞弊理论分析,认为在我国现实环境下,上市公司质量控制制度引发公司管理层虚假披露财务报告的压力和动机;上市公司会计信息披露行为制度的失衡为财务报告舞弊创造了机会;而上市公司会计信息监管处罚制度有可能掩饰作假行为和减少虚假财务报告被发现的概率,甚至制度环境可能形成上市公司管理层和注册会计师的审计合谋。因此,治理虚假财务报告是一个系统工程,需要从多方面着手进行,进而提出应从完善公司治理机制、推进会计师事务所体制改革、健全民事赔偿机制等方面建立一套有效的监管机制,并具体阐述了防范虚假财务报告的一系列可行的对策。     

Alliance capability,stock market response,and long‐term alliance success: the role of the alliance function

This paper addresses two key questions: (1) what factors influence firms' ability to build alliance capability and enjoy greater alliance success, where firm‐level alliance success is measured in two ways: (a) abnormal stock market gains following alliance announcements and (b) managerial assessments of long term alliance performance; and (2) are the two alternate ways of assessing alliance success correlated? We find that firms with greater alliance experience and, more importantly, those that create a dedicated alliance function (with the intent of strategically coordinating alliance activity and capturing/disseminating alliance‐related knowledge) realize greater success with alliances. More specifically, firms with a dedicated alliance function achieve greater abnormal stock market gains (average of 1.35%) and report that 63 percent of alliances are successful whereas firms without an alliance function achieve much lower stock market gains (average of 0.18%) and only a 50 percent long‐term success rate. We also find a positive correlation between stock market‐based measures of alliance success and alliance success measured through managerial assessments. In addition to providing insights into the development of alliance capability among firms, this paper is one of the first to provide empirical support for the efficient markets argument by demonstrating that the initial stock market response to a key event positively correlates to the long‐term performance and value of the event. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

第四讲股权结构与股票的种类

股本是企业按照公司章程和投资协议的规定向股东募集的资本,它代表股东对公司净资产的所有权.股份有限公司的股本是在核定的资本总额及核定的股份总额的范围内通过向股东发行股票的方式筹集的.每个股东股本的多少标志股东股权的大小.     

Segmenting a market in the making: Industrial market segmentation as construction

This paper takes an empirical starting point in a claim that Biacore, a pioneering Swedish producer of affinity biosensors, was “in the enviable position of creating its own market” (Abelin, 1997). An in-depth case study traces how Biacore undertook segmentation activities while shaping the market for its new product technology, affinity biosensors. This involved stabilising the modes of exchange with customers, the product and the identity of the company. The efforts of Biacore highlight a constructive dimension of market segmentation that hitherto has received little attention. Rather than a process of describing, deciding and taking action, Biacore engaged in the gradual construction of market segments through an interactive and iterative process involving close collaboration with early users. Simultaneously, the market for the new technology gained shaped. Thus, the paper reports a ‘markets from networks’ story illustrating how the practice of segmenting a market may have consequences for that market.     

Assessment of stock size to minimize cutting stock production costs

A method for assessing the optimal stock size for the expected order size for a single-period one-dimensional cutting stock problem is proposed. The stock size is optimal when the expected total costs of trim loss, warehousing, and non-fulfilment are minimum. The stock size is the sum of all bar lengths in the stock, and the order size is the sum of shorter bar lengths in various numbers of pieces. Using simulated test cases, a statistical estimation of optimal stock size is conducted, which in our case is approximately 50% above the expected order. The proposed method can help company choose the appropriate level of stock to minimize their total costs.     

Announcement effects and market efficiency in a thin market: An empirical application to the Singapore equity market

Studies of share price responses to public announcements have assumed that there is no serious thinness in trading. This paper reports the findings of a study of price responses of thinly-traded shares in the Singapore equity market. With appropriate methodological refinements for thinness in trading, the announcement effects of earnings, dividends and capitalisation changes are studied. The results suggest that there are statistically significant abnormal returns during the months up to and including the month of announcement. With some minor exceptions, there appears to be no significant abnormal returns during the months after the announcements: semi-strong form efficiency is thus observed. These results are consistent with prior findings in the developed capital markets.The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. This paper has benefitted from financial assistance of the Department of Commerce of the University of Queensland.