经济开放、劳动需求弹性与消费需求

经济开放通过FD I和国际贸易影响我国劳动力需求弹性,这意味着劳动者在面临负向冲击时工资会有较大的向下压力,从而可能造成较大幅度收入下降,导致消费需求的下降。本文使用中国27个省、市、自治区1993年至2006年的面板数据,实证检验了经济开放、劳动需求弹性与消费需求之间的影响机制。结果表明,FD I流入与国际贸易使得劳动需求弹性增加,进而导致消费需求下降。因此,为加快形成消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长新局面,需要完善对劳动者的保护和社会保障机制,保持收入稳定增长。     

长三角地区城市FDI区位决定动态研究——空间计量的视角

文章以长三角25个地级以上城市为样本,利用空间计量学方法对其1991-2008年的FD I区位决定进行实证分析。结果发现:近20年来长三角城市FD I区位决定因素及其作用发生了动态变化,一些传统因素如市场规模、城市化水平、产业发展、工资水平、与上海距离等影响不再显著或有弱化趋势,取而代之的是外资集聚经济和工资效率因素上升为主导地位,其作用不断增强,基础设施因素影响日趋重要。值得注意的是,邻域空间关联效应一直是影响长三角城市FD I区位分布的重要因素,城市吸引FD I不仅取决于自身区位条件,还受周边城市FD I聚集的影响。上述发现对于长三角各城市利用FD I和跨国公司投资都具有重要政策意义。     

外商直接投资在上海的资本积累效应

采用上海市1978-2005年的经济数据,对外商直接投资(FD I)的资本积累效应进行数理统计分析。协整检验显示:FD I对上海市的国内投资产生了显著的挤出效应。为此政府要加强对FD I的引导和监管,强力培育国内资本市场,提高民营资本对经济增长的贡献率。     

FDI对我国的技术溢出效应分析

FD I的大量进入对东道国长期且根本性的原因就在于其技术溢出效应。本文分析了FD I的技术溢出途径和内在机理,并针对FD I技术溢出效应发挥在我国受到制约的因素,提出要积极采取措施促进技术溢出效应的产生,从而不断提高我国企业的内生技术能力。     

我国国际贸易环境分析及政策选择

近些年我国国际贸易企业面临的国际贸易环境发生了变化,主要表现为多边贸易发展与贸易保护增加并存,国际贸易风险增加,国际贸易结构转型,国际贸易规则制订参与度不高等特点。为此我国要提高国际贸易企业的综合竞争力、实现产业结构优化及主动参与国际贸易规则的制订等,以全面提升我国国际贸易的规模与水平。     

服务业FDI与服务贸易互动关系的实证研究

通过对1990—2009年样本数据的ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰检验,实证分析我国服务业FD I和服务贸易的互动关系。结果显示：我国服务业FD I与服务贸易存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且相互促进。     

从国民财富实质谈网络与国际贸易的关系

国际贸易理论自亚当·斯密展开讨论以来,已经有三百多年历史了.世界贸易从最初的较为单一的模式,演变为以WTO为主要框架的全世界范围内、绝大多数国家均参与其中的模式.自20世纪90年代以来,席卷全球的网络风暴,已经将网络应用渗透到人们生活的方方面面.本文基于此网络视角,从国民财富的实质的角度分析信息时代下网络与国际贸易的关系,并从生产领域、流通领域、推广渠道三个方面展开网络对国际贸易影响的理论研究.通过理论研究与实践分析,总结出网络对国际贸易的影响,同时从上述三个方面提出具体的对策,为未来发展提供建议.     

国际贸易技术溢出对我国的影响——基于工业制成品部门的GTAP模型分析

本文运用GTAP模型实证模拟了北美等八大区域工业制品部门的技术进步对我国经济发展、国际贸易及社会福利等方面的影响。研究发现:八大区域均能通过国际贸易技术溢出促进我国工业制成品部门技术的进步及社会福利的增加;但与Jaumotte(1999)和Connolly(2003)等文献结论不同,俄罗斯、北美和欧洲等区域对我国工业制成品部门产出及GDP增长至少在短期内有较大冲击,并会加大我国的贸易逆差。     

丹麦社会福利制度运行机制对中国的启示

丹麦的社会福利制度起步早,发展快,经过一百多年的努力,该制度取得了举世瞩目的成就。丹麦的社会福利制度运行机制主要包含资金和管理、家庭福利政策、失业和社会保障、医疗和残疾人保险和老年人保险五个方面。丹麦全面而高度发展的社会福利制度使得其国民充分享受到了国民经济发展的福泽。我国有必要从丹麦成功的社会福利制度中得到启示,借鉴其成功经验,进一步完善我国的社会保障制度,使得国民幸福感得到提升。     

外商直接投资对江苏经济的影响分析

本文分析了江苏省利用外商直接投资(FD I)的现状特征,研究探讨了FDI对江苏经济发展的积极影响和目前存在的问题,并对提高外商直接投资质量提出相应对策。     

FDI in post-production services and product market competition

Post-production services, such as sales, distribution, and maintenance, comprise a crucial element of business activity. We explore an international duopoly model in which a foreign firm has the option of outsourcing post-production services to its domestic rival or providing those services by establishing its own facilities through FDI. We demonstrate that trade liberalization in goods may hurt domestic consumers and lower world welfare, and that the negative welfare impacts are turned into positive ones if service FDI is also liberalized. This finding yields important policy implications, given the reality that the progress of liberalization in service sectors is still limited.     

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? The knowledge‐capital model revisited

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract foreign direct investment (FDI), this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilising an extended version of the knowledge‐capital model. With a special focus on the effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) or an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between a pair of market and non‐market countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (i) although FTA/EPA generally tends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labour decreases as the size of the country grows; (ii) a developing country may suffer severe welfare losses through FTA/EPA if the availability of skilled labour is extremely limited; and (iii) a developing country can enhance welfare gains from a FTA, and it is even possible to recover the welfare effects from negative to positive, by making the arrangement an EPA.     

产品内贸易、市场结构与福利效应:跨国公司海外扩张模式的解读

本文旨在通过构建一个包含中间品市场和最终品市场在内的产品内贸易模型,考察差异化市场结构对跨国公司选择垂直FDI和外包两种海外扩张模式的影响。研究结果表明,在上、下游市场之间存在某种传导机制的情况下,一体式非完全专业化的生产方式与产品内分工贸易的规模负相关,不断增加的最终品市场的垄断强度,不仅会导致跨国公司内部所有生产要素的福利水平遭受不同程度的损失,还会进一步缩小产品内贸易的规模。     

Environmental Policy,North-South Trade and FDI

We analyze trade between two countries, called the North and the South. There is one firm in each country and production costs are lower in the South. To serve foreign markets firms may export or engage in FDI. Both countries set tariffs on imported goods. We find that the implementation of an environmental policy by the South may affect the location decision of the Southern firm. When only the North sets an environmental tax, firms engage in FDI if the difference in costs between the two countries is low, otherwise the South exports and the Northern firm engages in FDI. If the South also sets an environmental tax, this does not restrict FDI by Northern firm, encourages FDI by the domestic firm, reduces its environmental damage and increases joint welfare. Finally, in equilibrium the South decides to implement an environmental policy and both firms engage in FDI.     

Foreign direct investment and customs union: Incentives for multilateral tariff cooperation over free trade

The present article examines the implications of a customs union (CU) on the pattern of tariffs, welfare and the prospects for free trade when the non-member firm has an incentive to engage in foreign direct investment (FDI). First, I show that upon the formation of a bilateral CU, the non-member firm has greater incentives to engage in FDI. However, when FDI becomes a feasible entry option for the non- member firm under a CU, member countries have incentives to strategically induce export over FDI by lowering their joint external tariff. When fixed set-up cost of FDI is sufficiently low, this tariff falls below Kemp–Wan tariff and CU leads to a Pareto improvement relative to no agreement. Moreover, using an infinite repetition of the one-shot tariff game under a CU, I show that the presence of FDI incentive of the non-member firm makes the member countries more willing to cooperate multilaterally over free trade while the opposite is true for the non-member country. Finally, I find that, unless fixed cost of having an additional plant is sufficiently low, multilateral cooperation over free trade is easier to sustain when FDI incentive is present.     

我国外贸外资的技术溢出效应分析

技术溢出是发展中国家分享世界技术进步成果的重要路径,溢出的渠道主要包括国际贸易和国际直接投资(FDI)等。本文运用经拓展后的Coe&Helpman的贸易溢出计量模型,将我国从商品贸易以及FDI中所获得的技术溢出纳入同一模型中加以综合分析。经测度表明,我国外贸外资的技术溢出效应都较显著,且相互间存在着共生互补关系,但相对说来,外资的技术溢出效应略大于外贸的溢出效应;同时,国内R&D的资本存量对外贸外资的技术溢出效应有重要影响,并在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Endogenous tariffs and trade adjustment assistance

This paper examines whether trade adjustment assistance is an effective tool for blunting political opposition to trade liberalization. The traditional argument is that adjustment assistance bribes labor unions so that they will accept reduced tariff protection. In this way, a trade adjustment assistance program should help the government lower tariffs and increase social welfare. This paper introduces trade adjustment assistance into a political economy model of endogenous tariff formation. The model shows that adjustment assistance reduces policy makers’ incentives to press for trade liberalization and may slow down the pace of reform and lower social welfare under certain plausible conditions.     

基于贸易引力模型的FDI与省区双边贸易流量的实证分析

运用贸易引力模型分析FDI和各省市区国际贸易的关系,对2007年我国30个省市区和26个国家或地区的双边贸易面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明各省市区FDI与国际贸易之间存在互补关系,从三大经济区域来看,东部FDI对国际贸易的弹性最大,其次是中部地区,西部地区最小。基于资源禀赋差异的垂直贸易体制加剧了FDI投资于我国的趋势。各省市区的贸易模式取决于贸易双方的经济规模和地理距离。双边贸易流量的规模与各自的经济总量呈正比,双方的地理距离(运输成本)构成了两地之间贸易的阻力因素,地理位置成为阻碍中部和西部地区国际贸易发展的重要因素。     

外国直接投资与我国进出口贸易的关系——基于不同贸易方式的实证分析

本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型,根据我国1981-2004年的统计数据,考察了我国吸收的外国直接投资对不同贸易方式下的对外贸易产生的不同影响。结果表明:从长期看,外国直接投资与加工贸易进出口之间存在长期均衡关系,而与一般贸易进出口之间不存在长期均衡关系;从短期看,外国直接投资对加工贸易进出口都具有促进作用,而一般贸易进出口对外国直接投资的变动反应不敏感。     

外国直接投资与我国对外贸易失衡

我国与美国、欧盟的贸易顺差增大,外汇储备激增,原因错综复杂,其中,在我国改革开放和特殊的工业化进程中,经济全球化和国际分工加速发展,世界产业结构大调整,外国直接投资持续增加才是根本原因。由于外国直接投资对我国贸易顺差存在着两种效应:直接效应和间接影响,即外国直接投资对我国产生明显的贸易创造效应,同时又具有一定的贸易替代效应,间接增加了贸易顺差,从而加剧了我国的贸易失衡。本文运用协整检验,建立误差修正模型,验证了外国直接投资与我国贸易顺差存在长期均衡关系,即正相关关系。只有从生产领域和外商投资的角度入手才能从根本上缓解贸易顺差的扩大。