Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan

This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic dynamics in Japan with a particular focus on the effects of anticipated fiscal policy shock and the recent policies of Abenomics. We identify anticipated fiscal policy shock by combining excess stock returns for the construction industry and the vector autoregressive model with robust sign restrictions derived from a theoretical model. The primary result is that GDP and consumption respond positively to anticipated fiscal policy shock. In addition, the result of the historical decomposition that focuses on the period of Abenomics reveals that anticipated fiscal policy shock positively contributes to consumption dynamics.     

Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data

Theories that explain the behavior of the economy during the Depression are based on assumptions about agents’ expectations about future price trends. This paper uses an alternative methodological approach which utilizes real-time information from the Depression period to infer whether deflation was anticipated. The information includes the forecasting methodology of that time as well as projections about anticipated output that were obtained from the textual analysis of business statements, converting qualitative to quantitative data. We infer that deflation was not anticipated because agents did not expect economic output to consistently decrease.     

Anticipated monetary policy and real output: evidence from Latin American countries

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies on real output for 13 LDCs in Latin and Central America. The well-know Mishkin econometric procedure is applied to the annual IMF date for the decomposition of actual money growth into anticipated and unanticipated components and the evidence of significant relation between anticipated money supply and real output for each country is reported. The results derived in this paper thus provide additional empirical support for the validity of the ‘non-classical rational expectations’ macro models of Fisher, and Phelps and Taylor.     

Some implications of the natural rate hypotheses

Changes in the anticipated and actual levels of inflation change the incentive to hold monetary and nonmonetary assets. We present a model with a production sector and markets for labor, capital, bonds, and money. The response of the model to changes in the anticipated inflation rate is derived. Restrictions implied by the various natural rate hypotheses are discussed. An asymmetry in the response of the economy to anticipated inflation and deflation makes the natural rate conditions more plausible for inflationary as opposed to deflationary equilibria. A new version of the liquidity trap is suggested by the analysis.     

Output and unemployment dynamics in transition

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation and output cycles after the implementation, that are more volatile than had a reform of identical magnitude been implemented immediately. However, the more volatile output trajectory of the anticipated case yields a higher PDV of output than an unanticipated reform of equal magnitude. This suggests that an anticipated reform is better than an unanticipated reform, even though the former induces greater volatility.     

Decision Utility and Anticipated Discrete Emotions: An Investment Decision Model

Integrating theories and findings from various disciplines, we develop a decision utility model to explain how anticipated discrete emotions mediate investment decisions. We illustrate the model with the anticipated discrete emotions of a hypothetical Ponzi scheme investor and suggest practical measures to manage financial risks, emotionally.     

Effects of fiscal policies on US agriculture

According to the macro rational expectation (MRE) hypothesis, only unanticipated macroeconomic policy has impacts on real economic variables, and anticipated policy changes have no real impacts. This study analysis the effects of the anticipated and unanticipated components of fiscal policy on the US farm real GNP by testing the neutrality and rationality propositions of the MRE hypothesis. The test results show that both the rationality and neutrality propositions are rejected. The empirical findings indicate that the anticipated fiscal policy does have significant effects on farm output. Examination of a specific sector sheds light on the nature of the market and helps ascertain the resons for the non-neutrality.     

Scarcity and appropriative competition

This paper formalizes the commonsensical hypothesis that resource scarcity causes a large allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Our main innovation is to model explicitly the positive intertemporal effect of consumption on the probability of survival. The critical assumption is that this effect becomes stronger as resources become scarcer. We also show that anticipated future resource abundance increases the incremental value of survival and, consequently, amplifies the current allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Interestingly, if resources are currently scarce, then larger anticipated future abundance can cause a big enough increase in the time and effort allocated to appropriative competition to result in a decrease in the sum of current and expected future utility, a “paradox of anticipated abundance”.     

试论两种不同类型的多重均衡模型的局限性

多重均衡模型是金融危机研究中重要的理论模型之一 ,本文研究发现 ,在危机文献中有很多所谓的“多重均衡模型”并非NASH均衡模型 ,而是不同预期下的市场均衡模型。本文分析了这种差别和多重均衡模型的局限性 ,从投资者对市场风险预期出发分析了“预期自我实现”的作用 ,对金融危机的传染提出新的解释并澄清了有关“基本面”和“预期自我实现”理论上的分歧。     

Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments

Abstract. Government policies are frequently known to be temporary and thus their termination is perfectly anticipated. These foreseen policy changes must be consistent with equilibrium in both the goods market and asset markets. Potential problems arise because prices often play dual roles, both as final goods prices, and as asset prices, as components of rates of return. We show how the economy accommodates an anticipated policy change depends upon its production flexibility and its structure. With flexible investment, an anticipated reduction in government expenditure is fully accommodated by capital accumulation. When investment involves adjustment costs, the marginal utility of wealth and the price of capital both jump so as to maintain equality among rates of return. Goods market clearance is maintained by a combination of increases in consumption and investment. Extensions of the model to include inventories and to a small open economy are also considered and contrasted.     

FISCAL POLICIES IN AN INTERTEMPORAL DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMIC MODEL

A two-period macroeconomic model where consumption and investment decisions are given microeconomic foundations is presented. The model is used to analyse the effects of both current and anticipated fiscal expansion; careful attention is paid to the implications of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. It is shown that anticipated fiscal expansion may, in certain circumstances, be expansionary. Also, current fiscal expansion, if financed by bonds which are retired through future money creation, may be contractionary.     

A model of the linked adoption of complementary technologies

This paper presents a dynamic feedback model of the technology diffusion process in which each firm's technology adoption decisions maximize the net present value of its anticipated cash flow, taking into account the direct cost savings, the number of linked firms expected to adopt complementary technologies, and anticipated changes in adoption costs. The adoption of complementary technologies need not be simultaneous, but linked technologies can induce a rapid industrial regime shift without explicit coordination or planning.     

The real balance effect and the non-neutrality of money in a simple model of a small open economy

The paper examines the implications of the real balance effect for the neutrality of money in a small open economy model which contains an explicit treatment of aggregate supply. Two specific results emerge. First, an unanticipated monetary expansion is neutral in both the long and short runs, whilst an anticipated increase in the money supply has real short-run effects. Secondly, the non-neutrality associated with an anticipated monetary expansion manifests itself in a fall in output and employment during the transition to the new steady-state.     

The effect of market conduct on international steam coal trade

This paper is concerned with the determinants of international steam coal trade. Most quantitative work in explaining such trade has been stymied by the apparent failure of the competitive model to account for observed and anticipated trade flows. In general, authors have sought institutional explanations for this failure. The hypothesis explored by this paper is that the exercising of market power by certain agents in the market can lead to trade patterns consistent with those observed and anticipated. This hypothesis is explored through a simple model of imperfect market equilibrium. In addition to perfect competition, we examine Cournot-Nash monopoly (South Africa), duopoly (South Africa, Australia) and duopoly/monopsony (South Africa, Australia, Japan) with a competitive fringe of producers (US, Canada, Poland, China, Colombia). Using the equilibrium model of coal trade, we examine these market structures and evaluate the extent to which they can explain existing and anticipated trade patterns.     

The effects on output of anticipated and unanticipated money growth: a case study of an oil-producing country

The new classical macroeconomic hypotheisis regarding the effecs of money growth on real variables sugggests that the anticipated changes in money supply on real variables are neutral, irrespective of the time horizon; whereas, the unanticipated changes in the money supply, although neutral in the long run, exert, significant influence on real variables in the short run. This proposition has produced unsettled empirical results. The present study attempts to verify empirically the new classical hypothesis in the case of a developing oil-producing Middle Eastern country, Iraq. Our study suggests that the anticipated components of money growth rates have positive and significant influence on real variables. The results of this study do not lend support to the new classical hypothesis. Instead they suggest that a steady growth rate of money supply that is fully anticipated by economic agents builds confidence by reducing errors in expectation regarding the behaviour of the money supply and provides easier access to liquid funds for capital formation.     

The nonneutrality of money and employment rates: Tobin and taxation effects

This paper demonstrates sufficient conditions for a system of income taxation to create a negative relationship between the steady-state rates of fully anticipated inflation and employment. The model examined is an extension of the one developed by Fischer (1979) to demonstrate the nonneutrality of money in an economy where inflation is accurately anticipated in the long-run equilibrium.     

The upward trend in women’s college-going: the role of teenagers’ anticipated future labour force attachment

This article focuses on the role of teenagers’ anticipated labour force participation in explaining the upward trend in U.S. women’s college-going. A simple conceptual model implies that individuals with more anticipated lifetime hours of work are more likely to invest in college education. My analysis using data from three National Longitudinal Surveys supports the theoretical implication. This finding, combined with the trend towards higher work expectations of young women across birth cohorts, may account in part for the upward trends in women’s college attendance and completion.     

货币政策无效性命题在中国的实证研究

本文采用两步OLS方法考察了中国货币政策对实际产出的影响 ,实证结果倾向于拒绝政策无效性命题 (PIP)。实证研究表明预期到的与未预期到的货币都影响产出 ,货币政策对产出在 1 0 %的显著水平上存在非对称性影响。笔者认为在中国预期到的货币政策影响产出 ,其原因是不完全的市场与价格刚性的存在。     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.     

Estimating anticipated and nonanticipated demand elasticities for cigarettes in Spain

This paper will test whether tobacco consumption generates addiction in Spanish people. If this is the case, can such addiction be explained in the context of rational addiction theory? Elasticities are also obtained in the cases where price variations can be anticipated or, by contrast, where they cannot. The results first reveal the addictive and rational character of Spanish tobacco consumption. With respect to estimated demand elasticities, we find the expected results, namely that the anticipated values are higher than the nonanticipated values and that the long-run effects are also higher than the short-run effects.