中美木质林产品产业内贸易的实证研究——基于1992—2009年的进出口贸易数据

采用UNcomtrade数据库的中美木质林产品贸易数据,利用G-L指数、G-L修正指数、Aquino指数、Brülhart边际产业内贸易指数及Thom&McDowell水平型和垂直型产业内贸易指数,对1992—2009年中美木质林产品产业内贸易的水平和结构进行实证分析。结果表明:中美木质林产品产业内贸易水平总体较低,贸易方式仍以产业间贸易为主;中美木质林产品贸易的增长由产业间贸易和产业内贸易共同引发;产业内贸易方式以垂直型产业内贸易为主。     

Integration effects in the EEC: An attempt at quantification in a general equilibrium framework

This paper presents an attempt at quantitatively examining integration effects in the EEC within a general equilibrium framework. The methodology is based on multinational input-output analysis, where the national interindustry structures of the EEC-countries are linked together via gravitational trade flows. The analysis of trade effects is of the ex post type: Hypothetical trade flows of the customs union's anti-monde are calculated for the years 1965 and 1970 on the assumption that the structural relationships observed in 1959 remained unchanged, and comparison is made with actual trade flows. The results indicate substantial trade creation. There is little trade diversion, and external trade creation, where it occurred, is generally only a small fraction of internal trade creation. Substantial trade creation occurred in Italy, France, and Germany; trade diversion appeared in the Benelux countries. Sectors with high trade creation were agriculture and manufacturing industries, while trade diversion was concentrated in fuels and mining. The results conform with ex ante expectatations based on estimates of pre-union trade resistance.     

Do liberal trade policies promote trade openness?

Although trade liberalization and trade openness are assumed to be strongly associated with each other and often used interchangeably, the empirical evidence has not been forthcoming. This article is an attempt to fill this gap. By investigating the link between trade openness and trade restrictions, it argues that while a negative link between various types of trade restrictions and trade openness is evident, the relationship is weak, statistically not always significant and there is no clear evidence that the removal of trade restrictions (trade‐liberalization) invariably leads to improved trade openness.     

世界高技术产品贸易格局及中国的贸易地位分析

为了解世界各国高技术产品贸易的真实地位,推动中国高技术产品贸易发展,文章基于2000-2016年82个高技术产品主要贸易国家的双边贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法分析世界高技术产品贸易网络特征及中国的贸易地位。研究发现,中心度指数体现了包括中国在内的48个国家和地区拥有密切的贸易往来关系;点强度指数体现了贸易强度排名靠前的国家相对稳定,各国差距不断缩小;结构洞指数体现了各国间贸易关系的多元性即网络异质性不断变化。中国虽然具有较密切的贸易关系和较高的贸易强度,但是其贸易网络分布较为集中,网络异质性依然有待提高。为应对贸易摩擦,提高高技术产品贸易地位,中国应注重优化贸易结构、加强自主创新能力以及创新合作水平,从而降低贸易风险、提高产品质量和优化贸易环境。     

中国服务贸易发展的现状、制约因素及对策研究

中国服务贸易发展总量增长、逆差扩大、结构性失衡突出、总体竞争力偏低,服务贸易开放程度较低、管理体制不完善、法律法规不健全、服务贸易壁垒盛行和专业人才匮乏等是制约中国服务贸易发展的主要因素。为此中国服务贸易发展对策应包括：改善服务贸易发展的基础环境,构建开放的服务贸易发展战略,完善服务贸易的管理体制,加强服务贸易立法,积极应对服务贸易壁垒和加快服务贸易人才培养等。     

中国对非贸易时空分异研究

在对大量中国对非贸易数据资料的统计、整理的基础上,分析了中国对非贸易在时间序列上的变动特点,采用贸易地域多元化指数和均衡度指数计算模型。分析探讨了中国对非贸易在空间序列上的差异,并对中非贸易的前景进行了展望。分析结果表明：中国对非贸易水平有了很大提高,贸易额大幅增加,但其所占中国对外贸易的比例一直不高;中国对非贸易区域分布不平衡,但贸易分布不断向均衡方向发展,贸易市场正在逐步多元化。     

数字贸易如何影响贸易高质量发展——基于贸易全要素生产率视角的经验证据

贸易高质量发展是高效优质利用国内国际两种市场和资源的关键抓手,能够有力推动双循环新发展格局及经济高质量发展。基于2010—2020年中国省际数据,实证考察了数字贸易对贸易高质量发展的影响及相关作用机制。研究发现,一是数字贸易能够有效促进贸易高质量发展,且这种影响受到市场开放度的调节;此外,从数字贸易各维度看,其对贸易高质量发展的影响存在异质性。二是数字贸易能够通过产业结构和物流业升级对贸易高质量发展产生推动作用。三是空间回归表明某一地区数字贸易发展会对周边地区产生负向溢出效应。进一步的拓展性分析发现,在东部、中部地区数字贸易能够有效推动贸易高质量发展,对西部地区虽有促进作用,但并不明显;数字贸易各维度中,数字技术在中部地区对贸易高质量发展具有显著促进作用,数字产业化贸易在东部、中部地区对贸易高质量发展具有显著促进作用。研究有助于理清数字贸易和贸易高质量发展之间的逻辑关系及作用机制,为我国通过发展数字贸易进而推动贸易高质量发展提供了理论和经验支撑,为政策决策提供建议。     

中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本的测度与决定因素——基于改进引力模型的应用

对中国双边服务贸易成本的测度和对其决定因素的探寻可以更好地为服务贸易流动提供解释,对中国服务贸易开放有重要的政策启示。笔者基于改进的引力模型,测度了1999年～2007年间中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本,并利用面板数据对其进行分解,以此寻求影响中国对外服务贸易成本的因素。结果表明:中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本总体呈下降趋势,并且在加入WTO后有加速的迹象;空间距离与服务贸易壁垒是双边服务贸易成本存在的主因,与贸易国的人均收入之差及共同的海陆边界有助于降低双边服务贸易成本,共同的贸易集团对于两国服务贸易成本的影响并不明显。     

区域旅游服务贸易竞争力研究——以云南省为例

自上世纪八十年代至今,全球服务贸易的总体规模已经增长了6-7倍,是当今国际贸易发展最为迅速的领域.中国的经常项目贸易额虽然长年保持顺差,但服务贸易却一直处于逆差之中.旅游服务贸易是我国服务贸易的创汇贸易之一,占我国服务贸易出口总额的40％左右,可见,旅游服务贸易在我国服务贸易中有着举足轻重的作用.云南省是我国旅游资源大省,也是旅游服务贸易出口的重要地区,所以研究云南省的旅游服务贸易的竞争力问题具有重要的意义.文章首先对云南省旅游服务贸易发展情况作以简单的阐述,并把云南省旅游服务贸易竞争力同上海、广东、北京进行了比较分析,进一步对影响因素做出了定量的计算,最后对提高云南省的旅游服务贸易竞争力提出了一定的对策建议.     

国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的影响——来自企业层面的微观证据

当前,以贸易保护主义为主要特征的"逆全球化"思潮涌现,国外的贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口增长构成严重的威胁.那么,这些贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口到底产生了怎样的影响?其内在机制是什么?文章采用2009?2011年GTA数据库与中国海关统计数据库的合并数据,从企业这一微观层面定量识别国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的实际影响.研究发现:(1)国外贸易保护措施的实施显著地降低了受影响企业的出口规模,贸易保护措施的数量每增加1次,受影响企业的出口将下降17%左右;贸易保护强度每增加1个单位,受影响企业的出口将下降52%左右.(2)从影响机制看,国外贸易保护措施对制造业出口的抑制效应是通过降低出口的数量和质量来实现的.(3)贸易融资对制造业出口的边际影响最大,而贸易救济措施是对制造业出口整体影响最大的贸易保护措施.(4)国外贸易保护措施对外资企业、同质产品以及中间品出口的抑制作用更明显.文章的研究结论既为理解贸易保护主义的危害提供了经验证据,也为中国在持续推动对外开放背景下如何应对贸易保护壁垒提供了决策依据.     

Who produces for whom in the world economy?

Abstract For two decades, the share of trade in inputs, also called vertical trade, has been dramatically increasing. In reallocating trade flows to their original input‐producing industries and countries, this paper suggests a new measure of international trade: ‘value‐added trade’ and makes it possible to answer the question ‘who produces for whom?’ In 2004, 27% of international trade was vertical trade. The industrial and geographic patterns of value‐added trade are very different from those of standard trade. Value‐added trade is relatively less important in regional trade but the difference is not more important for Asia than for America.     

分工演进对贸易政策的影响分析——基于交易成本的考虑

贸易政策同贸易理论是紧密联系在一起的.引入交易成本来分析分工演进对贸易政策的影响,不考虑交易成本条件下,贸易自由对于分工演进的国家是有利的;考虑交易成本条件下,随着分工演进,国家之间更加倾向于贸易谈判,最终结果为贸易自由化.但是由于各国交易效率不同,交易效率高的国家在贸易中获得的利益更多,而交易效率低的就会实行更多贸易保护.因此,我国需要降低交易成本,加强分工演进的速度,处理好国际之间的贸易摩擦.     

西北地区贸易联系与空间流向分析

西部大开发以来,西北各省区对外贸易和省(区)际贸易的绝对量逐步增大,对内和对外开放程度均有所提高。空间上呈现两大特征:一是地区内省(区)际贸易联系较强;二是地区外贸易具有明显的东部沿海指向。对外贸易特别是边境贸易的繁荣是西北各省区国内贸易增长和空间格局变动的重要原因。继续推进西北地区在东、西两个方向上的流通通道建设,同时加强地区内各省区之间的产业关联建设,是促进对外贸易和省(区)际贸易同步发展的关键。     

A Model of Trade Liberalization in Services*

This paper develops an intra‐industry service trade model taking into account important features of services. We find that service trade liberalization between identical economies is welfare enhancing when the pre‐trade domestic market liberalization is limited. This holds regardless of the degree of trade liberalization and of the mode of supply. However, if the pre‐trade environment is characterized by a free‐entry equilibrium, then service trade liberalization is not necessarily welfare improving. It is welfare enhancing if the trade liberalization is full and the mode of supply is cross‐border. The gain from trade in our model comes from the improvement in service quality—better matching between consumers’ ideal varieties and firms’ product specificity. The implications for the mode of supply in service trade are also explored.     

Trade Liberalization and the Degree of Competition in International Duopoly

This paper analyzes how a reduction in trade costs influences the possibility for firms to engage in international cartels, and hence how trade liberalization affects the degree of competition. We consider a particular intra‐industry trade model amended to allow for firms producing differentiated products. Our main finding is that trade liberalization may have an anti‐competitive effect. We find that there is no unique relation between a reduction in trade costs and the degree of competition. When products are differentiated, a lowering of trade costs is pro‐competitive if trade costs are initially high, but anti‐competitive if trade costs initially are low. Hence, trade policy is not necessarily a substitute for competition policy.     

外贸地域结构优化与经济增长关系研究——以福建省为例

随着中国对外贸易的稳步发展,福建省的外贸经济支撑与带动作用不断凸显,已成为国内领先的外贸大省。现有研究福建省对外贸易的成果多侧重于外贸整体态势、产业提升、外贸产品结构及外贸关系等方面,从国家（或地区）角度分析,外贸地域结构对经济增长的促进作用,更能促进外贸结构的优化。     

泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易实证分析

本文从泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易发展的现状入手，通过使用双边贸易结合度、贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易指数等进行实证分析论证，从而得出双边贸易正由从基于外生比较优势的产业间贸易走向基于内生比较优势的产业内贸易形成互补性分工的结论，不断扩大双边贸易，寻求双方新的贸易增长点。     

海峡两岸产业内贸易动态变化特征分析

选用Aquino指数,定量地分析了海峡两岸产业内贸易在二者贸易份额中的比重。在此基础上,进一步将产业内贸易细分为垂直型和水平型两种形式,选取2001—2008年的相关数据,运用GMH法对两岸的产业内贸易结构特征进行全面的实证分析。结果发现:两岸贸易产业内贸易水平还比较低,但产业内贸易增长迅速,尤其在中高技术层面产品上产业内贸易逐步增强;两岸产业内贸易以垂直型为主,但最近几年,水平型所占比重增长较快,有垂直型向水平型发展的趋势;两岸产业内贸易在区域结构上也呈现出动态演进的特征。     

Trade volume and economic growth in the MENA region: Goods or services?

This paper explores the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of goods and service trade on the economic performance of MENA countries for the period 1960–2011. While the MENA region has been widely neglected in the trade and growth literature, this paper offers a decomposition of MENA GDP growth in order to disentangle the contributions of both service and goods trade. The results show a positive association between real GDP and both service and goods trade. The interaction term between trade in goods and trade in services is negative, suggesting that as goods trade increases, the marginal effect of service trade on real GDP decreases. However, the overall effect of service trade on real GDP is positive. The decomposition of GDP growth reveals a greater impact of goods trade, although service trade is important, and for most countries greater than the effect of tertiary enrolment.     

中国服务贸易竞争力的国际比较研究

服务贸易是当前国际贸易中发展最为迅速的领域,已成为我国经济新的增长点.通过服务贸易的国际横向比较,服务贸易TC指数大部分长期为负值,且各行业之间TC指数差异大,我国服务贸易竞争力水平远远落后于发达国家.从制约因素分析来看,提升我国服务贸易的国际竞争力,必须重视服务贸易营销,寻求国内市场支持,建立服务贸易扶持政策.