Tying in two-sided markets with heterogeneous advertising revenues and negative pricing

We offer a theory of anticompetitive tying in two-sided markets when below-cost or negative pricing is possible. With the coexistence of two consumer groups (one regarding tying and tied goods as complementary and the other as independent), a tying-good monopolist may face difficulties in extracting rent under separate sales and wish to use tying to directly capture the large advertising revenue created in the complementary segment. We uncover two distinct mechanisms by which tying raises monopoly profits but reduces social welfare. Our theory of tying can be applied to real-world antitrust law enforcement, such as the Google Android case.     

Vertical syndication-proof competitive prices in multilateral assignment markets

We consider a market comprising a number of perfectly complementary and homogeneous commodities. We concentrate on the incentives for firms producing these commodities to merge and form a vertical syndicate. The main result establishes that the nucleolus of the associated market game corresponds to the unique vector of prices with the following properties: (i) they are vertical syndication-proof, (ii) they are competitive, (iii) they yield the average of the buyers- and the sellers-optimal allocations in bilateral markets, and (iv) they depend on the traders’ bargaining power but not on their identity. The proof uses an isomorphism between our class of market games and the entire class of bankruptcy games.     

Bounds for the utility-indifference prices of non-traded assets in incomplete markets

Abstract We consider a special class of financial models with both traded and non-traded assets and show that the utility indifference (bid) price of a contingent claim on a non-traded asset is bounded above by the expectation under the minimal martingale measure. This bound also represents the marginal bid price for the claim. The key conclusion is that the bound and the marginal bid price are independent of both the utility function and initial wealth of the agent. Thus all utility maximising agents charge the same marginal price for the claim. This conclusion is in some sense the opposite conclusion to that of Hubalek and Schachermayer (2001), who show that any price is consistent with some equivalent martingale measure. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 91B16, 60J70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G13     

Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices

In this article we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price; hence, we analyze bivariate data. We first estimate the mean of the two time series, and then in a second step we estimate the residuals. The mean equation is estimated by ordinary least squares and the elastic net, and the residuals are estimated by maximum likelihood. Our contribution is to include a bivariate jump component in a mean reverting jump diffusion model in the residuals. The models’ forecasts are evaluated with use of four different criteria, including the energy score to measure whether the correlation structure between the time series is properly included. It is observed that the models with bivariate jumps provide better results with the energy score, which means that it is important to consider this structure to properly forecast correlated time series.     

The asymmetric effect of crude oil prices on stock prices in major international financial markets

The aim of this paper is to explore the potential asymmetric impacts of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices on stock prices in six major international financial markets which include China, Hong Kong, America, Japan, Britain, and Germany. We test for these asymmetric effects on 8 major international financial markets indices over the 2007M01–2020M03 periods. Our independent measures include the prices of Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. We use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin et al. (2014), which can capture both short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variables. This research finds that positive and negative fluctuations of oil price have asymmetric effects on stock price index in four financial markets, but the performance of the asymmetry is different. Specifically, the impacts of volatility in oil prices on two indices of Chinese stock prices are different, and the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock price indices in China and other financial markets are significantly different.     

Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art

This paper provides a non-systematic review of the progress of forecasting in social settings. It is aimed at someone outside the field of forecasting who wants to understand and appreciate the results of the M4 Competition, and forms a survey paper regarding the state of the art of this discipline. It discusses the recorded improvements in forecast accuracy over time, the need to capture forecast uncertainty, and things that can go wrong with predictions. Subsequently, the review classifies the knowledge achieved over recent years into (i) what we know, (ii) what we are not sure about, and (iii) what we don’t knowIn the first two areas, we explore the difference between explanation and prediction, the existence of an optimal model, the performance of machine learning methods on time series forecasting tasks, the difficulties of predicting non-stable environments, the performance of judgment, and the value added by exogenous variables. The article concludes with the importance of (thin and) fat tails, the challenges and advances in causal inference, and the role of luck.     

Excess demand function around critical prices in incomplete markets

We show that the aggregate excess demand function in an economy with incomplete real asset markets can be characterized by Walras’ law, homogeneity, and continuity around critical prices that cause one-dimensional drop of the dimension of the budget set.     

Equilibrium and arbitrage in incomplete asset markets with fixed prices

At arbitrary prices of commodities and assets, fix-price equilibria exist under weak assumptions: endowments need not satisfy an interiority condition, utility functions need only satisfy a very weak monotonicity requirement, and the asset return matrix allows for redundant assets. Prices of assets may permit arbitrage. At equilibrium, though restricted through endogenously determined trading constraints, arbitrage possibilities may persist; in an example, an individual holds an arbitrage portfolio.     

On the uniqueness of optimal prices set by monopolistic sellers

This paper considers price determination by monopolistic sellers who know the distribution of valuations among the potential buyers. We derive a novel condition under which the optimal price set by the monopolist is unique. In many settings, this condition is easy to interpret, and it is valid for a very wide range of distributions of valuations. The results carry over to the optimal minimum price in independent private value auctions. In addition, they can be fruitfully applied in the analysis of quantity discount price policies.     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for Korea and Mexico. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify that the long-run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity. This paper benefited from the constructive suggestions of an anonymous referee. The remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility. Financial support from the Dr. Robert B. Pamplin, Jr., School of Business Administration, University of Portland, is greatly appreciated.     

Comovements and asymmetric tail dependence in state housing prices in the USA: A nonparametric approach

We reexamine the methods used in estimating comovements among US regional home prices and find that there are insufficient moments to ensure a normal limit necessary for employing the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator. Hence we propose applying the self‐weighted quasi‐maximum exponential likelihood estimator and a bootstrap method to test and account for the asymmetry of comovements as well as different magnitudes across state pairs. Our results reveal interstate asymmetric tail dependence based on observed house price indices rather than residuals from fitting autoregressive–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (AR‐GARCH) models.     

The impact of reserve prices on the perceived bias of expert appraisals of fine art

We examine whether expert appraisals provided to bidders before major art auctions are unbiased indicators of value. Despite a strong grounding in theory, this aspect of optimal auction design has been frequently challenged in previous empirical research, particularly in the market for fine art. We adopt a valuation benchmark that incorporates sellers' reserve prices as well as high bids, and recognize censoring of works that fail to make reserve. Although the auction houses never divulge reserve prices, we exploit the fact that they can be observed indirectly via their impact on buy‐in rates. Using the set of French Impressionist paintings brought to auction from 1985 to 2001, we estimate the distribution of reserve prices, establish their link to a proper valuation benchmark, and isolate the selection bias due to bought‐in works on the perceived market value of fine art works. After controlling for the impact of reserve prices, and considering all works brought to auction, we find no evidence of bias in the experts' pre‐sale estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem

This paper investigates whether a regime switching model of stochastic lumber prices is better for the analysis of optimal harvesting problems in forestry than a more traditional single regime model. Prices of lumber derivatives are used to calibrate a regime switching model, with each of two regimes characterized by a different mean reverting process. A single regime, mean reverting process is also calibrated. The value of a representative stand of trees and optimal harvesting prices are determined by specifying a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Variational Inequality, which is solved for both pricing models using a implicit finite difference approach. The regime switching model is found to more closely match the behavior of futures prices than the single regime model. In addition, analysis of a tree harvesting problem indicates significant differences in terms of land value and optimal harvest thresholds between the regime switching and single regime models.     

The systems approach to school administration: Some perceptions on the state of the art in 1967

Some of the salient administrative activities consistent with systems are clear delineation of objectives; recognition of the dynamic nature of goals and priorities; generation of alternative means for allocating resources; generation of models of the system under study; utilization of quantitatively oriented tools in analysis; and in decision making, and employment of interdisciplinary teams of specialists in problem analysis. Hard data on the implementation of these systems oriented approaches in education are not available as yet.

School administrators in late 1967 were on the threshold of awareness of concepts, vehicles, and procedures related to systems. They have not as yet perceived systems as an approach to better define, comprehend, or resolve perplexing educational issues or operational problems.

Those aspects of school administration most amenable to operations analysis such as transportation, school plant planning and construction, inventory control or food services are less likely to be classified as crucial problems of administrators. The more significant long-range policy problems in instruction, race relations, adapting the institution to change, teacher militancy, or amelioration of social injustices have been considered by too many to be outside the range of quantitative analysis.

Not everyone talking about systems uses the same data base. The systems approach is more likely to flourish where certain conditions prevail. Some pressing improvements in education are needed to create readiness and use of systems.     

Data envelopment analysis: The evolution of the state of the art (1978–1995)

The purpose of this paper is to briefly trace the evolution of DEA from the initial publication by Charnes et al. (1978b) to the current state of the art (SOA). The state of development of DEA is characterized at four points in time to provide a perspective in both directions—past and future. An evolution map is provided which illustrates DEA growth during the 17-year period, the timing of the major events, and the interconnections and influences between topics. An extensive DEA bibliography is provided.     

Long-range hospital capital requirements planning: the state of the art, a proposal for change.

A Hospital Capital Requirements Planning System is proposed to channel competition through the use of a regional planning model. This model would help to reduce the social deadweight loss arising from competition-induced uncertainty. The system would increase the internal long-range planning capacity of hospitals and improve the quality of the applications presented for Certificate of Need review. Both health systems planners and investment bankers should have better information with which to evaluate hospital capital investment proposals.     

Social dialogues—the state of the art a decade after Maastricht

The article asks whether social dialogues, according the procedures of the Social Protocol and the Amsterdam Treaty, have proved to be valuable instruments able to make major contributions to the development of social integration. More recent developments at the inter‐professional as well as at the sectoral level are evaluated. Furthermore, major trajectories for likely future trends at both levels are highlighted. The final part discusses the problem of whether social dialogues will profit from the introduction of new modes of governance, especially the more recently preferred open method of co‐ordination.     

2007年第一季度 城市地价动态监测报告

根据中国城市地价动态监测系统对全国重点地区和主要城市监测结果的分析，2007年第一季度我国主要城市地价状况如下——