Financial-market effects of Federal Government budget deficits

Conclusion This paper finds that, for the 30-year period 1955–1984, the federal government budget deficit in the United States had a positive and significant effect on the longer-term nominal interest rate. This finding is at odds with most of the existing literature, which finds federal budget deficits to have no measurable impact upon interest rates in the United States [cf. Evans, 1985; 1987; Hoelscher, 1983; Makin, 1983; Motley, 1983; McMillin, 1986; and Mascaro and Meltzer, 1983]. The difference between the findings here and the findings in these other studies can be traced at least in part to the way in which we specify the deficit variable. That is, we distinguish between thestructural deficit, which approximates theexogenous component of the total deficit, and thecyclical deficit, which represents theendogenous component of the total deficit. By contrast, these other related studies measure the deficit in more aggregated ways, which combine the cyclical deficit with the structural deficit into one variable.     

Financing budget deficits in the Netherlands

Summary In The Netherlands public debt management is in the hands of the budgetary policy-maker, whose recourse to the capital market can exceed or fall short of the total borrowing requirement in order to absorb or create liquidity. The conduct of that policy since the early 1960's is analyzed in this paper, emphasizing the importance of medium-term control over the public finances as a prerequisite for the ability of debt management to make a flexible contribution to monetary policy. During the 1960's this condition was satisfied and debt management followed a stable countercyclical pattern which, however, was abandoned after the early 1970's as the public finances swung into substantial disequilibrium.The author thanks J. Boughton, L. Bovenberg, D. Hendry, P. Masson, J. Muellbauer, and the referees for comments on earlier versions. However, the views expressed are his alone and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund.     

Structural determinants of government budget deficits in developing countries

The purpose of this study is to examine the possibility that certain structural factors make some developing countries more likely to incur government budget deficits than others. Empirical evidence is provided to support the hypotheses that developing countries are likely to have larger government budget deficits the lower their level of economic development, the greater the degree of government participation in the economy, and the less control exercised over government expenditures. Less convincing support is given for the hypothesis that revenue instability contributes to government budget deficits. An unexpected result of the study is that growth of government revenues is positively related to budget deficits, which leads the author to consider the possibility of a ‘Please effect’.     

Government budget deficits,nominal andex ante real long-term interest rates in the U.K., 1960:1–1990:2

This paper explores the impact of government budget deficits on the U.K. nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates over the period from 1960:1 to 1990:2 utilizing an open and closed economy IS-LM model. An open economy IS-LM model indicates that nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates are affected by the expected rate of inflation, the real money stock, the real government budget deficit, the real government spending, and the real balance of trade.The evidence presented suggests that increases in the U.K. budget deficits do contribute significantly to increases in nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates. This implies that rising nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates, as a result of high government budget deficits, would crowd out private investment and deter capital formation and long-term economic growth.     

Have large budget deficits caused increasing trade deficits? Evidence from a developing country

This paper investigates the relationship between budget and trade deficits on the basis of previous empirical work. Within the framework of cointegration analysis, error-correction modeling and Granger causality, the paper evaluates the validity of the Keynesian proposition (conventional view) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The error-correction modeling approach supports the Keynesian proposition in the short and long run. The empirical evidence reveals one-way causality from budget deficit to trade deficit.     

Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints

This paper re-examines whether the huge external deficits in the United States for the last few decades are sustainable by using time series methods. Two distinct analytical differences from earlier works are considered. First, the private sector and government are separated to construct the current account identities used in this paper. Second, both the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainability of external deficits are explicitly considered. Taking these modifications into consideration, the empirical results of this study do not necessarily reject the hypothesis that external deficits in the US are sustainable.     

The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government

In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989-1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate, exchange rate, money supply behavior, as well as electoral influences. The empirical evidence is consistent with the view that speeches by the Bundesbank president dealing with inflation and economic policy are a positive source of conflict in a probabilistic sense. Conflict was not a constant but flared up at times of economic stress and could be exacerbated by the “talking” of Bundesbank officials.     

卓炯市场导向改革思路与实践检验的再认识再评价

1979年春卓炯率先提出市场导向的改革思路,主张把产品经济体制改革成市场经济体制,经济体制改革是一个系统工程,包括把计划价格改革成市场价格,资源配置机制的行政机制改革为市场机制,重塑微观经济基础。这是卓炯对改革作出的重大理论贡献。实践证明,卓炯提出的市场导向的改革思路是完全正确的,但是也存在着一些难点。这些难点包括适应市场经济的公有制的实现形式、私营个体经济在市场经济中的地位、个人在市场经济中的主体地位,需要根据改革实践进行充实和丰富。     

市场经济体制下政府治理模式的创新

一、政府角色变迁的经济学渊源 在市场经济发展的历程中，政府的地位与角色一直是学者们研究的重点所在。     

Fiscal flows in Europe: The redistributive effects of the EU budget

Fiscal Flows in Europe: The Redistributive Effects of the EU Budget. — In this paper we analyze the redistributive effects of the EU budget among European countries, exploring the relationship between income and fiscal flows, both in per capita terms. Using a new data set on EU budgets from 1986 to 1998, we find that the EU budget has a redistributive effect, though only on its expenditure side. The most redistributive expenditure category is the Regional Fund, followed by the Social Fund and by the guarantee section of the EAGGF. All of them have become increasingly redistributive in time. Total budgetary revenues show only proportionality with income. As regards the net financial balance, three groups of countries are identified, given the treatment they get from the EU budget that cannot be explained by their per capita income levels.     

基于实验方法的资本市场泡沫研究综述

采用经济学实验研究方法研究资本市场的泡沫问题，可以解决一些传统实证方法所无法解决的问题。实验研究者通过人为地控制并逐个改变因素．达到对影响泡沫的因素进行分离研究的目的，同时通过重复实验来检验理论的有效性。本文介绍了资本市场泡沫实验的基本设计框架．并从七个方面对已有的实验研究成果进行总结。