Estimation of expected return: CAPM vs. Fama and French

Most practitioners favour a one-factor model (CAPM) when estimating expected return for an individual stock. For estimation of portfolio returns, academics recommend the Fama and French three-factor model. The main objective of this paper is to compare the performance of these two models for individual stocks. First, estimates for individual stock returns based on CAPM are obtained using different time frames, data frequencies, and indexes. It is found that 5 years of monthly data and an equal-weighted index, as opposed to the commonly recommended value-weighted index, provide the best estimate. However, performance of the model is very poor; it explains on average 3% of differences in returns. Then, estimates for individual stock returns are obtained based on the Fama and French model using 5 years of monthly data. This model, however, does not do much better; independent of the index used, it explains on average 5% of differences in returns. These results therefore bring into question the use of either model for estimation of individual expected stock returns.     

THE ECONOMIC EXPOSURE OF U.S. MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

In this paper we find that the exchange rate exposure of individual firms increases with the return horizon. Also, the cross-sectional differences in the magnitude of exposure of individual firms are significantly related to firm size but not to the relative portion of foreign sales to total sales. The empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hedging activities exhibit economies of scale, and, consequently, the magnitude of economic exposure is less for larger firms than for smaller firms.     

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF BETA STABILITY: PORTFOLIOS VS. INDIVIDUAL SECURITIES

The concept that portfolio betas are more stable than betas for individual securities has become the 'conventional wisdom' in finance; statements to this effect may be found in many popular finance textbooks. The objective of this paper is to challenge the conventional wisdom. A random sample of individual stock returns and portfolio returns is used to compare the empirical distribution of beta shifts for individual firms and portfolios. The number of statistically significant changes in beta are no greater for individual securities than for portfolios.     

Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors

Guided by the Gervais and Odean (2001) overconfident trading hypothesis, we comprehensively investigate the trading behavior of individual vs. institutional investors in Taiwan in an attempt to identify who is the more overconfident trader. Conditional on the various states of the market, on market volatility, and on the risk level of the securities they trade, we find that both individual and institutional investors trade more aggressively following market gains in bull markets, in up-market states, in up-momentum market states, and in low-volatility market states and that only individual investors trade more in riskier securities following market gains. More importantly, we find that individual investors trade more aggressively following market gains in the three conditional states of the market and in high-volatility market states than institutional investors. Also, individual investors trade more in relatively riskier securities following gains than institutional investors. These findings provide evidence that individual investors are more overconfident traders than institutional investors.     

COBRA notice--bankruptcy--stay. Buchanan v. Golden Casting Corporation Hourly Health Benefit Plan

In an absence of special circumstances, the automatic stay that protects an employer from suit while its bankruptcy is pending does not apply to an action brought against its employee welfare benefit plan under ERISA because the plan, not the employer, is the proper entity to sue for benefits. Similarly, the employer's automatic stay does not apply to the individual fiduciary sued for breach of fiduciary duty in administering the plan. The bankrupt employer has no property interest in either the plan assets or the assets of the individual fiduciary and, therefore, the stay does not protect them from suit.     

An annual money demand and supply model for the U.S.: 1924–1940/1949–1966

This paper describes the monetary sector in the Hickman-Ceen medium-range forecasting model, which is estimated on annual data from 1924 to 1966. A characterization of the individual bank as a profit maximizing firm is used to derive a ‘portfolio-balance’ model of the money supply mechanism. The estimation results: suggest that, for the sample period at least, M2 is the appropriate definition of money; corroborate earlier findings that there is no evidence of a so-called ‘low-level liquidity trap’ in the Thirties; confirm the reliability of earlier annual- data estimates of the demand for money; and provide indirect evidence that non-monetary disturbances to macroeconomic equilibrium were relatively unimportant during the sample period.     

Personality traits,basic individual values and GMO risk perception of twitter users

Abstract

The present study investigates how the most foundational factors to individual differences – personality traits and personal values – affect the perceived safety of genetic modification and their relative importance. Publicly available communication data from 522 Twitter accounts discussing genetically modified foods and their safety was processed in two steps. First, accounts were categorized by the researchers as viewing GM foods as either safe or not safe. Second, using the IBM Watson platform, the Twitter communication data were subjected to lexical analysis to assign scores according to the Five Factor Model for personality traits and Schwartz’s basic individual values to the individual accounts. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine how perceived GM food safety is linked to personality traits and individual values. Although both traits and values significantly contribute to explaining GM attitudes, personality traits strongly moderate the effect of individual values on risk perception.     

Closed-end country funds and U.S. market sentiment

Closed-end country funds can trade at large premiums and discountsfrom their foreign asset values (NAVs). Investigating this anomaly,we find that individual fund premiums move together, primarilybecause of the comovement of their stock prices with the U.S.market. Moreover, an index of country fund premiums differentiatessize-ranked U.S. portfolio returns and forecasts country fundstock returns. These findings suggest that international equityprices are affected by local risk. In particular, we show thatcountry fund premium movements reflect a U.S.-specific risk,which may be interpreted as U.S. market sentiment.     

The usefulness to individual and institutional investors of annual earnings announcements and SEC filings by non-U.S. companies

This study examines the information contained in annual earnings announcements and SEC filings by non-U.S. and non-Canadian companies listed on either the New York or American Stock Exchange. We extend previous research in this area by employing intraday trading data, which allows us to assess the relative informativeness of the earnings announcements and SEC filings across different classes of investors. In addition, analyzing trading data is advantageous in that abnormal trading volume on a U.S. exchange can reasonably be attributed to the usefulness of the information to U.S. traders. The results suggest that annual earnings announcements of non-U.S. companies provide information to both institutional and individual investors, as indicated by the abnormal trading activity surrounding this event, but the value of the information is greater and the time required to process the information is less for institutional investors. With respect to the SEC annual filings, abnormal trading activity was not detected surrounding the filing dates for the entire sample period (1983–1992) for either institutional or individual investors. We do, however, document some evidence that the information content of the 20-F has increased in post-1988 filings, which corresponds with a dramatic rise in the market value of non-U.S. equity securities listed in the U.S. market.     

Taxing audit markets and reputation: An examination of the U.S. tax shelter controversy

From 2002 to 2007, the nation's largest CPA firms faced allegations of illegal activity related to the sale of tax shelters: EY, KPMG and PwC paid fines; KPMG was investigated by a federal grand jury; and EY faced a criminal inquiry. These shelter events occurred shortly after the 2002 collapse of Arthur Andersen, when policy makers were concerned about audit market concentration. This is the first paper to provide a chronological summary of how the tax shelter controversy started and ended. We investigate the stock market reaction to tax shelter news developments between 2003 and 2005 to make inferences about the market's view of audit competition and CPA firm reputation. Our results are consistent with market concern over large audit firm concentration, evidenced by large negative returns for clients of all audit providers upon the KPMG grand jury investigation announcement. We also find that tax shelter activities impact both the reputation of the accounting profession and the individual CPA firms marketing tax shelter products.     

An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market

This study examines the effect of rational and irrational components of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment on Istanbul Stock Market (ISE) return and volatility. The results show that there is a significant spillover effect of U.S. investor sentiment on stock return and volatility of ISE. A breakdown of sentiment by the type of investor shows that the impact of institutional sentiment is greater than that of individual sentiment. A breakdown of sentiment by rationality shows that the effect of rational sentiment on ISE return is faster though not necessarily greater than that of irrational sentiment. The conclusion from these results is that the effect of U.S. investor sentiment is systemic and cannot be diversified away. U.S. investor sentiment, therefore, constitutes a priced risk factor and must be accounted for accordingly in international asset pricing models. The findings also provide some evidence of a negative relationship between U.S. investor sentiment and ISE return volatility.     

Tax-Induced Trading and the Identity of the Marginal Investor: Evidence from Sweden

Abstract

Changes in the Swedish tax code during the 1990s were structured in a way that offers an opportunity to test whether ex-dividend prices were determined by the taxation of domestic individual investors. The results presented in this paper indicate that ex-dividend prices were not influenced by the relatively large tax changes for domestic individual investors. In addition, there was no evidence that the taxation of domestic individual investors influenced ex-dividend prices for any specific dividend yield group.     

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.     

Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe

We study the nature of systemic sovereign credit risk using CDS spreads for the U.S. Treasury, individual U.S. states, and major Eurozone countries. Using a multifactor affine framework that allows for both systemic and sovereign-specific credit shocks, we find that there is much less systemic risk among U.S. sovereigns than among Eurozone sovereigns. We find that both U.S. and Eurozone systemic sovereign risk are strongly related to financial market variables. These results provide strong support for the view that systemic sovereign risk has its roots in financial markets rather than in macroeconomic fundamentals.     

Social Security disability insurance benefits-eligibility. Barnhart, Commissioner of Social Security v. Walton

SSA's interpretation of the Social Security Act and its regulation requiring that eligibility for benefits requires that an applicant be both impaired and unable to engage in substantial gainful activity (work) for at least 12 months was permitted by the act and the regulation was lawful. SSA was entitled to the benefit of hindsight, and even though an individual might have been awarded benefits under the act if the decision were made before the end of 12 months because the impairment and inability to work could be expected to last at least 12 months, it could deny benefits when it makes its decision after 12 months from the onset of the impairment and knows the applicant was able to work after 11 months.     

U.S. banks’ IPOs and political money contributions

This study analyses the effect of political money contributions on U.S. banks’ IPOs. We employ unbalanced panel data of 367 U.S. banks’ IPOs for the period January 1998 to December 2019. Our findings reveal that investors perceive Political Money Contributions (PMC) by U.S. banks as a proxy for political reach and connectedness. We document an inverse relationship between total PMC and the level of underpricing, which implies that both lobbying and PAC expenditure pay off on issue day as donors incur less underpricing. Initial returns decrease with PAC contributions to House of Representatives candidates, whereas the returns relate to the partisan identity of the candidates receiving PAC contributions. We document that those individual contributions by directors bring significant benefits to the IPO banks. Finally, we show that the political contributions of board members, particularly those of CEOs and founders, are associated with better returns in the long term.     

An exploratory study on the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. State boards of accountancy

In the United States (U.S.) individual state boards of accountancy govern the accounting profession within each state. When COVID-19 struck the U.S., state boards worked to maintain normal operations. This study examines how COVID-19 affected the regulatory and oversight activities of the state boards of accountancy and the ways in which boards adapted to the pandemic. We interview executive directors from 21 state boards to determine the pandemic’s impact on board operations and continuing professional education requirements. We also evaluate whether state boards implemented guidance from parties such as the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA), and the resources boards had available to navigate the pandemic. Finally, we examine our analyses and findings through the lens of institutional theory. In doing so, we describe how state boards’ individual reactions to the pandemic resulted in a largely homogenous response, as affected by coercive, mimetic, and normative isomorphic mechanisms.     

Stochastic stable population theory with continuous time. I

Abstract

This paper contains a systematic presentation of time-continuous stable population theory in modern probabilistic dress. The life-time births of an individual are represented by an inhomogeneous Poisson process stopped at death, and an aggregate of such processes on the individual level constitutes the population process. Forward and backward renewal relations are established for the first moments of the main functionals of the process and for their densities. Their asymptotic convergence to a stable form is studied, and the stable age distribution is given some attention. It is a distinguishing feature of the present paper that rigorous proofs are given for results usually set up by intuitive reasoning only.     

Aspekte internationaler Durchdringung des Seeversicherungsgeschäftes im 20. Jahrhundert

The business of marine insurance is characteristically international in scope, with many transactions across national borders, and it is only lightly regulated in a free market. Apparently there is no need to cast doubt on the general importance of foreign business, neither for single competitors in this branch nor for the world-wide market of marine insurance as a whole. Keeping a closer focus on recent history of individual marine insurance markets reveals that selected countries will show an individual character referring to international competition: host market characteristics affect the international marine insurers participation in foreign markets in different ways.     

The parable of the Sadhu. 1983

When does a group have responsibility for the well-being of an individual? And what are the differences between the ethics of the individual and the ethics of the corporation? Those are the questions Bowen McCoy wanted readers to explore in this HBR Classic, first published in September-October 1983. In 1982, McCoy spent several months hiking through Nepal. Midway through the difficult trek, as he and several others were preparing to attain the highest point of their climb, they encountered the body of an Indian holy man, or sadhu. Wearing little clothing and shivering in the bitter cold, he was barely alive. McCoy and the other travelers-who included individuals from Japan, New Zealand, and Switzerland, as well as local Nepali guides and porters-immediately wrapped him in warm clothing and gave him food and drink. A few members of the group broke off to help move the sadhu down toward a village two days' journey away, but they soon left him in order to continue their way up the slope. What happened to the sadhu? In his retrospective commentary, McCoy notes that he never learned the answer to that question. Instead, the sadhu's story only raises more questions. On the Himalayan slope, a collection of individuals was unprepared for a sudden dilemma. They all "did their bit," but the group was not organized enough to take ultimate responsibility for a life. How, asks McCoy in a broader context, do we prepare our organizations and institutions so they will respond appropriately to ethical crises?