Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future

China joined the Paris Agreement, and the global 2°C and 1.5°C warming targets will be supported by China. In order to achieve these targets, China's CO₂ emissions need to be cut deeply by 2050. The present paper presents studies from the integrated policy assessment model for China (IPAC) team about the impact on China's economic development of deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to realize the Paris climate change targets. With the requirement of deep cuts in GHG emissions in China, China's economic development will also be impacted in moving toward a low‐carbon or zero‐carbon emission‐based economy by 2050. This means the Chinese economy needs a strong transition over the next three decades, a relatively short time. All sectors in the economy need to seek ways to reduce GHG emissions, and this could change activities, industry processes and technologies in order to make the deep cuts in GHG emissions happen. This is the meaning of the economic transition toward to a low‐carbon economy. The findings of the present paper include: a significant transition in the energy supply sector; a high rate of electrification in all end‐use sectors; and a technology transition in the transport sector. Transitions will also occur in the traditional industrial sectors, including steel making, cement manufacture, and the chemical sector. The availability of low‐cost renewable energy could change the allocation of industries, which could potentially have a strong impact on regional economic development. Deep cuts in CO₂ emissions in China need not be a burden for economic development, as the IPAC results show there will be a more than 1.5% increase of gross domestic product by 2050 in the deep cut scenario compared with the baseline scenario.     

Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development

There is an urgent need to develop scenarios and roadmaps for a more sustainable future than where business-as-usual is heading. This paper addresses the use of sensitivity analysis for analyzing environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) models in order to develop cost-effective and comprehensive scenario building. Main components of resource use, emission intensity and final demand are extracted from the complete network of interactions contained in the input–output tables of the national accounts. The method is demonstrated using a detailed Finnish EEIO-model (ENVIMAT). Based on the results, only 0.3% of the 23 103 interactions were found to have a significant effect on Finnish greenhouse gas emissions. The same parameters were also relevant for waste generation and land use, but not for gross domestic product. The identified main components were tested by structural decomposition. Actual development of greenhouse gas emissions from 2002 to 2005 was compared to that predicted by updating only the identified components. Based on the results, the development of greenhouse gas emissions could be predicted with high accuracy using only the identified main components. Generalizing the results, sensitivity analysis can assist in identifying the main components to be included in future scenarios for sustainable development.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Drivers of technology adoption — the case of nanomaterials in building construction

With the building and construction sector contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, there is great demand for resource- and energy-efficient construction materials. Manufactured nanotechnology products (MNPs) are expected to realize resource and energy efficiency through performance improvements in the strength, lightness and insulating properties of construction materials. However, the actual adoption of MNPs has lagged. This article examines how the construction sector in the United States assesses MNPs for adoption. Through patent analysis and interviews, we gauge the supply of MNPs and identify actors' roles in technology adoption. Results indicate that awareness of MNPs is more extensive than anticipated. Yet, MNP adoption is limited by a multi-component technology assessment process focused primarily on the technology’s applicability to project-based outcomes. We conclude that barriers to MNP adoption can be overcome through intermediary activities such as product certification, comprehensive technology assessments, and “real-world” demonstrations.     

Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis

With rapid economic development, higher income levels, urbanization and other socio-economic drivers, people's lifestyles in China have changed remarkably over the last 50 years. This paper uses the IPAT model (where I = Impact representing CO₂ emissions, P = Population, A = Affluence, and T = emission intensity) to analyze how these main drivers contributed to the growth of CO₂ emissions over this time period. Affluence or lifestyle change has been variously recognized as one of the key factors contributing to CO₂ emissions. Through comparative analysis of the development of five regions in China, we trace lifestyle changes since the foundation of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 until 2002. We find that household consumption across the five regions follows similar trajectories, driven by changes in income and the increasing availability of goods and services, although significant differences still exist between and within regions due to differential policies in China and different possibilities for social mobility. There are considerable differences between the southeast and northwest and between urban and rural areas. We also found that technological improvements have not been able to fully compensate for the increase of emissions due to population growth and increasing wealth, which is also in line with results from other studies. Finally, this paper emphasizes that developing countries such as China, which is home to 22% of the world population and a growing middle class, and which is on a fast track to modernization, need to ensure that people's lifestyles are changing towards more sustainable ways of living. China has been investing heavily in infrastructure and thus creating the emissions of tomorrow. Thus investing, for example, in public transport and low energy building today will help reduce emissions in the future and will support more sustainable lifestyles.     

低碳生活的新工具——碳标签

气候变化问题不仅是全球环境问题,更是人类可持续发展的问题。作为一种将产品生命周期中造成的温室气体排放量标识出来的方法——碳标签,直接影响需求端和供给端,转变大众的消费模式,形成低碳生活的新工具。对国际碳标签的发展进行梳理,并对我国的碳标签制度进行探讨,以期为我国低碳经济的可持续发展提供政策和理论依据。     

Coercive western energy security strategies: ‘resource wars’ as a new threat to global security

Against the background of the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 western coalition's war against Iraq, this article will argue that interstate resource wars and armed conflicts will constitute a new threat to global security. Two different phenomena are framing the conditions for future resource wars: first, an anticipated oil supply crisis as a first consequence of the decline of global oil reserves and second, the uneven distribution of these declining resources along the North-South axis. It is argued that in response to these developments the coercive character of traditional US strategies for securing energy will intensify, and thus bears the potential to escalate into further armed conflicts. It follows from this discussion that there are only two sustainable strategies for conflict prevention: first, the reduction of the dependency on fossil fuels by developing alternative and renewable energy, and second, the pursuit of a global policy based on more equitable and controlled energy distribution.     

跨越式发展下新疆低碳经济发展的战略选择——基于态势分析法

在全球气候变暖的大背景下,发展低碳经济,限制温室气体排放已逐渐成为全球共识。新疆进入了新的历史发展时期,转变经济发展方式,发展低碳经济,是新疆实现跨越式发展和长治久安的现实选择,也是确保新疆经济社会可持续发展的重要途径。文章采用态势分析方法,通过对新疆发展低碳经济的优势、劣势、机会、威胁的分析,积极探索新疆经济社会可持续发展道路。     

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US₂₀₁₀ by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.     

Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000–2080

What are the implications for agriculture of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions? By when and by how much are impacts reduced? Where does it matter most? We investigated these questions within the new A2 emission scenario, recently developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with revised population and gross domestic product projections. Coupling an agro-ecological model to a global food trade model, two distinct sets of climate simulations were analyzed: 1) A non-mitigated scenario, with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over 800 ppm by 2100; and 2) A mitigation scenario, with CO₂ concentrations stabilized at 550 ppm by 2100. Impacts of climate change on crop yield were evaluated for the period 1990–2080, then used as input for economic analyses. Key trends were computed over the 21st century for food demand, production and trade, focusing on potential monetary (aggregate value added) and human (risk of hunger) impacts. The results from this study suggested that mitigation could positively impact agriculture. With mitigation, global costs of climate change, though relatively small in absolute amounts, were reduced by 75–100%; and the number of additional people at risk of malnutrition was reduced by 80–95%. Significant geographic and temporal differences were found. Regional effects often diverged from global net results, with some regions worse off under mitigation compared to the unmitigated case.     

Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. Unfortunately, this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions. One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global, not local, disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions–income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate–economy interactions. We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency, (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that encompasses detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry. The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological options with regards to their aggregated cumulative contribution toward emissions mitigation during the 21st century as well as their deployment over time. Our results illustrate that the energy sector will remain by far the largest source of GHG emissions and hence remain the prime target of emissions reduction. Ultimately, this may lead to a complete restructuring of the global energy system. Climate mitigation could also significantly change the relative economics of traditional versus new, more climate friendly products and services. This is especially the case within the energy system, which accounts for the largest share of emissions reductions, but it is also the case in the agriculture and forestry sectors, where emissions reduction and sink enhancement measures are relatively more modest.     

中心城市道路运输节能减排途径的研究

节能减排是我国国民经济发展的基本国策,也是当前我国道路运输业转变经济发展方式的硬任务。中心城市是能源消耗和温室气体排放的重点区域,是节能减排的重要环节。在认真分析中心城市道路运输的特点及节能减排工作现状和存在问题的基础上,探索提高节能减排的途径,以提高中心城市道路运输节能减排工作的水平。     

World natural gas endowment as a bridge towards zero carbon emissions

We use a global energy market (GEM) model to show that natural gas has the potential to help stabilize global carbon emissions in a span of about 50–100 years and pave the way towards low and zero carbon energy.The GEM provides a close fit of the global energy mix between 1850 and 2005. It also matches historical carbon and CO₂ emissions generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. The model is used then to forecast the future energy mix, as well as the carbon and CO₂ emissions, up to the year 2150.Historical data show relative decarbonization and an increase in the amount of hydrogen burned as a percent of fossil fuel use between 1850 and 1970. The GEM indicates that with a larger contribution of natural gas to the future energy market, the burned hydrogen percentage will increase. This decarbonization will help to advance economic and environmental sustainability.     

Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives

Up to date, collective efforts in greenhouse gas mitigation made by the international community have been rather ineffective. A major reason of the unsuccessfulness may be attributed to imprecise comprehension on the sources of greenhouse gas pollution and their changing dynamics. Utilizing the LMDI decomposition method, this paper investigates the time- and spatial-dynamics of drivers governing global carbon emissions. We decompose and quantify the effects of different drivers, that is, population, affluence, energy intensity and carbon intensity, across time on global carbon emissions. Next based on country-level decomposition, we also calculate and track the spatial gravity centers of the effects of the drivers. Our results show that energy intensity effect is the leading contributor for carbon emission mitigation, whereas economic development, carbon emission intensity and population serve as factors accelerating carbon emissions. We also find significant heterogeneities in the spatial dynamics of the contribution of different drivers, implying that differentiated climate change policies should be made at different countries to effectively curb global carbon emissions.     

Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. We discuss the feasibility of achieving, on time scales acceptable for developing countries, both decarbonization and the needed structural changes or efficiency improvements, concluding that the decreases in energy consumption implied in numerous mitigation scenarios are unlikely to be achieved without endangering sustainable development objectives. To underscore the importance of basic energy needs also in the future, the role of infrastructure is highlighted, using steel and cement as examples.     

NEGOTIATING A RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ROLE OF BIOLOGICAL EMISSIONS

Researchers have attributed 15 percent of global methane releases to emissions of methane from enteric fermentation in animals (wild and domestic). Bovines contribute approximately two-thirds of this amount. Since methane is a potent greenhouse gas, this source frequently is a target for emission reductions. However, the existing literature overstates the importance of bovine methane as a greenhouse gas by as much as 800 percent. Estimates to date have focused solely on gas emissions, ignoring the biological and chemical cycling that removes carbon from the atmosphere. The analysis presented here demonstrates the importance of these cycles in assessing the overall greenhouse effect of biological methane sources such as rice production, termites, and bovine animals. Ignoring this cycling results in overemphasizing the role of developing countries' total contributions to climate change. In economic terms, the analysis shows that reducing CO2 emissions from energy use in industrialized countries is more efficient than reducing net greenhouse methane from animal sources.