Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies

Technology Assessment reflecting on R&D and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (> 10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socio-economic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media. In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool ‘roadmapping’ to contribute to the solution of this problem. This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe.     

Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective, discourse

This paper conceives technology assessment potentially to be a constructively democratic, reflective and discursive process. The paper reviews selected literature focusing on the notion and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA). CTA aims to produce better technology in a better society, and emphasises the early involvement of a broad array of actors to facilitate social learning about technology and potential impacts. The paper presents a new perspective of CTA based on a discussion of contiguous research on the social implications and control of technology, reflexivity and reflection in the ‘risk society’ (Beck), and on public understanding and participation in science and technology. The paper concludes that the future development of CTA is well served by improved articulation or revision of core elements of the approach, for example by emphasising a concern for interaction and socio-technical criticism based on democratic principles. In addition, to conceive of CTA as a discursive activity may facilitate the analysis of the limitations in practice on the role of non-experts participating in technology assessment and the capacity for self-reflection of all actors.     

Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI)

Expecting high return, many firms try to invest on R&D of new technology. However, critical loss of assets would occur, when a firm fails to commercialize the developed technology. It would be of interest to provide the ideal environment for commercialization from the R&D stage. In this study, we use a structural equation model (SEM) to forecast the technology commercialization success index (TCSI) in relation to technology developer, technology receiver, technology transfer center, and environmental factors. The proposed SEM is fitted based on partial least square (PLS) estimation procedure. Individual TCSI is then found following the approach used for American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) for various combinations of characteristics of the type of technology, technology receiver, and technology developer. We expect that the proposed approach for TCSI can be used as guidance for an ideal match of technology with technology developer and technology receiver.     

Dynamic sustainability assessment: The case of Russia in the period of transition (1985-2008)

Russia has experienced twenty years of economic and social change, which had a substantial impact on the regional and sectoral patterns of the development of its economy, infrastructure, the quality of the environment and the well-being of its people. The current economic revival offers new opportunities and presents new challenges for the sustainable development of Russia.The paper employs the UN Sustainable Development framework of indicators and assesses sustainability of Russia using multi-criteria evaluation methods, namely the uncertainty randomization multi-criteria evaluation method “Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency” (ASPID). The analysis covers economic, environmental and social trends in Russia's development in 1985-2008 and assesses sustainability of this development from the point of view of multiple criteria.The results show the potential of employment of multi-criteria methods for the sustainability assessment at the macro level and offer useful insights into multidimensional nature of sustainability and the role of priority setting in the evaluation process. Such an analysis reveals the degree of harmoniousness of sustainable development policy. It shows how different sets of priorities determine the outcome of multidimensional analysis of sustainability and could potentially help in assessing progress and designing new policy instruments. This paper is one of the first to apply multi-criteria methods to the macro sustainability analysis in the dynamic setting.     

Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context: A case study

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The study uses a propositional framework for evaluating the amount of radical change in the companies' business models with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The framework is used in a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry.The data was gathered in group-discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms of product characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.     

A conceptual framework for misfit technology commercialization

The emerging literature on outbound open innovation has highlighted innovation processes, which presuppose active outward technology transfer to increase firm profits. To contribute to this discourse, our paper goes beyond the emphasis on core-related technologies and knowledge that currently dominates the technology management literature and develops the novel concept of misfit technology. This concept captures technologies that are not aligned with a focal firm's current knowledge base and/or business model, but which may still be of great value to the firm if alternative commercialization options are considered. By developing a framework that acknowledges (1) Sources of misfit technology, (2) Environmental uncertainty, (3) Organizational slack, (4) Industry appropriability regime and (5) Technological complexity, we theorize on how different modes of commercialization relate to misfit technology commercialization success. The paper is conceptual and is presented with the purpose to spawn further research on this important topic, but simultaneously touches upon the issues of utmost relevance to R&D management practice.     

Relevance of barriers and facilitators in the use of health technology assessment in Colombia

Objectives: Several studies, mostly from developed countries, have identified barriers and facilitators with regard to the uptake of health technology assessment (HTA). This study elicited, using best-worst scaling (BWS), what HTA experts in Colombia consider to be the most important barriers and facilitators in the use of HTA, and makes a comparison to results from the Netherlands.

Methods: Two object case surveys (one for barriers, one for facilitators) were conducted among 18 experts (policymakers, health professionals, PhD students, senior HTA-researchers) from Colombia. Seven respondents were employees of the national HTA agency Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica de Salud (IETS). In total, 22 barriers and 19 facilitators were included. In each choice task, participants were asked to choose the most and least important barrier/facilitator from a set of five. Hierarchical Bayes modeling was used to compute the mean relative importance scores (RIS) for each factor, and a subgroup analysis was conducted to assess differences between IETS and non-IETS respondents. The final ranking was further compared to the results from a similar study conducted in the Netherlands.

Results: The three most important barriers (RIS >6.00) were “Inadequate presentation format”, “Absence of policy networks”, and “Insufficient legal support”. The six most important facilitators (RIS >6.00) were “Appropriate timing”, “Clear presentation format”, “Improving longstanding relation”, “Appropriate incentives”, “Sufficient qualified human resources”, and “Availability to relevant HTA research”. The perceived relevance of the barriers and facilitators differed slightly between IETS and non-IETS employees, while the differences between the rankings in Colombia and the Netherlands were substantial.

Conclusion: The study suggests that barriers and facilitators related to technical aspects of processing HTA reports and to the contact and interaction between researchers and policymakers had the greatest importance in Colombia.     

Quantitative mapping of patented technology — The case of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite

This study aims to obtain global technology evolution by constructing and analyzing patent citation network and patent citation map for the field of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite. A total of 1421 patents are retrieved from USPTO patent database and patent citation network is established by combing both patent citation and social network analysis. Network properties, e.g. Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality, are calculated for representing several technology evolution mechanisms that first proposed in this study. Also, a distance-based patent citation map is constructed by calculating relative distances and positions of patents in the patent citation network. Quantitative ways of exploring technology evolution are investigated in this study to unveil important or emerging techniques as well as to demonstrate dynamics and visualization of technology evolutions.     

Sustaining sustainability science: The role of established inter-disciplines

The establishment of new interdisciplinary fields such as ecological economics, human ecology or technology assessment can be interpreted as a logical consequence of striving for new sustainability sciences that address current global, multi-dimensional and multi-scale challenges. These set out to bridge the gap between the natural and the social sphere, between scientific analysis and societal action. This paper aims at re-assessing the contribution of established inter-disciplines to sustainable development. Journal articles of ecological economics, technology assessment and science and technology studies are evaluated and compared along several proposed features of sustainability science. The results converge in two crucial aspects. (1) Concise societal or political recommendations are not part of present day ‘normal science’, be it a disciplinary or an explicitly interdisciplinary research context. (2) Participatory exercises are rarely applied as a socio-politically embedded practice, despite a high interest in such exercises as an object of study and discussion.     

Innovation and ICT in service firms: towards a multidimensional approach for impact assessment

This article focuses on the multimodal character of innovation in services firms as the analytical framework by which to assess the role of different sources and agents, ICT in particular, in enabling various impacts of innovation. The peculiarities of service innovation require a wider approach than that observed for goods innovation, which is less focused on non-technological aspects. An ad hoc survey was carried out in the region of Madrid to test a microeconometric and multidimensional approach at the firm level. Specific impacts of innovation are examined by carrying out an ordered probit model with sample selection. Results indicate a certain correspondence between the multidimensional nature of service innovation and a preliminary impact assessment. The paper notes that ICT and clients–providers interactions are both important, acting to facilitate different types of service innovation.

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

The emergence of technology systems: knowledge production and distribution in the case of the Emilian plastics district

The emergence of technology systems is the result of interdependentdynamics of the generation and diffusion of complementary bitsof localised technological knowledge. Technological communicationis the crucial element assessing the collective conditions underwhich technological knowledge is accumulated and diffused. Thecase study of the emerging Emilian technological system in theplastics sector shows that the synchronic and diachronic localisedinteractions among industrial dynamics, institutional R&Defforts and technological interrelatedness are the determinantsof the systematic production, accumulation and distributionof localised technological knowledge, in turn explaining theorigin and development of the technology system itself.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria

This paper explores the issue of sustainability at the macro scale employing multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. The incommensurability of values and the essentially multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of sustainability challenge the use of composite measurement indices. This determined the choice of MCDA methods. Austria was chosen as a case study, due to the wide availability of data, especially on indicators of strong sustainability. The structure of the multi-criteria problem comprised the evolution of different sustainability dimensions over time. The process for selecting criteria included a critical assessment of institutional sustainability agendas (UN, EU and Austrian Government) and theoretical recommendations.After an assessment of MCDA methods, the NAIADE method demonstrated the most suitable properties for sustainability assessment. The application of this outranking approach was undertaken in three separate settings: long-term from 1960 to 2003, medium-term, 1970-1995, and short-term, 1995-2003 with varying numbers of criteria. The response of results to the addition of evaluating criteria and periods was tested. The degree of credibility for accepting preference relations was also employed for sensitivity analysis.According to the results of long-term and medium-term assessments, especially in the weak sustainability setting, sustainable progress is taking place in Austria. In the short term, in the stronger sustainability setting and, especially as the number of criteria increases, more incomparable periods appear and trends are less determined. Moreover, it is shown how results crucially depend on the methodological choices.This is one of the first applications of the multi-criteria tools to the dynamic analysis of sustainability at the macro scale.     

Assessment of China's and India's science and technology literature — introduction, background, and approach

Science and technology (S&T) allows (1) automation to replace human labor, (2) enhanced human labor capabilities, (3) quicker and cheaper production of goods, and (4) more complex products and processes. In order to maintain competitive advantages, it is critical for any country to understand what other countries are producing in S&T, and what intrinsic S&T capabilities are being developed.India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. These two dynamic economies are advancing rapidly in S&T, and it is prudent to assess the quantity and quality of their research output as well as to examine trends in their S&T capabilities.This paper, the first of four in a Special Section on China's and India's S&T, introduces the remaining three papers. Specifically, this paper describes the motivation for the studies, the background for understanding national S&T assessments, an overview of text mining, a brief picture of the Indian and Chinese S&T establishments, and a summary of the analytical techniques used in the assessments.     

Economic evaluation of healthcare technology improving the quality of social life: the case of assistive technology for the disabled and elderly

Public investments in healthcare technology for the disabled and elderly to improve the quality of social life have been vigorous, but the economic evaluation of the assistive technology is still lacking. Under this circumstance, the purpose of this study is to analyse the socio-economic value of developing assistive technologies with the potential to improve the quality of social life, especially for disabled and elderly individuals. Based on a survey of 400 respondents, the spike model, a special form of the contingent valuation method (CVM) is applied to assess the value of assistive technologies. In Korea, a household’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the development of assistive technologies is US$4.26 per year, on average, in the form of a government-levied tax; although many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies, people with higher household savings, higher levels of education and higher levels of charity donations have a higher WTP for the development of assistive technology. We conclude that although assistive technologies have considerable economic value many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies. Therefore, political and social educational efforts are necessary to reach social consensus on the government investment in such technologies.     

The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries: Windows of opportunity or further burden?

On the basis of a categorisation of ways in which the generated knowledge is transmitted, this paper explores the impact of the different forms of the globalisation of technology on developing countries. Through travelling, media, scientific and technical workshops, Internet and many other communication channels, globalisation allows the transmission of knowledge at a much greater pace than in the past. However, this does not automatically imply that developing countries succeed to benefit from technological advances. On the contrary, this will strongly rely on the nature of the technology and of the policies implemented in both advanced and developing countries.