网络效应市场的技术创新障碍及策略分析

在网络效应市场,技术创新对企业竞争力有着重要的影响。然而由于网络效应的作用,需求曲线发生改变,使市场均衡表现出"赢者通吃"的特征。这意味着,如果一项新技术的用户规模达不到临界容量,正反馈效应的存在将会使该技术被市场所抛弃。静态博弈和动态博弈的分析结果都表明,用户为了避免网络规模减小带来的效用损失,对新技术的采用往往采取观望态度,这将导致新技术难以达到最小网络规模要求的临界容量,也就无法取代旧技术的统治地位。为了加快新技术的扩散速度并成功战胜旧技术,企业在进行技术创新时应采取有效的技术创新策略:一是要采取合适的技术兼容策略;二是要鼓励和授权其他厂商使用自己的技术标准;三是要吸引辅助配套厂商共同进行技术研发。     

技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化的影响——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例

技术演化是区域实现高质量发展的关键动力。基于1999-2019年成渝地区142个县（市区）、637个专利技术领域的面板数据，考察技术关联、技术转移对成渝地区技术演化的影响，并进一步讨论区域发展阶段和技术含量的异质性作用。研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化均存在促进作用，同时，技术关联在先发地区和低技术含量领域的作用更显著，而技术转移在后发地区和高技术含量领域的作用更显著。进一步研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化存在“倒U”型影响，邻近地区技术演化对本地具有溢出效应。基于上述研究结论，建议成渝地区同时发挥技术关联与技术转移的作用，在发达区域技术关联强的领域加大要素投入，鼓励技术落后区域进行技术引进，加强区域协作，破除研发要素流动壁垒。     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

科技伦理治理机制及适度法制化发展

科技发展与法律规制存在步伐不匹配性,这为通由伦理学方法解决科技发展引发的伦理问题提出了制度建构需求。科技伦理由哲学理论学科或概念发展为一种治理机制,源于科技治理体制在科技与社会的持续互动中不断进行制度探索。科技伦理治理以解决伦理困境为目标,对科技伦理的影响进行探寻与反思,为个体行为提供伦理指引。科技伦理治理与法律治理享有不同治理逻辑,二者关系调和是科技治理体系完善的重点。科技伦理治理模式特征体现为适应性治理与软法规制,有必要通过适度法制化路径提升伦理治理效率。适度法制化路径应当坚持两个原则：审慎使用实体权利—义务规范方式规定伦理问题,推动法律通过规范程序方式促进伦理反思;建立法律规则、行政指引与自律规范相结合的多层次规范体系,完善风险交流机制与伦理共识达成机制,增强伦理原则执行力。     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

国家治理视域下科技伦理审查的制度路径

为应对科学研究活动可能产生的伦理道德问题,我国建立起以伦理审查委员会为主体的伦理审查制度。由于制度安排及体制机制存在先天不足与运行梗阻,运行中针对审查权缺乏有效监管,伦理审查未能达到预期风险防范效果,反而屡屡曝出有违伦理道德的学术丑闻。分析科技伦理审查的价值以及伦理审查制度安排的不足,最后提出,基于伦理审查较强的公权属性与公益目标价值,应以确立“风险预防”为核心的更加审慎的审查原则,优化审查主体建制模式,强化对伦理审查的监督与制约,以及加快伦理审查统合性立法进程,作为伦理审查制度完善走向,为科技发展扎紧伦理“篱笆”,推动科学技术“向善”良性发展。     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

政策措施对新兴技术演化的影响分析

在对新兴技术演化阶段划分的基础上，基于需求和供应视角对政府政策措施与新兴技术演化进行了匹配分析，并以3D打印技术为例，探讨了政策措施对新兴技术演化的影响。结果发现：在演化形成阶段，新兴技术可根据其发展特征分为基础研究、初步兴起、相对低潮、重新定向和应用研发5个阶段。在基础研究阶段，政府主要通过提供研发资金培育新兴技术；在初步兴起阶段，应注重为大学、科研院所、研发企业提供基础设施建设及相关资金投入；在相对低潮及重新定向阶段，政府要注重人才培养，支持并设立“示范工程”项目；进入应用研发阶段后，应兼顾供给侧与需求侧政策措施，尤其应落实领先市场政策。     

健康物联网技术应用伦理难题研究

健康物联网（H-IoT）技术进步带来医疗健康等领域的革命性变化,并为医疗、保健、护理和科学研究带来新机遇。由于互联网设备的固有风险、健康数据的敏感性以及医疗保健服务形式的转变,H-IoT技术应用将带来一系列伦理难题,具体包括：加剧个人信息泄露风险、H-IoT数据所有权与有效性的冲突、数据主体自主权与数据共享的冲突,以及由H-IoT介导护理产生的用户社会孤立化、医疗去情景化以及护理非专业化等。以国际代表性研究成果的理论框架为参考,从设备、数据协议、实践等层面分析未来需重点解决的H-IoT技术进步与应用伦理难题。     

Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions

Typically, firms decide whether or not to develop a new product based on their resources, capabilities and the return on investment that the product is estimated to generate. We propose that firms adopt a broader heuristic for making new product development choices. Our heuristic approach requires moving beyond traditional finance-based thinking, and suggests that firms concentrate on technological trajectories by combining technology roadmapping, information technology (IT) and supply chain management to make more sustainable new product development decisions. Using the proposed holistic heuristic methods, versus relying on traditional finance-based decision-making tools (e.g., emphasizing net present value or internal rate of return projections), enables firms to plan beyond the short-term and immediate set of technologies at hand. Our proposed heuristic approach enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term. Investments in new products should, as a result, generate returns over a longer period than traditionally expected, giving firms more sustainable investments. New products are costly and need to have a durable presence in the market. Transaction costs and resources will be saved, as firms make new product development decisions less frequently.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment

Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

新技术进步会阻碍传统技术创新吗——来自汽车产业的实证检验

在新旧技术竞争过程中,传统企业会适时调整研发策略,以应对新技术进步对传统技术造成的冲击。然而,新技术对传统技术的影响究竟表现为创新替代效应还是创新互补效应,至今依然没有得到确切结论。以汽车产业为研究对象,比较传统燃油汽车和电动汽车两种新旧技术的发展路径,并结合产业生命周期理论提出汽车产业的三阶段演化模型。进一步基于1995—2021年省级专利数据和面板向量自回归模型,从产品创新和工艺创新两个维度实证检验各阶段电动汽车技术进步对传统汽车企业创新的影响。结果表明,在电动汽车产业的范式导入期(1995—2008年),新技术通过产品创新和工艺创新两方面促进传统技术发展;在电动汽车产业的范式构建期(2009—2021年),新技术依然对传统技术有显著推动作用,但仅通过工艺创新促进传统技术发展。     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

Advances in evolution and genetics: Implications for technology strategy

Genetic and evolutionary principles are of great importance to technology strategists, both directly (as in the forecasting of genetic engineering technologies) and as a source of metaphor and perspective on socio-technical change. Recent rapid progress in the molecular sciences have revealed new genetic mechanisms of evolution, and introduced new controversies of interpretation. How do these recent developments affect technology forecasting and our view of technological evolution? This paper provides a quick primer for TFSC readers on several new developments in evolution and genetics, comments upon a number of common misconceptions and pitfalls in evolutionary thinking, and critically describes some controversies and open questions, introducing key readings and sources. It relates genetic and evolutionary knowledge, analogies and metaphors to areas of interest to researchers in technology forecasting and assessment, noting possible future directions. The paper concludes with an overview of the other papers in this special section.     

绿色与非绿色技术对后续创新影响的比较——“厚此薄彼”还是“双赢策略”

尽管绿色技术一直被认为具有广阔的发展前景,但这些技术在企业间的扩散率却很低。企业在非绿色与绿色技术创新关系上存在“厚此薄彼”的现象。基于1992—2019年中国制造业上市公司专利数据研究发现,相较于非绿色技术,绿色技术的前向引用次数更多,且产生了更大的知识溢出效应,对整个社会后续创新具有更大的正向影响力。此外,由于高能耗行业存在转化成本高、自身知识储备不足等问题,随着能耗水平提升,绿色技术对后续创新的正向影响力逐渐减弱。相较于非国有控股企业,国有控股企业绿色技术对后续创新产生了显著正向影响。该结论对政府设计绿色与非绿色创新“双赢策略”,促进企业从“厚此薄彼”转向绿色与非绿色技术双创新具有重要意义。     

Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

颠覆性技术关注方向演化研究

关注颠覆性技术创新方向演变对于构建颠覆性技术“发现—遴选—培养”机制，挖掘重大颠覆性技术选题具有重要意义。利用三螺旋协同性测度模型量化政府、产业、学术界3类主体对颠覆性技术关注方向的协同程度，构建颠覆性技术行动者网络，利用社会网络分析法解析网络结构形式下政、产、学三方关注颠覆性技术创新的耦合方向，探究高度耦合技术方向的演化特点。最后，获得技术关注方向协同性、技术关注耦合方向特征、技术关注方向耦合时间时序特征、技术关注方向耦合机构特征、高度耦合技术方向演化特征5个方面的结论。