Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology

This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Households technology adoption and use patterns: the case of digital terrestrial television in six Italian regions

The paper explores the technology adoption and use patterns of households. Many theories are focusing on the adoption; however, some studies show that the adoption mechanisms in households are still unknown. Before any sound theoretical proposals could be made, additional exploratory studies in this field are necessary to discover the relations between use behaviour and adoption determinants. To demonstrate this, our exploratory study uses the case of digital terrestrial television (DTT) introduction in Italy. The study incorporates exploratory factor analysis to identify dimensions of DTT adoption and use. These dimensions were further investigated through their relations with demographic variables of primary decision-makers in households. We found that DTT adoption and use relate to household characteristics in a relatively complex way, but clear systematic use patterns are evident. These patterns can serve as an empirical evidence to further develop theories in this field.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

The future of mobile shopping: The interaction between lead users and technological trajectories in the Japanese market

This paper uses the concepts of lead users and technological trajectories and the current status of mobile shopping in Japan to forecast the future of mobile shopping. In interviews with more than 100 Japanese and foreign firms between 2000 and 2005, the author investigated the impact of a number of technological trajectories on mobile shopping applications that are suggested to be promising ones based on the behavior of lead users. Push-based Internet mail and other key services that are not yet available in Western markets were the initial drivers of the market for mobile shopping in Japan between 2001 and 2003. Currently, the fastest growing market for mobile shopping in Japan involves the integration of mobile sites with other media such as magazines and radio and television programs where these other media compensate for the small screens of mobile phones. This paper forecasts the impact of improvements along a number of technological trajectories on the integration of mobile sites with other media.     

Trends affecting the next generation of U.S. agricultural biotechnology: Politics, policy, and plant-made pharmaceuticals

This paper analyzes the structure and history of regulatory policies in the United States, focusing on recent regulatory changes due to the promise and threat posed by plant-made pharmaceuticals (PMPs). PMPs are the latest advance in the genetic engineering of plants and promise to produce medicines inexpensively and abundantly by using a range of different plants as factories to express active medicinal ingredients; however, PMPs may pose a risk to the public's health if they enter the food supply. How the benefits and risks of PMPs are addressed by the respective government's regulation and how this will affect what, if any, products make it to the marketplace and their ultimate success are of great concern to many different parties, ranging from consumers and farmers to health and food production industries. As a result, this paper addresses the history of agricultural biotechnology regulatory policy since 1972, arguing that three distinct periods may be identified: (1) from 1972 to 1986 when the new biotechnology was focused on scientific self-regulation in the laboratory; (2) from 1987 to 2002, as the technology was being developed and widespread release of certain technologies became more common and was not perceived as an environmental threat, regulations became increasingly laxer; and finally, (3) we argue that we are entering a third phase with a series of controversies over regulatory infractions involving genetically engineered (GE) plants and the potential threats posed by PMPs.     

The impact of infrastructure and service-based competition on the deployment of next generation access networks: Recent evidence from the European member states

This work identifies the most important determinants of next generation access (NGA) network deployment, using data from the EU27 member states for the years 2005–2011. Our results indicate that the more service-based competition is pronounced the more negative is the impact on NGA deployment, while competitive pressure from broadband cable and mobile affects NGA deployment in an inverted U-shaped manner. We further find that there are severe adjustment costs and stickiness towards the desired long-term level of NGA infrastructure. It appears that the approach of the European Commission to force service-based competition via cost-based access regulation will not elicit the huge new investment needed for a comprehensive NGA roll-out.