区域金融发展如何影响农业信贷与农民创业*——基于CHFS的实证研究

本文利用2013年和2015年中国家庭金融调查微观数据，结合中国银保监会披露的金融许可证注册信息的网点分布情况，实证分析区域金融发展对农户增收创业的作用，以及不同类型金融机构和区域金融市场结构差异对以上作用的影响。研究发现：（1）区域内银行网点数量的增加会显著降低农业正规信贷约束和农户参与民间借贷的概率，推动农户创业；（2）不同金融机构的信贷行为存在显著差异，农商行等新型农村金融机构可以有效克服农信社的内部治理缺陷，改善支农服务；（3）区域银行集中程度越高，农商行等新型农村金融机构和大型国有银行的支农效果越弱，两者在高集中度地区难以发挥积极作用。由此可见，仅仅依靠惠农政策或农信社改制来推动农民增收创业缺乏效力，应在建设竞争有序的区域金融市场的基础上鼓励金融机构改善支农服务。     

Growth of Investor Owned and Cooperative Firms in Greek Dairy Industry

This paper examines the factors that affect the annual growth of cooperatives and investor owned firms (IOF) in Greek diary industry over the period 1990–94. A comparison based on both cooperative principals and property rights theory is made between IOFs and cooperatives to study their characteristics. However an empirical work is required to explain differences, if any, in the growth of the two types of firms within the same market. The work examines the determinants of the annual growth and it tests whether significant differences between IOFs and cooperatives exist. Ordinary least squares results show that both diversification and advertising strategies are important determinants for IOF growth, while the cooperative growth depends on capital structure and intensity and these organizations do not effectively apply competitive strategies.     

基于流动壁垒的IT产业战略群组间竞争战略分析

IT产业中不同战略群组之间存在不同的流动壁垒,其中主要是以企业为主体的策略性壁垒。属于不同战略群组的企业会受到不同流动壁垒的保护。微软阵营的流动壁垒是技术积累和知识沉淀的结果,而反微软阵营流动壁垒产生的缘于阵营内公司对微软阵营垄断地位的反抗。战略群组间流动壁垒的高低是导致行业中公司利润差异的重要因素。在应对IT产业战略群组的流动壁垒方面,在位企业需要保护已有的流动壁垒,而潜在进入企业可以通过模仿和改进的方式打破原有的流动壁垒加入竞争行列,或者通过创造新的流动壁垒,赢得市场竞争优势。     

Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the banking sector structure matters in explaining credit procyclicality for 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. To this end, we first provide a detailed classification of the banking system structure through the use of a hierarchical clustering methodology. Relying on the estimation of panel VAR models and accounting for potential heterogeneity between countries, we then propose a measure of credit procyclicality based on the impulse-response function of credit to a shock in GDP. Our findings show that while credit significantly responds to shocks in GDP, the structure of the banking sector is not a key factor in assessing the procyclicality of credit for OECD countries.     

STRATEGIC DIAGNOSIS OF SPANISH FARMING COOPERATIVE CREDIT SECTIONS: A SWOT ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT 1 : Farming cooperative credit sections are financial instruments set up within a cooperative and at its service. They are key funding tools in rural areas and have been developed all over Spain although more intensely in some areas than others. The aim of this paper is to carry out a strategic diagnosis of the Spanish credit section using a SWOT Analysis to discover its set of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, as well as a proposal for strategic actions to be followed. In order to do so an empirical study using personalized surveys and interviews has been undertaken among the managers or persons in charge of the credit sections over the first half of 2008. The study demonstrates that they are efficient entities for their clients (cooperative members). Their main strengths are focussed on their clients, although they show significant weaknesses in organizational, business and technological capacities, which require an effort to provide them with more professional management. Legal constraints are the main threat at present, although uncertainty in the agricultural sector affects their survival.     

Moving toward risk-based deposit insurance premiums in the European Union: the case of Spain

This article provides a scenario-based analysis of how the European Union proposal for a new funding model for deposit insurance systems (DISs) would affect the Spanish banking sector. We examine the risk profiles of commercial banks, savings banks and credit cooperatives over the period 2007 to 2011 and compare the contributions to the deposit insurance fund (DIF) under the current flat-rate regime with those that would have occurred under the new risk-sensitive system. We find that a risk-based scheme could provide an incentive for sound management by reducing the premiums for credit institutions with better risk profiles. We also conclude that the proposed reform may help to mitigate the moral hazard associated with larger credit institutions.     

房价波动、隐含担保与银行系统性风险*

银行对房地产行业的信贷优先倾向导致信贷投放向房地产业集中,房地产价格波动对金融系统性风险的影响日益突出。本文基于银行与房地产两部门或有权益资产负债表分析框架,从资产和负债两个方面研究房地产部门对银行的风险传导机制,构造银行对房地产部门的隐含担保比例作为度量风险传导强度的指标,运用TVP VAR方法刻画2002—2016年我国房价波动与房地产部门、银行系统性风险的动态演变路径。研究结果表明,我国房地产风险主要通过银行信贷从负债项进行风险传导,房地产部门风险对风险传导强度的影响存在明显的结构性突变,银行系统性风险存在非线性加速恶化特征。本文最后提出要稳定房价、拓宽房地产融资渠道、降低地方政府对土地财政依赖等建议。     

Adverse risk interaction: An integrated approach

This paper studies adverse interaction between credit and market risk. We develop a comprehensive Merton-type model, in which payment ability of borrowers is driven by the overall economic growth, while the level of their liabilities is sensitive to market variables. To illustrate the model, we apply numerical simulations to estimate credit, market and integrated Value at Risk from the loss distribution using industry-wide data from the Serbian banking sector. We show that—even after accounting for presence of market risk in the banking book—the total risk remains higher than the simple sum of credit and market risk. The results emphasize the importance of integrated approach to assessment of economic capital.     

外资银行进入与中资银行业生态链的调整

外资银行进入后会对中国银行业进入带来一定的冲击的,应尽快对银行业生态链布局需要进行调整。通过四大国有银行主攻批发业务,尤其是针对优质大客户的业务;股份制商业银行以零售业务为主,加强产品的创新能力;城市商业银行,农村信用合作社立足当地,主攻对中小企业的信贷增强其稳定性等办法可在一定程度上缓解冲击,增强其稳定性。     

基于不同专利战略的科技银行信贷动态决策与风险管理研究

高新技术企业既可先获取专利保护,再进行商业化;也可在研发成功、技术保密状态下直接进行商业化。从科技银行角度出发,建立了基于不同专利战略的科技银行信贷动态决策模型。模型全面、客观地对高新技术项目价值进行了评估,并对科技银行的信贷决策进行了指导。给出了模型参数的确定方法,并分析了各参数对信贷决策的影响,结合案例验证了此模型在科技银行信贷决策问题上的分析结果,提出了改进科技银行信贷决策评价方法以及进行信贷风险有效管理的政策建议。     

News-driven international credit cycles

How does news about future economic fundamentals affect within-country and cross-country credit allocation? How effective is unconventional policy when financial crises are driven by unfulfilled favorable news? I study these questions by employing a two-sector, two-country macroeconomic model with a banking sector in which financial crises are associated with occasionally binding leverage constraints. In response to positive news on the valuation of non-traded sector capital which turns out to be incorrect at a later date, the model captures the patterns of financial flows and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000–2010, including the changes in the sectoral allocation of bank credit and movements in cross-country borrowing during the boom and the bust. When there are unconventional policies by a common authority in response to unfulfilled favorable news, liquidity injections perform better in ameliorating the downturn than direct assets purchases from the non-traded sector.     

Dynamics of CDS spread indexes of US financial sectors

This article examines the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread index for three sectors, banking, financial services and insurance, in the short and long run. In the long run, the results show that the index of the insurance sector which sells the long term CDS contracts has the highest adjustment, while the banking sector is not error correcting. In the short run, although the insurance sector CDS spread index has general predictive power of all sector CDS spreads, the evidence suggests that the banking sector particularly leads the financial services and this in turn leads the insurance sector, implying a leading sector CDS pricing role for the banking spreads in the short run. The short run sensitivity Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) and Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVDC) analyses also demonstrate that the sectors’ credit risk responds more to credit events in the banking sector than in the other two sectors other than their own over a 50 day horizon. However, the lowest cross sector CDS shock impacts in the short run come from the insurance sector. These results are useful for regulators wishing to embark on new regulations of these financial institutions such as Basel III.     

REVISITING GLOBALIZATION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATIVES

Cooperatives have gained prominent attention in recent years as strategic elements to achieve sustainable economic development and greater social cohesion in the context of neoliberal globalization. This article explores, theoretically, the current challenges and opportunities for cooperatives to develop successfully in the globalizing economy. To this end, we provide an analytical, critical review of the key bibliography concerning some fundamental aspects that shape the relationship between economic globalization and cooperatives, an issue that has been generally neglected by previous literature. Three key fields are addressed: 1) the viability of cooperatives, based on their strengths and possible weaknesses, under current globalization; 2) the role of these organizations in promoting the local development and stability of local communities; and 3) the tensions and potentialities that internationalization entails for cooperatives. Based on the analytical review and the organization of the literature, we propose an agenda for further research. This includes some hypotheses and strategies for testing them that would be essential to assess the role of cooperatives in economic globalization, and sheds light on key areas for future research that could provide a better understanding of the complexity surrounding the relationship between globalization and cooperatives.     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。       

Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI

In this paper, we analyze the link between the macroeconomic developments and the banking credit risk in a particular group of countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) – recently affected by unfavourable economic and financial conditions.Employing dynamic panel data approaches to these five countries over the period 1997q1–2011q3, we conclude that the banking credit risk is significantly affected by the macroeconomic environment: the credit risk increases when GDP growth and the share and housing price indices decrease and rises when the unemployment rate, interest rate, and credit growth increase; it is also positively affected by an appreciation of the real exchange rate; moreover, we observe a substantial increase in the credit risk during the recent financial crisis period. Several robustness tests with different estimators have also confirmed these results.The findings of this paper indicate that all policy measures that can be implemented to promote growth, employment, productivity and competitiveness and to reduce external and public debt in these countries are fundamental to stabilize their economies.     

Financial openness,market structure and private credit: An empirical investigation

Consistent with recent theoretical models, this paper finds that financial openness has a positive effect on private credit in economies characterized by a competitive banking sector, but that this effect vanishes and even becomes negative in economies with imperfect banking competition.     

Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Kenya for the period 1966–2005 within a quadvariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including exports and imports as additional variables to the finance–economic growth nexus. We use four conventionally accepted proxies for financial development, namely money supply (M2), liquid liabilities (M3), domestic bank credit to the private sector and total domestic credit provided by the banking sector (all percent of GDP). Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 1995; 66; 225–250], our empirical results suggest that in three out of the four measures of financial development we found evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth; (2) between total domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth, and (3) between liquid liabilities and economic growth. This implies that neither the supply-leading nor the demand-following hypotheses are supported in Kenya and that economic growth and financial development are jointly determined, or they complement each other. A major implication of our finding is that financial development promotes economic growth in Kenya and that policies at enhancing the development of the financial sector can help to spur economic growth.     

Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low‐Income Countries Special?

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low‐income countries? In this paper, we explore the channels through which the structure of banking markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study whether idiosyncratic volatility at the bank level can impact aggregate volatility. We find weak evidence for a link between granular banking sector volatility and macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, a higher share of domestic credit to GDP coincides with higher volatility in the short run. Third, a higher level of cross‐border asset holdings increases volatility in low‐income countries.     

中国信贷歧视的福利成本*

国有企业与民营企业之间的信贷歧视是中国经济转型过程中所特有的现象。本文构建了一个具有信贷歧视的动态随机一般均衡模型,以计算中国信贷歧视的福利成本。计算结果表明,信贷歧视大约会使整体社会的福利损失增加62%,其原因在于信贷歧视加剧了民营企业的产出波动并进而放大了通胀波动。本文进一步对比了不同货币政策下的福利损失,发现信贷歧视均会产生福利成本。据此,本文认为信贷歧视必须予以破除,从而消除信贷歧视带来的福利成本。