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1.
Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alberto Bagnai 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2006,3(2):137-155
Recent theoretical and empirical analyses of the relation between the current account and the government budget balance suggest that the “twin deficits” relation is subject to structural changes. Most previous empirical analyses impose the change point without resorting to econometric testing. In this paper we utilize time series data to evaluate the impact of structural breaks on the long- and short-run relation between current account, government balance and investment in 22 OECD countries. We found that when allowing for the possible existence of structural breaks of unknown date, the data reveal more clearly the long-run relation between the current account and its determinants. Moreover, the empirical results show that the degree of financial integration is generally increasing in most OECD countries, including the leading non-EU economies. This contrasts some recent evidence on the persistence of the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle.
相似文献
Alberto BagnaiEmail: Fax: +39-068081100 |
2.
Vincent Vicard 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):167-187
Regional trade agreements (RTAs) are usually classified according to their form into four broad categories: preferential arrangements,
free trade agreements, customs unions and common markets. This paper investigates whether the form/depth of RTAs matters concerning
their effect on trade. I use a proper specification of the gravity model with panel data on the 1960–2000 period, which specifically
control for self-selection into agreements. Results show that creating any kind of RTAs providing trade preferences to their
member countries significantly increases bilateral trade. Nevertheless, their average treatment effect on bilateral trade
does not significantly differ according to the depth of agreements.
相似文献
Vincent VicardEmail: |
3.
This paper examines the impact of trade policy on specialization patterns in ten Latin American countries over the period
1985–1998. These countries are natural case studies because in the last decades they implemented comprehensive trade liberalization
programs, both generally and preferentially, starting from relatively high tariff protection levels. Our econometric results
suggest that reducing own most favored nation tariffs is associated with increasing manufacturing production specialization.
Furthermore, we find that preferential trade liberalization and differences in the degree of unilateral openness have resulted
in increased dissimilarities in manufacturing production structures across countries. These results are robust across specialization
measures and estimation methods.
相似文献
Christian Volpe MartincusEmail: |
4.
Feldstein and Horioka (Econ J 90:314–329, 1980) observed that saving and investment move closely together in the major OECD
countries. This finding is a puzzle if national economies are characterized by one sector neoclassical production functions—with
diminishing returns to capital, a high level of savings in a country should create an incentive to export capital. In this
paper, we show that this incentive disappears in the presence of multiple sectors with differing capital intensities. In a
high saving country, national capital can be absorbed domestically without a decline in its marginal product through a shift
in the sectoral composition of national production towards capital intensive sectors. This is nothing but the well-known Rybczynski
effect. We present a modified version of the standard Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) Model to show that very small barriers to capital
mobility are enough to force national savings to stay within the country of origin. We also argue that, while the assumptions
of this model may appear special, they are not unrealistic for the developed countries in the Feldstein Horioka study. Some
historical economic trends are also consistent with the picture presented in this paper. Finally, the paper shows that the
conventional insights from the one sector neoclassical model can be completely overturned in a multi-sector setting when technological
differences are introduced.
相似文献
Ufuk DemirogluEmail: |
5.
Eric Toulemonde 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):203-219
The paper builds an analytically tractable model that illustrates the “proximity–concentration trade-off” involved in horizontal
multinationals. For low trade costs, firms are single-plant firms, for intermediate costs, some are single-plant firms whereas
others are multinationals, for large trade costs, firms are multinationals. Because of the modeling strategy, the model is
suited for a welfare analysis of multinationals. It shows that too many firms choose to concentrate their production in only
one location. Also, for some transport costs, a reduction in transport costs worsens welfare.
相似文献
Eric ToulemondeEmail: |
6.
Mathias Hoffmann 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):183-201
The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth
on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data
are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on
international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most
of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in
conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore
this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the
dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations
account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent
differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for
the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of
risk sharing between countries.
相似文献
Mathias HoffmannEmail: URL: www.iew.uzh.ch/itf |
7.
Leonor Coutinho 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(1):81-120
In this paper we extend the open-economy stochastic framework of Obstfeld and Rogoff (Q J Econ. 117:503–36, 2002) to include distortionary taxation, when prices are flexible but wages are sticky. We use the model to analyze the optimal
design of tax rules that respond to productivity shocks, under non-cooperation and cooperation between the fiscal authorities,
and evaluate the gains from coordination. We show that, although monetary policy would be preferred to fiscal policy as a
stabilization tool both under competition (Nash) and under cooperation, there is a role for procyclical fiscal stabilization
in a monetary union where the monetary authority cannot respond to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, we show that in the Nash game
there will be an incentive for the fiscal authorities to try to manipulate the terms-of-trade in their favor, and we estimate
the potential gains from fiscal policy coordination. The size of the gains depends crucially on the value of the Frisch elasticity
of labor supply. For lower values of the Frisch elasticity (more in line with microeconometric estimates) the gains are relatively
small, but for more elastic labor supplies (more in agreement with the business cycle literature) the gains can be very large.
相似文献
Leonor CoutinhoEmail: |
8.
Silvio H. T. Tai 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):225-249
Many recent studies have looked at the impact of international migration on trade and found a significant effect. They posit
that migration fosters trade by lowering costs or by means of a preference bias. However, to my knowledge, market structure
has not as yet been considered. Using data from Switzerland, this paper empirically assesses the extent to which migration
affects trade, taking goods differentiation into account. A monopolistic model with a multisector economy (Chaney in Am Econ
Rev 98(41):1707–1721, 2008) is then empirically estimated. The findings show that market structure explains the different channels through which migration
affects trade.
相似文献
Silvio H. T. TaiEmail: |
9.
This paper investigates whether small countries gain relatively more than large countries from an ‘expansion’ of their market
through the creation of a single currency. The introduction of the euro offers a particularly valuable source to test this
hypothesis, which we motivate using the theoretical model by Casella of the year 1996. Our results from a panel data analysis,
using both aggregate and disaggregated trade data, point to a statistically significant but quantitatively moderate small
country bonus. On average, the euro has led to an improvement of the small euro area’s relative export performance by 3–9%.
相似文献
Harald BadingerEmail: |
10.
In their seminal paper, Morris and Shin (Amer Econ Rev 92(5): 1521–1534, 2002a) argued that increasing the precision of public information is not always beneficial to social welfare. Svensson (Amer Econ
Rev 96: 448–451, 2006) however has disputed this by saying that although feasible, the conditions for which this was true, were not all that likely.
In that respect, therefore, increasing ‘transparency’ remains most of the times beneficial to social welfare. In this paper,
we extend the Morris and Shin attempt by setting it up as an explicit interactive game between the Central Bank, the objectives
of which we model explicitly, and the private sector. We show that in the absence of costs, both players benefit from transparency
in the manner described previously in the literature, and point the differences in their gains. Following that, we then introduce
the fact that increasing transparency comes at some costs and show how both players face incentives to free ride on each other
as a result. The presence of costs thus alters the way in which greater transparency is attained.
相似文献
Marco HoeberichtsEmail: |
11.
This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years.
It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The
evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened
over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration
to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.
相似文献
Francesco Paolo MongelliEmail: |
12.
This paper assesses China’s “natural” place in the world economy with a new set of trade integration indicators, which are
used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such
as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates
many more factors than traditional openness ratios. The model tracks international trade well and confirms that China is already
well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets
and most euro area countries.
相似文献
Matthieu BussièreEmail: |
13.
Ernesto Valenzuela Kym Anderson Thomas Hertel 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2008,4(4):395-420
The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade
reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001.
However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable
general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and
regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about
factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
相似文献
Ernesto ValenzuelaEmail: |
14.
Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
In this paper, we analyze the impact of terms of trade and risk-premium shocks on a small open economy in an intertemporal
Dutch disease model, with international capital mobility. Given that an improvement in the terms of trade is associated with
a decrease in the risk-premium on lending to this economy, we find that this can lead to a Dutch party (rather than Dutch
disease) in which real exchange rate appreciation is associated with an expansion of the capital-intensive traded sector,
hence, pro-industrialization. The economy also accumulates more debt in the long-run in response to the lower borrowing costs.
相似文献
David Vines (Corresponding author)Email: |
15.
In this paper we extend Nordhaus’ (Brookings Pap Econ Act (2):139–199, 1994) results to an environment which may represent the current European situation, characterised by a single monetary authority
and several fiscal bodies. We show that, even assuming that the monetary and the fiscal authorities share the same ideal targets,
in the presence of asymmetric shocks the “symbiosis” result found by Dixit and Lambertini (J Int Econ 60:235–247, 2003) no longer obtains. Thus, fiscal rules as those envisaged in the Maastricht Treaty and in the Stability and Growth Pact may
work as monetary/fiscal coordination devices that improve welfare. The imposition of common targets, however, may work as
a substitute for policy coordination only if these are made state contingent, an aspect that the recent version of the Stability
and Growth Pact takes into account in a more appropriate way than its original version.
相似文献
Valeria De BonisEmail: |
16.
Marcelo Sánchez 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(3):371-390
We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilization in catching-up participating countries. We allow
member states’ supply conditions to differ, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks
of the type associated with the Balassa–Samuelson effect tend to hamper the stabilization properties of a currency union.
In the face of aggregate supply disturbances, the stabilization costs of renouncing monetary autonomy diminish with a steeper
supply curve (as induced by higher trade openness) and—barring idiosyncratic shocks—with a larger reference country size,
more homogeneous supply slopes and a higher preference for price stability.
相似文献
Marcelo SánchezEmail: |
17.
Political regime and FDI from advanced to emerging countries 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We investigate the effect of the political regime on bilateral FDI flows from advanced to emerging countries in the period
1992–2004. We control for country size, per capita income and privatization proceeds in the host country, and use a random-effect
Tobit model to exploit information from zero entries. Our results suggest that democracy does have a positive effect on the
amount and probability of FDI flows from developed to emerging countries. Moreover, we find that the effect of democracy on
FDI also works through the total factor productivity channel, not only the political risk one as suggested in the literature.
相似文献
Stefano ManzocchiEmail: |
18.
Within a two-sector-two-country model of trade with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, a more generous welfare state
in one country increases welfare in that country and can have positive spillover effects on the other. Furthermore, synchronised
expansions of social security are more welfare enhancing than unilateral ones. Our results counter the fears that a race to
the bottom in social standards may result from the ‘shrinking-tax-base’ entailed by international capital mobility. While
affecting trade patterns and income distribution, capital mobility interacts with welfare state policies in increasing welfare,
even when capital flows out of the country that initiates the shock.
相似文献
Catia MontagnaEmail: |
19.
International Risk Sharing and Government Moral Hazard 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Wolf Wagner 《Open Economies Review》2007,18(5):577-598
This paper analyzes incentive problems caused by international risk sharing. They arise because international risk sharing
contributes to the insurance of domestic consumption and thus lowers governments’ incentives to increase output. We show that
the resulting distortions can lead to substantial efficiency losses. Complete risk sharing is, therefore, undesirable and
the optimal degree of risk sharing may be low. Furthermore, we show that households’ risk sharing decisions are socially inefficient
and are effectively maximizing government moral hazard. As a result, financial innovation and integration may reduce welfare
by increasing households’ risk sharing opportunities.
相似文献
Wolf WagnerEmail: |
20.
Caroline Schmidt 《Open Economies Review》2007,18(3):347-367
In this paper, it is argued that the observed high positive correlation between national savings and investment which is found
in the data can in part be explained by shocks to monetary policy. This hypothesis, which is established by reviewing some
empirical findings, is tested in a two-country DSGE-model framework in the tradition of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics.
The simulation results obtained support the idea that shocks to monetary policy might contribute to the explanation of the
Feldstein-Horioka puzzle.
相似文献
Caroline SchmidtEmail: |