A reconsideration of what and who is middle class in South Africa

In this paper, we revisit ‘what and who’ is middle class in South Africa using data collected in the 2008 National Income Dynamics Study. First, we consider how to identify the middle class based on two broad definitions adopted in the international economics literature: a middle class defined by the middle share of the national income distribution; and a middle class defined by an absolute level of affluence and lifestyle. We explore alternative ways of capturing the ‘middle income strata’ and we suggest an approach for identifying threshold levels of income associated with middle-class affluence. Second, we show that the size and the composition of the middle class in South Africa are both very sensitive to how the middle class is defined. In particular, we demonstrate that there is very little overlap between the two broad definitions, a finding which reflects very high levels of poverty and inequality in the country.     

Child-headed households in South Africa: What we know and what we don't

Household structures in many countries in Africa have been drastically changed by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Traditionally, orphans were absorbed by members of the extended family but today this safety net no longer works so well and many children are left to fend for themselves. The South African Government recognises the problem, but views differ on the effectiveness of the programmes for assisting these children. This article looks at what is known and what needs further research. It is known that child-headed households do exist in South Africa and that children living in these households are vulnerable. What is not known is the prevalence of these households and how to deal with the children's psycho-social problems. The article argues that the definition of child-headed households needs to be refined if we are to understand the extent of the problem. This will facilitate assessment of the programmes established for these children.     

Multilateral trade cooperation: what next?

This paper first briefly describes the role of the WTO and itshistory. It then lays out a simple bargaining model of internationalnegotiations, which can be used for understanding the Doha Roundof talks. Using this, we distil what we regard as the majorpotential explanations for the difficulties in these talks.We then discuss a number of the systemic questions that confrontWTO members. We suggest that the WTO should concentrate on marketaccess, rather than on promoting a development agenda or onfurther expanding its coverage to deal with regulatory issuesor with other domestic policies.     

从福田辖区外贸管理谈政府的有所为有所不为

区委、区政府提出“大经济、大发展、大服务”的辖区经济发展战略后，我们必然首先要发出这样的“问号”：在政府实施创新辖区经济管理模式时，政府应该干什么?政府能够干什么?政府应该……     

Globalization and labour-market adjustment: how fast and at what cost?

In this paper we argue that the flexibility of an economy'slabour market plays a role in determining the gains from tradeliberalization, the level of short-run adjustment costs, andthe relative value of these two measures. To do so, we describethe model introduced in Davidson and Matusz (2000) which allowsus to solve for adjustment costs when workers vary accordingto ability and jobs differ in terms of the skills that theyrequire. We then report results based on simulations of thismodel. We find that economies with sluggish labour markets havethe least to gain from liberalization. The reason is that whilethe removal of trade barriers creates large benefits, they arealmost completely offset by large short-run adjustment costs.In contrast, we find that with either very flexible or veryslothful labour market gains from liberalization are alwayssignificantly larger than the short-run adjustment costs.     

Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?

Indonesia has an impressive record of economic growth and poverty reduction over the past two decades. The growth-poverty nexus appears strong at the aggregate level. However, newly constructed panel data on the country's 285 districts reveal huge differences in poverty change, subnational economic growth and local attributes across the country. The results of econometric analysis show that growth is not the only factor to affect the rate of poverty change; other factors also directly influence the welfare of the poor, as well as having an indirect effect through their impact on growth itself. Among the critical ones are infrastructure, human capital, agricultural price incentives and access to technology. While fostering economic growth is crucial, a more complete poverty reduction strategy should take these relevant factors into account. In the context of ecentralisation, subnational analysis can be an instructive approach to examining local governance in relation to growth and poverty reduction.     

The urban programme what has it achieved?

On the 13th November a one day seminar on the Urban Programme was held by the London Economic Policy Unit (LEPU) at the Polytechnic of the South Bank. This paper provides a short summary of the issues raised.     

Do free-market economists practice what they teach?

Conclusion There is then a fundamental inconsistency between theory and application for political economists who both rely on standard microeconomics for their support of the free market and scorn government intervention. Theory matters in free-market critiques of public policy. It matters, however, not only in determining the content of those critiques, but also, from a methodological standpoint, in the sense of whether the world-view presupposed by theory is one that leaves room for any meaningful critique to take place at all. It should not be news that the authorities in charge of public policy are ignorant. Surprisingly, if we start from the presumptions of perfect-knowledge economics we would be logically led to conclude that those authorities indeed never make mistakes, or if they do that it must have been planned that way all along. Fortunately, political economists working in the Austrian tradition are, as they have been since B?hm-Bawerk’s and Mises’s devastating critiques of Marxian economics and socialism, free from having to maintain this curious point of view. He also studied with Professor Sennholz at Grove City College.     

关于提高时间效益的几点分析

在物质资料的生产过程中,任何劳动成果的获得都是物化劳动和活劳动的消耗,同时也都是时间的消耗。因此,我们在评价经济效益大小时,必须重视对时间效益的分析。本文对提高时间效益含义、劳动时间和劳动成果的变化关系的量的关系、提高时间效益途径等三方面进行粗浅分析。     

拿什么拯救你，欧元？

9月17日，希腊一名55岁的小商人不堪债务缠身，在银行门前第三次引火自焚，触目惊心，凸显该国债务危机的深重。     

Between micro and macro — what economic history can learn from modern economics

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of economic history to modern economic theory. Taking my point of departure from the division that still haunts economic history — between micro and macro approaches — the paper argues that economic theory today is significantly different from what it was only twenty or thirty years ago. Hence, for example, the division between micro and macro has been upset in modern economics. Also the development of institutional economics, the use of concepts like “bounded rationality” or “path dependence” makes it necessary for economic historians to learn from and confront modern economic theorizing. Many economic historians criticise a version of (neo-classical) economics) that belongs rather to the past than to the present.     

Recent declines in fertility in less developed countries,and what ‘population planners’ may learn from them

Significant and rapid fertility declines have occurred in many countries in the poor world over the past decade; many of these were unanticipated by demographers. Despite advances in statistical technique and demographic theory, little is yet known about the demographic rhythms of life in poor countries, or of the social forces behind them. Fertility decline, however, appears to have much to do with changes, economic and otherwise, within the family structure. The impact of ‘family planning’ programmes on fertility decline appears to have been exaggerated. ‘Population planners’ should be sensitive to the fact that a decline in fertility does not necessarily mean that an improvement in the standard of living has occurred, and they should not assume that reducing fertility automatically increases either the quality of life or the prospects for ‘development’.     

博鳌亚洲论坛:给海南经济带来什么

举世瞩目的博鳌亚洲论坛第二届年会于2003年11月2～3日在海南博鳌召开.共有来自世界各地区和国家的代表1200余人出席了会议.中国国务院总理温家宝出席会议并作了主旨演讲.     

How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?

This paper studies the interaction between foreign trade and domestic demand and supply in China's economic transformation. It compares China's export dependency with other economies using input–output analysis. The paper also conducts econometric analysis of provincial level data to examine causality between the growth of foreign trade and components of domestic demand, and causality between the growth of foreign trade and total factor productivity. The main message is that China's export dependency is significantly lower than implied by the headline exports-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, the contribution of export to economic growth in China came mainly from its impact on total factor productivity growth from a supply perspective rather than its multiplier effect from a demand perspective. This relationship was found to be stronger in the more developed coastal areas than in the less developed inland areas.     

Arthur Lewis distinguished lecture what’s left of what’s left? or: What does it mean to be a socialist today?

After a few reminiscences about Arthur Lewis, several questions on what socialism is not about are raised. Neither public ownership, nor welfare services nor central planning are considered essential to it. The view that the distinction capitalism-socialism is obsolete is briefly discussed. It is argued that many important distinctions cut across the divide. The United States is held up as a socialist country. Changes in the socialist creed in the last century are noted. An alternative window of looking at the private-public sector distinction is discussed. And the essence of socialism as the democratization of political and civil society and private firms is advanced. A final plea for pedantic utopianism is made.