海外直接投资对韩国出口的效应分析

韩国海外直接投资发展迅速，目前已是发展中国家中主要的对外投资国。本文就海外直接投资与韩国出口之间的关系做了探讨，并从海外直接投资与出口规模、出口产品结构、贸易条件和外贸竞争力四个方面分析了海外直接投资对韩国出口的实际影响。     

地方政府债务对产业结构优化的影响研究——基于“双循环”新发展格局的实证分析

文章基于2015年—2019年我国大陆31个省区市面板数据,以“双循环”为背景并将“双循环”相关因素作为中介变量,探究地方政府债务对产业结构优化的影响。研究发现：“双循环”背景下,地方政府债务对产业结构合理化有抑制作用,对产业结构高度化有促进作用。从产业结构合理化方面说,内循环层面变量居民消费结构、固定资产投资率、实际利率、技术水平和城市化率对地方政府债务影响产业结构合理化有显著的中介效应,外循环层面变量对外贸易水平和外商直接投资水平对地方政府债务影响产业结构合理化没有显著的中介效应;从产业结构高度化方面说,内循环层面变量技术水平、实际利率、城市化率,以及外循环层面变量外商直接投资水平均对地方政府债务影响产业结构高度化有显著的中介效应。今后应更科学地规划地方政府债务的支出投向,通过推动国内、国际市场资源合理配置、促进技术进步、提高城市化水平等途径,更好地推动产业结构优化升级。     

OFDI对我国产业结构的影响：基于灰关联的分析

文章根据2003～2006年我国对外直接投资存量的行业结构和国内产业结构的数据,通过计算灰色绝对关联度、灰色相对关联度和灰色综合关联度,分析了对外直接投资对于国内产业结构调整的影响。结果表明:对外直接投资的行业结构与国内产业结构密切相关,OFDI促进了我国产业结构的优化升级,其中对于采矿业和制造业的投资对产业结构的优化升级有着更为重要的促进作用。     

不同类型对外直接投资对我国产业结构影响的实证研究

文章以我国2004-2011年省际面板数据,运用灰色关联法研究比较不同类型对外直接投资与产业结构的关系。结果表明,我国对外投资与产业结构升级正相关,且技术寻求型对外直接投资对其影响最为显著。与此同时,我国对外直接投资结构类型与产业发展还存在一定程度偏差。基于这一结论,文章提出适当建议,鼓励各级政府、企业加大对外直接投资力度,以适应经济全球化趋势及实现我国经济社会的长远发展。     

中国对外直接投资区位分析:政治因素重要吗?

为了考察政治因素对中国对外直接投资(ODI)区位的重要影响,本文从政治信仰、政治摩擦、国际地位、政治关系定位等四个方面度量政治因素,选取中国对外直接投资的51个东道国、4年204个观测数据进行面板数据分析.计量结果发现国家间政治因素对中国对外直接投资区位有显著的影响,中国对外直接投资偏好与中国有相同政治信仰、政治摩擦较少、国际地位相似、政治关系定位较高的东道国.四个政治因素变量在不同计量方法(PCSE和GLS)下都保持高度显著性和稳健性,说明中国对外直接投资具有鲜明的中国特色.     

对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级之间的关系研究——基于1990～2014年OECD国家的样本数据考察

文章运用1990~2014年OECD34个国家的对外直接投资数据考察对外直接投资与产业结构升级之间的关系,研究结果表明,对外直接投资的增长有利于国内产业结构升级,对外直接投资增加1%,国内产业水平层次将上升0.02%。对外开放度、金融发展水平、技术发展水平、人力资本、外商直接投资都是促进国内产业结构升级的积极因素。最后加入金融与对外直接投资、技术与对外直接投资的交互项进行实证检验,结果表明金融与对外直接投资、技术与对外直接投资的交互项都是促进国内产业结构升级的积极因素。     

对外直接投资的产业选择: 基于产业地位划分法的分析

中国对外直接投资的重要战略目标之一是提升中国产业竞争力和优化产业结构,因此我们有必要站在更高的产业层面,把国内产业战略作为对外直接投资产业选择的出发点。本文根据产业地位划分法定量地将中国行业分为四个产业群,在此基础上分析并提出了四个产业群对外直接投资的作用和基准,为"走出去"产业政策提供了一个分析框架。     

中国对外直接投资现状、机遇和挑战分析

在中国加入WTO这一大背景下,我国对外开放格局不断扩张。文章先从我国对外直接投资存量规模、对外直接投资行业、区域分布和投资主体等几个方面分析了我国对外直接投资的现状。进而对我国"一带一路"下对外直接投资现存机遇和未来面临挑战进行分析,并提出相应对策。     

中国国际投资头寸结构特点及变化趋势

我国国际投资头寸结构存在着严重的问题,该问题主要表现为对外资产收益与对外负债成本不对等以及对外资产负债结构的明显失衡。通过对中、日、德三个国家的国际投资头寸进行比较分析,文章认为中国国际投资头寸的结构未来会出现以下几个方面的变化:第一,储备投资占对外资产的比重将会下降;第二,对外直接投资占对外资产的比重将会上升;第三,证券投资占对外资产和负债的比重都将有所上升;第四,外商直接投资占对外负债的比重将会下降。     

陕西省产业结构的综合评价

陕西经济快速发展，产业结构也随之发生转换。本文首先阐述了陕西省产业结构的现状及资源分布特点，其次用实证分析证实产业结构变动对经济高增长的推动作用。然后，在确定从高度化和合理化对陕西省产业结构进行评价后，构造产业结构高度化和合理化水平的测算指标，利用直接消耗系数表测算陕西省产业结构高度化和合理化水平。最后，根据分析结果，结合陕西省资源分布状况，指出产业结构优化调整方向。     

Outward FDI,industrial structure upgrading and domestic employment: empirical evidence from the Chinese economy and the belt and road initiative

Does outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) create or diminish jobs in the home country? We develop a theoretical model to study the relation between OFDI and domestic employment and to evaluate the roles that industrial structure upgrading and the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) play therein. Using Chinese provincial panel data during the period 2005–2018, and applying simultaneous equation modelling techniques to control for endogeneity, we find that China’s OFDI presents a significant positive impact on domestic employment, and the BRI moderates this impact positively. As a mediating factor, industrial structure upgrading suppresses employment, but the overall employment impact of OFDI remains positive. We construct panel simultaneous equation models to control for the endogeneity problem caused by simultaneity, and find that our main findings are still supported.     

服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据,采用多维固定效应模型,探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响,经研究发现：第一,服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本,促进企业服务贸易出口增长;第二,我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际,具体而言,整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%,同时会提升企业的出口概率;第三,我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性,具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应",其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%,而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应";东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应",其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%,而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

产业集聚对中国企业对外直接投资的影响

文章以2003~2013年中国工业企业数据库为样本,探究产业集聚如何影响企业对外直接投资,结论表明:第一,产业集聚能够促进企业对外直接投资,且这种促进作用对市场寻求型OFDI更大,集聚区内企业对外直接投资的目的主要是开拓市场,并没有造成"产业空心化"的问题。第二,集聚区内对外直接投资的企业越多,企业对外直接投资的可能性越高,表明地区-行业内对外直接投资存在正向"溢出效应"。第三,产业集聚对劳动密集型行业对外直接投资的促进作用要小于对资本密集型行业和高技术密集型行业的作用,并且对民企和中等规模企业"走出去"的促进作用更大,集聚促进对外直接投资主要存在于东部地区。第四,生产率提升是现阶段产业集聚促进企业对外直接投资的主要作用渠道,中国产业集聚可能存在国内产业转移、国外寻求市场的发展道路。     

我国产业结构转型升级与金融结构关系研究

基于1997-2016年的统计数据,运用因子分析的方法提取出衡量金融结构发展的主要指标,并将产业结构转型升级划分为产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化两个层面,将其分别与金融结构指标进行协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,最后建立误差修正模型。实证结果表明,产业结构转型升级与金融结构之间存在因果关系,即促进产业结构转型升级对金融结构的发展具有支持作用,而提升金融结构总量也能对产业结构转型升级有积极的影响。     

The quality of host government and China’s OFDI: Construction of micro-evaluation model of government quality

Government is not only an important participant in the process of national governance, but also a firm executor and supervisor of national policies. In the process of China’s active promotion of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the risks caused by the poor quality of the host government have not been paid enough attention to. This paper builds a micro-evaluation model of government quality from four aspects based on the quality of government expert survey. The results show that although the scores of developed countries are generally higher than those of developing countries, the growth of China’s OFDI in developing countries is higher than in developed countries. In particular, the growth of investment to the member states of The Belt and Road Initiative is more significant. How to realize mutually beneficial achievements between China's overseas investment and host countries with low government quality is an important issue for China.     

Overseas industrial parks and China's outward foreign direct investment

We manually collect data on China's overseas industrial parks from 2007 to 2018, and match it with data on the country’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), using the system generalized method of moment (system GMM) approach to test how constructing overseas industrial parks affects China's OFDI. The results indicate that each new overseas industrial park established significantly increases China's OFDI by 2.89%. And the effect only exists in non-high-income host countries, rather than high-income host countries. We also investigate the effects of different types of industrial parks, and find that agricultural, light industrial, high-tech, comprehensive and heavy industrial parks have significant effects, while logistics parks do not. The mechanism analysis suggests that establishing overseas industrial parks increases China’s OFDI by reducing host countries’ economic and financial risks, and improving bilateral political relations. We further find that establishing overseas industrial parks is more likely to promote OFDI in host countries with imperfect infrastructure, impeded capital flows and low levels of unimpeded information. Our findings shed light on how developing countries could enlarge and stabilize OFDI.     

Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading from the Perspective of Differences among Countries

This paper constructs a two‐sector model to identify the effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in different countries on China's industrial upgrading and conducts an empirical analysis using provincial‐level panel data from 2003–2015. The results show that China can benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developed countries by way of reverse technology spillover. This effect is significant in the eastern region, but not in the central and western regions. China can also benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road through marginal industrial transfer. This effect is more significant in the central region, followed by the western and eastern regions. Our results imply that China should promote technology‐seeking OFDI in developed countries, and enhance efficiency‐seeking OFDI in developing countries, especially in countries along the Belt and Road.     

货币政策对我国证券业产业结构、行为和绩效的作用主辅线分析

本文综述了政策与我国证券产业结构、行为和绩效作用路径方面的研究成果,将货币政策按照作用对象的不同分为两类,对这两类货币政策与证券业结构、行为和绩效进行格兰杰因果检验,进而提出了货币政策对我国证券业产业结构、行为和绩效的作用主辅线。     

The impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on domestic innovation

This paper explores the reversal technology spillovers of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on Chinese firms. Combining a uniquely merged database of Chinese firm-level OFDI and patent data and applying the Propensity-Score-Method-Difference-In-Differences (PSM-DID) methodology, we find a positive causal effect of OFDI on invention patent applications. Some estimations of heterogeneous effects show that OFDI promotes invention patent applications for private enterprises but has mute impact on state-owned and foreign-owned enterprises. With respect to OFDI host countries, OFDI toward developed countries is more effective for promoting innovation activities than developing countries. Three potential transmission channels of OFDI are empirically tested: direct technology purchases, access to high-tech inputs, and international mobility of personnel. Lastly, some policy implications are raised for China’s “Going Out” strategy and the economic development driven by innovation.