Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis

We examine whether foreign and domestic banks in Central and Eastern Europe react differently to business cycles and banking crises. Our panel dataset comprises data of more than 250 banks for the period 1993–2000, with information on bank ownership and mode of entry. During crisis periods domestic banks contracted their credit base, whereas greenfield foreign banks did not. Also, home country conditions matter for foreign bank growth, as there is a significant negative relationship between home country economic growth and host country credit by greenfields. Finally, greenfield foreign banks’ credit growth is influenced by the health of the parent bank.     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.     

Obstacles to a global banking system: “Old Europe” versus “New Europe”

“Old Europe” – the developed nations of continental Europe – averages only about 15% foreign bank ownership, whereas “New Europe” – the transition nations of Eastern Europe – averages about 70%. Similar findings hold elsewhere in the world – developed nations tend to have much lower foreign bank ownership shares than developing nations. We examine the causes of the differences within Europe with an eye toward more general conclusions. Our findings suggest that the low foreign bank shares in “Old Europe” – and perhaps developed nations more generally – may primarily result from net comparative disadvantages for foreign banks and relatively high implicit government entry barriers. The high foreign penetration in “New Europe” – and perhaps developing nations more generally – may be due to net comparative advantages for foreign banks and low government entry barriers, particularly in nations that reduced their state bank ownership.     

Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe

This paper examines the impact of bank ownership on credit growth in developing countries before and during the 2008–2009 crisis. Using bank-level data for countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America, we analyze the growth of banks’ total gross loans as well as the growth of corporate, consumer, and residential mortgage loans. While domestic private banks in Eastern Europe and Latin America contracted their loan growth rates during the crisis, there are notable differences in foreign and government-owned bank credit growth across regions. In Eastern Europe, foreign bank total lending fell by more than domestic private bank credit. These results are primarily driven by reductions in corporate loans. Furthermore, government-owned banks in Eastern Europe did not act counter-cyclically. The opposite is true in Latin America, where the growth of government-owned banks’ corporate and consumer loans during the crisis exceeded that of domestic and foreign banks. Contrary to the case of foreign banks in Eastern Europe, those in Latin America did not fuel loan growth prior to the crisis. Also, there are less pronounced and robust differences in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks during the crisis in Latin America.     

Inherited or earned? Performance of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

In this study, using a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference techniques, we investigate the impact of foreign bank ownership on the performance and market power of acquired banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe. This approach allows us to control for a selection bias as larger but less profitable banks were more likely to be acquired by foreign investors. We show that during 3 years after takeover, banks become more profitable owing to cost minimization and better risk management. They also gained market share due to passing their lower cost of funds to borrowers in terms of lower lending rates. Previous studies failed to note the improvements in the performance of takeover banks because they did not account for the selection bias.     

Multinational banking and the international transmission of financial shocks: Evidence from foreign bank subsidiaries

Using bank-level data on 368 foreign subsidiaries of 68 multinational banks in 47 emerging economies during 1994–2008, we present consistent evidence that internal capital markets in multinational banking contribute to the transmission of financial shocks from parent banks to foreign subsidiaries. We find that internal capital markets transmit favorable and adverse shocks by affecting subsidiaries’ reliance on their own internal funds for lending. We also find that the transmission of financial shocks varies across types of shocks; is strongest among subsidiaries in Central and Eastern Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America; is global rather than regional; and becomes more conspicuous in recent years. We also explore various conditions under which the international transmission of financial shocks via internal capital markets in multinational banking is stronger, including the subsidiaries’ reliance on funds from their parent bank, the subsidiaries’ entry mode, and the capital account openness and banking market structure in host countries.     

How banks go abroad: Branches or subsidiaries?

We examine the factors influencing international banks’ organizational form, using an original database on the operations in Latin America and Eastern Europe of the world’s top 100 banks. We find that banks are more likely to operate as branches in countries that have higher taxes and lower regulatory restrictions on bank entry and on foreign branches. Subsidiary operations are preferred by banks seeking to penetrate host markets by establishing large retail operations. Finally, economic and political risks have opposite effects, suggesting that legal differences in parent banks’ responsibilities associated with branches and subsidiaries are important determinants of banks’ organizational form.     

The impact of foreign bank entry in emerging markets: Evidence from India

This paper uses the entry of foreign banks into India during the 1990s—analyzing variation in both the timing of the new foreign banks’ entries and in their location—to estimate the effect of foreign bank entry on domestic credit access and firm performance. In contrast to the belief that foreign bank entry should improve credit access for all firms, the estimates indicate that foreign banks financed only a small set of very profitable firms upon entry, and that on average, firms were 8 percentage points less likely to have a loan after a foreign bank entry because of a systematic drop in domestic bank loans. Similar estimates are obtained using the location of pre-existing foreign firms as an instrument for foreign bank locations. Moreover, the observed decline in loans is greater among smaller firms, firms with fewer tangible assets, and firms affiliated with business groups. The drop in credit also appears to adversely affect the performance of smaller firms with greater dependence on external financing. Overall, this evidence is consistent with the exacerbation of information asymmetries upon foreign bank entry.     

Efficiency and productivity growth in the banking industry of Central and Eastern Europe

We employ the directional technology distance function and provide estimates of bank efficiency and productivity change across Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and across banks with different ownership status for the period 1998–2003. Our results demonstrate the strong links of competition and concentration with bank efficiency. They also show that productivity for the whole region initially declined but has improved more recently with further progress on institutional and structural reforms. Input-biased technical change has been consistently positive throughout the entire period suggesting that the reforms have induced favorable changes in relative input prices and input mix. However we find evidence of diverging trends in productivity growth patterns across banking industries and that foreign banks outperform domestic private and state-owned banks both in terms of efficiency and productivity gains. Overall, we find that productivity change in CEE is driven by technological change rather than efficiency change.     

The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Reprint of: The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Foreign Banks in Transition Countries: To Whom Do They Lend and How Are They Financed?

We use focused interviews with managers of foreign parent banks and their affiliates in Central Europe and the Baltic States to analyze the small‐business lending and internal capital markets of multinational financial institutions. Our approach allows us to complement the standard empirical literature, which has difficulty in analyzing important issues such as lending technologies and capital allocation. We find that the acquisition of local banks by foreign banks has not led to a persistent bias in these banks' credit supply toward large multinational corporations. Instead, increased competition and the improvement of subsidiaries' lending technologies have led foreign banks to gradually expand into the SME and retail markets. Second, it is demonstrated that local bank affiliates are strongly influenced by the capital allocation and credit steering mechanisms of the parent bank.     

Financial derivatives,opacity, and crash risk: Evidence from large US banks

We test how the use of financial derivatives affects banks’ informational structure and future stock performance based on a sample of large bank holding companies in the US. Using banks’ use of financial derivatives as a proxy for opacity, we find that high level use of interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives are associated with an increase in the synchronicity (R²) of stock price movements with the market index, which indicates less revelation of bank-specific information to the market. This finding is consistent with the prediction of the model developed by Wagner (2007). We document that superior corporate governance tempers these effects. Finally, we find that an increase in the opacity is significantly and positively related to an increase in banks’ future stock price crash risk.     

Foreign bank entry,deregulation and bank efficiency: Lessons from the Australian experience

This study considers the impact of foreign bank entry on banking efficiency in Australia during the post-deregulation period 1988–2001. Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Indices and stochastic frontier analysis, we find foreign banks more efficient than domestic banks, which however did not result in superior profits. Major Australian banks have used size as a barrier to entry to new entrants. Furthermore, bank efficiency has increased post-deregulation and the competition resulting from diversity in bank types was important to prompt efficiency improvements. Finally, the recession of the early 1990s resulted in a distinct shift in the process of efficiency changes.     

The effect of foreign entry and ownership structure on the Philippine domestic banking market

We examine the response of domestic Philippine banks to the relaxation of foreign entry regulations that occurred in the Philippines. We find evidence that foreign bank entry is associated with a reduction in interest rate spreads and bank profits, but only for those domestic banks that are affiliated to a family business group. Foreign entry corresponds more generally with improvements in operating efficiencies, but a deterioration of loan portfolios. Overall, we conclude that foreign competition compels domestic banks to be more efficient, to focus operations due to increased risk, and to become less dependent on relationship-based banking practices.     

The impact of central bank transparency on systemic risk—Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of central bank transparency on systemic risk in emerging banking markets using a sample composed of 34 banks from Central and Eastern Europe for a period spanning from 2005 through 2012. Results indicate a positive and significant relationship between central bank transparency and financial institutions’ contribution to systemic risk. On the other side, increased central bank transparency significantly reduces the idiosyncratic risk of banks. The relationship is influenced by the restrictiveness of regulatory framework. We argue that a more transparent central bank is beneficial for the banking sector from a microprudential perspective. However, it may create incentives for financial institutions to engage in risky activities and through herd behavior may increase individual contribution to the risk of the banking system.     

Which firms engage small, foreign, or state banks? And who goes Islamic? Evidence from Turkey

We study a representative dataset from Turkey that identifies firm–bank connections. Banks in Turkey differ not only in size and nationality, but also in ownership and orientation (non-Islamic versus Islamic)—resulting in at least six distinct bank types. We estimate a multinomial logit of the choice by the firm of bank type. We document a strong correspondence between bank type and firm characteristics that is not always the same as has been documented so far for US datasets. For example, small firms engage large rather than small banks. Young, large, multiple-bank, and industry-diversified firms, that are located in or close to Istanbul, team up with foreign banks. Islamic banks mainly deal with young, multiple-bank, industry-focused and transparent firms.     

Bank concentration and financial constraints on firm-level investment in Europe

This study examines the effect of bank concentration on financing constraints of non-financial firms in 14 European countries between 1992 and 2005. Using firm-level data we analyze financial constraints with the Euler equation derived from the dynamic investment model. We find that with a highly concentrated banking sector firms are less financially constrained. This result is robust to consideration of firm opacity, firm size, and business cycle. Relaxation of financial constraint while greater for firms in less opaque industries also accrues for firms in more opaque industries. Greater bank concentration is associated with less tight financial constraint during both expansions and recessions. Results overall are consistent with an information-based hypothesis that more market power increases banks’ incentives to produce information on potential borrowers. Findings are robust to consideration of country specific institutional factors.     

Foreign Banks in Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence

We study how foreign bank penetration affects financial sector development in poor countries. A theoretical model shows that when domestic banks are better than foreign banks at monitoring soft information customers, foreign bank entry may hurt these customers and worsen welfare. The model also predicts that credit to the private sector should be lower in countries with more foreign bank penetration, and that foreign banks should have a less risky loan portfolio. In the empirical section, we test these predictions for a sample of lower income countries and find support for the theoretical model.     

Have changes in the financial structure affected bank profitability? Evidence for Austria

We examine the impact of changes in the financial structure of the Austrian banking sector over the past 15 years, such as disintermediation, internationalization and privatization, on the profitability of banks. Several proxies based on bank balance sheet data at the micro-level as well as macroeconomic variables are used to capture these changes. The case of Austria is particularly interesting because the opening up of the Austrian banking sector due to EU accession and the strong engagement of Austrian banks in Eastern Europe coincided with the global trend toward deregulation of banking activities. Our estimation results, which are based on dynamic panel regression methods, indicate that disintermediation (a lower percentage of loans over total assets) and higher market concentration in the banking sector had a positive effect on bank profitability, while changes in the ownership structure (privatization and increased foreign ownership) as well as more foreign lending by Austrian banks did not have a clear-cut or significant impact on bank profits.