Visions and scenarios of democratic governance in Asia 2030

Using the Six Pillars foresight workshop process, forty-five Asian political, policy and activist leaders explored the futures of democratic governance. Organized and funded by Oxfam and the Rockefeller Foundation, the organizing hypothesis was that without a change in the nature of governance in Asia, poverty could not truly be uprooted. Changes in governance needed to be imagined and created from the ground up, not just imposed by the past or the elite. Five visions with accompanying causal layered analysis were developed by participants. Generally, these visions focused on more inclusion not just at the level of voting, but in terms of the participatory creation of alternative futures of culture, technology, economy and polity.     

A new state in Europe? Scenarios for Catalan self-determination

Historically, the political structure of Spain has been a source of conflict: peripheral regions as Catalonia and the Basque country have questioned the centralized power of the state and have claimed a higher level of decentralization in view of their distinct history, cultural identity and language. Recently, political and social discontent has escalated in Catalonia, leading to the unilateral announcement of a Catalan self-determination referendum for November 2014. Regardless of political or ethical preferences, it will be necessary to foresee the consequences of this process for Catalonia, Spain and elsewhere. A scenario approach focuses on possible outcomes of the current debate rather than on the arguments put forward in the controversy. Those in favour of Catalan independence have depicted a future for their country with a booming economy that will situate it at currently unattainable levels of prosperity. Opponents of secession argue that Catalonia will become a failed state. These future visions of an independent Catalonia can be described as scenarios, the underlying assumptions and plausibility of which can be analysed. EU membership and the effect of borders on international trade are identified as key variables. The alternative scenarios will also be crucial to evaluate the broader impact of “a new state in Europe”.     

The two visions of post-industrial society

The author discusses and contrasts two different usages of the phrase “post-industrial society”. The independent development of these two usages has culminated in the present distinction between post-industrial society as a technological, affluent, service society, and post-industrial society as a more decentralised and ecologically conscious agrarian society. This new global version of the old Jefferson-Hamilton debate—a political continuum best viewed at right angles to the familiar left-right political spectrum—may become the dominant political struggle of our time. A useful synthesis of the two visions is possible, though, if our intellectual segregation, exemplified by the two visions, can be overcome.     

Visions of development: the inevitable need for alternatives

This paper begins by looking at radical visions of development, such as those of Gandhi and Mao, which developing countries threw up in the twentieth century. But soon these visions were eclipsed by the technological vision of development, now being championed in India by its president, Abdul Kalam. The elites of the world believe that only the technology of the developed west can lead developing nations to the path of development. But they fail to recognise the linkages of this capitalist, technology-driven path with colonial exploitation and war. They overlook the insight, first stated by Rosa Luxembourg, that capitalist expansion presupposes non-capitalist or pre-capitalist territories that provide the markets required for capitalist growth. Thus the major failure of the capitalist technological vision is that it can only be a vision for selected nations, or for a selected few within nations. It can never be a vision for the whole world. For countries like India, therefore, an alternative vision of development is essential. This will require a political act of courage to delink from the developed nations and the development and refinement of alternative technology, much of which already exists. Educating the intelligentsia that a good society does not require the technological pursuit of unlimited prosperity, however, is a big challenge.     

What is science’s crisis really about?

Present day reasoning about difficulties in science reproducibility, science governance, and the use of science for policy could benefit from a philosophical and historical perspective. This would show that the present crisis was anticipated by some scholars of these disciplines, and that diagnoses were offered which are not yet mainstream among crisis-aware disciplines, from statistics to medicine, from bibliometrics to biology. Diagnoses in turn open the path to possible solutions. This discussion is urgent given the impact of the crises on public trust in institutions. We ask whether the present crisis may be seminal in terms of drawing attention to alternative visions for the role of Science in society, and its relevant institutional arrangements. We finish by offering a number of suggestions in this direction.     

Is the future a political economy? Functional analysis of three leading foresight and futures studies journals

This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable selection biases in the modelling of the future in general and the impact of function systems in particular. We performed a word frequency analysis to measure the relative importance of the political system, the economy, science, art, religion, law, sport, health, education, and the mass media to three pertinent journals in the field of futures studies and foresight. The results show that Futures, Long Range Planning, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change have different and changing preferences for the above function systems, an information which authors may find helpful in supporting decisions on where to submit. Our results also show that all journals feature a highly significant bias to the triple helix systems – the political system, the economy, and science. While the latter bias may be adequate to scientific journals, the dominant focus on the political system and the economy as well as the corresponding neglect of the other systems points at implicit presumptions about the importance of the individual systems that may not be in line with their importance to the larger society.     

Towards a political economy of accounting: An empirical illustration of the cambridge controversies

For over a century economics has been dominated by two theoretical positions: classical political economy and the neo-classical economics of marginalism. From these two paradigms have come the major theories of value: the labor theory and the marginalists theory of value. Until recently marginalism has held the center of the stage, however since the Cambridge Controversies and Piero Sraffa's critique of marginalism there has been a revival of interest in classical political economy. One outcome is clear from the Cambridge debates: in so far as accounting relies on marginalism for its theoretical foundations then those foundations are fallacious. This paper reviews some of the controversies and illustrates how accounting ideas are affected by the critique of marginalism. An alternative approach to accounting (based on ideas from political economy) is then explored using evidence from an empirical study of a multinational enterprise.     

Utopian and dystopian thought in climate change science and policy

Climate change policies are increasingly seen as integral to sustainable development policies. This article examines how visions of future society have been employed in climate science and multilateral negotiations. Using elements of utopian and dystopian thought, we have categorized UNFCCC documents, IPCC assessments, and special reports and peer-reviewed climate policy articles. Our results indicate that utopian thinking surfaces with reference to sustainable development and emissions scenarios. Such visions of future society fall into three categories: projections, dystopian thought, and utopian thought. Dystopian thought is mainly evident in the rhetoric of various actors, and is used to spur action or inaction, to avoid either economic catastrophe by acting too fast or ecological catastrophe by not acting fast enough. Utopian elements in climate change science and policy refer to decoupling greenhouse gases and economic growth, evenly distributing the benefits of economic globalization, and smoothing technological development. The present piecemeal invocation of sustainable development concepts in climate science and policy emphasizes the difficulties of integrating environmental, social, and economic concerns. The article concludes that utopian thinking regarding sustainable development could result in more integrated and holistic visions of future society in climate science and policy.     

Is there anybody out there? The place and role of citizens in tomorrow’s smart cities

Imagining tomorrow’s life implies, to a large degree, imagining the kind of cities we will inhabit in the future. In this framework, the smart city is actually a popular vision in discourses on urban development. This paper explores alternative ways in which citizens are positioned within different imaginaries of the smart city. The premise is that most mainstream discourses implicitly assume that smart city projects will empower and improve the lives of citizens. However, their role is often ambiguous. While some visions of the smart city are characterised by the absence of citizen’s voices, others are populated by active citizens operating as urban sensors. Furthermore there are fearful visions of a future in which citizens will be subjugated by technologies that will hamper their freedom. This paper analyses the role of citizens in four alternative smart city imaginaries. The thesis proposed is that all four imaginaries are characterised by citizens playing a subaltern role, and hence the smart city is a relatively poor concept if intended as a model of the urban life of the future.     

Why the far-future matters to democracy today

As the complexity of social and political interaction becomes increasingly over-whelming it is only natural that the pragmatic, technocratic, and expert-driven character of contemporary policy-making is even further consolidated. Though making use of existing knowledge this approach may lead to a deprivation of the democratic debate as the time horizons are shortened and the number of significantly different policies is restrained by the framework within which decisions are to be made.

This article analyses the tension between a more holistic or even ‘utopian’ attitude to policy-making and the trial-and-error piecemeal approach which today seems to be prevailing in the industrial countries. It is argued that a theoretical distinction made by Leszek Kolakowski may help us overcome that tension. The distinction is then applied to the classical stage-heuristic for policy-making leading to a discussion about how the power of far-future visions can be brought into the nexus of democratic deliberation.

The article also examines how different time-frames may cause diverging practical policy-recommendations. Finally, the paradoxical merit of negative visions, as in the dystopian literary genre, is presented.     

Back to the futures: Retrospecting the prospects of smart grid technology

This paper analyzes a ten-year long technology debate, which dealt with the so-called advanced electricity meters in Norway (1998–2008). The debate circled around one central question: should the implementation of this technology be forced through with regulations or should the market decide on pace and character of implementation? In 2008 it was decided that it was best to regulate the implementation. Throughout these 10 years, the debate largely concerned how the future would look with or without regulation. This paper is inspired by “the sociology of expectation”, which assumes that futures are performative. This means that when the future is evoked or imagined, it influences present action and navigation. With this in mind, the paper analyzes future visions and expectations as they were formulated in the technology debate, and traces the role of these futures in the policy debate and for the policy outcome. The paper identifies two modes of future performativity: translative and transformative futures. Translative futures are often mobilized as spokespersons for desired technology or policy trajectories. Here, they work as (a) stagestting devices: sparking debate, enrolling new actors in the debate and generating interest. Further, they work as (b) regulative tools: establishing the need for political decisions, either to realize the content of future visions, or to avoid the contents of alternative futures. Transformative futures do more subtle and gradual work, shifting the practical, symbolic and cognitive meaning of “what” the technology in question might become in the future. As an example, the significance of the advanced electricity meters discussed in this paper changed from being a device filling the knowledge gaps of electricity consumers, to being a central hub in households delivering a range of potential services and being available for a number of different users. In this paper, I describe the gradual shift in understanding of what advanced electricity meters could be as a virtual domestication trajectory.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

内蒙古县域经济发展中的法律环境建设

优化法制环境是县域经济快速发展的基础。本文的目的就是要在政治学和法学的视野之下,介绍内蒙古县域经济发展法制环境现状、分析制约县域经济发展的法制环境因素、提出进一步建立健全县域经济发展的法制环境建议。     

The forfeit of the future

Throughout history, perceptions and experiences in the present have shaped different images of the future. Today, we are living in an increasingly complex world, one which has brought as much consternation as hope. Technology-aided exploitation of the natural environment has made us fearful of irreversible damage to the ecosystem, generating bleak predictions for human survival. As the pace of economic, political, and social change increases, confounding the process of prediction, how do such changes shape our present visions of the future, and how do they contrast with those of previous eras? This article shows how optimistic and pessimistic images of the future evolved from presumptions of unchanging order and apocalyptic destinies to techologically inspired Utopian visions, and how such images now reflect our present anxieties.     

Rent-seeking incentives, corporate political connections, and the control structure of private firms: Chinese evidence

We examine how the rent-seeking incentives of local government motivate private firms¹ listed in China to establish political connections, and whether such connections lead to more concentrated corporate control structures. Our results show that such firms are more likely to establish political connections in regions in which the local economy is less market-oriented or in which the government has more discretion in allocating economic resources. This is consistent with the notion that the presence of incentives for government officials to engage in rent seeking motivates private firms to look for alternative safeguards through political connections. We also find that the controlling owners of politically connected firms tend to concentrate their shareholdings and dominate the board of directors by occupying the position of either chairman or CEO, which supports the conjecture that a concentrated control structure facilitates rent seeking through political connections and allows the controlling owner to retain all of the benefits arising from connections with politicians.     

The construction of the risky individual and vigilant organization: A genealogy of the fraud triangle

This article examines how a vision of organizational fraud has been constructed around a particular technology, the fraud triangle, which was initially developed in the aftermath of the creation of the fraud examination discipline. We examine the genealogy of the fraud triangle and follow various chains of translations underlying its construction. One of the main translation trajectories we uncover presents individuals as vectors of moral riskiness needing to be vigilantly monitored and controlled by the organization. The organization is conceived of as a prime site in which fraud is to be addressed – not annihilated but significantly reduced as long as sufficient care is devoted to establishing layers of vigilance. As such, the fraud triangle redefines social, political and economic relations through a web of translations that both celebrate and normalize the use of organizational surveillance systems to control risk ensuing from the individual’s (alleged) frail morality. In the process, other visions of fraud, focused on the broader role of society, political agendas and powerful economic institutions in engendering and preventing fraud, escape from view.     

The cosmology of accounting in mid 19th-century Thailand

In recent years it has been increasingly recognised that accounting cannot be fully understood without an appreciation of the social and political contexts in which it operates. Religious values and ethical codes form important aspects of the social and political frameworks of most societies. Using the social theory of Marx, Weber, Foucault and Durkheim, accounting researchers have debated the ways and extent to which accounting has been influenced by religion. By analyzing the indigenous accounts of mid 19th-century Siam/Thailand, this article contributes to this debate by demonstrating how accounting was determined by the interaction of socio-religious, economic and political practice. Moreover, it also illustrates how in turn the construction of accounting was constitutive of the Siamese economy, social structure, political governance, and wider Buddhist cosmology. In doing so, this article elaborates an indigenous model of accounting as an alternative to definitions in Marxist, Weberian and other western analytical terms.     

Some Evidence on Executives’ views of Corporate Social Responsibility

This paper draws upon the concepts of organizational legitimacy, political economy of accounting and agency theory, and subsequently combines these with stakeholder analysis, in an attempt to analyse the attitudes towards their perceived social responsibility on the part of the executives of a small sample of large, UK companies.In the conceptual model developed, organizational legitimacy is perceived as a way of examining corporate behaviour, whereby a business is visualized as operating under a mandate from society, withdrawable were the organization be seen not to be doing the things society expects of it. There is, however, an alternative political economy of accounting view, suggesting corporate behaviour might be perceived as more proactive, with company directors attempting to ‘set the agenda’, such as to manipulate societal opinion towards a favourable view of corporate activity.Agency theory is then utilized in an attempt to establish the connection between organizations and the various interest groups with whom they interact, whilst, finally,stakeholder analysis is resorted to as a way of establishing the relevant societal interest groups to which businesses might either be considered ‘accountable’, or alternatively whose views they might wish to ‘manipulate’ favourably regarding their (i.e. corporate) actions.The underpinning theory, as delineated, is then examined for validity via interviews with executives representing eight prominent UK companies in four business sectors. The model outlined enables the nature of perceived accountability/influence by the company to be linked to perceived/manipulated stakeholder expectations of the company, with the tentative conclusion being reached that support can be found for both organizational legitimacy and political economy of accounting perspectives, although which predominates is impossible to determine.     

Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news

We analyze the impact of domestic and US-based news announcements of a large set of economic and policy-related fundamentals on the US dollar versus the Turkish lira exchange rate from 2013 to 2016. Since exchange rate behavior is closely related to political trust, we also incorporate the effect of domestic and global political uncertainty, using country indices based on Google search results. Contrary to previous findings, our results reveal that surprises related to the domestic economy have a greater effect on the exchange rate compared to surprises related to the US economy. Most important are the surprises related to domestic inflation and monetary policy, as well as foreign employment, while political uncertainty plays a minor role. There is also an asymmetry in the market response. Bad news about the US economy has more impact than good news, and good news about the domestic economy has more impact than bad news.     

From vision into action

Utopian thinking, problematic as it can be, is used for imagining alternative visions of the future as a design process. Visioning adds foresight to an active-learning process in which participants share critical reflection, decision and change, as Anticipatory Action Learning. Guidelines, including ethics, are suggested. Once its limitations are recognised, it can be a used for integrating learning in a social system.