欧盟的通货膨胀测度指标及借鉴

通货膨胀测度是当前国际统计学界和经济学界研究的热点问题之一.价格指数是测度通货膨胀最常用的工具,欧盟统计局对欧盟各成员国消费者价格指数的编制方法进行了协调,开发出了用于测度通货膨胀的消费者价格协调指数(HICP).本文介绍了HICP的背景、发展过程以及HICP的指数体系,对HICP的基本框架与编制方法、HICP与各成员国CPI编制方法的比较等问题进行了研究,得出了对下一步准确测度通货膨胀水平和趋势的启发性结论.     

基于SVAR模型的金融形势指数

本文运用SVAR模型,构建了包括真实短期利率、房地产价格指数、真实有效汇率指数、真实股权价格指数以及货币因素在内的金融形势指数FCI,分别对以真实货币供应量和真实贷款余额作为货币因素的两种FCI与通货膨胀指标CPI的关系做了实证研究。结果表明,基于贷款余额的FCI对CPI有更加良好而稳定的预测作用,可以作为货币政策制定的依据之一进行观察。     

房地产价格指数研究现状与前景

全面考察了现阶段国内外编制房地产价格指数常用的四种指数理论,并对这四种理论的优缺点进行了对比。从全国和各地方房地产价格指数中挑选比较有影响的中房指数和全国70个大中城市房地产价格指数作为研究的对象。从指数内容、数据来源和指数计算模型三个方面对两种房地产价格指数进行比较。在以上研究的基础上,探索构建云南省房地产价格指数系统及编制方法。     

综合指数与平均指数分析

统计在研究社会经济现象的数量变动关系中广泛地应用着各种指数，这不仅是因为指数方法简便易行，更主要的是因为指数说明问题全面、深刻。在指数方法论中应主要研究总指数的两种基本形式——综合指数与平均指数的编制和计算问题。故本文打算从综合指数与平均指数的基本计算原理、编制原则和方法等方面，谈一些自己的粗浅看法。     

价格指数编制中的Hedonic质量调整方法研究

质量调整是价格指数构建中最重要的实践问题之一,它是决定价格指数精确性的关键问题,同时也是目前价格指数编制中最难以解决的问题.统计学家和经济学家提出了许多不同的质量调整方法,其中,Hedonic质量调整方法受到了广泛关注,越来越多的统计机构在编制价格指数时开始使用Hedonic质量调整方法.本文考察了Hedonic方法的理论框架和实施步骤,介绍了Hedonic方法在国外价格指数编制中的应用情况,从多个角度对Hedonicp方法进行了分析与讨论,并对Hedonic方法在中国的应用前景进行了探讨.     

旅游竞争力指数编制研究

在借鉴国内外学者对旅游竞争力定义、评价和比较的基础上,依据统计指数的相关理论,提出旅游竞争力指数理论的框架体系以及旅游消费指数、旅游供给指数和旅游竞争力指数的编制原理;并指出其经济意义是比较、度量旅游经济的发展现状和发展水平一种手段,同时也为旅游竞争力比较提供一种方法。     

中国名义货币状况指数的构建

构建和监测货币状况指数是将汇率纳入货币政策框架中的一种可行方式.文章在系统分析汇率和货币供应量等变量对国内消费者价格水平的价格传递链条的基础上,运用VAR方法来构建了2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革以来的中国名义货币状况指数.研究表明,M1和名义有效汇率在名义MCI中的权重之比为1:1.17,在此基础上构建的名义MCI与消费价格指数走势是高度吻合的.从货币政策立场指示器和对通货膨胀进行监测的角度看,我国央行应关注并定期发布货币状况指数.     

关于经济指数的权数问题

在编制经济指数时,怎样选择权数(即同度量系数),是一个很重要的问题。对于这一问题的解决方法,统计书籍中有这样一个原则,那就是:在编制质量指标的指数时(如编制价格指数、劳动生产率指数等),应该以报告期的数量指标为权救(如以报告期的销售量、报告期的工人人数等为权数);而编制数量指标的指数时(如编制销售量指数、产量指数等),应该以基期的质量指标为权数(如以基期的价格、成本等为权数)。这个原则,现在已经获得统计学界的广泛承认。     

CPI和股市指数:基于VAR模型的协整分析

2007-2008年我国股市发生剧烈波动,CPI持续走高,对我国宏观经济和金融稳定产生巨大影响,因此很有必要研究CPI和股市的关系.本文使用1997年1月-2008年3月的数据分析了CPI和股市指数的关系,得到以下结论:CPI与上证综合指数之间存在稳定的协整关系,而CPI与深证综合指数之间不存在的协整关系.然后分析了CPI对上证指数的脉冲响应函数,表明CPI对上证指数的冲击在短期内较大,长期内并不明显.     

主成分分析重复销售房地产指数构造研究

随着我国房地产市场的不断扩大,房地产价格对社会生产和生活的影响越来越明显。准确的房地产价格指数对于提高政府经济决策质量,合理引导社会预期和公众需求,减少房地产开发投资的盲目性都具有重要的意义。重复销售法解决了房地产指数编制过程中保证样本同质性的问题,是国际上流行的指数编制方法。主成分分析（PCA）指数是根据经济变量和金融变量计算的重复销售指数。指数的构造过程包括房屋利润率的确定、经济和金融变量利润率的确定、因素的建立、指数的构造等四步。     

Retrospective Computations of Price Index Numbers: Theory and Application

Due to outdated weighting information, a Laspeyres-based consumer price index (CPI) is prone to accumulating upward bias. Therefore, the present study introduces and examines simple and transparent revision approaches that retrospectively address the source of the bias. They provide a consistent long-run time series of the CPI and require no additional information. Furthermore, a coherent decomposition of the bias into the contributions of individual product groups is developed. In a case study, the approaches are applied to a Laspeyres-based CPI. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions. The proposed revision approaches are adoptable not only to most national CPIs but also to other price-level measures such as the producer price index or the import and export price indices.     

我国粮食价格与CPI关系研究

本文利用1998年1月-2010年10月的月度CPI数据和粮食批发价格指数对粮食价格和CPI的关系进行了定性和定量分析。实证结果表明,两者之间存在长期和短期关系,从长期来看,粮食价格每上涨1%会使CPI上涨0.336%;从短期来看,粮价对CPI有滞后1期的影响,CPI对粮价有滞后3期的影响。综合考虑影响粮食价格的国际效应、供给效应、市场预期效应和政策效应,未来几个月我国粮价将有所上涨,但涨幅不会很大。     

Demand system estimation in the absence of price data: an application of Stone-Lewbel price indices

This article evaluates the feasibility of estimating a system of demand equations in the absence of price information using the approach developed by Lewbel (1989). Stone-Lewbel (SL) price indices for commodity groups are constructed using information on the budget shares and the Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) of the goods comprising the commodity groups, which allows for household-level prices to be recovered. This study evaluates how susceptible are elasticities and marginal effects estimates from traditional parametric demand systems to the CPI used in the construction of the SL prices. To do this, three alternative regional CPIs are considered for the construction of the SL prices: monthly, quarterly and a constant (unity) price index. Elasticities and marginal effect estimates are computed for eight food commodity groups using the Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) model as the parametric demand system and data from the United States Consumer Expenditure Survey. The estimates proved to be robust to the alternative regional CPIs considered in the construction of SL price indices, even to the absence of one. Hence, the results suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate a demand system even in the absence of price information.     

Should the Cost-of-living Index Provide the Conceptual Framework for a Consumer Price Index?

In some countries, the cost-of-living (COL) index serves as the conceptual framework for the CPI, but it has been rejected in others. This paper reviews issues that have arisen in the statistical agency debate and in the economics literature on the COL index, including rhetorical matters which have influenced the debate. I contend that COL theory is useful as a decision-making framework in estimating components of the CPI, and that COL index theory provides appropriate guidance for measuring consumer inflation, contrary to the view that has been adopted for the European HICP and expressed by an advisory committee for the RPI.     

Calculating the Candy Price Index: A Classroom Inflation Experiment

In this classroom experiment, students develop a price index based on candy-purchasing decisions made by members of their class. They use their index to practice calculating inflation rates and to consider the strengths and weaknesses of the consumer price index (CPI). Instructors can use the experiment as an introduction to the topic of inflation and how it is measured. The exercise also provides a concrete example of the sources of bias in the CPI, promoting discussion of the measures the Bureau of Labor Statistics has taken to reduce bias. The experiment, including follow-up discussion, fits into a 50-minute class period. The authors and other professors have used the exercise in introductory and intermediate macroeconomics courses, in classes of 10 to 135 students.     

消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数:谁带动谁?

消费者价格指数(CPI)与生产者价格指数(PPI)是相互联系并有显著区别的概念。两者之间的因果关系或非因果关系有多种可能情形。本文对中国消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)2001年1月至2008年7月数据的格兰杰因果检验结果显示,在所考察时期内,消费者价格指数是生产者价格指数变动的格兰杰原因,后者经过1—3个月左右的时滞对前者的变动作出反应。这个结果很可能意味着,在所考察时期内,在影响以消费者价格指数(CPI)来衡量的国内通货膨胀中,需求方面的因素相对大于供给方面的作用,尽管需求因素和供给因素都共同地影响了国内通货膨胀的走势。     

消费者价格指数能反映生活成本吗 基于城镇各收入阶层食品生活成本估计

本文基于超级指数和可变偏好效用函数方法构建了1997-2011年中国城镇各收入阶层家庭食品消费生活成本指数,并在此基础上将各阶层生活成本指数与其消费者价格指数进行对比,检验消费者价格指数对生活成本的反映能力。样本期间内消费者价格指数与生活成本指数比较接近,可以较好地反映生活成本的变化。基于超级指数方法的结果显示,样本期间内替代偏差与家庭收入负相关,与通货膨胀正相关,而由于偏好改变所造成的偏差在绝对值水平上则与收入水平正相关。     

全国及各省居民消费物价指数变化的同步性分析——基于2000年1月-2006年6月月度数据的一个比较

本文主要基于月度数据使用滤波分析方法分析省际CPI的同步性.指出:大部分省CPI与全国基本平行运行,而且随着全国市场一体化程度的不断提高,同步性会进一步增强,产生差异的将是CPI的波动幅度和个别省运行上的领先或者滞后.因此,我国宏观调控必须坚持全国一盘棋,有效调控总量.同时,在尊重市场规律的前提下,在科学的范围内谨慎探索"突出重点,有保有压,区别对待"的实践.     

Post‐Laspeyres: The Case for a New Formula for Compiling Consumer Price Indexes

Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are commonly compiled at the higher (weighted) level using Laspeyres‐type arithmetic averages. This paper questions the suitability of such formulas and considers two counterpart alternatives that use geometric averaging, the Geometric Young and the (price‐updated) Geometric Lowe. The paper provides a formal decomposition and understanding of the differences between the two. Empirical results are provided using United States CPI data. The findings lead to an advocacy of quite simple variants of a hybrid formula suggested by Lent and Dorfman that use the same data as Laspeyres‐type indexes but substantially reduce their bias.     

Scenarios for a redistribution of unpaid work in the Netherlands

The consumer price index (CPI) is used in the United States to measure changes in the cost of living. Since the CPI is used to index the official U.S. poverty guidelines and to establish eligibility criteria for various public assistance programs, a change in the methodology used to calculate the CPI would impact the accuracy of poverty statistics and, more importantly, poor families' access to public assistance. Since the majority of these poor families are headed by women, the CPI becomes a critical issue for feminist economics. In December 1996 the United States Senate Finance Committee's Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index issued its final report which concluded that use of the consumer price index results in widespread substantial overindexing. This paper uses the basic needs budgets (BNB) to evaluate changes in the cost of living for low-income families. The author compares the cost of the BNBs for single-parent families in 1983 and 1996 and finds that the cost of the bundle of goods and services included in the BNBs has increased faster than the CPI. The author finds similar results for two-parent families.