试论发展消费信贷扩大国内需求

内需不足,消费增长缓慢,是现阶段经济发展的核心问题。而消费信贷市场的开发,有利于刺激消费,扩张有效需求,从而有利于实现国家宏观调控目标。本文分析了现阶段国内需求不足的原因,并从我国消费信贷的现状出发,找出了扩大国内需求的思路和途径,提出了消费信贷的政策支持和发展建议。     

论消费信贷对经济增长的影响

消费信贷是我国金融事业中较有发展潜力的一个领域,对拉动我国内需及推动整个国民经济增长的作用日益显现.文章主要从理论和实证两个角度来分析我国的消费信贷对经济增长的积极作用,也指出了过度消费信贷的一些负面影响,提倡适度消费,最后就如何发展消费信贷,扩大消费需求提出了一些政策建议.     

收入与消费信贷需求的关系研究

本文分析了收入与消费信贷需求之间的关系。在确定性情况下,消费信贷需求主要取决于当期收入与持久收入之间的关系。如果考虑到收入的不确定性,则对未来收入的预期以及收入的波动性都会对消费信贷需求产生影响。在对不同消费者的信贷需求进行加总时,收入分配也是决定总体消费信贷需求的重要因素。     

我国消费信贷对居民消费需求影响实证研究

基于2005-2013年的季度样本数据,运用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数,对我国消费信贷规模和居民消费需求的关系进行了动态性研究。结果表明,消费信贷短期内会对消费需求产生滞后的抑制作用,但从长期来看,消费信贷会对消费需求产生稳定的正向效应。正确把握两者之间的互动关系,才能制定合理的策略,有效提高居民的消费需求。     

给消费信贷加把火

促进消费需求增长是我国今后较长时期内的一项重要工作。政府在促进消费需求增长过程中，除了制订相应的消费政策支持外，消费信贷是一项非常重要的举措。但要真正达到启动消费信贷，提高居民消费水平以促进当前较为疲软的国内需求，一些制约我国消费信贷发展的问题及矛盾必须尽快得到解决。     

论消费信贷应当缓行

我国目前存在的消费市场疲软的根源在于有效供给不足,而不是有效需求不足。当前,如果一味强调降低储蓄,扩大即期消费,则后果可能得不偿失。即使能够在一定程度上起到增加即期消费的作用,也会给未来增加更大的消费不足的可能。据此,我们认为我国目前存在的主要问题不是消费不足而是生产不足,要解决这一问题关键在于弥补“生产断层”而不是“消费断层”。     

提倡消费信贷 提高有效需求

3月3日,中国人民银行发布了《关于开展个人消费信贷指导意见》,要求有关金融机构要加大消费信贷投入,为消费者提供全方位的金融服务.     

浅析消费信贷效应

东南亚金融危机爆发以来,各国都受到了一定的冲击。尤其对于处在国企改革重要关头的中国,经济发展速度的放慢,迫使我们进一步探讨刺激经济增长的因素。一、经济增长的关键是有效消费需求根据凯恩斯理论,经济衰退的主要原因是有效需求不足。因此,如何刺激有效需求就成为经济增长的关键。需求分为消费需求、投资需求和出口需求。在过去的短缺经济时代,政府调控经济运行的主要方式是调控投资,而消费需求则是随投资需求的变化而变化。但随着改革的深化,消费品市场逐步向买方市场转变,消费需求的作用开始越来越重要。在市场化的过程中,…     

中国国内消费需求拉动与GDP增长

长期以来,中国GDP的增长过渡依赖对外出口,而国内消费对GDP增长所占的比例却很小,因而导致了中国经济结构失衡。阻碍国内消费的主要原因是居民收入水平与基本消费水平不成比例,保障机制不健全。应坚持扩大内需的方针,让拉动经济增长的三驾马车齐头并进,使广大人民群众能更多地分享到改革的成果。     

消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应分析

本文选取中国和美国1990-2004年消费信贷与居民消费的数据,对消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应进行分析比较,结果表明,在现阶段,由于我国经济改革造成的不确定性预期增强、居民贫富差距扩大及消费的挤出效应等原因,消费信贷对居民消费的刺激作用很不显著.扩大消费需求的根本举措在于提高居民收入水平,减少收入差距,完善社会保障体系.     

An Empirical Investigation of Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the motivations for a firm's demand for trade credit. Demand for credit is modelled as a function of transaction costs motivations, financing motivations, operational considerations, seller compliance issues and supplier marketing, whilst controlling for the firm's business environment and for firm characteristics such as size and industry. This paper builds on previous studies by considering a wider range of factors that can affect trade credit demand holistically on a single sample. It appears that the use of trade credit is widespread, and that it is generally perceived as an important short term financing option, although the availability of trade credit is not a major influence on supplier choice. The level of a firm's trade credit demand is found to be significantly influenced by transaction costs, financing, operational issues, marketing activities by suppliers, the firm's investment in trade debtors and firm size.     

供给结构与我国经济内外需平衡发展分析

1997年亚洲金融危机以来,内外需平衡发展就开始成为我国经济发展经常关注的一个重要问题。特别是随着2008年美国次贷危机的爆发,以及随后欧盟一些国家债务危机的蔓延,内外需不平衡发展对于我国经济发展的影响问题更加突出。本文从供给结构的研究视角出发,分析了改革开放以来我国供给结构与内外需平衡发展问题的内在联系;提出产业供给能力是社会经济发展的基本条件,产业供给结构是国际贸易发展的基础。本文认为供给结构是我国内外需平衡发展与否的关键问题,并据此提出我国经济内外需平衡发展的路径与对策。     

消费信贷与扩大内需：问题与对策

在买方市场条件下，有效需求不足将是制约经济增长的主要障碍，因而，扩大需求也就成为了当前经济工作中的中心任务。扩大需求．必须刺激居民的即期消费，将居民的未来支出提前到现在，这样，大力发展消费信贷就成为推动这种即期消费的基本途径。消费信贷是市场发展到一定阶段的必然产物，因此，中国必须调整过去在抑制消费政策导向下制定的限制消费信贷、单一发展生产信贷的不合理信贷政策，以推动中国信用消费的长期稳步发展。     

通货膨胀与消费需求——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

认识通货膨胀对消费的影响对于理解中国扩大内需的政策有重要意义。本文通过建立一个分省面板数据的回归模型,系统考察了通货膨胀对消费的影响。结果发现,通货膨胀与最终消费率负相关,通货膨胀抑制了最终消费在GDP中的占比;从通胀对消费结构的影响看,通货膨胀降低了农村消费和耐用品消费在最终消费中的占比;通货膨胀并没有显著提高总体名义消费水平的增长,但高通胀有利于城市名义消费水平的增长。从刺激消费的角度而言,控通胀的政策有利于稳定消费,从而稳定经济增长。     

Consumer cosmopolitanism: Review and replication of the CYMYC scale

Extant marketing literature mainly focuses on explaining why consumers might prefer domestic products and refrain from buying foreign products but, however, is weak in explaining why consumers might intentionally opt for foreign products. Against this background, consumer cosmopolitanism has gained increasing attention as a potentially relevant consumer characteristic for explaining foreign product preference and choice. However, empirical evidence on the impact of consumer cosmopolitanism on consumption behavior remains scarce. This paper identifies the absence of an appropriate measurement instrument as a main reason for this lack of empirical studies by providing (a) a review of cosmopolitanism scales used in other research fields, and (b) a replication with extensions study of the CYMYC scale, the only consumer cosmopolitanism scale currently available. The findings highlight a need for a new scale to measure the consumer cosmopolitanism construct. To stimulate further research in this direction, the paper proposes a conceptual definition of consumer cosmopolitanism along with a nomological network to guide the scale development process.     

Roots of Marketing and Consumer Research at the University of Chicago1

The marketing and consumer research fields began to flourish in the late 1940s after World War II. Social Research, Inc. was founded in 1946 by members of the University of Chicago's faculty. Students at the University's interdisciplinary Committee on Human Development and the Departments of Sociology, Anthropology, and Psychology worked at Social Research, Inc., pioneering the application of behavioral methods of research to problems of business and other organizations. This paper traces the transmission of knowledge from the academic setting to the business environment. It notes especially the influence of members of the university faculty and their theories of human behavior on the emerging fields devoted to the study of consumption and culture.     

Consumer response to economic crisis and lessons for marketers: The Turkish experience

Private consumption is the largest component of gross domestic product (GDP). It has a substantial impact on the speed of recovery from an economic crisis. This paper aims to examine the behavior of consumers, firms, and government in Turkey in response to the recent global economic crisis. Turkey was one of the few countries that emerged from the economic downturn relatively quickly. The demographics of consumers, the solidity of financial sector, and the government policies led to a speedy recovery from the crisis through an increase in consumption expenditures. During the initial shock, consumers switched to cheaper goods and decreased consumption expenditures in total. The government emphasized that the impact of crisis would be limited. The opening of credit lines, the temporary reduction in value-added tax and special consumption tax on certain commodities, aggressive marketing campaigns, and a rosy future drawn by chambers of commerce and NGOs in specific promotional activities were influential in increasing consumption. This paper discusses the consumer response to and the marketing lessons derived from this experience.     

A Credit Risk Model for Consumer Loan Portfolios

ABSTRACT

We propose a credit risk model for consumer loan portfolios in Brazil. Consumer profiles and the risk classification of credit operations are used to segment the portfolios. Credit loss distributions for each segment are selected and used in a Monte Carlo simulation process to generate the loss distribution of the portfolios. The dependence among the credit losses in the different segments of the portfolios is modeled through an elliptical copula function. Statistical tests are done and show that the proposed model is adequate to represent credit loss distributions in consumer credit in Brazil.

RESUMEN.Proponemos un modelo para los créditos de riesgo de la cartera de préstamos al consumidor en Brasil. Los perfiles del consumidor y la clasificación del riesgo de las operaciones crediticias se utilizan para segmentar la cartera. La distribución de las pérdidas de los créditos de cada segmento se seleccionan e utilizan en un proceso de simulación Monte Carlo, para generar la distribución de las pérdidas de la cartera. La dependencia entre la pérdida del crédito en los diferentes segmentos de la cartera se modela utilizando una función de cópula elíptica. Las pruebas estadísticas se realizan y muestran que el modelo propuesto es apropiado para representar la distribución de la pérdida de crédito en el ramo de los créditos a los consumidores en Brasil.

RESUMO.Propomos um modelo de crédito de risco para portfólios de empréstimos ao consumidor, no Brasil. O perfil dos comsumidores e a classificação de risco das operações de crédito são usados para segmentar o portfólio. As distribuições de perda de crédito para cada segmento são selecionadas e usadas num processo de simulação Monte Carlo, para gerar a distribuição da perda do portfólio. A dependência entre a perda do crédito nos diferentes segmentos do portfólio é determinada por uma função de cópula elítica. Testes estatísticos foram realizados e demonstram que o modelo proposto é adequado, para representar as distribuições de perda de crédito no crédito ao consumidor, no Brasil.     

扩大内需下保障房的最优供给区间研究——基于财富效应的分析视角

本文通过引入保障房的因素,对跨期消费模型进行拓展,发现理论上存在保障房的最优供给区间,接着利用我国2000-2009年的省际面板数据,基于Hansen面板门槛模型进行实证分析,得出结论:能发挥财富效应,进而有助于扩大内需的保障房覆盖率的最优区间下限为9.37%,上限为19.22%。本文对区域进一步的分析发现,东部地区的大部分省份难以超越保障房最优供给区间的下限门槛,处于保障乏力的状态,而西部地区的大部分省份则恰好处于这个最优区间内。因此,除了对地方政府的保障房建设进行激励外,还应该创新保障房的投融资和建设模式,充分调动民间资本的积极性,这样才能跨越保障房供给的最低门槛。