Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

Mapping the intellectual structure of modern technology management

The paper explores and maps the intellectual structure of technology management studies from 1987 to 2006 by analysing 22,336 cited references of 1328 articles in the SSCI and SCI databases. Bibliometrics and social network analysis techniques are used to research the intellectual structure of the technology management literature. Six threads emerged in this study: (1) core competence and competitive advantage, (2) information system planning and changes, (3) the management of innovation and organisations, (4) technology management approaches, (5) technology strategy and (6) organisational learning and knowledge management. This study provides a systematic and objective means of determining the knowledge nodes in the development of technology management research.     

从一个海外工程项目看承包商的风险管理

国际工程承包是一项充满风险的事业.由于国外承包工程涉及到工程所在国的政治和经济形势,有关进出口、资金和劳务的政策和法律规定以及外汇管制方法等等,而且还可能遇到不熟悉的地理和气候条件、不同的技术要求和规范以及与当地政府部门的关系等问题,这就使国际承包商常常处于纷繁复杂且变化多端的环境中,因此可能发生风险的因素也极为广泛.以下就从笔者所经历的一个海外工程项目来看国际工程承包商在项目管理过程中的风险管理.     

动态知识管理能力与创新绩效关系研究:创新开放度调节效应

基于中小科技企业治理特征与开放式创新环境,构建了中小型科技企业动态知识管理能力与创新绩效的关系模型,分析了创新开放度的调节效应。通过对京津和江浙沪地区高新技术开发集群的129家企业的调研,实证检验了相关研究假设。结果表明,中小科技企业动态知识管理能力各维度对创新绩效各维度有不同程度的影响,创新开放度能显著正向调节动态知识管理能力对创新绩效的影响效应。     

A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.     

大数据赋能企业知识管理创新机理与路径研究——基于华为案例

大数据时代呈指数级增长的数据量和不断涌现的技术工具对企业知识管理提出了新要求，因此探究大数据如何赋能企业知识管理创新对提升企业核心竞争力具有重要意义。采用扎根分析法，以华为公司为案例，对大数据赋能知识管理创新的内在机理与演变路径进行系统研究，提出“创新环境-创新主体-创意开发”的理论分析框架，在此基础上结合企业知识管理演变特征，将企业知识管理创新路径划分为3个阶段，即外源数据赋能的知识积累阶段、内源数据赋能的知识交流阶段和内外源数据联合赋能的知识创新阶段，深入分析每个阶段大数据赋能企业知识管理创新的内在机理，为推进大数据时代企业知识管理创新提供理论支持与决策参考。     

Households technology adoption and use patterns: the case of digital terrestrial television in six Italian regions

The paper explores the technology adoption and use patterns of households. Many theories are focusing on the adoption; however, some studies show that the adoption mechanisms in households are still unknown. Before any sound theoretical proposals could be made, additional exploratory studies in this field are necessary to discover the relations between use behaviour and adoption determinants. To demonstrate this, our exploratory study uses the case of digital terrestrial television (DTT) introduction in Italy. The study incorporates exploratory factor analysis to identify dimensions of DTT adoption and use. These dimensions were further investigated through their relations with demographic variables of primary decision-makers in households. We found that DTT adoption and use relate to household characteristics in a relatively complex way, but clear systematic use patterns are evident. These patterns can serve as an empirical evidence to further develop theories in this field.     

演化视角下全产业链创新网络结构及核心企业行为对创新绩效的影响——以苹果公司网络为例

从理论上分析了全产业链创新网络结构特点以及核心企业行为模式与创新绩效的关系,提出相关假设;从开放性的2个维度,即开放广度和开放深度量化核心企业开放式创新的行为模式。依据偏最小二乘法,将结构和行为模式的表征变量作为自变量,创新绩效的4个表征变量作为因变量,进行交叉检验;最后选取1个主成分进行回归分析,检验理论假设。     

科技人才伦理管理对创新绩效影响研究

文章基于科技人才伦理管理构成维度及其对高新企业创新绩效影响的理论假设模型,对北京中关村42家高新企业实际调研数据的统计分析和对高新企业科技人才伦理管理问题进行研究,报告了高新企业科技人才伦理管理构成维度及其对创新绩效影响的现状。通过对科技人才伦理管理构成维度的调查,运用因子分析方法,探测出高新企业科技人才伦理管理由公平公正、民主参与、学习创新3个维度构成;通过对科技人才伦理管理与创新绩效关系的调查,运用相关分析方法,验证了科技人才伦理管理对高新企业创新绩效的正向影响,进而分析了科技人才伦理管理各维度对创新绩效的不同影响。文章反映了高新企业开展科技人才伦理管理的重要性问题,取得了高新企业科技人才伦理管理由3个维度构成及其对创新绩效具有正向影响的研究成果,给出了高新企业应该重视和积极开展科技人才伦理管理的宝贵建议。     

技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响：环境动荡性与竞争敌对性的联合调节效应

利用突破性技术创新实现“弯道超车,后发制人”是我国经济高质量发展的必由之路。突破性技术创新的成功离不开创新行为的实施,如何促进突破性技术创新行为成为理论和实践上亟待解决的问题。探索技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响,分析环境动荡性对技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为间关系的调节作用,以及竞争敌对性对环境动荡性调节作用的调节效应。研究表明,技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为具有显著正向影响,环境动荡性在技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为的关系中起正向调节作用;竞争敌对性能够强化环境动荡性的正向调节作用。     

跨国公司知识溢出、组织间学习与中国企业的管理创新:基于服务业的一个研究框架

在对企业国际化经营、知识管理、服务管理等领域的相关文献进行评述的基础上,构建了"知识溢出—组织间学习—管理创新"的分析框架,并对分析框架进行简要分析,探讨了跨国服务企业知识溢出、组织间学习与本土服务企业管理创新的互动关系。对于服务业跨国公司知识溢出和中国企业的管理创新问题,这一新框架承接了已有的研究成果,提出了新的研究方法,拓展了新的研究空间。     

管理者创造力与组织绩效：创新机会识别的中介作用和积极情绪的调节作用

依据创造力理论和资源优势理论,尝试性构建考虑创新机会识别中介作用、积极情绪调节作用的管理者创造力与组织绩效关系模型,并基于187份有效问卷,对提出的假设关系进行实证验证。研究结果表明,就总体样本而言,管理者创造力对组织绩效具有正向影响;创新机会识别在管理者创造力与组织绩效的关系中起部分中介作用;积极情绪正向调节管理者创造力与组织绩效的关系。就分组样本而言,在国有企业中,创新机会识别在管理者创造力与组织绩效的关系中并未发挥中介作用,但积极情绪在二者关系中具有显著正向调节作用;在私营企业中,创新机会识别在管理者创造力与组织绩效的关系中具有完全中介作用,但积极情绪在二者关系中并未发挥调节作用。     

基于多中心治理理论的农业科技创新

我国提出的建设社会主义新农村,实现城乡统筹发展是一项长期而艰巨的社会系统性工程,以科技创新作为重要推动的手段,将成为农业发展的根本出路。但农业科技创新也需要有新的治理模式,传统的以城市政府为中心的单中心治理模式由于其内在的制度性缺陷严重影响了科技长入经济的进程。城市、农村以及各级政府、市场和城乡社会三维框架下的多中心治理模式打破了单中心制度安排中最高权威单一性的权力格局,由多个相对独立的发展主体构成的治理网络承担起了农业科技创新区域内的管理和服务职责,并显示出一定的优势。应通过借鉴多中心治理理论中的合理内核,通过构建一种政府引导、市场运作、农民为主、社会参与的＂多元共治＂模式,来推动农业科技创新的顺利进行。     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

Information technology investment strategies: a review and synthesis of the literature

In spite of high importance of information technology (IT) investments, managers do not have sufficient guidelines to formulate IT investment strategy of a firm. In this paper, we review the literature to determine the factors that influence the IT investment strategy. The concept of IT investment strategy so far considered two domains: intensity and proactiveness; we enhance this concept by adding the domain of investment focus. Through this review, we made an attempt to answer three strategic questions related to IT investments: (i) level of investment that a firm should make in IT, that is, investment intensity; (ii) areas of firm where these investments should be more focused, that is, investment focus; and (iii) timing of investment, that is, whether to be an early mover in adopting IT or whether to invest relatively late compared to competitors.     

时空压缩下研发要素流动是否提升了区域绿色创新效率

基于地区高铁通勤时间构建空间权重矩阵,采用空间杜宾模型（SDM）和面板门槛模型（PTR）实证检验时空压缩下研发要素流动对区域绿色创新效率的影响。研究发现：高铁开通后,研发要素流动对绿色创新效率的促进作用显著增强,且研发人员流动的直接效应更显著;时空压缩下研发要素流动对绿色创新效率的影响存在地区异质性,东部地区因创新资源集聚程度和能力水平较高,更易从中获益,而西部地区受限于地理位置和经济发展阶段,其研发要素流动对绿色创新效率的影响偏弱;研发人员流动、财政科技支出、基础设施建设和市场化水平4种调节因素均表现出门槛特征,且呈现出梯度式增强。     

管理层能力与企业创新价值关系研究——对2007-2019年A股上市公司的实证分析

创新不能仅局限于数量积累,更应注重价值提升。为深层次探讨企业创新与管理层能力间的关系,以2007-2019年A股上市公司为研究样本,采用数据包络分析法衡量管理层能力,并构建其与企业创新数量及创新价值间的关系模型,重点考察管理层能力对企业创新价值的影响。结果发现：①总体而言,管理层能力提升虽然会使专利数量减少,但却能够促使专利价值增值,即提升企业创新价值;②将管理层分为低能力组和高能力组发现,在低能力组,能力提升会增加非发明专利数量;在高能力组,能力提升将减少各类专利数量。这说明,低能力管理层注重“面子工程”,而高能力管理层更注重真才实干;③管理层能力对企业创新价值的促进作用在CEO任期长和国有产权企业中体现得较为明显。研究结论对企业创新价值提升具有一定启示作用。     

基于创新力场强的区域中心城市创新生态圈辐射效应研究——以长三角城市群为例

为破解区域中心城市创新生态圈创新力场强分布不均匀导致区域创新不平衡的问题，实现区域协同创新，基于断裂点模型、创新力场强模型和创新辐射力模型，对长三角城市群区域中心城市创新生态圈辐射效应进行实证研究。结果表明：长三角城市群创新力场强整体以“沪-苏-宁-合-杭-沪”为边界呈圆形网络分布，包括上海创新辐射带、苏州创新辐射带、杭州创新辐射圈、南京创新辐射带以及合肥创新辐射圈等五大核心辐射区；创新力场强分布不均匀，靠近核心辐射区的城市创新力场强密集，受到多重辐射效应，而边缘城市受到辐射效应微弱；周围城市创新要素量对创新力场强具有倍乘效应，可通过增加其创新要素量放大创新辐射效应。     

智力资本对双元创新协同性的影响:高管团队行为整合的调节作用

首次探讨了智力资本与双元创新协同性(包括双元创新平衡性与双元创新互补性两个维度)之间的因果关系,以及高管团队行为整合对该关系的调节作用,提出了相关研究假设并建立了关系模型,通过问卷调查和统计分析对上述研究假设和关系模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,智力资本及其3个维度(人力资本、组织资本和社会资本)均与双元创新平衡性正相关。其中,人力资本和社会资本均与双元创新互补性正相关;智力资本与双元创新协同性及其两个维度(双元创新平衡性和双元创新互补性)均正相关;高管团队行为整合在智力资本与双元创新平衡性、双元创性互补性以及双元创新协同性间均发挥正向调节作用。     

A 3D theoretical model for green management：a case study of Chinese enterprises

Companies that not only abide by environmental regulations, but also discover new techniques and adopt newmanagement methods to reduce negative environmental impacts often have positive effects on corporate profitability. Inorder to meet the needs of sustainability of enterprises and protect environment, the concept of green management isdeveloped and regarded as an important direction of management theory of the 21st century. Though there are manytheories and practices about green management in western countries, they are built based on the developed marketeconomy, which are not suitable for Chinese enterprises absolutely. By analyzing the viewpoints and models of theoverseas and domestic experts and scholars, combining characteristic of China＇s market economy, this paper points outthe real connotation of enterprise green management - the combination of ecological harmony （harmony between humanand nature） with human harmony （harmony among people）, establishes a 3D theoretical model, points out the defects ofenterprise＇s green management in China, reanalyzes and redesigned enterprise green management, which paves the wayfor the deeper and broader development of green management.