有效市场理论的经济内涵及其影响

围绕有效市场假说的争论与西方金融理论的发展一直密切相关。本文通过对有效市场假说的形成与发展、理论前提、经济学解释、缺陷及其延伸进行系统研究,加深了对金融理论的内在联系与发展脉络的理解。     

Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model

In this paper, we empirically examine whether the assumptions and predictions of the Hotelling model are consistent with patterns observed in data. We consider nonlinear functional forms for the extraction cost and resource demand to develop an empirical Hotelling model with technological progress and stock dependent extraction costs. Using panel data on fourteen nonrenewable natural resources to estimate this empirical Hotelling model, we get qualitatively different results as compared to the related literature. We find evidence of stock-dependent extraction costs for most resources. There is no evidence against the linearity of the optimal extraction rate in the resource stock for almost all resources studied. Furthermore, the Hotelling model may sustain a zero long-run growth rate in resource prices. These results depend on whether firms use different extractive technologies or whether the structural break observed on resource prices is taken into account.     

Information,Pricing and Efficiency in Cash and Futures Markets: The Case of Hogs

The price leadership roles among hog cash and futures markets are assessed to locate points of price discovery and to examine flows of information among these markets. Several years of data are analyzed using lead/lag causality analysis and strength of linear causality measures. Although significant instantaneous relationships exist among hog cash and futures markets, one-way causality tests indicate that generally the futures market dominates cash hog markets in the price discovery process.     

The Great Leap Forward, Economic Reforms, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Testing for Breaking Trend Functions in China's GDP Data

This paper has two related objectives. The first is to evaluate empirically whether annual data for China's GDP and its sectoral components from 1952 to 1998 can be modeled more accurately as a stationary process around a breaking trend function as opposed to a unit-root process. The second is to identify the long-run growth path of the Chinese economy and shocks that are big enough to have altered the path. The conclusion that China's major output time series are trend stationary with structural breaks has significant implications for the government in policy decisions for long-run growth and short-run stabilization. It also has implications for modeling comovements between output variables and other macroeconomic variables in cointegration analysis of the Chinese economy.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 814–827. Department of Commerce, Massey University (Albany), Auckland, New Zealand.     

Market Dynamics,Programmed Traders and Futures Markets: Beginning the Laboratory Search for a Smoking Gun

Recent events have caused a re-examination of the role of programmed traders and futures markets in generating destabilizing price movements. Laboratory experiments provide an ideal environment to isolate their effects on behaviour. In a new series of experiments we find that program traders and futures markets can be crucial for ensuring the informational efficiency of the spot market, even when the former are active participants in bubbles and crashes     

An Apartment Story: To Introduce the Study of Spot,Forward, and Futures Markets,the Term Structure,and Arbitrage

An imagined apartment condominium complex is used as a device to teach how real markets work.     

Non-storables, Simultaneity and Price Determination: The Australian (Finished) Live Cattle Market

Empirical studies of simultaneous rational expectations (RE) models of spot and futures markets for non-storable commodities, such as finished live cattle, are rare. Indeed, only two countries, the US and Australia, have produced data sets for the study of such markets. This paper develops, and presents estimates of a simultaneous RE model of the live cattle market in Australia, the world's leading beef exporting country. The model contains functional relationships for short hedgers and short speculators, long hedgers and long speculators, and consumers, and is completed with a spot price equation and market clearing identity. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for unit roots are executed, and Johansen cointegration tests are employed to investigate whether the I(1) variables are cointegrated. Structural equations are estimated by maximum likelihood when ARCH effects are present, by instrumental variables in the absence of serial correlation, and by non-linear least squares when a correction for autocorrelation is required. The estimates of all structural parameters are significant at the five per cent level. Post-sample, the model forecasts spot and futures prices with per cent RMSE's of 4.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. In forecasting the spot price, the model outperforms but not significantly, a random walk, an ARIMA model, and a lagged futures price as a predictor of the spot price. The outcome of this last comparison implies that the efficient markets hypothesis cannot be rejected.     

Separating the Roles of Speculators and Consumers: a Model of Futures Trade

The general equilibrium model of Britto (1984) is criticised. In particular, it is shown that allowing consumers to trade on the futures market leads to more complicated results than necessary. If consumers do not trade futures, and only producers and speculators do, results are greatly simplified. Consumer risk parameters, and parameters of producers production function are irrelevant. The differential between the futures price and the expected spot price, and the direction of futures trade is shown to depend in a straightforward way on the price elasticity of demand for the product on the spot market.     

Structural Breaks,Biased Estimations,and Forecast Errors in a GDP Series of Canada versus the United States

International Advances in Economic Research - A structural break was suspected for the Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) time series when the reporting system switched from the Standard...     

Building the Family Nest: Premarital Investments, Marriage Markets, and Spousal Allocations

We develop a transferable utility model of the household in which the marriage market is characterized by (negative or positive) assortative matching, and spousal allocations are determined by premarital investments. We demonstrate that all sharing rules along the assortative order support efficient outcomes both in terms of premarital investments and intra-household allocations. The efficiency of premarital choices and household allocations then enables us to show that, for each couple, the marriage market generates a unique and maritally sustainable sharing rule that is a function of the distribution of premarital endowments and the sex ratios in the market. According to our results, transfers among spouses occur on two margins: premarital investments and intra-marital spousal allocations. Asymmetries in the sex ratios in the marriage markets produce gender differences in premarital investments and consumption that are larger for individuals with small premarital endowments than those with larger endowments. A corollary of these findings is that, when men are in short supply in the marriage markets, women can invest more than men even when the returns to investment are lower or the costs are higher for women.     

探索性创新、开发性创新与企业绩效关系的整合研究模型及理论假设

探索性创新和开发性创新是两种性质不同的创新方式.笔者把环境不确定性、冗余资源、组织结构特性等权变影响因素纳入分析框架,构建了一个多要素互动的整合研究模型,从多个角度挖掘两种创新方式在不同匹配条件下的企业绩效影响水平,并提出相关研究假设,为未来实证研究提供基础框架.     

中国农产品贸易ARIMA模型的建立及预测：2009——2012年

根据中国农产品贸易数据特点,构建中国农产品进出口的ARIMA模型,对2009-2012年中国农产品进出口进行预测,结果发现:所构建的ARIMA模型对农产品进出口的平均顶测误差仅为3.291%和3.248%,达到了最小方差意义下的最优预测效果;2009-2012年中国农产品进出口持续双增长,农产品出口增长的速度大于农产品进口增长的速度;同时,贸易逆差仍然存在,但逆差缺口呈现缩小态势.     

Protesting and Justifying: A Latent Class Model for Contingent Valuation with Attitudinal Data

This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP) for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data to identify individuals with similar characteristics, such as WTP and protest attitudes. We find evidence that the answer to the CV question influences the responses to the attitudinal questions. In our case, this influence reflects rational behavior (budget constraint issues) and justification biases related to protest reasons, such as lack of trust in institutions or fairness issues with respect to the distribution of the burden of preservation. The results from our empirical application confirm the importance of accounting for those biases.     

On the Benefits From Rigid Labour Markets: Norms, Market Failures, and Social Insurance

The common view that far-reaching labour market deregulation is the only remedy for high European unemployment is too simplistic. First, the evidence suggests that deeply rooted social customs are an important cause of wage rigidity, going beyond the legal constraints emphasised in the political debate. Second, in a second-best setting, a compressed wage structure may generate an efficiency gain. Finally, based on simple plots of the relation between labour market institutions and openness in OECD countries, I conclude that the globalisation of economic activity may lead to increased demand for various labour market rigidities.     

企业异质性、自愿捐赠与商会的本质:一个假说

本文利用异质自愿捐赠模型扩展了商会本质的讨论。商会可以视为大企业内部治理与外部网络拓展相互替代的结果。异质性程度高的行业,商会较容易围绕"骨干"企业成长起来。企业规模越同质,自愿捐赠形成的商会规模趋于下降,随着企业数目增多偏离社会福利最优的程度也将越大。异质性条件下的商会网络的物理架构更偏向于星型网,进而,这将给商会的政治经济社会学意义评价带来困难。     

Seasonality and the Life-cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence for Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany

Intra-year observed consumption displays substantial seasonality. Consumers allocate their non-durable expenditure over the four quarters of the year, maximising total utility subject to the period-to-period budget constraint. Osborn (1988) derives a seasonally-varying utility function, for which Hall's (1978) consumption function implies a periodic autoregressive model with a unit root. Using quarterly seasonally unadjusted consumption for Australia, the United Kingdom, and Germany, recently developed tests for seasonality and periodicity are used to examine the modified rational expectations life-cycle permanent income hypothesis and to reinforce previous findings in the literature. Seasonal habit persistence is introduced as an alternative model and its empirical adequacy is found to be significant. Finally, a multivariate test of the excess sensitivity puzzle excludes a predictive role for lagged income changes.     

大数据、个人信息保护和价格歧视——基于垂直差异化双寡头模型的分析

本文从价格歧视角度出发,讨论大数据时代非敏感个人信息保护的利与弊。传统文献认为,在垄断市场结构下,无个人信息保护会使厂商利用大数据对消费者进行一级价格歧视,从而最小化消费者剩余。本文则证明,一旦引入竞争,消费者总剩余和社会总福利在无个人信息保护和完全一级价格歧视时达到最大,而禁止价格歧视则带来产品的无效分配。此外,不同类型的消费者和厂商对个人信息保护政策的偏好不同。据此,本文认为引入竞争是解决企业利用大数据压榨消费者的有效途径,且消费者的非敏感个人信息应在竞争厂商间公平共享,从而为政策制定者在制定个人信息保护政策时根据行业特点协调各方利益提供了一定的理论依据。