A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.     

Evaluation of a Multi-robot Cafe Based on Service Quality Dimensions

While AI applications are popular in many domains, they should work harmoniously with domain exerts and end users. Furthermore, to develop such harmonious AI applications, we need agile AI platforms for not only developers, but also domain experts. Currently, we have developed PRactical INTElligent aPplicationS (PRINTEPS), which is a user-centric platform to develop integrated intelligent applications. This paper reports on a multi-robot cafe as a practical application of PRINTEPS and evaluates its service quality at a university festival. It is not clear if robotic services are perceived as attractive and/or valuable, and how the concept of robotic services could lead to customer satisfaction. Therefore, the evaluation of the quality of such services is necessary to identify the key factors that could contribute to improving customer satisfaction. The purpose of this research is to identify key factors in improving customer satisfaction in robotic services by evaluating the service quality of the multi-robot cafe. We designed questionnaire items based on SERVQUAL which is one of the service quality evaluation measurement methods and conducted a questionnaire survey at a multi-robot cafe held at a university festival. From the collected data, we modeled and evaluated the relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction to identify key factors in robotic services using a Bayesian network. In addition, the experiment confirms the usefulness of PRINTEPS.     

Data Mining Approach for Direct Marketing of Banking Products with Profit/Cost Analysis

Nowadays, many businesses, such as banks, use direct marketing methods to reach customers to minimize the campaigning cost and maximize the return rate. To achieve this, huge customer data should be analyzed to determine the most appropriate product offer for each customer and the most effective channel to reach her/him. However, since only a very small amount of responses collected from the customers are positive to the offers, the dataset is very imbalanced. This decreases sensitivity ratio of prediction results and makes it difficult to make a successful product and channel selection for the offer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid system, which first classifies the customers to decide if s/he is interested in the offered product, and then clusters them for product and channel suggestions. Experiments with real life banking data show very promising accuracy results for predicting the proper product and channel for the customers. Moreover, cost-profit analysis is also added to this problem. Our experiment results show that the proposed method decreases a fraction of the total profit, but since the decrease in the total cost is very large, there is a huge increase in the overall profit/cost ratio.     

Impact of Online Customer Reviews on Sales Outcomes: An Empirical Study Based on Prospect Theory

This study examines the influence of the valence of online customer reviews on sales outcomes based on prospect theory. Numerous studies have revealed the importance of customer reviews in online marketing. However, only few studies have explored the impact of online customer reviews on sales outcomes in the dynamic process. Prior studies in behavioral economics literature have indicated that people differently value gains and losses and that losses have more emotional impact than an equivalent amount of gains. This study verifies whether prospect theory applies to the relation between online customer reviews and sales outcomes. Relevant data were collected from Amazon.co.jp, and three statistical models were employed to investigate the relation between the two factors. Major findings confirm that negative customer reviews considerably impact online sales than positive reviews. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the marginal effects of positive and negative reviews decrease with the increase in their volume. The results of this study will enable marketers to compare the relative sales effects of different types of customer reviews and improve the effectiveness of customer service management.     

A Conjoint Analysis of Demand for the Japanese Mobile Phone Market

The Japanese mobile phone market is 55.8% of the total market in the telecommunications industry. This paper is a conjoint analysis on Japanese consumer preferences for Japanese mobile phones. The analysis in this paper is presented after a questionnaire survey was given to 3,412 Japanese mobile phone users over 15 years old. The results of this analysis show that a decline in the price of mobile phone sets, an increase in transmission speed, the application of family discounts, and the continuation of contracts with the same telecommunication companies, all raise demand for mobile networks. In addition, the author found that user groups of NTT DOCOMO, au (KDDI), Softbank, and MVNO have different utility functions. According to the estimation of Mean Willingness to Pay (MWTP) in this paper, suppliers of mobile phone networks may be able to optimize and maximize demand by adjusting attributions and their levels.     

Modeling Bank Runs in Financial Crises

In recent years, financial crises have occurred frequently in each region, and banks are facing harsh management environments. Bank runs of customers during a financial crisis are one of a bank’s most serious risks. This research aims to build a bank run model for financial crises, use that model to estimate the amount of deposit funds which flow out, and propose a framework for financial crisis risk management. The model proposed in this paper enables understanding of the factors which have the largest impacts on bank runs, providing valuable information for banks to cope with such risks. The model uses survey data, and clarified that bank runs have differences which depend on customer characteristics and branch location. We understood that during a financial crisis, an appropriate branch strategy must be adopted depending on the location and customer characteristics of each bank branch.     

Research Note: The Paradox of Cloud Computing in Japan

Cloud Computing is defined as computer usage delivered as a service over the Internet. This cloud computing is classified as public computing, private computing, or hybrid computing. Public cloud computing is open to any customer who pays service charges. On the contrary, private cloud computing is used by a member of a company who has constructed a cloud computing system over a restricted domain on that company's information infrastructure. Hybrid cloud computing is a mix of both the public and private. Which type of cloud computing is popular in Japan? To answer this question I mailed questionnaires to 2,284 enterprises listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market in 2012 and 2013. I analyzed the relationship between these answers and financial indexes using a multinomial logistic regression model. I concluded that the total assets was the most effective factor in the decision to introduce the public cloud, and the accumulated profit was one of the most effective factors in the decision to introduce the hybrid cloud. These findings are not consistent with orthodox price theory.     

别样瑞友科技：因邵凯而“个性”

哈佛商学院教授迈克尔·波特（Michael porter）曾说,竞争性战略就是要做到与众不同,它要求企业家表达一种独特的价值理念。 在中国IT服务业,瑞友科技这个名字出现的时间不过3年,但她绝对是一个响当当的品牌。这并不是因为她脱身于用友,而是因为她有一个深受客户好评的独特的价值理念——个性化IT服务。     

An Interactive Independent Topic Analysis for a Mass Document Review Service

In this paper, we propose an interactive constrained independent topic analysis in text data mining. Independent topic analysis (ITA) is a method for extracting independent topics from document data using independent component analysis. In this independent topic analysis, the most independent topics between each topic are extracted. By extracting the independent topic, managing documents with a large number of text data is easy with document access support systems and document management systems. However, the topics extracted by ITA are often different from the topics a user requests. For the system to be of service to users, an interactive system that reflects the user’s requests is necessary. Thus, we propose an interactive ITA that works for the user. For example, if there are three topics, i.e., topic A, topic B, and topic C, and a user choose the content from topics A and B, a user can merge those topics into one topic D. In addition, if a user wants to analyze topic A in more detail, a user could separate topic A into topics E and topic F. To that end, we define Merge Link constraints and Separate Link constraints as user requests. The Merge Link constraint is a constraint that merges two topics into one topic. The Separate Link constraint is a constraint that separates two topics from one topic. In this paper, we propose a method for extracting a highly independent topic that meets these constraints. We conducted evaluation experiments on our proposed methods, and obtained results to show the effectiveness of our approach.     

Sales Strategy Mining Support with Visualization of Moving History

Strategic usage in data mining of sales data has come under increased focus as a result of the growth of data mining studies using electrical data, such as Point of Sale (POS) data. However, many of these mining systems only output results such as frequently appearing patterns, while, instead, they should be aimed at people who mine data. In this paper, a framework for leading and supporting new ideas from data is introduced. Based on this framework, a system that supports strategic usage in the data mining of sales data is proposed. The system deals not only with POS data, but also with the moving history of each customer. The system visualizes POS and moving history data, so that an analyzer inputs conditions to narrow down customers and acquires customer features. In addition to the ordinal outputs of a mining system, the analyzer interprets the meaning of his/her input and output to create a new strategy based on the framework. According to the experimental results, new strategies derived from the moving history were created.     

世界著名企业家的用人之道

罗氏的经营高招就在于：别人尽力讨好顾客,他则把重心放在公司雇员身上,做到＂员工第一＂。他认为在市场观念上是＂顾客第一＂,但在经营管理上,则必须做到＂员工第一＂。     

PRINTEPS: An Integrated Intelligent Application Development Platform based on Stream Reasoning and ROS

Although AI and service robot applications have become very popular in many domains recently, many of them are specific applications and it is still difficult to develop integrated intelligent applications such as a robot teahouse and teaching assistant robots. To develop such integrated intelligent applications, we need integrated intelligent application platforms that have AI integration and agile process facilities. From the above background, we are currently developing PRactical INTElligent aPplicationS (PRINTEPS), which is a platform for developing integrated intelligent applications by combining only five types of modules, namely knowledge-based reasoning, spoken dialogue, image sensing, motion management, and machine learning. This paper proposes a workflow editor in PRINETPS based on a service-oriented architecture and a Robot Operating System that enables real-time parallel processing for multiple robots and sensors by integrating the five types of modules. The editor also supports not only developers but also domain experts in updating workflows frequently. This paper also proposes a novel method to integrate signals acquired through image sensing with knowledge (ontologies and business rules) using C-SPARQL and Semantic Web Rule Language. To evaluate PRINTEPS, we developed a robot teahouse application including customer reception and guidance to table services using a humanoid robot with PRINTEPS. Through this case study, we demonstrated that the behaviors of the robot can be modified by changing the workflow, the ontology, and the rules.     

A Pricing Strategy with Consumption Externality when the Reference Group is Large

This paper provides an analysis of firms’ optimal prices when individual utility exhibits both material and other consumer effects. We construct a model and conduct an analysis in the following four steps: (1) By using a conjoint analysis of data, we set up a hierarchical Bayesian model and estimate its parameters, which are composed of individual utility functions. (2) We calculate the number of sales in each time period and derive the total sales throughout the given period. (3) We estimate the demand functions in the presence and absence of consumption externalities. (4) Finally, we calculate the profit functions and derive the optimal prices taking into account various product attributes. By applying our analysis to the book market of Japan, we find that the optimal price is lower when an externality is present than when absent. The intuition behind this result is that pricing low and selling a large number of books from an early stage increases the externality effect, yielding a higher profit for firms.     

Are Depositors Aware of the Governance of their Banks?1

In the discussion of corporate governance from the standpoint of economists, it is common for economists to pay more attention to the stockholders of a corporation (as stakeholders) than to the creditors. However, the behaviors of depositors as creditors should not be neglected in the management of banking institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze statistically the decision factors of depositors in opening an account at a particular bank with respect to corporate governance variables. My result shows that depositors with risk aversion consider banks well managed based on the following: a lower rate of external auditors, a longer time of service by the bank’s president, and the existence of a simultaneous promotion system of the bank’s president and chairperson.     

A Conjoint Analysis of a Next Generation Network (NGN) in Japan

A conjoint analysis on a Web survey in 2010 with 160 participants and 8 questions shows that a Marginal Willingness To Pay (MWTP) on a Next Generation Network (NGN) of Flet’s Hikari Next is lower than its actual price as provided by NTT East. Conjoint analysis is one application of conditional logit. MWTP is WTP when one unit of property is increased, and MWTP is used to verify how much each person evaluates each property. Higher transmission speed, digital TV availability, and higher Internet security affect the MWTP positively, and the amount of the monthly payment of NGN affects the MWTP negatively. Therefore, it is assumed that the NGN of Flet’s Hikari Next by NTT East will be accepted by potential customers and diffused as a major communications service of NTT East and NTT West. NGN providers may be able to maximize their benefits by adjusting the NGN of Flet’s Hikari Next property to meet customer demands, especially in digital TV availability, higher transmission speed, and communications security.     

在“国进民退”的论争中实现共赢

段永基认为,＂现在到了说清楚社会主义市场经济体制价值观的时候了——公民有自由选择的权利,倡导公平竞争,坚持法治社会,推进民主政治＂。     

“科技·金融·产业”融合发展下的转型之道——专访广东中天集团总裁张宇凯

在经济增长方式的转变和产业结构的调整这一大趋势下,全国各地都在探索转型升级之路。作为中国民营企业聚集的制造业名城,东莞凭借在改革开放几十年中积累的产业和市场优势,以及得天独厚的区位优势,推出＂科技·金融·产业＂融合发展的全新定位。＂春江水暖鸭先知＂,鏖战在市场一线的民营企业,其市场敏锐性要比其他企业来得更早也更灵活。在东莞＂科技·金融·产业＂融合发展这一全新定位下,广东中天集团未雨绸缪,主动出击,实现了从地产开发商到园区建设者的业务扩容。中天集团究竟是如何做到的？有哪些经验值得借鉴？未来的规划又是怎样的？带着这些问题,本刊独家专访了中天集团总裁张宇凯,以期探寻一个转型样本。     

对话于庆洲

实际上,我们现在所服务的行业,多方面已经实现了领跑者的理想。领跑者实际上就是要做别人没做、别人没想到的事情。我们要在客户还没想到的情况下,就提出解决方案。那时候客户才会猛然发现＂你的解决方案就是我想要的＂。     

Fuzzy Similarity Matching Method for Interior Design Drawing Recommendation

A cosine similarity matching method for a binary measurement scale was proposed and applied to a recommender system in our previous study for retrieving interior design drawings. However, for mixed types of intervals, nominal, ordinal, or ratio scales, this matching method fails, as the cosine similarity measure function is not defined for ordinal and nominal values. Compared to our previous study, this paper proposes a new fuzzy similarity matching method for mixed measurement scales and applies the matching method to a recommender system. A numerical case study was carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness and capabilities of the proposed similarity matching method for handling interior design drawing recommendation problems.     

Agent-based simulation approach for disaster rescue using active RFID

After the 2004 earthquake in Japan’sNiigata Prefecture, there were many difficulties finding the victims. The earthquake caused a wired network disconnection. In addition, fixed-phone and cell-phone service systems crashed due to the rapid increase in the volume of communications. The systems’ collapse was due to the large number of users who were worried about the safety of their relatives. The same situation happened during Hurricane Katrina in the USA. Reflecting on these situations, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is trying to adopt several methods to correct these communications problems. Although these methods have not been disclosed precisely yet, we think that a predominant goal of one of the methods is most likely to find victims using RFIDs (Radio Frequency Identification) with computer sensors. To do this, the RFID method would have to be incorporated in the following ways: 1) by scattering sensor devices from helicopters when a large-scale disaster such as an earthquake occurs, 2) by making RFIDs self-organized into a network, and 3) by making the self-organized network pinpoint the position of victims. A certain amount of field-testing may be necessary to confirm the effects of this plan. However, such testing requires a great amount of time and high costs. Therefore, we adopt an agent-based simulation for such a test. In this paper, we pay specific attention to a simple and assured algorithm for discovering victims using RFIDs. First, we explain our method to confirm the location of victims. Second, we explain our method for pinpointing the position of victims using trilateration. Finally, we present our simulation results.