TIME-SERIES PROPERTIES OF THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

In this paper we use time-series models to investigate the presence of autoregression, random variation, and random walk movements of historic equity risk premiums. An autoregressive risk premium is found for 1926–58, but random variation around a much lower risk premium mean is found for 1959–90. This finding is not sensitive to holding-period length, the choice of the risk-free rate proxy, or January/July seasonal effects.     

GLOBAL EVIDENCE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

The size of the equity risk premium—the incremental return that shareholders require to hold risky equities rather than risk-free securities—is a key issue in corporate finance. Financial economists generally measure the equity premium over long periods of time in order to obtain reliable estimates. These estimates are widely used by investors, finance professionals, corporate executives, regulators, lawyers, and consultants. But because the 20th century proved to be a period of such remarkable growth in the U.S. economy, estimates of the risk premium that rely on past market performance may be too high to serve as a reliable guide to the future.
The authors analyze a 103-year history of risk premiums in 16 countries and conclude that the U.S. risk premium relative to Treasury bills was 5.3% for that period—lower than previous studies suggest—as compared to 4.2% for the U.K. and 4.5% for a world index. But the article goes on to observe that the historical record may still overstate expectations of the future risk premium, partly because market volatility in the future may be lower than in the past, and partly because of a general decline in risk resulting from new technological advances and increased diversification opportunities for investors. After adjusting for the expected impact of these factors, the authors calculate forward-looking equity risk premiums of 4.3% for the U.S., 3.9% for the U.K., and 3.5% for the world index. At the same time, however, they caution that the risk premium can fluctuate over time and that managers should make appropriate adjustments when there are compelling economic reasons to think that expected premiums are unusually high or low.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EQUITY COSTS AND RISK PREMIUMS IN THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY: 1971–1985

This paper develops a varying parameter econometric model that estimates the cost of equity of individual utility firms from 1971 to 1985. The equity costs estimated in this framework can be analyzed in terms of their statistical precision. The paper also examines, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between the econometric estimates of the equity risk premiums and the risk-free interest rates. The data do not support the hypothesis that risk premiums are independent of interest rates. Also, the relationship appears to vary over time. These results invalidate the risk premium approach in which equity costs are estimated by adding a constant, historical average risk premium to the prevailing interest rates.     

A TEST OF THE RISK PREMIUM HYPOTHESIS

Contrary to economic theory, there is international evidence that common stock returns and inflation are negatively related. This negative relationship is examined in this paper and the applicability of the risk premium hypothesis is tested. According to this hypothesis, an increase in unanticipated inflation causes the market risk premium to rise, which in turn lowers current stock prices. A model is developed and the effect of uncertain inflation on the market risk premium across four countries is tested empirically. Results indicate that the market risk premium is positively related to uncertain inflation.     

THE RISK STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AND INTERDEPENDENT BORROWING COSTS: THE IMPACT OF MAJOR DEFAULTS

This paper develops a new methodology for evaluating the impact of economic events on bond yields. Term structure information and implicit forward rates are used to generate expected bond yields, and the difference between actual and expected yields is interpreted as the information effect of the event. The methodology is applied to two studies of municipal default: the New York City default and the more recent Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS) default. The analysis provides evidence that the New York City default did have a significant impact on the interest cost of municipal financing in general. In the case of WPPSS, however, there is no indication of a significant default impact.     

THE RISK BEHAVIOR OF EQUITY OF FIRMS APPROACHING BANKRUPTCY

The risk behavior of financially distressed companies is studied using the shifting regimes regression model originally suggested by Brown, Durbin, and Evans. In addition, the presence of nonsynchronous trading is detected and the regression model is adjusted accordingly using Dimson's technique. The results reveal that the behavior of systematic risk as firms approach bankruptcy depends to some degree on appropriate identification of periods over which beta is constant and adjusting for nonsynchronous trading. The results also lend support to the importance of skewness and to some extent beta but not unsystematic risk in explaining the security returns of firms approaching bankruptcy. Finally, the behavior of equity risk is examined according to the outcome of the bankruptcy filing.     

TIME VARYING RISK PREMIUM AND THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF THE AUSTRALIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

Using weekly data on bank accepted bills over the 1976 to 1993 period, this paper provides direct evidence of the presence of a term premium in the Australian term structure. The term premium is shown to vary over time and have an adverse effect on the predictive power of the term structure. The variance of the expected term premium is quantified in terms of its lower bound relative to the upper bound of the variance of the rational expectations error. This ratio is observed to vary over sample sub periods and rise to a high of one in some periods which include the period immediately prior to the market crash.     

ON THE NEGATIVE RISK PREMIUM FOR RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATES: A COMMENT AND EXTENSION

This paper develops conditions necessary for negative risk premia to emerge at the market level, and at the individual level in imperfect markets. It also correctly shows how to discount cash outflows. The model used to integrate these topics is the state-preference model of security valuation; the most general model available. The paper corrects serious errors contained in recent work published in the journal.     

THE COSTS OF EQUITY ISSUES SINCE RULE 415: A CLOSER LOOK

In this paper I re-examine the effect of shelf registration (SEC Rule 415) on the underwriter fees of firms issuing equity. The data indicate that lower fees cannot be obtained by typical firms using the shelf procedure. Rather, previously documented evidence of lower underwriter spreads for shelf issues appears to be due to a selection bias in the firms choosing shelf registration. These firms enjoy a comparative cost advantage over other firms regardless of the registration procedure used.     

THE TIME‐VARYING EQUITY PREMIUM AND THE S&P 500 IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

I present a new hindcast stock market index for the United States over the twentieth century. This is constructed by calibrating a rational asset pricing model that allows for a time‐varying equity premium driven by heteroskedasticity in consumption growth. By incorporating this variation in risk, the mean square error of the generated index series, when compared to the observed levels of the S&P 500, is significantly reduced. The model also explains the broad magnitudes and timings of the major bull and bear markets of the twentieth century, particularly before 1973, and the excess volatility puzzle is largely resolved.     

THE ACCURACY OF CAPM PROXIES FOR ESTIMATING A FIRM'S COST OF EQUITY

In estimating a firm's cost of equity with the CAPM the standard procedure is to proxy the market portfolio by a share index. Since this index is not the market portfolio this may give rise to a bias in estimating the firm's cost of equity. This paper investigates this bias and concludes that it will arise if the factor coefficients are not proportional to those of the index. Even moderate departures from this proportionality condition may produce significant bias.     

TRANSACTION COSTS AND DAY-OF-THE-WEEK EFFECTS IN THE OTC/NASDAQ EQUITY MARKET

A potential explanation is examined here for the observed day-of-the-week effect in equity returns—systematic daily patterns in percentage bid-ask spreads. Using OTC/NASDAQ data over 1973–1985, strong return day-of-the-week effects are documented while mean dealer percentage spreads are essentially unchanged over the week. These results provide evidence that systematic percentage spread changes do not contribute to the observed return anomaly.     

FOREIGN-CURRENCY ACCOUNTING METHODS: REPORTING THE EXCHANGE RATE RISK EXPOSURE OF EQUITY

This study tests whether Australian firms' unregulated foreign-currency accounting policies indicated the extent to which equity claims against the firm were exposed to exchange rate risk. Evidence supports the hypothesis that the methods of accounting for foreign-currency gains and losses on long-term monetary-items were associated with the exposure. Methods of disposing of the gains and losses arising from translation of the accounts of overseas subsidiaries were also associated with the exposure, but not in the manner predicted. The results indicate that foreign-currency accounting policies were established in an interactive (portfolio) decision-making process, and that managers reported equity claim exposures relative to the returns to equity claims against other firms. Overall, the study provides evidence that at least some unregulated choices of foreign-currency accounting methods were made to minimise the agency costs associated with contracts between shareholders and management.     

ON THE NEGATIVE RISK PREMIUM FOR RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATES: A REPLY

This short paper shows that the results of Professor Booth's application of the Time State Preference framework to the negative risk premium problem are in fact consistent with the analysis presented in Berry and Dyson (1980). Professor Booth's criticisms of this earlier paper are thereby shown to be invalid. Some further comments are then offered about the phenomenon of negative risk premia.