Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory and evolutionary economics

In this paper, we aim to discuss whether Schumpeterian models of endogenous growth can accommodate Schumpeters vision of development through creative destruction. Taking a methodological approach, our focus is on individual decision-making, technology, general equilibrium and welfare, and steady state dynamics as the fundamental principles underlying endogenous growth theory. In particular, the Aghion-Howitt model of Schumpeterian growth in various extended versions is analyzed in the light of Schumpeters work. Therefore, we also try to root Schumpeters work in historical context. We find endogenous growth theory far from carrying Schumpeters idea of an evolutionary approach to change and development. Rather the emergence of numerous models of an evolutionary type can be observed to provide for the formal structure appropriate to keeping Schumpeters legacy alive.JEL Classification: B1, B2, B4, O3, O4Corespondence to: Thomas Kuhn     

Bringing institutions into evolutionary growth theory

Classical economics was both evolutionary and institutional. With the rise of neoclassical economics, both the evolutionary and the institutional aspects were squeezed out of main line economic theory. The last quarter century has seen a rebirth of both traditions, but as minority intellectual positions, and to a considerable extent separate ones. This essay argues the need for a rejoining of evolutionary and institutional economics, and suggests a way to bring the two strands together in a coherent way.     

演化理论视角下现代经济增长理论的批判与重建

本文在演化经济学的视角下,建设性地批判现代经济增长理论,试图建立一个新现代经济增长理论的初步基准分析框架,在此基础上比较了新现代增长理论与现代经济增长理论,并提出进一步研究的方向.     

Micro foundations for meso and macro economic theory

The natures of rational thought and rational lives are described as the basis of an adaptive economizing theory which presents an alternative microeconomic foundation contrasting with but complementary to optimal control theory for modeling mesoeconomic order. Contrastingly, that micro foundation seems to imply the inappropriateness of representing macro data as an optimal economic agent. Rather, direct representation of the emergent causal order in the macroeconomic data is suggested.

Entrepreneurship and regional growth: an evolutionary interpretation

While the neoclassical growth theory considered economic growth as a process of mere accumulation of production capital, the endogenous growth theory shifted the lens to the importance of knowledge in the production process and its potential to create spillovers. We argue in this paper that there is a gap between knowledge and exploitable knowledge or economic knowledge. Economic knowledge emerges from a selection process across the generally available body of knowledge, actively driven by economic agents. This paper suggests that entrepreneurship is an important mechanism in driving that selection process hence in creating diversity of knowledge, which in turn serves as a mechanism facilitating the spillover of knowledge. We provide empirical evidence that regions with higher levels of entrepreneurship indeed exhibit stronger growth in labor productivity.JEL Classification: M13, O32, O47 Correspondence to: David B. AudretschWe are grateful to the ZEW in Mannheim for research support and to the German Science Foundation (DFG) for financial support under research grant number STA 169/10-2. We are indebted to two anonymous referees and the editor of the special issue for their helpful comments.     

Population growth: a comparison of evolutionary views

"Economists are divided about population growth: the pessimism of neo-Malthusians contrasts strongly with the optimism of cornucopians. Despite their differences, however, both schools of thought reject economic orthodoxy and prefer evolutionary forms of theory. Their interpretations of evolution are different: the neo-Malthusians appeal to the entropy law, whereas the cornucopians emphasize human creativity expressed through markets. [The author argues] that both schools are right to adopt an evolutionary outlook, but that they are too restrictive in their conception of evolution. A more complete evolutionary view, which allows properly for social institutions, could give a more balanced account of population growth."     

Financial systems and economic growth in South Africa: a dynamic complementarity test

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development.     

Anticipating Nelson and Winter: Jack Downie's theory of evolutionary economic change

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change , by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter continues to have great influence on evolutionary economic thought. While their modeling techniques and the breadth of their vision for evolutionary theorising must be seen as seminal and effective innovation in economic theory, they were not the first inventors of such a theory. Close examination reveals that much of the economic theory was anticipated by Jack Downie whose book, The Competitive Process, was published in 1958. The extent of anticipation is remarkable, with not merely the two elements of population ecology, selection and mutation, but the way in which they are theorised to work being replicated by Nelson and Winter.     

An evolutionary theory of household consumption behavior

Evolutionary economics badly needs a behavioral theory of household consumption behavior, but to date only limited progress has been made on that front. Partly because Schumpeter’s own writings were focused there, and partly because this has been the focus of most of the more recent empirical work on technological change, modern evolutionary economists have focused on the “supply side”. However, because a significant portion of the innovation going on in capitalist countries has been in the form of new consumer goods and services, it should be obvious that dealing coherently with the Schumpeterian agenda requires a theory which treats in a realistic way how consumers respond to new goods and services. The purpose of this essay is to map out a broad alternative to the neoclassical theory of consumer behavior.     

On economic applications of evolutionary game theory

Evolutionary games have considerable unrealized potential for modeling substantive economic issues. They promise richer predictions than orthodox game models but often require more extensive specifications. This paper exposits the specification of evolutionary game models and classifies the possible asymptotic behavior for one and two dimensional models.     

Applying evolutionary theory to human behaviour: past differences and current debates

The aim of this paper is to provide non-specialist readers with an introduction to some current controversies surrounding the application of evolutionary theory to human behaviour at the intersection of biology, psychology and anthropology. We review the three major contemporary sub-fields; namely Human Behavioural Ecology, Evolutionary Psychology and Cultural Evolution, and we compare their views on maladaptive behaviour, the proximal mechanisms of cultural transmission, and the relationship between human cognition and culture. For example, we show that the sub-fields vary in the amount of maladaptive behaviour that is predicted to occur in modern environments; Human Behavioural Ecologists start with the expectation that behaviour will be optimal, while Evolutionary Psychologists emphasize cases of ‘mis-match’ between modern environments and domain-specific, evolved psychological mechanisms. Cultural Evolutionists argue that social learning processes are effective at providing solutions to novel problems and describe how relatively weak, general-purpose learning mechanisms, alongside accurate cultural transmission, can lead to the cumulative evolution of adaptive cultural complexity but also sometimes to maladaptative behaviour. We then describe how the sub-fields view cooperative behaviour between non-kin, as an example of where the differences between the sub-fields are relevant to the economics community, and we discuss the hypothesis that a history of inter-group competition can explain the evolution of non-kin cooperation. We conclude that a complete understanding of human behaviour requires insights from all three fields and that many scholars no longer view them as distinct.     

Voting and paying for public goods: An application of the theory of the core

Let any coalition with a majority of all voters have the power to choose the quantities of public goods. Under Rule I a majority coalition bears a cost of its decision that is proportional to its size. Under Rule II it must bear the whole cost of its decision. Thus, Rule I imposes costs on minorities although they have no power to choose the quantities of public goods while Rule II allows goods to have some attributes of semiprivate goods. It is shown that a nonempty core under Rule I implies a nonempty core under Rule II, but not conversely. Necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of the properties of the von Neumann-Morgenstern characteristic function are given.     

An evolutionary theory of the convergence towards low inflation rates

This paper presents an evolutionary interpretation of Barro-Gordons monetary policy game. The model describes a multi-country setup where governments and private agents are boundedly rational players. The behavioral rule of players decisions leads to the imitation of the strategy giving the highest payoff. In this evolutionary monetary policy game, we show how a low inflation state is reached from an international context dominated by inflationary policies. The analysis explains the convergence towards low inflation rates observed during the past twenty years. Moreover, the low inflation state appears to be the long-run equilibrium of the game under some conditions featuring the observed macroeconomic context.JEL Classification: E5, C72, C73 Correspondence to: A. dArtigues     

Regulation and taxation: A complementarity

I show how quantity regulation can lower elasticities and thereby increase optimal tax rates. Such regulation imposes regulatory incentives for particular choice quantities. Their strength varies between zero (laissez faire) and infinite (command economy). In the latter case, regulation effectively eliminates any intensive behavioral responses to taxes; a previously distortionary tax becomes a lump sum. For intermediate regulation (where some deviation is feasible), intensive behavioral responses are still weaker than under zero regulation, and so quantity regulation reduces elasticities, thereby facilitating subsequent taxation. I apply this mechanism to labor supply and present correlational evidence for this complementarity: hours worked in high-regulation countries are compressed, and these countries tax labor at higher rates.     

Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory

We develop a parsimonious finance and endogenous growth model with microeconomic frictions in entrepreneurship and a role for credit constraints. We demonstrate that though an efficiency–growth relation will always exist, the efficiency–depth–growth relation may not. This has implications for the connection between the theory and empirics of finance and growth. We go on to ask whether the model can account for some historical trends in growth, financial depth and financial efficiency for the UK over the period 1850–1913. The best model of finance and growth is one that departs from the standard depth–growth link.     

An evolutionary game theory approach to the dynamics of the labour market: A formal and informal perspective

A stylized fact of the labour market in developing countries is that it is highly segmented in informality. One of the main factors that induce workers and firms into informality is an excessive regulatory system that makes formal economy little attractive. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of workers and firms’ entrance and withdrawal of the formal and informal economy, assessing the impact of taxes by using an evolutionary game theory approach in which economic agents decide for one these markets according to the expected pay-off. Moreover, the optimal relation between regulatory and enforcement action by the government is evaluated.     

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. A two-sector rather than a one-sector model is required because of the very rapid rate at which the prices of ICT products have fallen in the past and are expected to fall in the future. According to the two-sector model, the main boost to growth comes from ICT use, not ICT production. Even a country with zero ICT production can benefit via improving terms of trade. I quantify this effect for 15 European and 4 non-European countries, using the EU KLEMS database. The ICT intensity of production (the ICT income share) is much lower in many European countries than it is in the United States or Sweden. Nevertheless the contribution to long run growth stemming from even the current levels of ICT intensity is substantial: about half a per cent per annum on average in these 19 countries. If ICT intensity reached the same level as currently in the U.S. or Sweden, this would add a further 0.2 percentage points per annum to long run growth.     

基于核心能力的适度多元化:企业成长与发展的方向

多元化一直是战略管理学界争论的问题之一.企业多元化扩张的失败案例使人们对多元化战略产生了质疑,"归核化"运动的兴起,这种质疑甚至误解更加严重.21世纪,企业所面临的内外环境将更加多变,专业化经营的风险不言而喻,当企业的资源和能力不能驾驭专业化所带来的风险时,多元化成为必然选择.但是,只有基于核心能力的适度多元化发展才能取得真正的成功,才能使企业在市场竞争中做到游刃有余,获得持久竞争优势.     

A tale of two tails: peakedness properties in inheritance models of evolutionary theory

In this paper, we study transmission of traits through generations in multifactorial inheritance models with sex- and time-dependent heritability. We further analyze the implications of these models under heavy-tailedness of traits’ distributions. Among other results, we show that in the case of a trait (for instance, a medical or behavioral disorder or a phenotype with significant heritability affecting human capital in an economy) with not very thick-tailed initial density, the trait distribution becomes increasingly more peaked, that is, increasingly more concentrated and unequally spread, with time. But these patterns are reversed for traits with sufficiently heavy-tailed initial distributions (e.g., a medical or behavioral disorder for which there is no strongly expressed risk group or a relatively equally distributed ability with significant genetic influence). Such traits’ distributions become less peaked over time and increasingly more spread in the population. The proof of the results in the paper is based on the general results on majorization properties of heavy-tailed distributions obtained recently in Ibragimov (Econom Theory 23: 501–517, 2007) and also presented in the author’s Ph.D. dissertation (Ibragimov, New majorization theory in economics and martingale convergence results in econometrics. Yale University, 2005) and several their extensions derived in this work.