Current Strategic Actions of Russian Manufacturing Subsidiaries of Western Multinational Corporations

This article provides a critical analysis of the current strategic actions of Russian manufacturing subsidiaries of Western multinational corporations. The authors retraced the content of strategic actions in various aspects of subsidiary management implemented during 2015–16 and the activities of strategists of different ranks. The authors found that some actions that multinational corporations in Russia implemented during 2014–16 represent standard strategic practices during downturns. In contrast, other strategic practices (facilities expansion against negative market dynamics and reluctance to change the system of permanent job contracts and abundant employee social benefits) generally contradict with the textbook solution for company strategies during downturns.     

A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi‐factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis sub‐period. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers' risk aversion.     

Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment

This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.     

Uncertainty,Generic Strategy,Strategic Clarity,and Performance of Retail SMEs in Peru,Argentina, and the United States

This study examines the links among perceived environmental uncertainty, generic strategy, strategic clarity, and performance in small and medium‐sized enterprises in the retail industry in Argentina, Peru, and the United States. Moderate support was found for links between the defender strategy and competitive uncertainty, the prospector strategy and technology uncertainty, and the analyzer strategy and market uncertainty. In all three nations, businesses with high and low strategic clarity—the extent to which a single generic strategy reflects the organization's strategic intent—outperformed those with moderate strategic clarity. Differences across nations are addressed, and future research opportunities are elaborated.     

Identification and analysis of industry cycles

Ever since Schumpeter first identified industry cycles as the characteristic form of capitalist development, with upturns creating opportunities for profit and downturns providing scope for restructuring, the topic has attracted occasional interest by business researchers - but never the sustained interest that the subject warrants. Most studies in cyclical dynamics focus on the macroeconomy, and largely deal with forecasting. This article focuses by contrast on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management. This introductory paper discusses the fundamentals of industry cycle identification, and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights. The study illustrates these approaches with industrial data from the global semiconductor industry. The argument is that the study of cyclical industrial dynamics provides the foundation for wider studies of innovation and technology management.     

Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange

This study investigates the extent to which herding towards the market consensus for Russian stocks is driven by fundamental and non-fundamental factors. We find evidence that investors on the Moscow Exchange herd without any reference to fundamentals during unanticipated financial crises coupled with high uncertainty, in falling markets, and during days with extreme upward oil price movements. In contrast, in periods of high liquidity and on days of international sanction announcements during the Ukrainian crisis, herding behaviour is merely driven by fundamentals. In Russia, macroeconomic news releases induce both information-related herding and herding without any reference to fundamentals. These results suggest that motives of investors' herding behaviour vary under specific market conditions such as market trends, liquidity, uncertainty, arrival of new information, and oil price volatility.     

Market Reactions to Increased Reliability of Sustainability Information

This article investigates whether investors consider the reliability of companies’ sustainability information when determining the companies’ market value. Specifically, we examine market reactions (in terms of abnormal returns) to events that increase the reliability of companies’ sustainability information but do not provide markets with additional sustainability information. Controlling for competing effects, we regard companies’ additions to an internationally important sustainability index as such events and consider possible determinants for market reactions. Our results suggest that first, investors take into account the reliability of sustainability information when determining the market value of a company and second, the benefits of increased reliability of sustainability information vary cross-sectionally. More specifically, companies that carry higher risks for investors (e.g., higher systematic investment risk, higher financial leverage, and higher levels of opportunistic management behavior) react more strongly to an increase in the reliability of sustainability information. Finally, we show that the benefits of an increase in the reliability of sustainability information are higher in times of economic uncertainty (e.g., during economic downturns and generally high stock price volatilities).     

Service strategy to improve operational capabilities in the public sector

ABSTRACT

Public institutions, such as emergency services, face unique operational challenges because they do not have a clear profit motive, operate in a political system as opposed to a market system, and have a fragmented authority structure. This study applies traditional operations and service strategy theory to the not-for-profit, public sector context. Synthesizing research from these theoretical domains, a contingency framework is developed to determine the effect of environmental uncertainty and strategic choices on operational capabilities in emergency services under different governance structures. Operations strategy research traditionally uses survey-based measures, while emergency services research focuses on mathematical modeling techniques. In contrast, this study analyzes archival data with 9800 emergency incidents using hierarchical regression. The results support that in the public not-for-profit context, strategic choices mediate the impact of environmental uncertainty on operational capability. Furthermore, governance structure moderates the impact of environmental uncertainty and strategic choices.     

The influence of oil price uncertainty on stock liquidity

Using high-frequency intraday data, this study provides strong empirical evidence that elevated oil price uncertainty has a significant and negative influence on stock liquidity. More specifically, the results suggest that large oil-related corporations are most affected, followed by small-listed firms more generally. Further analysis reveals that liquidity providers widen the bid-ask spreads to protect themselves during periods of high oil price uncertainty for large-listed firms, particularly those in the oil industry. These findings are robust to various measures of oil price uncertainty, different market conditions, structural break analysis and show the influence of oil price movements extends to stock liquidity.     

Hierarchical Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Entrepreneurship in Changing Industrial Environments

The research fields of dynamic capabilities and strategic entrepreneurship have developed concurrently but separately. This study aims to bridge the gap in research on the underlying linkage between the two independent areas, both of which are critical for firms to sustain competitiveness in changing industrial environments. Drawing upon insights from the integrated perspective of hierarchical dynamic capabilities, strategic entrepreneurship, and environmental dynamics, an explicit theoretical framework is put forward to achieve a better understanding of the ways through which hierarchical dynamic capabilities promote strategic entrepreneurship. Moreover, through the proposed theoretical lens, this study further explores the detailed mechanisms of how first-order and second-order dynamic capabilities improve strategic entrepreneurship with regard to uncertainty of market conditions.     

Multidimensional brand equity and asymmetric risk

The authors investigate the extent to which central customer-based brand equity dimensions (Differentiation, Relevance, Esteem, Knowledge, and Energy) influence a firm’s systematic risk (i.e., beta) during both market upturns and downturns. The results demonstrate that aggregating upside and downside beta or different dimensions of brand equity masks the true associations which can be seen only in the disaggregate analyses. The authors find that Relevance and Knowledge play roles as stabilizers, showing negative relationships with both upside gains and downside risk, while Esteem plays the role of protector, showing a negative relationship with only downside losses and not influencing upside gains; Energy acts as a booster, being positively associated with a firm’s potential gains in a period of market growth without increasing the firm’s expected losses during a bad market. The positive relationship of Energy with aggregate risk could be misleading as it hides the beneficial effect of Energy as a booster. The authors also find that Relevance is the most important consideration when people make choices in bad market situations, while Energy becomes the most crucial deciding factor in good market situations. Taking advantage of the multidimensional constructs of brand equity while allowing for the asymmetrical characteristics of risk enables managers to capture the differential role of each brand equity dimension in influencing firm risks, which leads to more sophisticated strategic decisions regarding risk management. In addition to general brand strategy, the authors provide tailored brand strategies to firms from different industries or with different financial characteristics.     

The evolution of strategic asset-seeking acquisitions by emerging market multinationals

We study the extent to which emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) engage in strategic asset-seeking acquisitions in advanced countries in relation to the strength of their home- and host-country national innovation system (NIS). We suggest that early acquisitions by EMNEs were used to compensate for the EMNEs relatively weak home NIS, and targeted weaker host NIS to limit the cognitive gap EMNEs would need to address. Instead, more recent acquisitions by EMNEs are supported by a stronger home NIS, and target firms in stronger host NIS. We also propose that acquisitions by high-tech (versus non-high-tech) EMNEs need a stronger home NIS due to the technological complexity of the industry, and are limited when the complexity of a stronger host NIS adds to the industry context. We find support for most of our arguments on 179 acquisitions in the Triad by Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese multinationals.     

Selling to strategic customers with cost uncertainty

Production cost can be influenced by previous sales in an uncertain way. In reality, production cost may decrease in the number of initial buyers due to the learning effect, or increase in the number of initial buyers due to the quality-improving pressure from negative comments of unhappy users. Taking this uncertainty into account, this paper studies the optimal intertemporal pricing strategies of a firm when selling to strategic customers in two periods where production cost in the second period randomly changes with the number of buyers in the first period. Our results suggest how firms should adjust their optimal pricing strategies under different market circumstances.     

An investigation of the black-box supplier integration in new product development

This research examines black-box supplier integration in new product development (NPD). A model and several hypotheses are proposed to study the relationship between product task characteristics (importance and complexity), supplier integration, and product performance. Data from 136 U.S. high-tech firms were used to test the hypotheses. Results suggest that assessing the importance and complexity of NPD tasks is critical to the implementation of supplier integration innovation strategy. Firms are likely to perform NPD tasks that are related to firms' core competencies in-house. They tend to externalize complex tasks to suppliers in order to utilize suppliers' resources and to increase NPD speed. The black-box supplier integration influences the speed to market. However, it is more effective on speed to market when technology uncertainty is low than when technology uncertainty is high.     

Portfolio Quality and Mutual Fund Performance

This study investigates how the quality of stocks owned by mutual funds affects the performance of those funds during 2000–2009. The quality of a stock is positively related to its size, while quality is inversely related to volatility. Evidently, stocks in the lowest quality decile perform particularly poorly amidst volatile market conditions with a mean monthly Daniel, Grinblatt, Titman and Wermers (DGTW) alpha 1.93% [25.73% per annum (pa)] less than high‐quality stocks. Furthermore, funds which hold the lowest quality stocks exhibit substantial underperformance, particularly during market downturns, with funds in the lowest decile of quality incurring a mean monthly DGTW alpha 0.96% (12.14% pa) lower than their higher quality counterparts. Interestingly, we discover a trend to funds investing in higher quality stocks over time.     

Interorganizational imitation heuristics arising from cognitive frames

The literature on organizational imitation mostly disregards its cognitive aspect. Yet, imitation is a cognitive heuristic. The study draws a unifying framework of imitation theories through a cognitive lens in the context of innovation adoptions. The premise is that organizations imitate in order to improve the status quo or to avoid losing it. The interaction of the framing of imitation and the organization's evaluation of an innovation as threats or opportunities results in the use of combinations of the two most popular imitation heuristics – “imitate the successful” and “imitate the majority.” Since the framings dictate different imitation timings, the speed of innovation diffusion depends on these interactions. The study contributes to the organizational learning literature by proposing that social learning is subject to interpretations resulting in the use of different imitation heuristics. Its contribution to the decision-making literature is that complex strategic decisions employ imitation heuristics from Gigerenzer's adaptive toolbox.     

Risk,Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Behavior in South Africa

This study investigates the role of market sentiment and foreign policy uncertainty in explaining rand price fluctuations using monthly data from 1995M2 to 2017M8. Empirical results from the pair copula analysis indicate no dependence between foreign policy uncertainties and rand returns when market sentiment is controlled for. Furthermore, change in market sentiment seems to drive fluctuations in rand exchange rate suggesting that exchange rate behavior is indeed unpredictable as market sentiment captures both risk and uncertainty. These results are robust across pre- and post-recent financial crisis periods; hence confirming the ability of pair copula to model extreme events.     

The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

战略投资决策中的实物期权思维方式

在现代市场经济条件下,传统投资决策方法已不适应由于环境的不确定性而产生的动态战略投资管理的需要。而实物期权思维方式在一定程度上弥补了传统投资决策方法的不足,帮助企业管理者在不确定性环境下做出正确决策。