建设工程业主与承包商招标后合同价格谈判的博弈分析

本文目的在于对业主和承包商在招投标后的合同谈判机理进行研究。对于经过招标的合同谈判,招标活动分两种情况,第一种情况为公开招标,第二种情况为邀请招标。对公开招标,本文指出了垄断性围标对于业主的风险,并且将存在寡头及多头竞争的公开招标并入邀请招标进行研究。在邀请招标情况下,假设业主根据各方报价和技术标得分,选定某一家单位作为合同谈判对象。对在各种信息对称、不对称情况下,对于双方的序贯博弈过程进行分析。     

Mutual excitation between OECD stock and oil markets: A conditional intensity extreme value approach

We analyze the degree of mutual excitation that exists between extreme events across the stock markets of OECD member nations and the Brent and WTI crude oil markets. For this analysis, marked point process models are proposed which are able to capture the dynamics of the intensity of occurrence and comovement during periods of crisis. The results show a significant, negative interdependence between most OECD markets, especially those of the USA, Japan and France. These major oil importing countries display links between equity market losses and positive returns in both oil markets. However, positive interdependence is not observed between any of the OECD countries except for South Korea. The great advantage of this methodology is that, apart from using the size distribution of extreme events, it also uses the occurrence times of extreme events as a source of information. With this information, these models are better able to capture the stylized facts of extreme events in financial markets such as clustering behavior and cross-excitation.     

Real estate collateral value and investment: The case of China

Previous research on the United States and Japan finds economically large impacts of changing real estate collateral value on firm investment that amplified the business cycles of those countries. Working with unique data on land values in 35 major Chinese markets and a panel of firms outside the real estate industry, we estimate investment equations that yield no evidence of a collateral channel effect. Further analysis indicates that China’s debt is not characterized by the frictions that give rise to collateral channel effects elsewhere. Essentially, financially constrained borrowers appear able credibly to commit to repay debt in China. While there is no impact on investment via the collateral channel, our results should not be interpreted as implying there will be no negative fallout from a potential real estate bust on the Chinese economy. There likely would be, but through different channels.     

Strategic decisions regarding the vertical integration of human resource organizations: evidence for an integrated HR model for the financial services and non-financial services industry in Germany,Austria and Switzerland

We examine the drivers of vertical integration for an integrated and unified HR-process model for 42 large companies from the financial services (13 companies) and the non-financial services sector (29 companies). The basis of this paper is formed by the results of a survey analysing the structures, processes and sourcing activities of human resource organizations. We sent the survey to 500 companies in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The survey is based on an integrated process model that uses an employee life-cycle approach and differentiates between eight HR activities.

The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, to gain insights into the current status of HR outsourcing and understand the differences between the financial services and the non-financial services industry. Second, to develop a theory-based framework (transaction-cost, resource-based, principal agent) enabling us to derive and test eight hypotheses using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)-regression analysis in order to examine the determinants of the vertical integration of HR processes. Third, to analyse the impact of the vertical integration of HR departments on company performance and characteristics. We find significant differences in the level of vertical integration between the HR subprocesses analysed. Even the processes with increased outsourcing activities (i.e. a lower degree of vertical integration) still show a relatively high proportion of in-house production.

Regression analysis reveals a significant negative interrelationship between the relative size of the HR department compared to company size and vertical integration. This finding holds for the HR subprocesses ‘Personnel Administration’, ‘Payroll and Benefits’, and ‘Off Boarding’. Second, we find a significant negative correlation between financial performance in terms of Return-on-Equity and vertical integration of ‘HR-IT’. We also find support for the theoretical framework for the subprocess ‘HR-Top Management’. Six hypotheses (out of eight) are supported by the analyses; two of these are highly significant.

Three major findings are noteworthy when analysing company performance and the vertical integration of HR departments. First, we find that large companies (in terms of total staff and total assets) display significantly high levels of vertical integration for subprocesses which include a large amount of manual work and crucial managerial, controlling and reporting tasks (‘HR-Top Management’ and ‘HR-Controlling and Reporting’). Second, large companies (in terms of total company staff) show lower levels of vertical integration for the HR subprocess ‘HR-IT’. Third, companies that show superior financial performance in terms of Return on Equity (RoE) display lower levels of vertical integration for the HR subprocess ‘HR-IT’.     

The impact of vertical integration on inventory turnover and operating performance

This paper investigates how vertical integration may influence inventory turnover and firm operating performance. A causal model is developed to investigate the effects of vertical integration on three types of inventory, namely raw materials inventory (RMI), work in progress inventory (WIPI) and finished goods inventory (FGI). The model tests the interactions between inventory types and the consequences of inventory turnover performance on various aspects of firm performance including costs and profitability. In particular, path analysis supports systematic differences with respect to how vertical integration affects RMI, WIPI and FGI. Vertical integration has a positive effect on RMI and FGI turnover but no significant effect on WIPI turnover. FGI contributes to a reduction in supporting processes costs which causes an improvement in return on sales (ROSs). Vertical integration impacts ROS directly.     

在金融危机下发放消费券促消费扩内需的博弈分析

众所周知,2008年注定对世界、对中国来说都是不平凡的一年。始于美国的由于次贷危机引发的金融危机至今都没见减缓的迹象。甚至有愈演愈烈之势,何时见底,没人知晓。同时,在全球经济一体化不断深入的进程中,中国岂能独善其身。自2008年下半年开始,我国的出口额明显下降,并在2009年上半年延续着继续下降的趋势。然而,在这全球经济增缓,甚至下降的环境下,我国为实现我们既定的长期目标,提出了2009年GDP的增长8％的目标,并分解落实到各地方政府。由此,各地方政府为了完成中央下达的增长目标,特别是在以出口为主的沿海城市,开始了一场浩浩荡荡的发行消费券,其中又以旅游券为甚的运作（以下统称消费券）,想以此来促消费,扩内需,保GDP增长。本文拟运用博弈理论首先分析这场运作产生的原因并分析其实效,同时剖析其产生的外在博弈条件,最后提出从实现国家总体目标的考虑方向提出了相应解决的措施建议。     

Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.     

The impact of policy,political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey

This paper examines the impact of policy, political, and economic uncertainty on firm-level capital investment in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey. Our results indicate an insignificant relationship between uncertainty and investment in these countries. This finding is robust to six different uncertainty measures, including time-series uncertainty indices that track either local or global uncertainty and country-level electoral activities. The results are also robust to two different proxies for measuring corporate investment. Overall, the real-option mechanism in which firms delay irreversible investment in uncertain times does not hold in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey.     

Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices

In this article we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price; hence, we analyze bivariate data. We first estimate the mean of the two time series, and then in a second step we estimate the residuals. The mean equation is estimated by ordinary least squares and the elastic net, and the residuals are estimated by maximum likelihood. Our contribution is to include a bivariate jump component in a mean reverting jump diffusion model in the residuals. The models’ forecasts are evaluated with use of four different criteria, including the energy score to measure whether the correlation structure between the time series is properly included. It is observed that the models with bivariate jumps provide better results with the energy score, which means that it is important to consider this structure to properly forecast correlated time series.     

我国城市群经济整合的理论与实践

文章基于区域经济发展和城市群发展两个视角分别从经济全球化、区域经济发展、区域分工与合作、城市群内部的产业集聚与扩散、城市群内部的企业扩张和内部的网络化组织的促进作用等几个方面就城市群经济整合进行了理论上的阐述论证.最后,论文从城市群内部的产业整合、市场整合、基础设施整合和区域协调机制的建立等四个方面进行城市群经济整合实证方面的研究.     

Financing flexibility: The case of outsourcing

We investigate the relationship between the extent and timing of vertical flexibility and the financial choices of a firm. By vertical flexibility we mean partial/total and reversible outsourcing of a necessary input. A firm simultaneously selects the vertical setting and the financial sources of investment in flexibility, in particular debt and venture capital. A loan may come from a lender that requires the payment of a fixed coupon over time and an option to buy out the firm in certain circumstances. Debt leads to the same level of flexibility of an unlevered firm. Yet investment occurs earlier. The injection of venture capital reduces the quest for vertical flexibility and speeds up investment. Then, there arises a fresh substitutability between a financial (venture capital) and a real variable (vertical flexibility).     

The impact of competition on vertical integration: The role of technological niche width

Despite there being numerous studies exploring the relationship between competition and vertical integration, the empirical findings regarding the nature of this relationship are still unclear. The current study suggests that technological niche width mediates the relationship between competition and vertical integration. It also suggests that technological niche width and vertical integration play a complementary role in enhancing firm performance. These arguments have found empirical support in the examination of the U.S. hybrid electric vehicle market from 2008 to 2016. In so doing, this study provides an opportunity to better understand the relationship between competition, vertical integration, and technological niche width. In addition, it explains how firms can effectively manage fierce competition and achieve the goal of superior performance through strategic decisions regarding vertical integration and technological niche width.     

A model of information diffusion with asymmetry and confidence effects in financial markets

We present a model of multi-period continuous information diffusion in financial markets. We show that price and trading volume exhibit asymmetric term structures to information flow, where the diffusion rate accelerates more slowly at short horizons than it decelerates at long horizons. Bounded rationality is modelled by an endogenous trader confidence index which declines as stock price information becomes noisier, where lower confidence translates into lower trading volume and slower price accretion. Information diffusion slows and asymmetries are accentuated as traders lose confidence in information accuracy. Our empirical findings support the model's predictions of asymmetric momentum patterns and confidence effects.     

The configuration between supply chain integration and information technology competency: A resource orchestration perspective

Research indicates that deploying appropriate information technology (IT) competency in a manner that fits the supply chain integration (SCI) of a firm induces superior firm performance; however, our understanding of how to empirically conceptualize and assess the performance effect of the fit remains limited. Drawing upon resource orchestration theory and the literature on fit assessment methodologies, our study employs both a contingency and a configuration perspective to conceptualize and operationalize “fit.” The results of a survey of 196 firms in China provide the first empirical evidence for the existence and nature of interrelationships between multiple components of SCI and IT competency and their effects on firm performance. In particular, fit as “moderation” approach indicates that IT competency could strengthen the relationship between SCI and both operational and financial performance. Fit as “profile deviation” approach further reveals that the more similar the IT competency configurations are to those of the top performers in the high-level SCI group, the higher their operational and financial performance are. However, in the medium- and low-level SCI groups, the SCI-IT competency fit is significantly positively associated with financial performance and insignificantly associated with operational performance. The theoretical contributions and managerial implications of the study are discussed.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the G7 stock markets: A time-frequency analysis

We examine the co-movement of the G7 stock returns with the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and causalities based on daily data from December 31, 2019 to November 13, 2020. We employ the wavelet coherence approach to measure the impact of the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths on the G7 stock markets. Our findings reveal that both the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths exhibit strong coherence with the G7 equity markets, although we find heterogeneous results for the Canadian and Japanese equity markets, in which the numbers of COVID-19 cases and the deaths exhibit only a weak relationship. This evidence is more pronounced in the long-term horizon rather than the short-term horizon. Moreover, the lead-lag relationship entails a mix of lead-lag relations across different countries. We present the implications of these findings for both policymakers and the international investment community.     

Linkages between emerging and developed equity markets: Empirical evidence in the PMG framework

This paper empirically investigates the international equity market causal links between Central and South-Eastern Europe, on the one hand, and developed countries (Western Europe and the United States), on the other hand, over the monthly sample period spanning from October 2000 to September 2012. Unlike previous studies, we use the pooled mean group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999), which is suitable to estimate dynamic heterogeneous panels to draw reliable conclusions. After cointegration is found between the stock markets of interest, the PMG estimates show evidence of each market's sensitivity to the fluctuations of the other markets over both the short- and long-run, supporting the feedback hypothesis. The impact of developed markets on emerging markets is more important than that of emerging markets on developed markets and the bidirectional impact is higher between emerging and Western European markets than between these emerging markets and the United States. These conclusions are robust to an alternative specification, which supports the view that the stock markets are closely interlinked. The findings are of great interest and have important implications for policy makers, investors, and practitioners.     

US foreign direct investment,macro markets and labour relations: the case of enlarged Europe

The rise of macro markets such as the European Single market recalibrates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and national locations. Previous research has ignored the impact of macro markets theoretically and empirically. The article therefore challenges conventional wisdom on the impact of national properties on FDI.     

The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum

We study the behaviours of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. We investigate how the two markets responded to the announcement of the voting results by employing a Bayesian updating methodology to update prior opinion about the likelihood of the final outcome of the vote. We then relate the voting model to the real-time evolution of the market-determined prices as the results were announced. We find that, although both markets appear to be inefficient in absorbing the new information contained in the vote outcomes, the betting market seems less inefficient than the FX market. The different rates of convergence to the fundamental value between the two markets lead to highly profitable arbitrage opportunities.