环保投资与经济增长的协整及因果关系检验——基于1981～2005年的数据分析

使用Granger因果关系检验法检验我国1981～2005年间的环保投资增量和GDP增量的因果性,发现GDP增量的变化是引起环保投资增量变化的原因,通过协整和误差修正模型对两者的长期和短期关系进行了研究。研究发现,我国环保投资增量与GDP增量间存在着可靠的协整关系。这说明随着我国经济的快速持续发展,保持两者的均衡发展具有重要的意义,最后提出基本结论以及相关的政策建议。     

FDI与经济增长效应的实证分析——以河南省为例

本文根据河南省1985～2010年外商直接投资(FDI)和国内生产总值(GDP)的数据,综合运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等一系列计量经济手段,分析河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,FDI每增加1％,GDP就增加0.343％;当FDI短期波动偏离长期均衡时,经济系统将以0.087的调整力度将短期非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态;Granger因果关系检验表明,在10％的显著水平下,FDI对GDP具有单向的正向因果关系.     

中国房地产业与宏观经济波动关系的实证研究

房地产业与宏观经济波动联系密切。以1998—2010年的季度数据为样本数据,以房地产投资额与商品房销售额为解释变量,通过对房地产业与宏观经济波动关系进行实证分析表明：房地产开发投资额、商品房销售额与GDP之间存在着显著的Granger双向因果关系。我国房地产投资以及房屋销售额与GDP之间存在稳定的均衡关系：短期来看,商品房销售额变动对国民经济有较大影响;长期来看,房地产投资对国民经济的影响较大。并就相关结论提出具体的政策建议。     

新常态下我国房地产回调对经济增长的影响效应

近年来,我国房地产回调与宏观经济新常态并行,房地产主要指标与GDP增速的波动特征相似.本文构建自回归与误差修正模型,反映房地产与经济增长之间的短期影响与长期均衡动态关系.实证研究表明,我国房地产对GDP具有显著的弹性影响与长期均衡作用.自房地产显现回调以来,房地产投资与房价仍然是影响经济增长的先行指标,且短期影响显著增强;但商品房销售对经济增长的短期影响明显减弱.从长期来看,房地产信贷和土地成交价与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,其影响系数较大.同时,房地产与经济增长的长期均衡关系发生偏离的调整速度明显加快,这有利于宏观经济运行保持平稳性.     

房地产投资对经济增长的影响

本文运用协整理论,对武汉市1995—2005年间的房地产开发投资与GDP的数据进行分析研究．结果表明两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,通过对其建立误差修正模型．可以看出两者之间长期均衡和短期波动的关系．房地产投资是经济增长的格兰杰原因。     

上海对外贸易与经济增长的协整分析

运用协整方法和误差修正模型,考察了上海对外贸易进口、出口、消费、投资与经济增长五者之间的关系。实证研究结果表明:对外贸易进口、出口、消费、投资与经济增长之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,对外贸易出口与消费分别是经济增长的Granger原因,而经济增长则是投资的Granger原因;从短期来看,三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较快,且消费的短期波动对中国经济增长的短期变化影响比较明显,进口和投资也在一定程度上影响GDP的变化。     

中国房地产投资对国民经济包容性增长的实证研究

基于我国1994～2011年房地产投资额与GDP的数据,利用协整分析和Granger因果关系检验考察房地产投资与国民经济包容性增长的关系问题。实证结果表明:房地产投资促进国民经济包容性增长,二者存在长期均衡关系。另外,在相关数据和实证结果的基础上,针对我国房地产市场的现状和问题提出了政策建议。     

基于时间序列数据的中国碳排放强度影响因素协整分析

参考IPCC的方法,估算了我国1985-2013年碳排放强度,运用协整检验、误差修正模型等方法分析了能源结构、城市化与经济增长对我国碳排放强度的长期均衡关系以及短期波动影响。结果显示:(1)能源结构、城市化和人均GDP与我国碳排放强度之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,三个变量对碳排放强度的弹性系数分别为1.98、0.97和-0.65,过分依赖煤炭的能源结构是我国节能减排的最大障碍。(2)碳排放强度的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将会以-0.226的调整力度从非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。最后,据此提出政策建议。     

财政环保投资影响清洁发展的实证分析

对清洁发展起促进作用的财政支出主要是指对环境保护的投资,环保投资除了环境效益外,还包括经济效益和社会效益。通过建立环保投资环境效益模型,证明环保投资与环境质量改善二者呈倒U型关系;并通过环保投资对经济增长作用的机理分析和现实关联性分析,证明环保投资与经济增长各指标间不存在显著相关性,但存在短期波动和长期均衡关系。     

城镇化发展与县域经济增长关系的实证分析

文章采用协整技术和误差修正模型,并且结合格兰杰因果关系检验分析方法,分析了城镇化发展和县域经济增长的关系,旨在探讨我国城镇化发展与县域经济增长的长期均衡关系,以及短期波动的传导模式。分析结果表明,无论从长期还是短期来看,我国城镇化发展与县域经济增长都是互为因果的关系。     

Co-Integration and Causality Testing of the Energy–GDP Relationship: A Cross-Country Study

In this paper, the energy–GDP relationship (in per capita terms) is analysed for a sample of 16 countries, over the time period 1950–51 to 1984–85. Co-integration theory is first used to test whether a long-run equilibrium relation exists between the two variables. After co-integration has been established, causality measures are constructed to quantify various types of feedback between energy and GDP for each country. It is then examined whether the causality measures are longitudinally related to certain basic economic indicators of the countries in the sample.     

我国GDP形成中供给和需求因素作用的比较分析

实际GDP的形成是社会累积供给和累积累求平衡后实现的，是累积供给因素和累积需求因素短边效果的体现。我们选取工业生产增加值代表经济的供给成分，选取社会消费品零售总额代表经济的消费需求成分，比较它们同实际GDP之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动模式。通过使用协整检验和误差修正模型，我们发现，从供给和需求角度量实际GDP，它们具有类似的长期趋势，但它们在短期波动模式上却存在显著差别，这表明我国当前经济运行当中消费需求驱动成分更为显著，体现了买方市场的基本特征和一定程度的需求不足。     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY OF JAPAN: A DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the fiscal sustainability of Japan by applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to the Japanese economy. By introducing intermediation costs into the model, we succeed in explaining the observed relationship between the interest and GDP growth rates, which is crucial in testing for sustainability. When the projected real growth rate is 2.5%, the average real interest rate becomes 2.57%, and the debt‐to‐GDP ratio gradually increases stochastically so that government debt is not sustainable. To recover sustainability, the primary surplus must be 0.2% of GDP.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

Dynamic trend analysis on relational effect of environmental protection industry in China

EPI （environmental protection indastry） and three industries constitute aur national economic structuse. By Grey System Theory and correlation effect analytical method for the first time, this paper analyzes the relatioaship degree between environmental protection industry and the three causes including industries involved in China in both qualitative and quantitotive aspects. Both the innate tale and the realistic reasons nf the relational degree are further analyzed by utilizing sastninoble development theory, circulating economy theol., ecological equilibrium theory, externality theory. industrial structure theory, and ecology prinrity rules. From all the analysts, this paper reveals the relationship between EPI and three industries. In addition, it offers suggestions to the feasibility of adjusting the industrial structure and developing the environmental protection industry in our country.     

江苏省财政科技支出与经济增长的协整关系研究

在对财政科技支出与经济增长关系的相关文献进行回顾的基础上,综合运用协整分析、因果关系检验等计量方法定量分析江苏省财政科技支出总量与江苏省国内生产总值之间关系。结论是：江苏省财政科技支出与经济增长之间存在正向的长期稳定的均衡关系,江苏省国内生产总值不是财政科技支出的格兰杰原因,江苏省财政科技支出是国内生产总值的格兰杰原因。最后分析结果,提出相关政策建议。     

Services sector and economic growth in India

This study examines the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic relationship between services sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and between services and nonservices sectors in India. The model is estimated using the optimal single-equation and the maximum-likelihood system estimators. All the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and GDP as well as between services and nonservices sectors. The estimates of long-run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators. The conventional Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and the new CUSUM and Moving Sum (MOSUM) tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series. The error correction model provides some support for unidirectional Granger-causality from services sector to GDP. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between services sector and GDP and between services and nonservices sectors. The stable growth of services sector is essentially crucial to absorb the adverse effects of exogenous weather shocks in agriculture and industry and provide resilience to the economy.     

中国木质林产品出口贸易结构与林业经济增长——基于1981～2009年数据的分析

与世界主要木质林产品出口大国(地区)相比,中国劳动密集型木质林产品出口比重过大。基于1981~2009年间数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,分析中国劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业经济增长的关系,认为我国林业总产值与各类木质林产品的出口之间存在长期的均衡关系,资源密集型木质林产品出口与林业产值存在单向Granger因果关系,劳动密集型和资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业产值之间存在双向Granger因果关系。     

电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例

运用Granger因果关系和误差修正模型,分析新疆电力与GDP以及三次产业之间的长期均衡关系.结果表明,新疆电力与经济的Granger因果关系是从GDP到装机容量和用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡看,GDP每增加1％,用电量增长1.1136％,装机容量增长0.9525％,经济增长对电力有效利用的促进作用显著.第一、二、三产业都是从产业增加值到用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡来看,第一、二、三次产业增加值每增加1％,用电量分别增长1.4215％、1.0887％和0.9533％.基于电力与经济的关系,新疆应做好电力规划,避免电力工业的产能过剩,优化产业结构,降低能耗,促进经济可持续发展.     

Empirical study on the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export

Using data from 1978–2005, this paper estimates RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment respectively, and uses Engle-Granger (E-G) two-step method, error correction model to analyze the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export. Because China is the economic transitional country with the character of dualistic economic structure, this paper introduces a control variant into the model which is the gap between agriculture and industry contribution to GDP. Conclusion shows that this model is more credible and stable. There is an obvious cointegration between China’s export and RMB exchange rate misalignment, real effective exchange rate, domestic GDP and foreign weighted average GDP. RMB exchange rate misalignment has an obvious negative influence on China’s export, but it has self-corrected dynamic mechanism. Then using binary Logit model, this paper concludes that the bigger RMB underestimated misalignment is, the bigger net export probability is, which is good for export. The bigger RMB overestimated misalignment is, the smaller net export probability is, which is bad for export.