中国储蓄猛劲增长致因分析

2004年4月抹11．9万亿储蓄余额，逼近了2003年全面国内生产总值。对于经济发展依然需求资金支撑的中国而言，似乎可喜可贺。然而，需求约束下的“过剩”使得需求对经济增长的拉动作用乏力，投资和消费扩张的动力不足，却形成储蓄向投资转化的障碍，或者是经济结构不合理，造成储蓄资金更进一步向过剩经济部门配置，最终造成资金效率损失。什么原因造成了居民储蓄欲望的加速增长?     

储蓄过剩时代的宏观政策选择

中国经济增长已从供给约束型转化为需求约束型，私人部门消费不足和投资不足导致的储蓄过剩成为其宏观经济运行的基本特征。储蓄过剩降低了货币的流动性，削弱了货币政策对产出的影响，使经济增长更加依赖财政赤字和进出口贸易，也使贸易政策和财政政策面临两难选择。为维持总量平衡，保持适度的经济增长，政府应充分发挥宏观调控的作用。具体而言，运用财政政策改善供给、增加消费；运用货币政策实现货币稳定和金融稳定，促进储蓄向投资的转化。     

对我国资本市场现状的调查与分析

投资是经济增长的推动剂,而储蓄则为投资提供必要的资金来源。一段时期以来,我国拥有高额储蓄,即充足的资金供给,可却一直不能满足资金需求,造成大量资金闲置,作为调和资金供需平衡的资本市场作为储蓄转化成投资的途径之一,对经济发展起着重要作用,因此,本文针对我国资本市场的现状进行了调查和分析。     

流动性过剩呼唤资本市场发展

一、流动性过剩的界定与成因(一)流动性过剩含义的界定我们通常所说的流动性过剩,是指相对于流通的商品(或资本品),提供的交易货币数量显得过多了,于是就有了投资/经济过热现象以及通货膨胀的危险;以及资金的相对供给过剩所造成的资本品价格的过快上涨。(二)流动性过剩的成因从经济增长的长期视角看,我国储蓄率持续高于投资率是出现流动性过剩的根本性因素。造成这种现象的主要原因在于我国目前正处于社会保障转型时期,由于尚未形成完善的医疗、养老、失业保险等制度保障,未来收入带有很大的不确定性,使居民更倾向于增加储蓄降低消费,从而使得边际储蓄倾向居高不下的现象长期存在。从中期来看,流动性过剩则是我国经济周期性波动中结构失衡的一种表现。近年来,相对于投资和出口的高速增长,消费增速远落后于前二者。消费的相对落后限制了货币需求,于是大量资金并未进入实体经济领域,而以各种形式滞留在货币市场、资本市场及银行体系。同时,投资也存在结构失衡问题。一边是大企业资金过剩,另一边却是中小企业流动资金极其紧张;一边是某些热门行业重复投资导致的产能过剩,另一边则是医疗、教育等部门投资严重不足。从短期来看,我国流动性过剩的出现直接受制于世界性的经济失衡。“...     

我国商业银行流动性过剩问题对策研究

资金过剩成为当前商业银行面临的主要问题。流动性过剩、劳动力过剩、产品过剩成为中国当前过剩经济的三大内容。银行业作为整个经济运行的中枢,资金供求不足与过剩都将对经济平稳运行产生重大影响。     

定西：劳动力转移，农村金融需求在增加

近年来，针对农村富余劳动力多、农民增收困难的实际，定西市提出了“出去就是增收．输出就是就业”的劳动力转移发展战略，大力推行培训、就业、维权“三位一体”的工作模式。随着劳务经济的纵深发展，定西市的农村地区经济结构不断优化，农村经济主体发展速度明显加快，经营规模不断扩张，资金需求明显增长。     

经济增长、结构失衡与流动性过剩——论我国当前流动性过剩的成因与对策

由于社会保障制度的不完善和分配结构的不合理,经济增长带来居民收入增长的同时,消费需求难以有效放大,储蓄和净出口的高增长成为必然。储蓄的高增长导致银行的存贷差上升,其分流导致股市和房市的流动性过剩;净出口的持续高增长和国际资本的大量涌入导致国际收支持续的高顺差。由于汇率缺乏弹性,基础货币的被动增加和货币乘数的预期外上升一并导致货币供给过剩。强化储备货币发行国的发行约束;调整外贸发展战略,优化产业结构;扩大消费需求;扩大汇率浮动区间;提高货币政策的科学性等措施可以有效控制和利用流动性过剩。     

促进储蓄与证券业协调发展的途径

随着社会主义市场经济的发展,社会融资方式已打破银行间接融资的垄断局面,储蓄分流势在必然。根据储蓄分流的客观现实,因势利导做好工作,大力促进储蓄与证券业的协调发展,是我们当前需要研究的问题。 储蓄与证券业的发展,基础最原始的乃是双方都需注入大量的资金,因而两者是矛盾的、对立的,但同时也必须看到,两者不乏共同之处,它们都受制于群众的收入水平,都需以市场经济为导向,都是为解决经济建设的资金需求,在一定的条件下,两者不但是统一的。     

券商大看台

资金推动的效应进一步强化07年,宏观调控的主基调是合理控制投资增长和扩大内需,投资增速将小幅放缓,与此同时,全球经济回调将降低出口需求增速,预期07年我国经济增速将由06年的10.5%回调至9.5%,居民消费物价涨幅在2%左右。贸易顺差刚性增长导致经济体系流动性过剩格局继续维持     

金融结构视角下的金融功能观

一、金融结构与金融功能的关联性分析 罗纳德·I·麦金农(1973)和爱德华·肖(1973)认为,金融体制与经济发展之间存在相互推动和相互制约的关系.一方面,健全的金融体制能够将储蓄资金有效地动员起来并引导到生产性投资上去,从而促进经济发展:另一方面,发展良好的经济反过来也通过国民收入的提高和经济活动主体对金融服务的需求的增长来刺激金融业的发展.     

Assessing the impact of export processing zones on economic growth in Ghana

The study examines the impact of free zones exports and investments on economic growth in Ghana. A vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to ascertain the impact of the Free Zones Programme on economic growth in Ghana on a quarterly time series data spanning 1998–2015. The results show that both free zones exports and free zones investments have significant negative relationship with economic growth. Trade openness also has a significant negative relationship with economic growth but insignificant positive relationship with investment and export. The study concludes that the Free Zones Programme has not served its purpose of promoting economic growth in Ghana. It is universally known that the concept of free zones is actually a second best option and as such is not meant be a lasting policy for promoting economic growth. For this reason, given the negative effect the programme has had on economic growth, the Government of Ghana should scrap it and possibly look at opening up the whole country, especially in terms of infrastructure and other incentives for all firms, so that economic activity can freely take place in every corner of the country to realise balanced and more sustainable growth of the economy.     

Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis

This paper examines the ability of financial variables to predict future economic growth above and beyond past economic activity in a small open economy in the euro area. We aim to clarify potential differences in forecasting economic activity during different economic circumstances.Our results from Finland suggest that the proper choice of forecasting variables is related to general economic conditions. During steady economic growth, the preferred choice for a financial indicator is the short-term interest rate combined with past values of output growth. However, during economic turbulence, the traditional term spread and stock returns are more important in forecasting GDP growth. The time-varying predictive content of the financial variables may be utilized by applying regime-switching nonlinear forecasting models. We propose a novel application using the negative term spread and observed recession as signals to switch between regimes. This procedure yields a significant improvement in forecasting performance at the one-year forecast horizon.     

IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?

IMF loans react to economic conditions but are also sensitive to political-economy variables. Loans tend to be larger and more frequent when a country has a bigger quota and more professional staff at the IMF and when a country is more connected politically and economically to the United States and major European countries. These results are of considerable interest for their own sake. More importantly for present purposes, the results provide instrumental variables for estimating the effects of IMF loan programs on economic growth and other variables. This instrumental estimation allows us to sort out the economic effects of the loan programs from the responses of IMF lending to economic conditions. The estimates show that a higher IMF loan-participation rate reduces economic growth. IMF lending does not have significant effects on investment, inflation, government consumption, and international openness. However, IMF loan participation has small negative effects on democracy and the rule of law. The reduction in the rule of law implies an additional, indirect channel whereby IMF lending reduces economic growth.     

以内生经济增长为导向的政府财税政策取向

新的内生经济增长理论提出知识积累、技术创新是导致一国经济实现长期持续增长的源泉。目前,我国经济增长存在着严重的技术约束,限制了我国实现内生增长的路径,为此,政府必须出台切实有效的财税政策,培育实现内生增长的知识积累和技术创新的条件。     

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卢中原：中国经济增长潜力保持在9％～10％ 国务院发展研究中心副主任卢中原在国务院新闻办公室新闻吹风会上表示．经济增长速度应该在一个合理区间内上下波动,这个合理区间是由经济体增长潜力决定的．根据改革开放30年来平均增长速度推算．中国经济增长潜力大概在9％～10％。宏观调控的主要任务是通过财政金融、国家中长期规划等手段使中国经济增长速度大体稳定在合理区间内。中国经济只要能够保持9％左右的增速．就能对全球经济增长发挥重要的拉动作用。     

The Relationship Between Insurance and Economic Development: 85 Empirical Papers for a Review of the Literature

The objective of this article is to propose a review of 85 empirical papers examining the relationships between insurance and economic development, that is, the insurance‐growth nexus. When looking at the economic importance of the insurance sector, most papers in the past have looked at the demand side (the level of economic development is an explanatory variable among other factors that affect the demand for insurance). Because the role of the insurance sector and its contribution to development is at the agenda of international organizations and because the importance of the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been well recognized and emphasized in the field of economic development, more recent papers have examined the causality links between insurance and economic development and the role of insurance as a significant determinant in the process of economic growth.     

经济增长的影响因素研究

经济增长是各国经济政策的核心目标,学者们一直在理论上探寻经济增长的成因以促使目标的实现.本文通过对经济增长的衡量标准入手,评述了衡量经济增长的传统指标的理论,并结合相关的文献从制度变迁及文化角度探讨了经济增长的影响因素,旨在完善经济增长的相关理论体系,为经济政策的制定提供参考.     

税收增长与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用回归分析方法对我国税收增长与经济增长的关系进行实证分析的结果表明:我国税收增长处于合理增长范围;税收增长与经济增长关系基本协调;税收收入增长的强劲势头保持一段时期是没有问题的;税收收入必将进入与GDP增速协调发展的轨道。     

人口老龄化、养老保险基金缺口弥补与经济增长

本文构建一个包含财政支出和公共债务的世代交叠模型,以养老保险基金缺口弥补为核心内容,考察人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并探讨采用何种基金缺口弥补方式更有利于促进经济增长。研究发现,若采用财政补贴方式弥补基金缺口,生存概率上升和生育率下降均提高经济增速;若采用发行公债方式或两者兼用方式弥补基金缺口,当人力资本产出弹性较小时相应结论不变,反之则经济增速随生存概率上升呈倒U型变化趋势,随生育率下降而提高。基金缺口弥补方式是影响经济增长的重要制度因素,人力资本产出弹性较小时发行公债方式下的经济增速最高,反之则为财政补贴方式。结合我国现实,本文认为政府应探索包括发行公债在内的多种基金缺口弥补方式以更好地应对人口老龄化,实现经济长期较快增长。     

The Finance-growth Relationship and the Level of Country Development

We examine whether dynamic impacts of banks and stock markets on economic growth are related to the level of country development. Using annual data from 15 industrial and 15 emerging countries over the period from 1976 to 2005, we find that banking development and stock market development may have distinct short-and long-run impacts on economic growth at various stages of country development. Financial development is not always a panacea for economic growth. Most importantly, our findings suggest that the fully functional tools to render stable growth for a country may depend on the level of the country’s development.