中国货币供给与通货膨胀的关联性研究

关于货币供给与通货膨胀的关联性,学者们还没有形成一致的看法.理论上,货币供给与通货膨胀具有一定的关联性.通货膨胀有需求拉动型和成本推动型,在通货膨胀的原因中有“货币因素”,也有“非货币因素”.实证检验表明:中国货币供应量与物价指数不存在长期的稳定均衡关系,但货币供应量是物价指数的格兰杰原因,反之则不然.事实上,中国通货膨胀或通货膨胀压力一方面是与货币供给有关,另一方面还与结构性因素有关.因此,要实现中国经济的低通胀运行:一是实行总量均衡和结构合理的货币供给模式;二是采取更有效的货币政策;三是推进经济结构调整,实现国际收支平衡;四是深化金融体系改革,增强中央银行货币控制能力;五是进行汇率机制改革;六是通过财政政策调整供需结构.     

我国近期通货膨胀的一般原因分析——基于协整检验与VEC模型的实证研究

面对我国近期较高的通货膨胀宰,本文通过协整检验与VEC模型的数据分析,考察了经济增长,货币供给增加和原材料等成本因素与通货膨胀事的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系.分析结果显示,经济增长、货币供给增加和原材料等成本因素对物价水平有着明显的促进作用,其中成本因素对通货膨胀的作用大干经济增长、货币供给等需求拉动的作用,说明我国的通货膨胀已转向成本推动型通胀.     

治理通货膨胀应该重视财政政策的作用

我国目前的通货膨胀是由包括流动性过剩、成本推动和国际通货膨胀输入等因素形成的.其中,成本推动型通货膨胀对我国的宏观调控带来了严峻挑战.货币政策不仅对于成本推动型通货膨胀无能为力,而且在货币数量的调控方面也存在诸多局限.相反,财政政策不仅可以实施需求调节,而且还可以对供给面产生影响,因而能在治理成本推动型通货膨胀方面发挥积极作用.当前治理通货膨胀应该更加倚重财政政策.     

我国经济增长和通货膨胀对货币供给冲击的反应研究

本文在VAR模型的基础上,运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法考察了我国货币供给冲击对经济增长和通货膨胀的影响.研究表明:正向货币供给冲击对经济增长和通货膨胀均无效;负向货币供给冲击可以在不影响经济增长的情况下有效缓解通货膨胀压力;我国存在“通货膨胀螺旋”效应.     

内生货币供给与货币政策效应的理论分析和实证检验

货币供给的可控性是货币政策调控经济的基础。长期以来,经济理论界存在着货币供给内生性与外生性的争论,并在其理论基点上提出了不同的政策主张。自改革开放以来,我国经济历经通货膨胀和通货紧缩的波动,货币政策在熨平经济波动中起到了重要作用。然而,1997年我国经济陷入通货紧缩,货币当局扩张性的货币政策似乎并没有改变经济不景气的预期,货币政策效应不佳。本文从货币供给内生性的角度来探讨我国货币政策难以有效调控经济运行的原因,并在对我国宏观经济状况进行历史分析和实证检验的基础上得出结论。     

通货膨胀不确定性研究综述

通货膨胀不确定性的发生使价格信号失真,资源配置扭曲,是通货膨胀福利损失的真正症结所在.本文从通货膨胀不确定性的度量方法、通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系、通货膨胀不确定性对实际经济的影响以及治理通货膨胀不确定性的货币政策等几个方面回顾通货膨胀不确定性的研究成果.为减轻通货膨胀不确定性对经济系统的危害,建议我国货币当局建立通货膨胀预期调查数据库,并把通货膨胀不确定性作为监督宏观经济运行的一项重要指标予以重点关注和有效控制,评价货币政策效果时把通货膨胀不确定性指标作为一个参考依据.更为重要的是,控制通货膨胀不确定性应成为政府治理通货膨胀的理论和政策基础.     

我国通货膨胀与货币供给和经济增长的关系研究

基于协整检验和VAR模型选取1984～2010年的年度数据研究了通货膨胀与货币供给和经济增长之间的关系,研究表明:货币供给和经济增长都会导致通货膨胀,但通货膨胀不会引发货币超发,且一定的通货膨胀对经济增长具有正向刺激作用;货币供应量扩张对通货膨胀有促进作用,但影响程度逐步减弱,经济增长也会促使物价水平的上涨,但影响程度明显小于货币供给水平的影响;经济增长对物价水平的影响小于货币供应量对物价水平的影响,即货币供应量诱发通货膨胀,抑制通货膨胀的最好途径是解决货币供给问题;经济系统中存在"通货膨胀螺旋"效应。     

经济改革中投资扩张和通货膨胀的行为机制

<正> 一、中国改革中的货币现象 1.1 80年代通货膨胀的货币政策 中国改革十多年来的货币现象可以用持续的膨胀性货币供给增长来概括。从1981年到1991年,货币供给年增长率超过20％。与此同时,实际GNP年增长率略低于10％,货币供给平均说来是经济实际增长率的两倍。毫无疑问这种货币政策是通货膨胀性的。在此期间,政府几次试图抑制货币增长,但都只是短期内奏效。每次减缓的货币供给都不可避免地而且迅速地     

货币政策、通货膨胀预期和股票价格波动

使用1998年1月到2009年9月的月度数据分析了通货膨胀预期和货币政策对股票价格的影响。研究结果表明:我国的股票价格和通货膨胀之间具有微弱的负相关关系,通货膨胀预期并不会推高股票价格,相反,未预期的通货膨胀才会推高股票价格。股票市场对货币政策的反应是不一致的:股票价格会对预期利率的改变和未预期广义货币供应量的改变做出积极的反应。因而,中央银行在使用货币政策干预股票市场的运行时,需要考虑不同货币政策的效果是不一致的。     

中国通货膨胀福利成本的再探讨

本文在Jones、Asaftei & Wang(2004)等人工作的基础上,通过建立包含人口增长和货币利息收益的货币效用模型、计算我国的Divisia货币数量和价格指数,重新估算了我国通货膨胀的社会福利成本。研究发现,在考虑了人口增长和货币利息收益后,我国通货膨胀的福利成本大大降低。这意味着,我国在采取扩张性货币政策时,不用过多考虑通货膨胀带来的社会福利损失,从而可以提高我国货币政策的灵活性。     

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Uncertainty

This article empirically investigates the impact of inflation targeting on inflation uncertainty. We implement PARCH and GARCH methodologies to model conditional variance of inflation. We also investigate the relationship between level and volatility of inflation to analyze the validity of the Friedman hypothesis for IT countries. We find that most of the inflation targeting countries have significantly lower inflation variances after inflation targeting. In most of the IT countries, the relationship is consistent with the Friedman hypothesis.     

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence

This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation.We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence.We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s.We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.     

中国通货膨胀率及其波动关系分析

有关通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率波动影响关系,存在F riedm an-B a ll和Cuk ierm an-M e ltzer两种假说,即存在通货膨胀率及其波动的相互影响关系。使用GARCH和TGARCH模型,选择中国1993~2004年月度通货膨胀率数据,检验结果表明F riedm an-B a ll假说成立,稳健的货币政策对经济发展有积极作用。     

Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption

We present a model where agents can inflate the cost of goods needed to start an investment project and inflation variability increases monitoring costs. We show that inflation variability can lead to higher corruption and lower investment. We document a positive relationship between corruption and inflation variability in a sample of 75 countries. The effect is robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects, other controls, and 2SLS estimation. The results are economically significant: a one standard deviation increase in inflation variance from the median increases corruption by 12 percent of a standard deviation and reduces growth by 0.33 percentage points. Our paper highlights a new channel through which inflation reduces investment and growth, thus bridging the perception gap over the costs of inflation between economists and the public. We also find evidence that political competition reduces corruption and that corruption is pro-cyclical.     

Inflation Targeting and Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korea

The adoption of a credible monetary policy regime such as inflation targeting is known to reduce the persistence of inflation fluctuations. This conclusion, however, is typically derived from aggregate inflation or sectoral inflation rates, not from regional inflation data. This paper studies the regional dimension of inflation targeting; that is, the consequences of inflation targeting for regional inflation persistence. Based on data for Korean cities and provinces it is shown that the adoption of inflation targeting leads: (i) to a fall in inflation persistence at the regional level; and (ii) to a reduction in the cross‐regional heterogeneity in inflation persistence. A factor model lends further support to the role of the common component, and, hence, monetary policy, for regional inflation persistence.     

Delays of Inflation Stabilizations

In some new political economic models, delays of stabilizations result from coordination problems caused by collective choice-making mechanisms. Although several previous studies have tested the effects of political instability and fragmentation on seigniorage, deficits, or inflation, no direct tests of the influence of these factors on the delays of stabilizations have previously been undertaken. This paper reports the results of such tests. The degree of fragmentation of the political system and the level of inflation are identified as important determinants of the timing of inflation stabilizations.     

Inflation, Price Level and Hybrid Rules under Inflation Uncertainty

The performance and robustness of optimised interest rate rules are analysed in a New Keynesian model estimated for the euro area economy. In particular, we examine the properties of rules responding to inflation, the price level, or a combination of the two (a hybrid rule). All the rules also respond to the output gap. The optimal hybrid rule is only marginally superior when there is no model uncertainty. When there is uncertainty about the degree of inflation persistence, the inflation rule is the most robust rule and the performance of the other two rules deteriorates. However, all the rules perform well if the true degree of inflation persistence turns out to be less than policymakers’ estimate.