National Policy Interests in the Duty-Free Market

In 1999 the EU abolished duty-free on intra-EU travel. OtherEuropean countries and many countries outside Europe still retainduty-free shopping for international travellers, as does theEU in relation to external travel. This paper looks at nationalpolicy interests in the retention, or further abolition, ofduty-free. We note that these will relate closely to the structureof competition in the duty-free market, and to the tax levelson high-street sales in different countries. The existence ofduty-free trade requires that countries have reasons both toadmit duty-free goods and to permit their sale to departingpassengers. We argue that low-tax countries might be more likelyto perceive gains from unilateral abolition of duty-free salesto departing passengers, while high-tax countries would onlybenefit from concerted action to abolish duty-free. (JEL D4,H2, H87)     

EU Enlargement, Migration and the New Constitution

The paper deals with the effects of migration resulting fromEU Eastern enlargement on the welfare states of Western Europe.Although migration is good in principle, as it yields gainsfrom trade and specialization for all countries involved, itdoes so only if it meets with flexible labour markets and ifit is not artificially induced by gifts of the welfare state.This is not the present state of affairs in Western Europe.In addition to measures that make labour markets more flexible,the introduction of delayed integration of working migrantsand the home country principle for nonworking migrants is arational reaction of the state. The proposed new EU constitution,which contains far-reaching rules for a European social union,should be amended accordingly. (JEL E2, F2, H0, J3, J6)     

Europe on the Road to Doha: Towards a New Global Trade Round?

This paper reviews progress towards a new trade agreement underthe Doha Development Agenda. A hitherto-unnoticed empiricalregularity suggests that post-Cancun pessimism may be unwarranted.Some of the key contentious issues are examined, including agriculturaland manufacturing trade barriers, competition policy and intellectualproperty rights. A potential sticking point is whether the USwill accept a quasijudicial role for the WTO and constraintson anti-dumping policy. European governments need to decidehow badly they want to complete a new trade agreement, and shouldstart preparing their constituents for compromise if an agreementis to be reached. (JEL F13)     

Computation and the Theory of Customs Unions

This paper reports on research that uses computational techniquesto assess whether or not various propositions that have beenadvanced as plausible in the literature on the theory of customsunions actually hold. This research blends theory and numericalsimulation to get insights into the likelihood that\ varioustheoretical propositions proposed in the customs union literaturehold. (JEL F10, F13, F15}     

Persistent demi-regs and robust tendencies: critical realism and the Singer-Prebisch Thesis

Debate about whether the terms of trade for primary productsrelative to manufactures have a tendency to deteriorate hasbeen ongoing for half a century. The phenomenon itself providesan example of a persistent contrastive demi-regularity. Thisis viewed as the result of a robust tendency, understood asan enduring and pervasive characteristic effect generated bya powerful and stable underlying causal mechanism. On this basis,the key problem for primary products lies in the biologicallimits on consumption, to which may be added capitalism-specifictendencies affecting processes of production and distribution.The paper concludes by arguing that the relevant holistic generictendency under capitalism involves a long-term contraction inthe primary product share of world trade.     

Global inequality and international trade

The paper analyses the effect of widespread trade liberalisationon global income inequality. The analysis of the trend in globalinequality during 1981–97, presented in the first partof the paper, shows that the apparent growth of income inequalityamong countries conceals a process of convergence. Some developingcountries achieved significantly faster economic growth thanthe advanced industrialised countries and, though small in number,they actually account for a majority of the population of thedeveloping world. Thus international inequality (i.e., the inequalityof distribution of per capita incomes among the world's population)in fact declined even though the inter-country income inequalityincreased. The analysis in the second part of the paper shows(i) that while improved trade performance did have a stimulatingeffect on growth performance of countries, trade liberalisationhad extremely varied effects on trade performance across countries,and (ii) that the distribution of benefits and costs of tradeliberalisation across countries has been such as to reduce internationalinequality without affecting inter-country inequality.     

Educating Europe: Should Public Education be Financed with Graduate Taxes or Income-contingent Loans?

The mobility of labor reduces national incentives to investin internationally applicable education. The European Unioncould overcome this by allowing member states to institute graduatetaxes or income-contingent loans, collected also from migrants.Graduate taxes or income-contingent loans result in higher welfarethan financing education with employment-based taxes. (JEL H24,H52, I28, F22)     

Welfare Migration: Is the Net Fiscal Burden a Good Measure of its Economic Impact on the Welfare of the Native-Born Population?

Migration of young workers (as distinct from retirees), evenwhen driven in by the generosity of the welfare state, slowsdown the trend of increasing dependency ratio. But, even thoughlow-skill migration improves the dependency ratio, it neverthelessburdens the welfare state. Recent studies by Smith and Edmonston(1977), and Sinn et al. (2003) comprehensively estimate thefiscal burden that low-skill migration imposes on the fiscalsystem. However an important message of this paper is that inan infinite-horizon set-up, one cannot fully grasp the implicationsof migration for the welfare state, just by looking at the netfiscal burden that migrants impose on the fiscal system. Inan infinite-horizon, overlapping generations economy, this netburden, could change to net gain to the native born population.(JEL F22, H3, J10)     

Microdata analysis of the consequences of free trade port policy: the case of Iran free zones

ABSTRACT

Creating free trade zones as a policy to motivate new investment and improve the local economic indicators might be of some benefits. Following of this policy in Iranian major port, however, resulted vice versa by aggravating the current account balance that is higher imports and the same horizon diminished export sums. We derive the micro data of trade for the Iranian major Imam port according to code arrangements of harmonic system (HS), which permits the clustering of different goods categories. Then we extracted the sums of survey data for the years before and after Imam port became free trade zone and applied fixed effect difference in difference (DID) method to capture the heterogeneity of unobserved variables. Our control port of analysis was Rajaee port the policy did not implemented. Results show that just as Imam free port’s Current Account Balance deteriorated by increasing import and dampening of export sums.     

Harmonisation of Old-age Security Within the European Union

Not sufficiently harmonised national pension systems withinthe European Union distort the allocation of labour and endangerredistributive activities. This paper identifies the most decentralisedlevel of harmonisation which guarantees efficient allocationand enables redistribution. For this, we build on theoreticalresults from the literature to evaluate the realised distributionof the legal power between the European Union and the MemberStates and the resulting level of harmonisation. We find thatharmonisation is sub-optimally low. Binding rules guaranteedby the European Union are needed implying that the Member Stateshave to concede more fundamental responsibilities to the EuropeanUnion. (JEL F22, H55, K33, N34)     

National Labor Market Institutions and the EU Integration Process

This paper outlines theoretical insights regarding the motivationand effects of labor market institutions, and reviews empiricalstudies of relevant evidence from European and other countries'historical experience. Institutional interference with laissezfaire labor market outcomes has both economic and distributionalimplications, which depend on the structure of markets and onthe details of policy implementation. The resulting conceptualframework is brought to bear on a discussion of possible reformsof European labor markets in the context of the Economic andMonetary Union process. (JEL F02, J00)     

The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism

Using a detailed data set at the tariff line level, we find an emulator effect of multilateralism on subsequent regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the USA. We exploit the variation in the frequency with which the US grants immediate duty free access (IDA) to its RTA partners across tariff lines. A key finding is that the US grants IDA status especially on goods for which it has cut the multilateral most favored nation (MFN) tariff during the Uruguay Round the most. Our results suggest that the Uruguay Round multilateral “concessions” have elicited subsequent preferential trade liberalization.     

Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers in EMU: A Conflict between Efficiency and Stabilisation?

It is often claimed that tax and welfare reforms that aim atenhancing efficiency may come at the cost of cyclical stabilisation.Reducing the generosity of welfare systems and lowering taxesmay boost efficiency and output, and improve market adjustmentto shocks. But, by reducing the size of automatic stabilisers,it may also imply less cyclical smoothing. This would be unwelcomein EMU given the loss of national monetary autonomy and thewell-known pitfalls of active fiscal management. This paperargues that the alleged trade-off between efficiency/flexibilityand stabilisation may not exist. We show that, if the initiallevel of the tax burden is high, reducing it may lead to higheroutput stabilisation in the event of a supply shock and higherinflation stabilisation in the event of a demand shock. Simulationsshow that European countries - especially small ones - mighthave a tax burden close to or even higher than the thresholdlevel. (JEL E52, E61, F42)     

Networks of Free Trade Agreements among Heterogeneous Countries

The paper examines the formation of free trade agreements as a network formation game. We consider an n‐country model in which international trade occurs between economies with imperfectly competitive product markets. In each country, the labor market is either unionized or non‐unionized. We show that, if all countries are non‐unionized, the global free trade network is both the unique pairwise stable network and the unique efficient network. If all countries are unionized, the global free trade network is pairwise stable and the unique efficient network among the class of symmetric networks. If some countries are unionized while others are non‐unionized, other networks apart from the global free trade network may be pairwise stable. However, the efficient network is still the global free trade network. Thus, a conflict between stability and efficiency may occur. Moreover, starting from the network in which no country has signed a free trade agreement, all sequences of networks due to continuously profitable deviations do not lead (in most cases) to the global free trade network, even when global free trade is stable.     

The debate over grain in the 1750s. A cliometric point of view

Abstract

During the 1750s the grain debate agitated French opinion and contributed to the creation of the new science of political economy. It was notable as a confrontation between those who defended the regulation of commerce and partisans of free trade. In this paper we test some of the arguments made at that time, using cliometric techniques which we apply to existing data as well as to new, reconstituted data.     

Accounting for Stability

There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in businesscycle volatility seen in many major economies over the lastdecade. Using stylised models of the economies of the US, Euroarea, UK and Japan, we argue that economic stability has beenfostered by improved monetary policy and by associated changesin the behaviour of inflation, which has itself led to a reductionin the volatility of economic shocks. Our projections suggestthat a number of major economies could continue to enjoy anunusual degree of stability, granted average luck and currentinstitutions. (JEL E3, E52, F01)     

All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century

This paper presents estimates of world output growth from 1970to 2000, the distribution of income among countries and personsfor the years 1980, 1990 and 2000, and world income povertyrates for the same years. It also presents the results of aseries of simulation exercises that attempt to isolate the effectof particular country and regional experiences on world outputgrowth and changes in global income inequality and poverty. The authors find that rapid growth in China (despite a downwardadjustment of official growth estimates) had a powerful impacton the growth of world output in both the 1980s and 1990s, butthat negative economic growth in Eastern Europe more than offsetthat effect in the 1990s. With respect to the distribution ofworld income between countries, the impressive growth performancesof the worlds most populous countries, China and India, ensureddecreasing levels of inequality during both the 1980s and 1990s.When the distribution of world income between persons is measured,the equalizing effect of China's rapid growth remains dominantthrough both the 1980s and 1990s, despite the contradictoryimpact of increasing domestic inequality. Only India's influenceremained substantial by comparison. Other identifiable eventsof the period, such as the economic contraction in Eastern Europeand continued economic decline in Africa, had little statisticalimpact. However, when the combined influence of China and India'sabove-average growth rates is removed, or their size effectdampened, the improving global distribution of (inter-countryand inter-personal) income suggested by all statistical measuresbecomes one of sharply worsening inequality. The impact of thesetwo countries is similarly critical with respect to global povertyreduction. (JEL F0, I3, O4)     

On the growth and welfare effects of monopolistic distortions

The most fundamental proposition about growth and competition is that there is a tradeoff between static welfare and long-term growth. This paper reconsiders this basic proposition in an expanding variety endogenous growth model with competitive markets for “old” innovative products and for a traditional good. We shed light on some implications of monopolistic distortions which tend to be ignored by standard models. First, no growth may be better than some growth, since modest positive growth potentially requires sizeable static welfare losses. Second, the economy may converge to a steady state with zero growth, even though a locally saddle-point stable steady state with positive growth exists if the initial share of “cheap” competitive markets is sufficiently high, as this implies a relatively low demand for “expensive” innovative goods. Third, such a “no-growth trap” may happen in a world economy made up of several countries engaged in free trade with each other. The policy implications are that growth-enhancing policies may be misguided and that quick deregulation as well as quick trade liberalization can lead to stagnation in the long term.      

Existence of equilibrium in the Helpman–Krugman model of international trade with imperfect competition

Helpman and Krugman (Market structure and foreign trade. Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, 1985) provide a synthesis of the traditional factor proportions theory of international trade and the theory of international trade due to the exploitation of scale economies in imperfectly competitive markets. They derive illuminating results about trade patterns and gains from trade, among other things, leaving unanswered the question of existence of equilibrium, however. The central significance of their characterization of properties of free trade equilibria with inter-industry and intra-industry trade calls for an analysis of existence of equilibrium. This is the object of the present paper. We prove the existence of equilibrium for the integrated multi-sector multi-factor Helpman–Krugman economy without national borders. Well-known conditions ensure that the world economy under free trade reproduces this equilibrium and thus establishes existence of a free trade equilibrium. Since an equilibrium of the integrated economy is not necessarily unique, the same holds true for a free trade equilibrium.