Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries

Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of aid oftenconcentrate on short-run Dutch disease effects, ignoring thepossible supply-side impact of aid-financed public expenditure.In the simple model of aid and public expenditure presentedhere, public infrastructure generates an intertemporal productivityspillover, which may exhibit a sector-specific bias. The modelalso provides for a learning-by-doing externality, through whichtotal factor productivity in the tradable sector is an increasingfunction of past export volumes. An extended computable versionof this model is used to simulate the effect of a step increasein net aid flows. The simulations show that beyond the shortrun, when conventional demand-side Dutch disease effects arepresent, the relationship between enhanced aid flows and realexchange rates, output growth, and welfare is less straightforwardthan simple models of aid suggest. Public infrastructure investmentthat generates a productivity bias in favor of nontradable productiondelivers the largest aggregate return to aid, but at the costof a deterioration in the income distribution. Income gainsaccrue predominantly to skilled and unskilled urban households,leaving the rural poor relatively worse off. Under plausibleparameterizations of the model, the rural poor may also be worseoff in absolute terms.     

Migration and Social Replacement Incomes: How to Protect Low-Income Workers in the Industrialized Countries Against the Forces of Globalization and Market Integration

This paper discusses how an industrialized country could defend the living standard of its unskilled workers against the wage competition from immigrants. It shows that fixing social replacement incomes implies migration into unemployment. Defending wages with replacement incomes brings about first order efficiency losses that approximate the budget cost of the government. By contrast, wage subsidies involve much smaller welfare losses. While the exclusion of migrants from a national wage replacement program does not avoid the distortions in labor migration, the (temporary) exclusion of migrants from a national wage subsidy program makes it possible to reach the first best migration pattern despite the preservation of the welfare state.JEL Code: F15, F22, I38, H5, J61     

美国跨国公司在避税地或低税国的投资趋势

据美国商务部调查,美国的跨国公司1 998年在其缴纳所得税税率不足10%的11个国家和地区拥有资产为5000亿美元.这些资产约为美国跨国公司境外投资总额的14%.此外,美国的跨国公司还在8个实际税率在10%到20%的国家和地区拥有近4000亿美元的资产.     

OECD国家消除经济性双重征税的经验及借鉴

公司所得税和个人所得税并存,越然引起对股息的经济性双重征税。目前,少数国家坚持传统的古典制,绝大部分OECD国家都将公司所得税与个人所得税结合,消除或减缓经济性双重征税。我国长期以来实行的古典制已经开始改变,将朝着逐渐实现公司所得税与个人所得税一体化的方向转变。     

实质性减税的效应分析:基于防范化解重大经济风险视角

当前,我国正处于经济结构调整和发展阶段转换的关键时期,防范化解重大经济风险是基本要求,实质性减税是重要改革措施。通过分析我国面临的重大经济风险和实质性减税的主要内容,可以发现实质性减税具有良好的防范化解重大经济风险的效应。更好发挥实质性减税的效应,需要筑牢财政基础,打通激励循环,做好跟踪优化。     

国外反倾销中对我国"非市场经济国家"身份的认定

反倾销已成为我国扩大出口的一个突出问题.西方一些国家一直认为中国是"非市场经济国家",从而在反倾销调查中以"替代国"价格来确定中国出口产品的正常价值,使中国的产品被认定有较高的倾销幅度,在仲裁时被征以高额反倾销税.针对这种不利局面,我国应采取如下应对策略:加强社会主义市场经济体制建设;通过政府间的双边谈判,尽早争取被给予中国市场经济国家地位;加强世贸组织中的相关法规的研究;选择最有利于我国的替代国;利用WTO争端解决机制来维护自身利益;建立健全中国的反倾销法体系等.     

后危机时代我国经济刺激计划退出问题研究

随着第二季度欧元区最大的两个经济体—法国和德国的经济恢复增长,经济刺激政策的退出问题摆到了欧元区各国决策者面前,同时也引发世界主要经济体对经济刺激政策退出的热议。基于各国目前经济复苏状况,本文从退出依据、退出时机以及退出路径三个方面对经济刺激政策的退出策略进行了比较研究。并提出了我国的退出政策走向,如“国退民进”的投资政策倾斜;货币政策与财政政策有机配合,安全退出;引导地方政府的基础设施建设等。     

经济衰退前G7各国劳动力系统生产率的实证分析

本文运用DEA评价方法以评价经济衰退前(1997-2007年期间)G7发达国家的劳动力系统生产率(效率)。研究发现:(1)1997-2007年期间G7发达国家劳动力系统生产率(效率)下降造成了经济衰退。(2)G7发达国家按大洲编组的劳动力系统生产率(效率)存在显著差异,较有效率的国家是美国、加拿大、日本。文章最后给出结论并提出建议:(1)未来可进一步创新DEA模型以分析各国劳动力系统生产率(效率);(2)经济衰退中的G7各国应高度关注国家劳动力系统生产率(效率)的研究,加强国际比较和学习。     

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Cleaning Up Superfund Sites: The Case of Woburn,Massachusetts

Superfund was established in 1980 to deal with closed and abandoned hazardous waste sites. Given the large amounts of money being spent on cleanups of Superfund sites, one might hope that the money is being spent in a cost-effective manner, but there is little evidence that the estimated benefits from cleanup affect the cleanup decision. We apply the hedonic method to house prices to estimate the individual willingness to pay (WTP) to clean up a Superfund site. We then show how the individual WTP can be used to calculate the total benefits from cleaning up the site so that a cost-benefit analysis of Superfund cleanup can be undertaken. We apply our technique to the two Superfund sites in Woburn, Massachusetts. We find that the benefits from cleaning up these sites are in the range of $72 million to $122 million (1992 dollars). It is likely that these benefits are greater than the present value of the estimated costs of cleaning up these sites. Thus it appears that the cleanup of the Woburn Superfund sites results in positive net benefits to society.     

浅析发达国家循环经济法的构建及对我国的启示

环境的污染和破坏已严重威胁人类的自身安全。日本、德国、美国、瑞典等发达国家把发展循环经济、建立循环型社会视为实施可持续发展战略的重要途径,并以配套的法律制度作为支撑。发达国家的经验对我国发展循环经济、实现循环经济立法具有重要的借鉴意义。     

欧盟东扩对发展中国家的经济影响

欧盟东扩所带来的贸易转移效果和欧盟对外援助方向的改变使非、加、太发展中国家成为直接受害者，同时它也标志着欧盟对发展中国家的经济政策已开始摆脱带有原殖民体系痕迹的模式而进入“后殖民体系”时期。一旦中东欧国家在21世纪初成为欧盟正式成员，亚洲发展中国家也将在欧盟市场上面临严峻的挑战。     

金融市场与经济发展--论发展中国家企业集团的形成机制

企业集团是发展中国家的常见现象.许多学者运用新制度学派的企业理论来解释发展中国家企业集团的形成,将其归为市场不完善的结果.这种一般化的解释忽略了发展中国家企业集团形成的特殊性.发展中国家企业集团是在家族企业的基础上发展起来的.金融市场分割和资本绝对短缺为家族企业向企业集团转化奠定了社会经济基础,工业化发展战略和政府--银行--企业连结关系则直接导致了企业集团的形成.     

内蒙古经济高增长下低就业问题的研究

近年来,内蒙古自治区经济取得长足发展实现了历史性跨越。然而,内蒙古经济的高速增长并没有带来就业的同步协调增加。这一问题如不认真解决,将制约内蒙古经济社会可持续发展。本文立足内蒙古实际,分析了内蒙古经济高速增长与低就业的现状及其成因,提出了有针对性的措施与建议。     

商业银行促进我国低碳经济发展的战略

在全球日趋变暖,恶劣天气频出的今天,低碳金融、低碳经济,寻求低碳发展无疑成为关注的焦点,而低碳金融的发展在其中无疑起着关键之作用,为解析低碳金融,中国民生银行资产管理部特作此课题以图解析。     

拉美和东亚国家(地区)在东亚金融危机后的经济恢复比较

1997～1998年的东亚金融危机给世界经济带来了巨大冲击,尤其是对东亚和拉美新兴市场国家和地区的经济造成了很大的破坏作用。本文试图对这两个区域危机后的经济恢复情况进行比较。首先,通过主成分分析法对16个国家和地区危机后6年的宏观经济指标进行了综合评估,实证结果表明,危机后的恢复程度存在着较大的差异和地域特征。接着本文对可能导致各国在危机后经济恢复差异的原因进行了实证研究,发现经济发展模式、储蓄率和外债负担等对原因的解释力较强。最后,本文对实证结果的政策含义进行了阐述。     

The Provision of Company Benefits in the UK

Abstract:   A theoretical analysis argues that a company will provide benefits if they are worth more to the employee than income equal to the net amount it is costing the firm to provide the benefit. Because the individual is being denied choice, other things being equal he/she would prefer the income. But the firm may be able to provide a benefit‐wage package which compensates the individual because of (i) tax advantages, (ii) economies of scale in purchasing or (iii) production function advantages. The empirical work focuses on benefit provision in the UK.     

Effects of Restraining Steel Exports from the Republic of Korea and Other Countries to the United States and the European Economic Community

In this article a model is developed to evaluate the impacton an exporting country of a restraint imposed on its exportby an importing economy in the context of a three-region modelof world trade in a single product. The welfare changes in anyof the three regions in the model and in the global economycan be evaluated. The model is applied to the restraints imposed on steel exportsfrom the Republic of Korea to the United States and the EuropeanEconomic Community (EEC). The United States and the EEC arefound to have incurred significant losses as a result of therestraints. The largest part of these losses are quota rentstransferred to Korea and the rest of the world. Under reasonableparameter assumptions, Korea and the rest of the world obtainnet gains from the quotas, because the resource misallocationcosts are smaller than the quota rents. The model is modified to analyze a tariff barrier rather thana quantitative restraint. It is found that an "equivalent" tariffon steel transforms Korea and the rest of the world from netgainers to net losers as a result of a restraint.     

Birth of the Federal Reserve: Crisis in the womb

The outbreak of World War I shut the New York Stock Exchange for more than 4 months. The conventional explanation maintains that the closure prevented a collapse in stock prices that threatened a repetition of the Panic of 1907. This paper shows that the Wilson Administration encouraged the suspension of trading to pave the way for launching the Federal Reserve System, which was in the process of being born. Federal Reserve insiders considered an adequate stock of gold crucial to the success of the new monetary system. Closing the Exchange helped to forestall an outflow of gold. Central bankers can learn how crisis control is supposed to work from the 1914 experience.     

国外城镇化立法特点

以科学、完善的法律体系促进和规制城镇化发展,是现代法制国家的共同特征。这个法律体系包括税法、环境法、房地产法、行政许可法等多个部门法,其中,发挥核心主干作用的是城乡（城市）规划法。目前,所能查阅到的最早的一部国家级城市规划法,是1874年瑞典制定的《城市规划法》,它开创了城镇规划核心法的先例。目前,各国城乡规划法的名称有所不同。例如德国称之为《建设法典》,英国称之为《城乡规划法》,法国的第一部城市规划核心法称为《城市规划法》,日本则称为《都市计画法》,我国则命名为《城乡规划法》。