房地产项目投资风险评价研究

本文在对房地产项目投资风险进行分析研究的基础上，提出了房地产项目投资风险评价指标体系，构建出房地产项目投资风险评价的梯阶层次结构模型，并用层次分析法对房地产项目投资风险进行了综合评价。     

基于IFAHP的房地产企业投资风险评价

房地产企业投资是一个高风险行业,为避免投资失误,提高决策水平,进行房地产企业投资风险评价具有一定的理论和实践意义。针对房地产企业投资风险的复杂性和不确定性,在借鉴近期国内有关房地产企业投资风险相关研究和分析基础上,利用问卷调查法对投资风险因素进行了识别,构建了风险评价指标体系,并采用改进模糊层次分析法对风险指标体系进行了评价分析,从理论上找出影响房地产企业投资的关键风险因素,为房地产企业投资风险评价提供了较为合理的参考依据,使投资决策更为科学。     

房地产投资风险管理

对房地产投资开发过程中所存在的各种风险进行了分析,运用数学和概率统计的知识,分析了衡量房地产投资风险大小的几种方法,并提出了针对各种潜在风险的规避与控制措施。     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

新形势下企业投资风险与防范以房地产企业为例

风险管理的意义不仅在于风险预测,而且在于通过科学的分析,合理的鉴别,拟订预防风险的措施。有效地控制风险不仅会降低风险发生的可能性、减少不必要的损失,还可以科学合理的应对已经发生的风险事件,进而降低风险损失。研究钢材消费的重要领域房地产企业投资风险与防范,分析房地产公司投资风险的分类和指标,选取F地产为研究对象,对实际调查中搜集到的相关数据进行处理,并在此基础上分析房地产投资风险的现状,而后分别制定了权衡投资收益与风险,优化负债结构提高资金周转率,坚持多元化投资战略,合理确定负债率和融资结构的应对措施,确保企业投资利益得到保障。     

房地产投资项目融资风险的灰色模糊评判研究

房地产投资项目的融资风险问题具有灰色性(信息不完全)和模糊(概念不明确)性。考虑到灰色性和模糊性的影响，采用适用性更广的灰色模糊多级综合评判理论，对房地产投资项目融资风险的多级指标体系进行综合评判，可以有效地、全面地和系统地评价房地产投资项目融资风险的大小，为项目融资项目决策提供准确依据。     

基于现代投资组合理论的房地产投资优化组合模型

房地产业的迅猛发展对房地产投资理论提出了新的要求，传统的投资决策方法由于其存在的固有缺陷已不能适应新形势，本文借鉴现代投资组合理论建立了一套房地产投资优化组合决策模型，该模型根投资的偏好突出了风险－收益这个中心，基本上反映了实际情况。     

房地产投资决策风险分析

房地产投资是以预测未知的将来需求而将货币和其他资源投入房地产综合开发、经营、管理和服务等活动中的一种投资行为,以期在将来获得不确定的收益,这决定了不确定性是其特有属性,如何防范、规避和控制风险便成为房地产开发企业生死攸关的问题。投资决策阶段是整个开发过程中直接关系到建设项目的成败,对开发商的经济效益和社会效益都具有现实和深远的影响。在房地产开发初始时,开发商拥有最大的不确定性和机动性,随着开发建设项目的进行,房地产开发商对可能发生的结果就知之愈多,不确定因素随之减少,风险因素逐步降低。同时,开发…     

王帅：分散可以降低风险

在中国市场，政策风险依然是最经常及影响最大的系统风险之一，因此只有趋利避害。国外的基金在相对成熟的市场环境中都无法跑赢指数，分散风险是保持投资组合稳定安全的最关键理念。     

对投资组合理论分散化投资缺陷的探讨

投资组合就是将资金分散地投资于多个证券资产,以减少投资风险。1952年美国经济学家马柯维茨在《投资组合的选择》一文中提出均值-方差证券的现代投资组合理论。在证券市场上,对于机构投资者,面临着如何提高投资收益和降低投资风险的问题。从已有研究结果来看,在证券市场上当组合数量增加到一定程度后,组合收益的变动范围基本上保持不变甚至会转而下降。根据现代投资组合理论,投资组合只能降低非系统风险,而无法降低系统风险。从我国证券市场面临的风险来看,即使投资者持有一个与市场完全相同的投资组合,但是无法规避系统风险,持有一个完全的市场组合仍会面临比较大的投资风险。     

对发展房地产投资基金的SWOT分析

通过对房地产资金来源及我国房地产目前的融资途径分析,揭示了目前我国房地产存在的金融风险,指出发展房地产投资基金是一种可以拓宽房地产融资渠道的途径。结合当前我国房地产市场的实际情况,使用SWOT分析办法对房地产投资基金进行了综合研究。     

Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations

We examine how the predictability of real estate returns affects the risk of, and optimal allocations to, real estate for investors of differing investment horizons. Returns to direct real estate are mean reverting, and risk decreases with horizon. This is driven by a tendency for property transaction prices to overshoot inflation. Mean reversion in real estate returns is weaker than that of equities, resulting in real estate having similar risk to equities for long-term investors. However, optimal portfolios have large allocations to direct real estate at all horizons, and the allocation increases with horizon. Finally, we find that real estate investment trusts are a redundant asset class for investors with access to direct real estate as an asset class, but they do have a role in optimal allocations when direct property investment is not feasible.     

Real Estate Fund Openings and Cannibalization

This article examines the trade‐offs in launching new real estate funds, specifically open‐end, direct‐property funds. This investment vehicle, which is designed to provide the risk‐return benefits of private market real estate, is available to retail investors in a number of countries. At the same time, these funds are also subject to liquidity risk, because they hold an inherently illiquid asset in an open‐end structure. This format presents fund‐family managers with unique challenges, particularly with the decision to open new funds. The data consist of 2,127 German fund openings across 76 fund families in 12 asset classes over the 1992–2010 period. Including a wide range of asset classes allows for a comparison between real estate and other investment objectives. We find a substantial cannibalization effect across the existing real estate funds of a family, while we note the opposite effect—i.e., flows into existing funds increase following a fund opening within the same objective—for all other asset classes. Our analysis of fund opening determinants shows that inflows mitigate the cannibalization risk for new real estate funds. Additional evidence highlights the role of scale and scope economies in real estate fund openings. Overall, the results provide new insights into the relatively large size and small number of real estate funds when compared to mutual funds dedicated to other investment objectives.     

Product Market Competition and Corporate Real Estate Investment under Demand Uncertainty

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes the interactions among corporate real estate investment, product market competition and firm risk. In our model, firms own strategic real estate or lease generic real estate. Our model predicts that strategic real estate ownership is positively correlated with industry concentration and negatively related to demand uncertainty. Also, firm risk is higher for firms with more strategic real estate operating in a more concentrated market. This prediction arises because smaller investments induce greater market competition, which effectively eliminates the right tail of the firm's profit distribution. We provide strong empirical support for our predictions. In particular, firm value is more volatile in less competitive markets for a given level of demand uncertainty.     

对我国发展房地产投资信托的思考

我国房地产正出于飞速发展时期，巨大的投资需要造成了庞大的融资需求，而近来房地产信贷门槛的提高导致房地产融资成本提高。房地产行业迫切需要银行外的融资渠道，以解决开发和经营的资金问题。从房地产投资信托定义和基本原则入手，将房地产投资信托与其他融资方式进行比较，分析其优势，探讨其运营模式，并提出相关建议。     

Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns

This paper estimates the systematic risk (or "beta") of unsecuritized investment grade commercial real estate, as represented by the FRC and PRISA indices of institutional real estate holdings. Systematic risk defined with respect to national consumption is compared to systematic risk defined with respect to the stock market. Also, the risk estimates are explicitly adjusted to account for "smoothing" in appraisal-based aggregate level returns data. The systematic risk of these real estate indices appears to be virtually zero with respect to the stock market, even after correcting for smoothing, but substantially positive with respect to national consumption.     

Further Evidence on the Performance of Funds of Funds: The Case of Real Estate Mutual Funds

Funds of funds (FOFs) are created when investment companies invest in other investment companies. Although the additional layer of fees incurred by FOFs has a negative effect on returns, there is empirical evidence that real estate FOFs generate superior performance net of fees and risk adjustments. The evidence is inconsistent with a growing consensus that most actively managed mutual funds do not, on average, generate excess returns after adjusting for fees and risk. This study explains this apparent contradiction and finds that most real estate FOFs do not outperform their benchmarks under alternative risk adjustment specifications.     

Another Take on Real Estate's Role in Mixed‐Asset Portfolio Allocations

This article examines real estate's role in institutional mixed‐asset portfolios using both private‐ and public‐real estate indices, as a means of examining varying real estate‐related risk/return opportunities. In so doing, this article also examines the effects of: (1) increasing the investment horizon, (2) placing constraints on the maximum allocation to any one asset class, and (3) varying the risk preferences of investors. The empirical results suggest—using infinite‐horizon returns and all of the caveats that accompany such a perspective—that real estate allocations of approximately 10–15% of the mixed‐asset portfolio represent an upper bound for most investors. For those investors preferring low‐risk portfolios, (unlevered) private real estate is the vehicle serving this allocation preference; for those investors preferring high‐risk portfolios, public real estate (with its embedded leverage of 40–50%) is the vehicle serving this allocation preference—with such vehicles serving as substitutes for a variety of noncore real estate strategies. In some sense, the distinction between private and public real estate is more about the use of leverage. For those investors preferring moderate‐risk portfolios, an intermediate‐leverage approach seems optimal.     

Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon

In this article, three oft‐mentioned special characteristics of the real estate asset market—high transaction costs, marketing period risk and return predictability—are addressed in analyzing the role of U.K. commercial real estate investments in a mixed‐asset portfolio. Due to favorable horizon effects in risk and return, the allocation to real estate in a portfolio with stocks, bonds and cash increases strongly with the investment horizon. Examining the relative importance of return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk for the optimal allocation to real estate, the article finds that the consideration of return predictability is very important, except for short‐term horizons. Accounting for transaction costs is crucial for short‐ and medium‐term investors. Marketing period risk appears to be negligible. Traditional mean‐variance analysis—that is, ignoring return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk—can be very misleading.